.
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
F i g u r e 7 . D i f f u s i o n o f p r o g r a m m a b l e i n d u s t r i a l r o b o t s i n n i n e c o u n t r i e s .
S o u r c e s : B e l j a n i n 1 9 7 5 , C o o p e r 1 9 8 0 , Yonemoto 1 9 7 8 , E n z e l b e r g e r 1 9 8 0 , S i m o n s 1 9 8 0 , World C a s t s 1 9 8 0 , P a e s s l e r e t a l . 1 9 7 7 , Y e a r b o o k o f L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s 1 9 8 0 .
where w = hourly wages relative to the FRG level in DM (German of hourly real wages of production workers in manufacturing. (Data on real wages are from the Statistical Abstract of the US 1974-1979).
Over a time period, this dependency becomes more stable because of the lower growth in both directions.
We can now further develop our formula for robot development.
The logarithm of (4) is:
--
number of production workers-
range of application overestimation. Assumii..g that the trends of the last five years con- tinue we get:Table 9 shows the time lags or leads of countries in comparison with the US for 1975, 1980, and 1985.
Table 9. National time-lags or time-leads (-) in the diffusion of pro- grammable industrial robots (PIR) in comparison with the US.
Country 1975 1980 1975 (forecast)
US 0 0 0
Let us look a t the results of our investigation. Although the data are scattered, we can compare the different countries and get an interesting overview.
In terms of the relative diffusion rate, Sweden shows itself to be the most advanced country. But Sweden also shows a lower growth rates for the past five years. When measured by the diffusion rates, Japan and the US have nearly the same growth rates.
Japan is becoming the world leader in robot application, not only in terms of number of robots but also in relative terms, i.e., in relation to the national work force. Japan's secret is R.U.R.: Robots Unbagging Robots, again a realization of one idea of Karel Capek. In the firm FANUC (Fujitsu Automatic Numerical Control) three engineers and 70 robots produce 350 robots a month. The FANUC Corporation is typical for a n industry of the future: an industry pro- ducing means for Flexible Universal_Automation (FUA).
A s can be seen from the data, the diffusion rates slowed between
This would mean a growth rate of 36.3 per cent, which is more rea- sonable.
A second forecast is possible on the basis of formuIa (14). If one assumes for 1985 w = 110, and slightly other values for c and k, then one gets:
This would mean a growth rate of 22.9 per cent. Whle this seems rather high from the standpoint of real wages and the trends of the last five years, strong competition from the Japanese and the development of other factors might change the situation consider- ably. Perhaps our first attempt to measure robot diffusion could be the core of a learning system for analysis and forecasting.
0 Sweden Diffusion of Robots
300
Japan
200
1
R = 87.89 percent N = 8 (without Japan)20 --
.
France I40 50 100 150 w
Hourly wages in manufacturing, relative
Figure 8. Diffusion of robots a s a function of hourly wages (1978)
.
DIFFUSION RATE
F In -= -
- . ' l o 4 37.41 804557
+
0.387547361 3 w1 - F 1 - F
'
Figure 9. Diffusion o f robots as a function of hourly wages (US). (Source: US Statistical Abstract 1980.)
CHAPTER 5
ROBOTS m D NATIONAL INNOVATION POLI(TY: THE CASE OF THE GDR In t h e GDR economic strategy for t h e 1980s, the industrial robot is regarded as a basic innovation, which together with t h e biotechnologies, other basic innovations such a s microelectronics, and sources of energy such as nuclear power and coal liquefaction, will be decisive in building up a new level of productivity during the 1980s and 1990s.
An essential feature of basic innovations is t h a t they reward those who create and implement t h e m with increased productivity while punish- ing those who were unable t o recognize their potential for efficiency, or who were unable to use t h e m , by undermining their existing productivity level. National economic performance will very much depend on the abil- ity of basic innovations t o contribute to this new productivity level.
THE ROLE OF ROBOTS IN GDR ECONOMIC STRATEGY
In the GDR economic strategy for the 1980s, industrial robots a r e playing a n important role in efforts t o attain h g h productivity growth and reduce hard manual and unskilled work. The production and installation of industrial robots is a n integral p a r t of the program to improve labor conditions. For t h s program we must devise goals and rules for. t h e installation of robots.
Critical to the planning and management of robots as a n innovation is the relationshp between t h e implementation of robots and the develop- m e n t of socioeconomic efficiency. We must ask the same very critical questions about robots as we would ask about any other basic innovation:
1. What is their potential for increasing efficiency?
2. What is required economically and socially in order to use this potential for efficiency?
3. What are the technological alternatives to robots?
Clearly, robots are now a t the beginning of t h e rapid growth phase. If we look a t the predicted growth r a t e of robot installations from now until 1990 as they were quoted in Chapter 4, it would appear that we a r e approaching a "robot revolution". However, t h e r e have been many similar predictions during t h e last two decades, and yet the expected h g h diffu- sion rate has not occurred. Obviously conditions have not been conducive t o securing a dynamic efficiency above t h a t of other forms of automation and mechanization. If we a r e t o successfully forecast the future develop- m e n t of robots, it will be necessary to investigate the changes needed for t h e application of industrial robots and their influence on t h e develop- m e n t of t h e efficiency of robots.
During the next five years (1 981-1985), t h e installation of industrial robots will play a n important role in t h e economic strategy of the GDR.
The number of new robots is expected to double in each of these years.
It is hoped t h a t t h r e e main goals will be achieved by this rapid increase in robot application:
1. A higher level of automation in small and medi.um-sized produc- tion systems.
2. The creation of conditions prerequisite t o the implementation of other basic innovations.
3. A significant reduction of t h e share of heavy manual and unskilled labor.
INCREASING AUTOMATION LENELS IN SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Let us look a t t h e first of these three goals. 84.8% of production in t h e GDR mechanical engineering and v e h c l e industries and 75.2% of pro- duction i n the electr*ical and computer industries is currently being car- ried out on a small or medium scale basis. In t h e last decade, through t h e introduction of numerical-control machinery, it has become possible t o automate much of the manufacturing prbocess. But for the most p a r t , handling and transportation of working components and tools have not y e t been automated. The industrial robot holds great potential for integrating the main handling and auxiliary processes
.
In other words, t h e robot is not a n alternative to the existing types of automation. It represents a n important s t e p toward overcoming t h e bottlenecks hindering improved efficiency i n automation.
The industrial robot is an important result in a long chain in the development of manipulatory equipment incorporating the achevements of microelectronics and data processing. It is a key technology in current attempts to improve
the efficiency of the entire manufacturing system product quality
technological discipline and continuity in production.
In some enterprises in the GDR machne tool industry, the installation of robots has made it possible to release 50 to 70% of the working forces. branches, especially mechanical engineering production. Their lugh flexi- bility allows a reduction in the time needed to modify production systems to produce new products and the efficient production of these products on a small and medium scale. Analyses of GDR industry have shown that firms producing 1,000 to 100,000 units p e r year (accounting for more than 40% of all GDR enterprises) were unable to apply the traditional form of automation in a n efficient manner. Here the industrial robot has proved very important for promoting dynamic efficiency.
CREATING THE PRECONDITIONS FOR OTHER BASIC INNOVATIONS
With regard to the second main goal named above, it should be noted that the high employment-release effect helps to establish important preconditions for the implementation of basic innovations that have a high employment effect. This is especially true in the fields of energy, environment, and biotechnology. Normally, basic innovations have a high employment effect and a low efficiency effect in the first two phases of the relative efficiency cycle.
The industrial robot is one of the few basic innovations that continue to show relatively high employment-release and productivity effects in the second phase. This means that they are suitable for creating the preconditions for innovations with a high employment effect in the first phase of the relative efficiency cycle. This attribute is very important for the industrial strategy of the GDR. One of the strategic goals of the five year plan f o r 1981-1985 is to release the working time of 300,000 workers.
A quarter of this is to be achieved through the installation of industrial robots. Experience has shown that it is possible to release 1.4 to 3 work- ers per industrial robot, depending on the type of robot. These figures have been confirmed through studies in other countries (see Table 10). It has been estimated that in the GDR 40% of manual production work and 70% of assembly work could be reduced significantly through the use of industrial robots.
T a b l e 1 0 . J o b s u b s t i t u t i o n f a c t o r o f i n d u s t r i a l r o b o t s . automated industrial equipment in all industrial equipment increased sig- nificantly. Such branches as the chemical industry, the energy and fuel industries, the electrical industry, light industry, and t h e textile industry now have a share of automated equipment above 50%. The current trend in automation is toward a polarization of employment requirements. The number of jobs for skilled workers is increasing and a t the same time jobs with low skill requirements involving hard manual labor.
In Figure 11, w h c h shows a comparison of the technological costs of a welding robot in the GDR and the cost of manual welding, we can see that one important result of the application of robots is a reduction of labor costs (due to the high replacement effect). But fixed costs must also be taken into account. 'These are much higher for robot installation than for manual handling. Depending on the type of robot, they may be between 4 and 10 times t h e cost of manual working places. To compen- sate, normative efficiency achieved through the use of the robot must be much higher than where the normal capital investment is required (Schil- ling 1980).
E x i s t -
Needed E x i s t -
:
--
Needed E x i s t -Needed
Manual jobs P a r t l y mecha- F u l l y mecha- P a r t l y auto- F u l l y a u t o -
n i z e d jobs n i z e d jobs mated jobs mated jobs
s k i l l e d workers S e m i s k i l l e d workers Unskilled workers E x i s t - Needed
i na
F i g u r e 1 0 . E x i s t i n g and n e e d e d j o b q u a l i f i c a t i o n s t r u c t u r e s f o r p r o d u c t i o n w o r k e r s a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t ( i n p e r c e n t ) .
Costs per unit M/n
Mechanical
:.:.
m
RobotDepreciation Maintenance Wages Wire-gas Energy
Figure 1 1 . Comparison of the costs unit for the robot welding and C02 mechanical welding.
In the GDR, for the normal capital investment, the lowest efficiency normative is 6%; this means a return of the capital w i t h n 12 years. For robot installation the lowest efficiency normative is 35%; t h s means a capital return within 3 years. To secure t h s very high efficiency norma- tive, it is necessary to use the robots in 2 or 3 shifts.
A third important part of the robot's costs are variable and fixed peripheral .costs. The creation of the appropriate working environment for t h e robot incurs a great deal of additional expense, ranging from 50 to 100% of the fixed cost of installing the robot.
The benefits include quality improvement, reduced costs, increased continuity in production, and the labor-replaci-ng effect. The average cost for replacing one worker in the GDR economy is currently 100,000 marks.
If we consider that the cost of one welding robot is approximately 300,000 marks, and that it can replace 2 t o 3 workers per shift, we see that from the point-of-view of releasing labor forces, the robot is a very good invest- ment indeed.
THE NEW GENERATION OF ROBOTS
One can describe an innovation as the fusion of a relevant economic demand with a technological feasibility. From this standpoint, it is not difficult to foresee that the current generation of robots will soon approach its outer limits. Limitations upon the growth of robots can only be overcome with a new generation of robots. This new generation is urgently needed for automating assembly work. The present generation of robots must follow a fixed program; it will be incapable of learning from its specific working situation. The new generation of robots, on the other hand, is able to adapt to changing situations, as it will be equipped with tactile, visual, and/or acoustic senses.
In the GDR, this will be especially important for the mechanical engineering and vehicle industries, where more than 30% of the work is assembly work, and for the electrical and electronic industries, where more than 40% is assembly work. As only 1-2% of assembly work has been automated, this is likely to be an important area for the application of t h e second generation of robots.
The future of robots and the role they can play will very much depend on their ability to adopt improvement innovations, which in turn can help overcome the present barriers t o broader application of robots.
The demand for improved capabilities in industrial robots is very h g h . It is not yet clear whether the next generation of robots will be able to meet these requirements.
CHAPTER 6