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3. WEATHER, WATER, ICE, AND CLIMATE INFORMATION USERS

3.3 Tourism

Total tourism numbers in the Polar Regions has increased over the past decade but continues to fluctuate annually. The overall number of tourists visiting the Arctic is greater than the number of tourists visiting the Antarctic, however, tourism in represents the primary and largest commercial activity in Antarctica (see Figure 3.3). Visitation across the Arctic varies dramatically by country, with the United States (Alaska) and Norway (Svalbard) by far

attracting the highest number of visitors annually (see Figure 3.4 and Figure 3.5). Other Arctic tourism locations include the Canadian Arctic, the Russian Arctic, Iceland and Greenland.

Figure 3.3. Antarctic tourism numbers (based on data obtained from IAATO, 2017)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

To uri st n umb ers

Seasons

Air & cruise combina6on Expedi6on cruises (landings)

Figure 3.4. (Left) Number of visitor arrivals by road, sea or air in Alaska (AVSP, 2016); (Right) Number of cruise tourists, cruise vessels and sailings

to Svalbard (AECO, n.d.)

Figure 3.5. Cruise Passengers in the Arctic (Canada, Greenland, Norway) (Dawson et al., 2017c)

Tourists engage in a variety of land based and marine activities while visiting Polar Regions (see Table 3.1). The various kinds of land-based tourism activities are often labelled as

“adventure tourism” and include a variety of sports and more physically demanding activities such as hiking, climbing, skiing, snow-shoeing, running marathons, etc. In both, the Arctic and the Antarctic, adventure tourists continue to challenge themselves with solo expeditions or endeavours that test their mental and physical endurance (Stewart and Liggett, 2016). Those activities are viewed with some concern by policy makers, especially in the Antarctic, due to their great risks and the potentially complex search-and-rescue operations required should anything go wrong (USA, 2007). Tourists in both Polar Regions frequently visit historic monuments and local communities – be it resident communities in the Arctic or research stations and refuges in the Antarctic. On land, mobility types include a wide range of multi-terrain vehicles (some of which are the same as those shown in Figures 3.4 and 3.5 above),

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of Passengers

Canada Greenland Svalbard

including various types of snowmachines, and movement by foot or skis. Consumptive tourism, i.e. hunting or fishing, is only undertaken in the Arctic as the 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty prohibits any kind of mineral-resource extraction, other than for purely scientific purposes (Maher et al., 2011), and the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources strictly regulates marine-resource extraction, with

recreational fishing activities not being permitted by the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO).

Despite land-based tourism opportunities, most tourism to the Polar Regions is ship-based supported by air travel. Ship-based tourism is dominated by cruise vessels, with many of the same vessels operating both in the Arctic and Antarctic (see Table 3.1) (Lück et al., 2010).

Cruising without landing anywhere (also referred to as “cruise-only” tourism) is less common than expedition cruising, which regularly lands passengers in areas of interest to land-based tourism activities (Stewart and Liggett, 2016). Increasingly, private and commercial yachts, i.e. ships with a capacity of up to 12 passengers are also visiting the Polar Regions (Johnston et al., 2017).

Table 3.1. Advertised tourism activities in the Polar Regions (Adapted from Dawson et al. (2017b) and Lamers and Gelter (2012))

Country Kayaking or rafting (river

Over 98 per cent of Antarctic tourism is ship-based (see IAATO, 2016), and more than 90 percept of all tourists visiting Antarctica pass through Ushuaia, the most southern port of Argentina en route to the Antarctic. Once in the Antarctic, the majority of tourism activities are focused at a relatively small number of landing sites along the Antarctic Peninsula (Bender et al., 2016). The majority of Antarctic tour operators belong to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO), which aims to “promote the practice of safe and

environmentally responsible private-sector travel to the Antarctic” (IAATO, 2016). Antarctic tourism is highly concentrated in the Northwestern part of the Antarctic Peninsula, as highlighted in Figure 3.6.

Figure 3.6. Traffic intensity due to tourism in the Antarctic Peninsula

[N.B. The darker the shade of red in this figure, the greater the intensity of tourism in this region] (Bender et al., 2016: 3).

Self-regulatory organizations such as IAATO for the Antarctic and the Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO, 2016b) for the Arctic also play an important role in managing some of the risks associated with tourism (Dawson et al. 2014, 2016, 2017c; also see Box 3.2). For example, IAATO’s bylaws require cruise vessels venturing into ice-strewn Antarctic waters have to have an experienced Ice Pilot or Ice Master on board (IAATO, 2009).

3.3.1 Expected future trends

In both Polar Regions, dramatic changes in sea-ice extent and thickness and in particular diminishing sea-ice cover in the Arctic and around the Antarctic Peninsula region (see e.g.

Meredith et al., 2016; Stroeve et al., 2014) allow tour operators to move into even higher latitudes and to extend the lengths of their operating season from earlier in the spring into later in the summer (see e.g. Tejedo et al., 2014; Bender et al., 2016). However, visiting the Polar Regions at the very beginning of a cruising season does not come without its risks as the sinking of the MV Explorer in Bransfield Strait in 2007 has highlighted (Republic of Liberia, 2009; Stewart and Draper, 2008).

In Antarctica, at least in part due to recent changes in IMO regulations that now requires anyone operating in the Antarctic to use light-marine fuel oils only (IMO, 2011), cruise-only tourism (i.e. generally vessels carrying over 500 passengers) has declined and is not expected to regain the same popularity as prior to 2007/8. In the Arctic, the presence of large cruise vessels continues to grow. Land-based tourism has not undergone any significant changes over the 30+ years of its operation and is likely to dramatically change in the future as it taps into a niche market of adventurous and fit individuals with a significant disposable income.

Continental overflights in the Antarctic are unlikely to feature in the future, but novel products such as the recently offered aurora flights from New Zealand or new adventure-tourism

products may gain in popularity. Air-cruise combinations are also expected to increase further.

Finally, small-scale and non-commercial tourism, including private yacht expeditions and record-setting expeditions are the fastest growing sector in recent years, and this trend is likely to continue (see Johnston et al., 2016).

Box 3.2. Arctic Expedition Cruising

Expedition cruise tourism is the most common form of cruising in the Polar Regions and is characterized by small vessels (between 20 and 500 passengers), shore landings and exploration using rubber boats, quality environmental and historical interpretation of biodiversity, landscapes, historical remains and current use, remote and exclusive wilderness experience (i.e. the one boat at one bay at any one time principle), minimal environmental and social impact, human safety and flexibility due to dynamic weather and sea ice conditions. Expedition cruising started in the Antarctic with Lars-Erik Lindblad, and the building of the M/V Lindblad Explorer in the late 1970s, a tailor-made expedition ship for exploring ice-infested Antarctic waters (Headland, 1994; Lamers et al., 2008; Stonehouse, 1994). The so-called Lindblad model of expedition cruising travelled with the operators to other remote marine destinations, like the Galapagos Islands and the European and Canadian Arctic. To safeguard the mentioned principles in times of growth and spread expedition cruise operators collaborate in two industry associations, the Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) and the Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO, 2016a; Lamers et al., 2012; Haase et al., 2009).

Arctic expedition cruise operators make use of a variety of environmental information sources and instruments for decisionmaking. For example, operators use on board instruments like barometers and barographs, information services like GRIB files or ice charts, and communication tools like internet, Iridium satellite telephone, VHF radio. Their use is integrated in complex operational practices that predominantly depend on the experience of captains and expedition leaders, and their ability to

communicate, for several reasons (Duske, 2016). First, internet connectivity is very weak in high latitude marine settings, which makes heavy data formats are difficult to download particularly for smaller sized expedition cruise vessels. This foregrounds the use of Iridium telephone and VHF for communication with company headquarters and other expedition cruise vessels in the vicinity about weather and sea ice conditions. Second, GRIB weather files are not very predictable at high latitudes with limited verification from local weather stations. As one expedition leader explains: “If you use a local GRIB file they don’t provide details and they don’t show the coastal effect, so I have to do it myself”. Third, the risk categories used in ice-charts typically do not necessarily correspond with the practice of expedition cruising, whereby the sea ice is not avoided but used as an attraction, including the biodiversity living on and around it. Fourth, various information sources are not readily available, for example ice charts from the Norwegian MET service are not available during the weekend when captains and expedition leaders rely on raw satellite imagery. Captains and expedition leaders know from experience what information source is useful at any one spatial-temporal context, including various national and private

meteorological and sea ice services. Fifth, climate change is making navigation in Arctic waters more unpredictable.

Photo above: The icebreaker ‘Kapitan Khlebnikov’ visiting Pond Inlet, Canada (© E.J. Stewart (2010).