As discussed in Section 2, there was increasing recognition prior to COVID-19 that continuing with business as usual was no longer viable. The transformation of food and land-use systems has a central role to play in reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and meeting other key international policy objectives, such as the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Changes in land use practices and dietary shifts are needed to improve food security and human health, meet environmental objectives, and strengthen the resilience of livelihoods and economic sectors. The impacts of COVID-19, discussed in Section 3, further reinforce the need for transformation of food systems. The pandemic cannot be used an argument for delaying action, as the key sustainable development challenges remain and are fundamental to long-term human well-being. Instead, the COVID-19 crisis calls for a recovery that is fully embedded in the ambition of the SDGs (see UN 2015).
We are now at the crossroads towards or away from a sustainable development trajectory, depending on how we collectively decide to respond to this pandemic. We can broadly distinguish two alternatives that embody two distinct views on how to respond to the current global disruption (see also Box 2). On the one hand, strategic decisions made during the recovery could focus on pathways to rebuilding society and the economy as we know it, that is, reverting to a business-as-usual scenario. On the other, a recovery path could be chosen to harness the disruption caused by COVID-19 and catalyze a broader transformation toward resilient and green economies. The first alternative places a single focus on recovery from the specific shock caused by COVID-19.
The second is guided by a systems thinking approach to strategic decision making, seeking integrated solutions able to strengthen society's general preparedness for a variety of shocks and looming threats. It is currently unclear which of these contrasting alternatives will predominate, that is, the extent to which the international community will succeed in coupling near-term responses to COVID-19 with longer-term transformations of human systems toward greater resilience and sustainability.
The current architecture of our food systems reflects the increasingly interconnected nature of our economies and societies. Globalization has helped generate multiple benefits, but it also means we are increasingly confronted with shocks that originated in distant geographical locations and the challenge to manage complex risks that exhibit non-linear behavior. This has been illustrated during the pandemic, but it is also a crucial aspect of climate change and other global changes.
Before moving to key considerations and recommendations, it is worth highlighting some potential challenges and pitfalls involved in the transformation toward sustainable and resilient food systems.
The timing and speed of the socioeconomic recovery are uncertain. At the time of writing, the confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections and number of deaths are still on the rise globally. As of early November 2020, over 49.7 million cases and 1.2 million deaths had been recorded globally since the beginning of the pandemic (WHO 2020). There is also concern that the extent of infection in developing regions may be much higher than currently reported, given their limited healthcare capacities and testing possibilities. While China, New Zealand, and a few other countries appear to have contained the virus, recent surges in infections in several European countries following the easing of social distancing and travel restrictions over the Northern Hemisphere summer have illustrated the risk of a second wave. The international race to find a vaccine and recent approvals have nurtured hopes of vaccinations becoming globally available in 2021, but considerable
distributional challenges will need to be overcome. Until then, however, repeated local or more widespread lockdown measures may be necessary, further worsening economic impacts and slowing down the recovery process. If the recession of the world economy is prolonged, economic assumptions which informed analyses of sustainable development pathways before the pandemic will need to be revisited.
Risk of growing economic and technological divide. The capacities of countries to deploy fiscal rescue packages and broad social protection measures differ greatly across the world. With governments prioritizing their own national recovery, there is a risk that lack of international cooperation will hamper the sustainability transformations needed for the SDGs and widen the economic and technological gaps between and within regions. The EU, USA, and other advanced economies have released unprecedented economic stimulus packages (Cassim et al. 2020), based on both fiscal and monetary interventions. Developing countries have only limited capacity to do the same and may also have to deal with the devaluation of their currencies, as well as loss of investments and remittances. While there is now excess liquidity in some world regions, the uncertainty relating to the course of the pandemic has impeded private-sector investments.
In light of the uncertainties and constraints outlined above, it is important that the recovery is informed and guided by the vision of a more resilient and sustainable future. The recovery is about making deliberate, informed strategic choices, taking into account the potential long-term consequences for the various development paths. At this time of crisis, countries and the international community should not call the SDGs into question but rather reaffirm their own commitment to them. The SDGs provide the available framework for international cooperation on global development at a time when multilateralism has been weakened. Hence, they should be recognized as the fundamental reference guide for a sustainable recovery.
Embedded in the SDGs are the elements for more sustainable and resilient food systems. These are focused on delivering universal food and nutritional security, promoting innovation and the expansion of sustainable practices, supporting decent jobs, equity, and creating livelihood security, reducing food loss and waste, while protecting the climate, marine and terrestrial systems. Building ownership around these elements and translating them into a coherent vision should be an integral part of the recovery process of national and regional governments and also inform international collaboration. However, the pandemic has also revealed particular aspects of food systems and of our economic systems in general, which require further attention to guide strategies and policies for the recovery. In this section, we outline focal areas for reshaping and adjusting policies and actions in the wake of COVID-19 to build more resilient food systems.
Box 2. Illustrative narratives for alternative futures
COVID-19 and the global lockdown have led to a global recession, undermined long-term development progress, and exacerbated inequalities within and across countries. As countries transition from crisis management to a focus on socioeconomic recovery, we illustrate here two contrasting narratives for future development paths, which would also have consequences for building more resilient food systems.
Disordered recovery to business as usual. Emphasis in the recovery is placed on saving and restoring existing economic structures as fast as possible without strategizing investments. Country capacity with respect to issuance of fiscal stimulus packages differs greatly: growth returns to the richest parts of the world, but development in low- and middle-income economies stalls. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, as several countries dilute their national climate change targets and environmental regulations.
The objectives of the Paris Agreement appear to be out of reach, and multilateral cooperation weakens as official development assistance (ODA) and investments from developed countries are reduced. Devaluation of currencies, loss of remittances, depression of prices for primary commodities, and absence of social safety nets further exacerbate the poverty and food insecurity in developing countries, while obesity levels continue to rise globally. The technological gap between developed and developing countries widens. Developing countries struggle to improve agricultural and livestock productivity, as they are also confronted with managing climate variability and change, land degradation, and other environmental changes. The multilateral system is weak, countries putting national priorities first. While some countries are thriving economically, other countries are falling behind. The world becomes divided into regional blocks with limited cooperation among them.
Resilient and sustainable futures. Fiscal stimulus packages seek to couple recovery with targeted transformation toward more equitable, circular, green, and inclusive economies. Strong emphasis is placed on strengthening social safety nets and access to basic services. International development cooperation is recognized as an essential tool to help narrow economic and technological gaps between countries.
Developed countries for the first time universally meet their ODA contributions target of 0.7% of GDP in 2022 as a collective international response to the crisis and from 2025 commit to upscaling their ODA contributions to 1.2% of GDP. These commitments are coupled to fiscal and institutional reforms in developing countries toward greater accountability and transparency. Great emphasis is placed on education and training, helping to build endogenous research capacities in developing countries. A balanced approach of technological innovation and upscaling of available sustainable agricultural practices allows agricultural productivity to be improved, while also helping to regenerate degraded lands. Recognizing and rewarding farmers as stewards of ecosystem services through targeted incentive and payment schemes, coupled with strengthened regulations and enforcement mechanisms further contribute to maintaining carbon stocks and protecting biodiversity. The international push toward healthy and affordable diets, which is supported through targeted government programs and awareness campaigns, reduces the prevalence of non-communicable diseases while also reducing the pressure on land. The world is moving toward integrated collaboration and integration to address global challenges, maintaining a collective focus on SDG targets in 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050.