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4 Wholesale gas markets and network access

4.4.1 Utilisation analysis of cross-border capacity

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continued to be subject to long-term capacity contracts. Long-term capacity bookings play an im-portant role in underwriting network investment decisions. However, when capacity is booked and

this contractual capacity congestion, is one of the main objectives of the Guidelines on Congestion Management Principles (CMP).

439 The ACER 2013 annual report on contractual congestion at interconnection points302 concluded that of European IPs were found to be contractually congested303 in at least one side in the last quarter of 2013. This was particularly the case in North-West Europe304, but was also observed in Central Eastern and Southern Europe.

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and utilised values are reasonably aligned. For different reasons, at other IPs, substantial differences exist between contractual values and actual utilisation305. The challenge is to ensure that unused capacity, whether or not strategically acquired, can and has to be easily returned to the market so that other shippers can use it.

441 This year, the Agency and CEER again analysed the issue of contractual congestion and physical

306. Representative IPs were se-differences between average contractual values and average physical utilisation rates were found,

-pated by shippers.

302 See:

Congestion%20Report%202014.pdf. Also, the CMP Comitology report raised this issue prior to the ACER report. See:

http://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regcomitology/index.cfm?do=search.documentdetail&aa8fTM56J8G1M3cAHteGgPYmC CSQ8RgFDLtuYd6SIvcxdbQ+AI/X9VTTMRqv00VG.

303

715/2009 and the CMP Guidelines. The purpose was to identify those IPs which would potentially be subject to the provisions

so. The report’s conclusions should be treated with care, due to the short period and analysed and data quality issues.

304

305 The reasons for existing differences between contractual and utilisation values are hard to substantiate in the absence of individual shippers’ capacity contract data. Differences might give rise to a presumption of capacity hoarding in certain IPs in the absence of fully implemented congestion management procedures, but they may also be caused by the willingness of shippers

of the inconvenience of surrendering existing long-term capacity, particularly in the absence of other shippers willing to contract the surrendered capacities.

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is not considered.

Source: ENTSOG transparency platform and individual TSO data (2014) and ACER calculations

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capacity, while the average utilisation rate is 60%, and the peak monthly utilisation value is 77%. The

443 As Figure 79 shows, the greatest divergences between contracted and utilised capacity were found

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highly contracted capacity levels, but much lower physical utilisation rates. These differences may be explained by shippers enacting balancing trades in both directions in order to take advantage of -rected to Italy, and at Nordstream, as higher utilisation levels (see Figure 80), supported by develop-ments in OPAL/NEL German pipeline capacity were registered in 2013.

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GWh/day

3000

1400 1200 1600

1000 800 600 400 200 2400 2200 2000 1800 2800 2600

0

Average used capacity

Average firm contracted capacity Firm technical capacity Peak capacity utilisation on monthly average Total capacity

Velke Kapusany Baumgarten Lanzhot Arnoldstein /

Tarvisio Waidhaus Mallnow Interconnector Nordstream Emdem ETP Medelsheim /

Obergailbach Taisnieres (H) Dunkerque Julianadorp Bocholtz Tarifa Larrau UA>SK 2012 UA>SK 2013 SK>AT 2012 SK>AT 2013 SK>CZ 2012 SK>CZ 2013 AT>IT 2012 AT>IT 2013 CZ>DE 2012 CZ>DE 2013 PL>DE 2012 PL>DE 2013 BE>UK 2012 BE>UK 2013 UK>BE 2012 UK>BE 2013 RU>DE 2012 RU>DE 2013 NO>NL 2012 NO>NL 2013 DE>FR 2012 DE>FR 2013 BE>FR 2012 BE>FR 2013 NO>FR 2012 NO>FR 2013 NL>UK 2012 NL>UK 2013 NL>DE 2012 NL>DE 2013 AL>ES 2012 AL>ES 2013 FR>ES 2012 FR>ES 2013

188

444 As noted above, a high percentage of IP capacity continues to be subject to long-term capacity con-in 2013), which has seen a shift away from new long-term contracts con-in favour of more short-term capacity revealed in the last PRISMA capacity platform yearly auctions, and the proportionally higher demand for short-term capacity products308. The move from long-term to short-term contracting could and long-term bookings in German bookable points309.

445 The emergence of a trend towards shorter term-capacity contracting is likely to be driven by a num-ber of factors, including, but not limited to: uncertainty over the medium- and long-term demand for gas, also in the light of environmental objectives; the relative price of long- and short-term capacity

gas demand growth forecasts, market participants in many locations are aware that the risk of not obtaining capacity in the short term is relatively low.

446 As noted above, long-term capacity bookings are important for underwriting new network investment decisions. The framework for validating and securing new investments has been analysed in the Blueprint on Incremental Capacity and the proposed amendment to NC CAM310. The proposed model is intended to provide more transparency to market participants concerning the ways in which new and incremental capacity can be obtained, and gives priority to market-driven investments, meaning -new capacity will materialise only in locations where there is a perceived or real scarcity of existing capacity, the willingness of market participants to make longer-term capacity commitments in these locations would be expected to be materially different compared to locations with a demonstrable surplus capacity. In this sense, market fundamentals should determine stakeholders’ interest in new projects.

447

308

platform auctions only the capacities of those IPs where capacity is available to contract. The number of IPs allocating capacity through PRISMA and the total volumes of aggregated capacity allocated via PRISMA are increasing. On the other hand, the https://platform.prisma-capacity.eu/trading/

reports.xhtml?conversationContext=1.

309 Contract terminations in German IPs are possible only on the basis of the occurrence of tariff increases over a certain threshold or due to variations in the fundamental aspects of the contracts. See BKA 2013 Monitoring Report page 195: http://www.

bundeskartellamt.de/SharedDocs/Publikation/DE/Berichte/Energie-Monitoring-2013.pdf?__blob=publicationFile.

310 See: http://www.acer.europa.eu/Gas/Framework%20guidelines_and_network%20codes/Pages/Incremental-Capacity.aspx.

Source: IEA (2014) and ACER calculations

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-ments.

i. Increase of Russian Nord Stream and Eastern flows

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-rope. Nord Stream grants Russian gas direct access into NWE markets, enabling shippers who have contracted Russian311

through this recent interconnector continued in 2013.

9.7 6.2

Significant 2012/2013 cross-border flow variations - in % over 2012 basis value.

-%

+%

190

450

and Belarus into Central Europe. However, the increased willingness of Gazprom to renegotiate the

overall increase in Russian westward supply levels. Growth has also been registered, for example,

312 by

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conditions on the Austrian-Italian border, the Austrian CEGH transition to a VTP, and also due to the imports to Italy from Magreb as a consequence of political events in Libya.

452 Several Central-East European countries are striving to diversify their gas sources, in order to lower their dependency on Russian gas, and have been looking to Western Europe’s spot markets as

al-313, Poland and Slovakia were observed, as shippers rely increasingly on German hubs to supply those markets.

spreads and the on-going procedures on security of supply obligations314 to enable, or enlarge, bi -ropean hubs315.

ii. The effects of NBP and Continental hubs price convergence on gas flows

453 As liquidity and better price formation continue to develop at Continental hubs, the traditional lower -tials swing under particular seasonal conditions and supply-demand fundamentals. TTF is becoming

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works during June served to put downward pressure on NBP prices and to reduce exports during that

-312 Aggregated Russian exports to Europe increased by 15% in 2013 to approx. 155 bcm. Source: IEA.

313

314 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/

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455 -kets led to an increase of exports from the Netherlands, which was sustained by an increase in the country’s indigenous production316.

iii. A significant reduction in LNG deliveries to Europe

456 In 2013, there was a notable reduction (30%) again in European LNG imports. The very attractive market prices in the Far East and Latin America kept LNG away from European shores. The more competitive prices of pipeline deliveries and the diminishing demand in the Iberian and Italian

pen-imports were diverted as reloaded shifts. In Spain, this resulted in much higher Algerian pen-imports, and some increases in French pipeline imports.