Primary Energy Consumption per Capita [Watt/Capita]

The Vision of a 2000-Watt Society:

An Energy-Economic Analysis for Switzerland

S. Kypreos, Th. Schulz and A. Wokaun

PSI-LEA

Switzerland

The vision of the 2000-Watt society

novatlantis

Research questions

η ^Bio-SNG = 0.55 η ^Heat = 0.10

• How much can the primary-energy per capita consumption be lowered until 2050?

• What are the cost-optimal technical choices until 2050?

• Will energy-related CO ₂ emissions reduce substantially?

• What are the costs and the Welfare losses of reducing

the primary energy and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP ?

Methodology: The tool

Swiss-MARKAL is a bottom-up perfect-foresight partial- equilibrium engineering model able to:

• identify least-cost energy systems across time

• and cost-effective responses to restrictions on emissions and primary energy constraints

• perform prospective analysis of long-term energy balances under different scenarios

• evaluate new technologies

• evaluate the effects of regulations, taxes, and subsidies

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000

191 0

1915 1920 192 5

1930 1935 194 0

1945 1950 1955

1960 1965 1970

1975 1980 1985

1990 1995 200 0

2005 2010 201 5

2020 2025 203 0

2035 2040 204 5

Primary Energy Consumption per Capi ta [Watt/Capita]

Literature & Baseline: Primary energy per capita

Literature values: BfE, BfS Baseline projection

CO ₂ emissions & imposed Constraints

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

his torical Data (BfE 2001) his torical Data (BfE 2001) no limit @ 75 US$2000/bbl 4.5 k W /Cap tar get 4.0 k W /Cap tar get 3.5 k W /Cap tar get 5% CO2 Reduc tion 10% CO2 Reduc tion 15% CO2 Reduc tion

1990 2000 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050

CO2 Em issions [Mt]

No further investments in Nuclear Power Stations

Primary energy per capita consumption

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

5.2 KW 4.9 kW 4.8 kW 4.5 kW 5.0 kW 5.0 kW 5.0 kW 5.0 kW 4.5 kW 4.5 kW 4.5 kW 4.5 kW 4.0 kW 4.0 kW 4.0 kW 4.0 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW

0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Prim ary Energy [ k W/Capita]

Renewables Hydro

Nuclear Natural Gas Oil

Coal

No limit

CO

reduction per decade 2010 - 2050 Primary Energy

per capita

target

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

50 US$2000 125 US$2000 50 US$2000 125 US$2000

5.2 kW 4.9 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW

0% 0% 10% 10%

Primary Energy [kW/Capit a ]

Renewables Hydro

Nuclear Natural Gas Oil

Coal

Primary energy per capita consumption (II)

No limit

CO

reduction per decade 2010 - 2050 Primary Energy

per capita target

Oil Price in 2050 - 42%

+ 46%

+ 12%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

No Limit 4.0 kW/CAP 4.0 kW/CAP 3.5 kW/CAP 3.5 kW/CAP 3.0 kW/CAP 3.5 kW/CAP

& 10% CO2

3.5 kW/CAP

& 10% CO2 Fixed DMD Fixed DMD Elastic DMD Fixed DMD Elastic DMD Elastic DMD Fixed DMD Elastic DMD

Primary Energy Consumption [PJ]

Renewables Hydro

Nuclear Natural Gas Oil

Coal

Primary energy per capita consumption (III)

comparison with Elastic Demands (ED)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

5.2 kW 4.9 kW 4.8 kW . 4.5 kW 5.0 kW 5.0 kW 5.0 kW 5.0 kW 4.5 kW 4.5 kW 4.5 kW 4.5 kW 4.0 kW 4.0 kW 4.0 kW 4.0 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW 3.5 kW

0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Electricity Production [TWh]

Solar Power Wind Turbines Biomass CHP Natural Gas CHP Biomass Thermal Natural Gas Thermal Nuclear Power Hydro Power

Electricity production

No limit

CO

reduction per decade 2010 - 2050 Primary Energy

per capita target 2005:

57,9 TWh

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

No kW/Cap target

No kW/Cap target

3.5 kW/Cap target

3.5 kW/Cap target

3.5 kW/Cap target

3.5 kW/Cap target 10 % red. 10 % red. No CO2 limit No CO2 limit 10 % red. 10 % red.

fossil eq. 100% eq. fossil eq. 100% eq. fossil eq. 100% eq.

El ectr icit y Pr oduct ion [TWh]

Solar Power Wind Turbines Biomass CHP Natural Gas CHP Biomass Thermal Natural Gas Thermal Nuclear Power

Hydro Power

Electricity production: 100% equivalent

CO

red u ctio n p er d e cade 2010 - 2 050 Primary e nerg y p er capita target

Renew a ble e nergy c o n version equ ivalent

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Final Ener gy Consumption [PJ]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Useful Energy Demand Reduction [PJ]

Other Heating Biomass Stoves District Heating Electrical Resistance Heat Pump Electric Gas Heating Oil Heating Energy Saving Measures

Residential heating: 3.5 kW/Cap

Useful Energy (Energy Demand) [TJ/a] =

Specific Room Heating Demand [MJ/m

] * Energy Reference Floor Area [Mio. m

]

Elastic DMD 3.0 kW/Cap

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Primary Energy Consumption [PJ]

Other Heating Biomass Stoves District Heating Electrical Resistance Heat Pump Electric Gas Heating Oil Heating

Residential heating: 3.0 kW/Cap ED

Passenger cars: 3.5 kW/Cap

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Final-Energy Consumption [PJ]

H2 Fuel Cell H2 Hybrid

Natural Gas Hybrid Gasoline Hybrid Gasoline ICE Diesel Hybrid Diesel ICE

ICE: Internal Combustion Engine

H2: Hydrogen

Elastic DMD 3.5 kW/Cap & -10% CO2

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Final Energy Consumption [PJ]

Natural Gas Hybrid Natural Gas ICE Gasoline ICE Diesel Hybrid Diesel ICE

Passenger cars: 3.5 kW/Cap & -10% CO2 ED

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

5.2 kW (No Limit) 4.9 kW (No Limit) 4.8 kW (No Limit) 4.5 kW (No Limit) 5.0 kW target 5.0 kW target 5.0 kW target 5.0 kW target 4.5 kW target 4.5 kW target 4.5 kW target 4.5 kW target 4.0 kW target 4.0 kW target 4.0 kW target 4.0 kW target 3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target

0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Discounted Additional S y stem Costs [bil lion CHF

]*

Total system costs

No limit

CO

re d u c ti o n p er d e cad e 2010 - 2 050

Primary E nerg y per capita target

Deadweight and Social Welfare Loss

Social Welfare Loss per GDP

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

3000 W/Cap 3500 W/Cap 4000 W/Cap 3500 W/Cap & -10% CO2

Undisc ounted Social Welfar e (in r e lation to GDP)

• The primary energy per capita consumption target of 2000 Watts per capita should be seen as a long-term goal. During the first half of the century only intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society can be achieved.

• All primary energy per capita consumption targets until 2050 can reduce CO ₂ emissions to an equivalent of 5%

per decade at maximum. For significant CO ₂ -emission reductions, targets must be formulated explicitly.

Conclusions

• This transformation is associated with sizeable costs.

Following ambitious combined primary energy per capita and CO ₂ targets is more expensive than following strict CO ₂ reduction targets.

• To achieve already intermediate steps requires a

transformation of the energy use as we know it today.

The transformation can be identified especially in the residential and transportation sectors. The production of electricity will increase substantially.

Conclusions (continued)