CHAPTER VI. ESTIMATION RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
6.2 The Model‘s Performance
The demand system that we specified consists of budget share to the total food expenditure of the following food groups: rice, non-rice staples, fish, meat, eggs and milk, legumes, Fruits and Vegetables, Edible Oils, tobacco and betel, prepared food , and spices and miscellaneous.
Demand estimates for spices and miscellaneous food group are not estimated directly, because it was dropped from the system. Instead, they were estimated by using adding up principle. These eleven food groups accommodated all items recorded in the questionnaire of SUSENAS module for household expenditure survey. It is worth noting, that the group of prepared foods into this group is motivated by the expectation that this group may represent the consumer‘s preference on processed foods that possibly be substitutive for rice. This type of information is needed to address issues of food diversity for rice. When prepared food is substitute for rice, and has more than unity elasticity of income, then it seems to be reasonable to hypothesize that the promotion of processing food industry might be means to cut the dependence of people on rice. Tables 6.2 to 6.9 display the parameter estimates resulted from the model estimation. The estimation was done with the imposition of homogeneity and symmetry restrictions. The adding-up restriction is automatically imposed.
84
Table 6.2 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1990 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Urban East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy COMMODITY PRICES Lower Middle Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish
Rice 0.43617*** 0.13790** -0.10532 -0.03258 0.09962*** -0.00793** -0.01435***
Non Rice Staple -0.03085 0.01261 -0.04879 0.03618 -0.00793** 0.00947*** -0.00192**
Fish 0.10379*** -0.03910 0.04389 -0.00479 -0.01435*** -0.00192** 0.01673***
Meat 0.17200*** -0.12176** 0.10025 0.02151 -0.00661 0.00078 0.00126
Eggs and Milk 0.11893*** -0.06385 0.20018 -0.13633*** 0.00369 0.00392*** 0.00027 Legume 0.11005*** -0.04797 0.18887 -0.14090*** -0.00575 0.00050 -0.00219 Fruit & Vegetable -0.04509 0.00903 -0.01951 0.01048 -0.01720*** -0.00281* 0.00357***
Edible Oil 0.09978*** -0.02950 0.07468 -0.04518** 0.01809*** 0.00071 -0.00128*
Tobacco 0.05767 -0.02161 -0.09180 0.11341* -0.03402*** -0.00238 -0.00151 Prepared Foods -0.00978 0.14303** -0.27308 0.13005** -0.03082*** -0.00062 -0.00294**
Spices c -0.01267 0.02122 -0.06937 0.04815 -0.00472 0.00028 0.00236
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco
Rice -0.00661 0.00369 -0.00575 -0.01720*** 0.01809*** -0.03402***
Non Rice Staple 0.00078 0.00392*** 0.00050 -0.00281** 0.00071** -0.00238
Fish 0.00126 0.00027 -0.00219 0.00357*** -0.00128* -0.00151
Meat 0.01404*** -0.00297* 0.00498 0.00400 -0.00498** 0.00552
Eggs and Milk -0.00297* -0.00499*** 0.00037 -0.00407*** 0.00089 0.00361*
Legume 0.00498 0.00037 0.01557*** 0.00116 0.00060 -0.01272***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.00400 -0.00407*** 0.00116 0.01735*** -0.00564^*** 0.00371 Edible Oil -0.00498** 0.00089 0.00060 -0.00564*** -0.00507*** 0.00026
Tobacco 0.00552 0.00361* -0.01272*** 0.00371 0.00026 0.03555***
Prepared Food -0.01391*** -0.00193 -0.00366** -0.00188 -0.00291*** -0.00058
Spices c -0.00210 0.00119 0.00114 0.00182 -0.00068 0.00255
MODEL COMMODITY PRICES Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share House-hold
Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middle Higher
Rice -0.03082*** -0.00472** -0.12972*** -0.03731* 0.03561 0.00169 0.17013***
Non Rice Staple -0.00062 0.00028 0.01845*** -0.00036 0.01386 -0.01350 0.00186 Fish -0.00294** 0.00235*** -0.01826** 0.01113 -0.01460 0.00347 0.00356 Meat -0.01391*** -0.00210* -0.03429*** 0.03257*** -0.03615 0.00358 -0.01343***
Eggs and Milk -0.00193 0.00119* -0.00986 0.01588 -0.05472 0.03884*** -0.01556***
Legumes -0.00366** 0.00114 -0.01593* 0.01038 -0.04685 0.03648 -0.00544 Fruit & Vegetable -0.00188 0.00182* 0.03572*** -0.00537 0.00694 -0.00157 -0.02746***
Edible Oil -0.00291*** -0.00067 -0.01338*** 0.00895 -0.02050 0.01154* -0.00021 Tobacco -0.00058 0.00255* 0.02912** 0.00399 0.02482 -0.02881 -0.03601***
Prepared Foods 0.06152*** -0.00226*** 0.11961*** -0.03520** 0.07227 -0.03707*** -0.06646***
Spices c -0.00226 0.00043 0.01854 -0.00467 0.01931 -0.01464 -0.01098
Note:*:p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***: bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
85
Table 6.3 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1990 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Rural East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish Rice 0.82731*** -0.22646*** 0.54562 -0.31916*** 0.06853*** -0.01220*** -0.01132***
Non Rice Staple -0.35235*** 0.31185*** -0.57096 0.25911*** -0.01220*** 0.02004*** -0.00197 Fish -0.03556*** 0.04994*** -0.11649 0.06655*** -0.01132*** -0.00197*** 0.01742***
Meat 0.21759*** -0.12273*** 0.14292 -0.02019 0.00338 0.00006 -0.00442***
Eggs and Milk 0.07959*** -0.02084* 0.02881 -0.00797 -0.00904*** 0.00176*** -0.00036 Legume 0.09160*** -0.05213*** 0.07103 -0.01890 0.00027 -0.00173** -0.00145***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00591 -0.05147*** 0.05091 0.00056 -0.00210 -0.00610*** 0.00299***
Edible Oil 0.06991*** 0.01874 -0.02778 0.00904 0.01701*** 0.00053 -0.00017 Tobacco 0.06124*** -0.04802** 0.00327 0.04475** -0.01610*** -0.00152** 0.00225***
Prepared Foods 0.06600*** 0.11356*** -0.05987 -0.05369** -0.03801*** 0.00114 -0.00546***
Spices c -0.01942 0.02756 -0.06746 0.03990 -0.00041 -0.00001 0.00248
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco
Rice 0.00338 -0.00904*** 0.00026*** -0.00210 0.01701*** -0.01610***
Non Rice Staple 0.00006*** 0.00176*** -0.00173** -0.00610*** 0.00053 -0.00152*
Fish -0.00442*** -0.00036 -0.00145*** 0.00299*** -0.00017 0.00225***
Meat 0.00460** 0.00143*** 0.00547*** 0.00024 -0.00526*** 0.00169
Eggs and Milk 0.00143*** 0.00249*** 0.00292*** -0.00043 0.00131*** 0.00038 Legume 0.00547*** 0.00292*** 0.00475*** -0.00147 -0.00138* -0.00481***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.0002 -0.00043 -0.00147 0.01073*** -0.00332*** 0.00125 Edible Oil -0.00526*** 0.00131*** -0.00138* -0.00332*** -0.00795*** 0.00206***
Tobacco 0.00169 0.00038 -0.00481*** 0.00125 0.00206*** 0.01893***
Prepared Food -0.00536*** -0.00056 -0.00404*** -0.00223*** -0.00261*** -0.00276***
Spices c -0.00183 0.00011 0.00146 0.00045 -0.00021 -0.00136
MODEL
Commodity Prices Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share House-hold Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middle Higher
Rice -0.03801*** -0.00041 -0.22686*** 0.05454*** -0.15401 0.09948*** 0.10296***
Non Rice Staple 0.00114 -0.00001 0.12192* -0.07672*** 0.16518 -0.08846*** 0.03111***
Fish -0.00546*** 0.00248*** 0.03234*** -0.01303*** 0.03217 -0.01914*** -0.00949***
Meat -0.00536*** -0.00183*** -0.04674*** 0.03439*** -0.04449 0.01011** 0.00368***
Eggs and Milk -0.00056 0.00011 -0.00999*** 0.00529 -0.00923 0.00394 -0.00493***
Legumes -0.00404*** 0.00146*** -0.01373*** 0.01201** -0.01953 0.00752 -0.01003***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00223*** 0.00045 0.01898*** 0.01532*** -0.01705 0.00173 -0.02035***
Edible Oil -0.00261*** -0.00021 -0.00133 -0.00535* 0.00840 -0.00305 -0.00503***
Tobacco -0.00276*** -0.00136*** 0.01722*** 0.01240** -0.00320 -0.00920 -0.03090***
Prepared Foods 0.06120*** -0.00133*** 0.08533*** -0.03201* 0.02185 0.01016* -0.04397***
Spices c -0.00132 0.00067 0.02286 -0.00684 0.01992 -0.01308 -0.01305 Note: *: p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***: bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
86
Table 6.4 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the SUSENAS Micro Data: 1993, Urban East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish Rice 0.37317*** 0.08145*** -0.04648 -0.03496 0.10559*** -0.00395*** -0.01430***
Non Rice Staple 0.01471*** 0.00132 -0.01228 0.01096 -0.00395*** 0.00335*** -0.00039 Fish 0.07548*** -0.01378 -0.01647 0.03025** -0.01430*** -0.00039 0.01919***
Meat 0.16219*** -0.04560*** 0.04161 0.00399 -0.00423 0.00210*** 0.00250***
Eggs and Milk 0.05588*** -0.01792 0.05660 -0.03868* -0.00999*** -0.00010 0.00027 Legume 0.10210*** -0.01140 0.03598 -0.02458* 0.00079 0.00006 -0.00236***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.02516*** -0.03800*** 0.02264 0.01536 -0.01400*** -0.00016 0.00408***
Edible Oil 0.08358*** 0.01145 -0.01144 -0.00001 0.00297 0.00064 -0.00282***
Tobacco 0.04514*** -0.04929** -0.04225 0.09154*** -0.02425*** -0.00126 0.00041 Prepared Foods 0.02703*** 0.05927** 0.01051 -0.06978** -0.03772*** -0.00090** -0.00666***
Spices c 0.03556 0.02251 -0.03841 0.01590 -0.00091 0.00060 0.00008
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco
Rice -0.00423 -0.00999*** 0.00079 -0.01400*** 0.00297 -0.02425***
Non Rice Staple 0.00210*** -0.00010 0.00006 -0.00016 0.00064 -0.00126
Fish 0.00250*** 0.00027 -0.00236*** 0.00408*** -0.00282*** 0.00041
Meat 0.01848*** 0.00145 -0.00114 -0.00138 -0.00312*** -0.00677***
Eggs and Milk 0.00145 0.00455*** 0.00280*** 0.00026 0.00170*** 0.00251**
Legume -0.00114 0.00280*** 0.00752*** -0.00219* 0.00376*** -0.00741***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00138 0.00026 -0.00219** 0.02003*** -0.00182** -0.00220 Edible Oil -0.00312*** 0.00170*** 0.00376*** -0.00182** 0.00323*** -0.00117 Tobacco -0.00677*** 0.00251** -0.00741*** -0.00220 -0.00117 0.03983***
Prepared Food -0.01020*** -0.00297*** -0.00413*** -0.00061 -0.00454*** 0.00056
Spices c 0.00232 -0.00048 0.00230 -0.00201 0.00118 -0.00026
MODEL
Commodity Prices Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share House-hold Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middleb Higher
Rice -0.03772*** -0.00092 -0.10207*** -0.01599** -0.00030 0.01629 0.13599***
Non Rice Staple -0.00090** 0.00060* 0.00136 0.00102 -0.00353 0.00251* -0.00044 Fish -0.00666*** 0.00008 -0.01113*** 0.00311 -0.00715 0.00404* 0.00342 Meat -0.01020*** 0.00232*** -0.03627*** 0.00910* 0.00784 -0.01693* 0.00557**
Eggs and Milk -0.00297*** -0.00048 0.00287 0.00209 0.01430 -0.01639*** -0.01216***
Legumes -0.00413*** 0.00229*** -0.01464*** 0.00287 0.00476 -0.00762 0.00716***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00061 -0.00201*** 0.01288*** 0.00686 -0.00094 -0.00592 -0.01912***
Edible Oil -0.00454*** 0.00118*** -0.01018*** -0.00303 0.00009 0.00294 -0.00014 Tobacco 0.00056 -0.00026 0.03902*** 0.01472** -0.02861 0.01389*** -0.03217***
Prepared Foods 0.07041*** -0.00323*** 0.11804*** -0.01407* 0.01850 -0.00443** -0.08230***
Spices c -0.00323 0.00043 0.00012 -0.00667 -0.00495 0.01162 -0.00581 Note: *: p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***: bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
87
Table 6.5 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1993 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Rural East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish Rice 0.38858*** 0.09829*** -0.05124 -0.04705* 0.04422*** 0.00202 -0.01158***
Non Rice Staple -0.10448*** 0.06942*** 0.08470 -0.15412*** 0.00202 0.00193* -0.00172**
Fish 0.01383 0.00956 0.03856 -0.04812** -0.01158*** -0.00172*** 0.01707***
Meat 0.14945*** -0.05462*** -0.00133 0.05595 0.00707*** -0.00099* 0.00006 Eggs and Milk 0.07183*** -0.02164** -0.01563 0.03727 -0.00157 0.00068 0.00004 Legume 0.08848*** -0.01942* -0.00290 0.02232 -0.00294 0.00150** 0.00038 Fruit & Vegetable 0.02056 -0.02212* -0.00809 0.03021 -0.00487*** -0.00114* 0.00180***
Edible Oil 0.12488*** 0.00054 -0.00922 0.00868 0.02943*** 0.00085** -0.00194***
Tobacco 0.06284*** -0.05305*** 0.01943 0.03362 -0.02811*** -0.00283*** 0.00042 Prepared Foods 0.15469*** 0.00234 -0.05321 0.05087*** -0.02829*** -0.00160** -0.00409***
Spices c 0.02934 -0.00930 -0.00107 0.01037 -0.00538 0.00130 -0.00043 MODEL
COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco
Rice 0.00707*** -0.00157 -0.00294 -0.00487*** 0.02943*** -0.02811***
Non Rice Staple -0.00099* 0.00068 0.00150** -0.00114* 0.00085** -0.00283***
Fish 0.00006 0.00004 0.00038 0.00180*** -0.00194*** 0.00042
Meat 0.01557*** 0.00119** -0.00132 -0.00425*** -0.01136*** 0.00177*
Eggs and Milk 0.00120** 0.00152*** 0.00177*** 0.00072 0.00079** -0.00182**
Legume -0.00132 0.00177*** 0.00577*** -0.00197** 0.00131* -0.00402***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00425*** 0.00072 -0.00197** 0.01158*** -0.00326*** -0.00051 Edible Oil -0.01136*** 0.00079** 0.00131* -0.00326*** -0.01226*** 0.00012
Tobacco 0.00177* -0.00182** -0.00402*** -0.00051 0.00012 0.03298***
Prepared Food -0.00947*** -0.00292*** -0.00333*** 0.00074 -0.00503*** 0.00361***
Spices c 0.00173 -0.00041 0.00284 0.00116 0.00135 -0.00160
MODEL
Commodity Prices Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share House-hold Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middleb Higher
Rice -0.02829*** -0.00538*** -0.10811*** -0.02877*** 0.01252 0.01626 0.12759***
Non Rice Staple -0.00160** 0.00130*** 0.04420*** -0.01085** -0.03185 0.04271*** 0.01367***
Fish -0.00409*** -0.00043 0.01774*** -0.00181 -0.01120 0.01300** -0.01121***
Meat -0.00947*** 0.00173*** -0.03149*** 0.01257*** 0.00341 -0.01598 0.00611***
Eggs and Milk -0.00292*** -0.00041 -0.00839*** 0.00542* 0.00636 -0.01179** -0.00524***
Legumes -0.00333*** 0.00284*** -0.00496 0.00275 0.00220 -0.00495 -0.01147***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.00074 0.00116*** 0.01387*** 0.00430 0.00383 -0.00813 -0.01463***
Edible Oil -0.00503*** 0.00134*** -0.01197*** -0.00022 0.00277 -0.00255 -0.00347***
Tobacco 0.00361*** -0.00160*** 0.02766*** 0.01408*** -0.00293 -0.01115 -0.03905***
Prepared Foods 0.05183*** -0.00146*** 0.05407*** -0.00155 0.01482 -0.01327** -0.04797***
Spices c -0.00146 0.00091 0.00738 0.00408 0.00007 -0.00415 -0.01433
Note: *: p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***:bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
88
Table 6.6 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1996 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Urban East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish Rice 0.25999*** 0.14216*** -0.17063 0.02847 0.10770*** -0.00062 -0.01199***
Non Rice Staple 0.00871 0.00538 -0.00866 0.00328 -0.00062 0.00610*** -0.00152***
Fish 0.13138*** -0.04917*** 0.10218 -0.05301*** -0.01199*** -0.00152*** 0.01930***
Meat 0.19436*** -0.10959*** 0.10043 0.00916 -0.01586*** 0.00254*** 0.00040 Eggs and Milk 0.10731*** -0.03267 0.12443 -0.09176*** -0.00357 -0.00063 0.00179**
Legume 0.03742*** 0.02751* -0.03625 0.00874 -0.00164*** 0.00156* -0.00268***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.04594*** -0.08497*** 0.08216 0.00281 -0.01210*** -0.00039 0.00235***
Edible Oil 0.07617*** 0.02069** -0.02989 0.00920 0.01617*** -0.00053 -0.00270**
Tobacco 0.02618 -0.05489** 0.04031 0.01458 -0.03263*** -0.00288*** -0.00047 Prepared Foods 0.06642*** 0.13026*** -0.19534 0.06508*** -0.04090*** -0.00415*** -0.00396***
Spices c 0.04612 0.00529 -0.00875 0.00346 -0.00456 0.00054 -0.00051
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco Rice -0.01586*** -0.00357*** -0.00164 -0.01210*** 0.01617*** -0.03263***
Non Rice Staple 0.00254*** -0.00063 0.00156** -0.00039 -0.00053 -0.00289***
Fish 0.00040 0.00178** -0.00268*** 0.00235*** -0.00270*** -0.00047
Meat 0.02352*** -0.00090 -0.00349** -0.00052 -0.00342*** 0.00243
Eggs and Milk -0.00090 -0.00259** 0.00094 -0.00006 0.00095** 0.00369***
Legume -0.00349** 0.00094 0.00915*** -0.00206** 0.00478*** 0.00434**
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00052 -0.00006 -0.00206** 0.02609*** -0.00252*** -0.00101 Edible Oil -0.00342*** 0.00095** 0.00478*** -0.00252*** -0.00746** 0.00043
Tobacco 0.00243 0.00369*** 0.00434 -0.00101 0.00043 0.04536***
Prepared Food -0.00529*** -0.00048 -0.01110*** -0.00930*** -0.00459*** -0.01797***
Spices c 0.00058 0.00088 0.00020 -0.00048 -0.00111 -0.00128
MODEL
Commodity Prices Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share House-hold Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middleb Higher
Rice -0.04090*** -0.00456*** -0.07069*** -0.03064*** 0.04600 -0.01536** 0.11999***
Non Rice Staple -0.00415*** 0.00054 -0.00047 -0.00037 0.00168 -0.00131 0.00294***
Fish -0.00396*** -0.00051** -0.02381*** 0.01057** -0.02430 0.01373*** 0.00187 Meat -0.00529*** 0.00058 -0.04119*** 0.02553*** -0.03032 0.00480 0.00003 Eggs and Milk -0.00048 0.00088*** -0.00828* 0.00600 -0.03292 0.02691*** -0.01276***
Legumes -0.01109*** 0.00020 -0.00265 -0.00710* 0.01036 -0.00326 0.00439**
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00930*** -0.00048 0.00154 0.01889*** -0.02334 0.00444 -0.02293***
Edible Oil -0.00459*** -0.00111*** -0.01020*** -0.00498** 0.00728 -0.00230 0.00342***
Tobacco -0.01797*** -0.00128* 0.02258*** 0.01344** -0.00831 -0.00513 -0.02863***
Prepared Foods 0.10071*** -0.00297*** 0.13703*** -0.03014*** 0.05162 -0.02149*** -0.06753***
Spices c -0.00298*** 0.00872 -0.00386 -0.00120 0.00225 -0.00105 -0.00079 Note: *: p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***: bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
89
Table 6.7 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1996 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Rural East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish Rice 0.30791*** 0.04109 0.04096 -0.08205** 0.11334*** -0.02431*** -0.01601***
Non Rice Staple 0.05591*** 0.02025 -0.01523 -0.00502 -0.02431*** 0.03077*** -0.00314***
Fish 0.05055*** -0.00721 -0.03924 0.04645*** -0.01601*** -0.00314*** 0.01732***
Meat 0.14639*** -0.07173*** 0.02880 0.04293*** -0.00614*** 0.00366*** -0.00191***
Eggs and Milk 0.08341*** -0.02115* 0.03310 -0.01195 -0.00296*** -0.00155** -0.00070*
Legume 0.04397*** 0.00147 -0.00622 0.00475 -0.00562*** 0.00335*** 0.00124*
Fruit & Vegetable 0.03687*** -0.04477*** 0.06456 -0.01979 -0.00460*** 0.00014 0.00311***
Edible Oil 0.14115*** -0.01719* 0.03168 -0.01449 0.03231*** 0.00034 0.00094***
Tobacco 0.01769 -0.03844** -0.01041 0.04885** -0.02968*** -0.00148 0.00244***
Prepared Foods 0.08151*** 0.12830*** -0.10962 -0.01868 -0.05162*** -0.00489*** -0.00408***
Spices c 0.03464 0.00938 -0.01839 0.00901 -0.00471 -0.00289 0.00080
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco Rice -0.00614*** -0.00296*** -0.00562*** -0.00460*** 0.03231*** -0.02968***
Non Rice Staple 0.00366*** -0.00155** 0.00335*** 0.00013 0.00034 -0.00148 Fish -0.00191*** -0.00070* 0.00124** 0.00311*** 0.00094** 0.00244***
Meat 0.01903*** -0.00108*** -0.00005 -0.00233*** -0.00820*** -0.00015 Eggs and Milk -0.00108** 0.00062 0.00092** 0.00052 0.00192*** 0.00136**
Legume -0.00005 0.00092** 0.00521*** 0.00102 -0.00042 0.00022
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00233*** 0.00052 0.00102 0.00578*** -0.00364** 0.00363***
Edible Oil -0.00820*** 0.00192*** -0.00042 -0.00364*** -0.02326*** 0.00361***
Tobacco -0.00015 0.00136** 0.00022 0.00363*** 0.00361*** 0.03112***
Prepared Food -0.00231*** 0.00147*** -0.00716*** -0.00529*** -0.00329*** -0.01023***
Spices c -0.00051 -0.00053 0.00130 0.00167 -0.00032 -0.00084
Non Rice Staple -0.00489*** -0.00288*** -0.01157*** 0.00222 0.00102 -0.00324 0.03235***
Fish -0.00408*** 0.00080*** -0.00093 0.00261 0.00836 -0.01096*** 0.00103 Meat -0.00231*** -0.00051 -0.02606*** 0.01805*** -0.01154 -0.00651* -0.00101 Eggs and Milk 0.00147*** -0.00053*** -0.00788*** 0.00480 -0.01021 0.00542* -0.00421***
Legumes -0.00716*** 0.00130*** 0.00108 -0.00117 0.00274 -0.00158 -0.00768***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00529*** 0.00167*** 0.00199 0.00930** -0.01816 0.00887** -0.01296***
Edible Oil -0.00329*** -0.00032 -0.01893*** 0.00457* -0.00798 0.00341 -0.00081 Tobacco -0.01023*** -0.00084* 0.02819*** 0.00872* 0.00240 -0.01112** -0.03488***
Prepared Foods 0.09046 -0.00307*** 0.12417*** -0.03323*** 0.03282 0.00041 -0.06816***
Spices c -0.00307 0.00910 0.00113 -0.00210 0.00497 -0.00287 -0.00423 Note: *: p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***: bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
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Table 6.8 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1999 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Urban East Java, Indonesia
MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish Rice 0.20433*** 0.04987** -0.03882 -0.01105 0.08999*** -0.00381*** -0.01542***
Non Rice Staple 0.01927** 0.02442** -0.02381 -0.00060 -0.00382*** 0.00722*** 0.00022 Fish 0.11637*** -0.01589 0.03230 -0.01641 -0.01542*** 0.00021 0.02296***
Meat 0.16798*** -0.06886*** 0.03986 0.02900** -0.00239 0.00436*** 0.00016 Eggs and Milk 0.13368*** -0.03789*** -0.00176 0.03965** -0.00763*** -0.00257*** 0.00034 Legume 0.02743** 0.01071 -0.00185 -0.00886 0.00092 -0.00129* -0.00184***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.05634*** -0.00903 -0.00163 0.01066 -0.01184*** -0.00136** -0.00035 Edible Oil 0.09478*** 0.00535 -0.00316 -0.00219 0.00529*** 0.00052 -0.00305***
Tobacco -0.18798*** 0.08406*** -0.14213 0.05807*** -0.00226 0.00295*** 0.00279***
Prepared Foods 0.31390*** -0.05104** 0.14089 -0.08986*** -0.04928*** -0.00524*** -0.00582***
Spices 0.05390 0.00830 0.00010 -0.00840 -0.00356 -0.00099 0.00002
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco
Rice -0.00239 -0.00763*** 0.00092 -0.01184*** 0.00529*** -0.00226
Non Rice Staple 0.00436*** -0.00257*** -0.00129* -0.00137** 0.00052 0.00295***
Fish 0.00016 0.00034 -0.00184*** -0.00035 -0.00305*** 0.00279***
Meat 0.00122 -0.00141** 0.00153* 0.00051 -0.00011 -0.00226***
Eggs and Milk -0.00141** 0.01032*** 0.00206*** -0.00008 -0.00169*** 0.00341***
Legume 0.00153* 0.00206*** 0.00836*** -0.00269*** 0.00756*** -0.00208**
Fruit & Vegetable 0.00051 -0.00008 -0.00269*** 0.02224*** -0.00087 0.00156**
Edible Oil -0.00011 -0.00169*** 0.00756*** -0.00087 -0.00631*** 0.00734***
Tobacco -0.00226*** 0.00341*** -0.00208** 0.00156** 0.00734*** 0.00622***
Prepared Food -0.00157* -0.00088 -0.01436*** -0.00699*** -0.00666*** -0.01785***
Spices -0.00005 -0.00187 0.00183 -0.00013 -0.00202 0.00019
MODEL
Commodity Prices Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share House-hold Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middleb Higher
Rice -0.04928*** -0.00356*** -0.04953*** -0.00827 -0.00398 -0.01536 0.07742***
Non Rice Staple -0.00524*** -0.00099*** -0.00351* -0.00492** -0.00019 -0.00131 0.00641***
Fish -0.00582*** 0.00002 -0.01916*** 0.00129 0.00529 0.01373 0.00548***
Meat -0.00157* -0.00005 -0.02846*** 0.01507*** -0.00237 0.00480 0.00738***
Eggs and Milk -0.00088 -0.00187*** -0.02104*** 0.00733* -0.00471 0.02691 0.00274*
Legumes -0.01436*** 0.00183*** -0.00305 -0.00282 0.00139 -0.00326 -0.00095 Fruit & Vegetable -0.00698*** -0.00013 -0.00387* 0.00078 0.00020 0.00444 -0.00632***
Edible Oil -0.00666*** -0.00201*** -0.01097*** -0.00159 0.00046 -0.00230 0.00335***
Tobacco -0.01785*** 0.00019 0.07087*** -0.01975*** -0.01533 -0.00513 -0.02316***
Prepared Foods 0.11454*** -0.00590*** 0.07411*** 0.01525** 0.01745 -0.02149*** -0.07266***
Spices -0.00590 0.01248 -0.00540 -0.00235 0.00178 -0.00105 0.00031
Note: *: p < .10; **: p < 0.05; ***: bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
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Table 6.9 Parameter Estimates for the LA/AIDS Model
Based on the 1999 - SUSENAS Micro Data: Rural East Java, Indonesia MODEL Intercept Income Group Based- Dummy Commodity Prices
Lower Middlea Higher Rice N.Rice.S Fish
Rice 0.30874*** -0.01973 0.13735 -0.11762*** 0.07671*** -0.01706*** -0.01192***
Non Rice Staple -0.13810*** 0.07470*** -0.20310 0.12840*** -0.01706*** 0.02499*** -0.00091 Fish 0.05717*** -0.00760 0.00953 -0.00193 -0.01192*** -0.00091 0.02022***
Meat 0.15254*** -0.07059*** 0.05898 0.01161 0.00812*** -0.00116 -0.00518***
Eggs and Milk 0.09281*** -0.04293*** 0.01904 0.02389** -0.00595*** -0.00157*** -0.00065**
Legume 0.05063*** -0.01447 0.00984 0.00463 -0.00734*** 0.00265*** 0.00213***
Fruit & Vegetable 0.05233*** -0.03274*** 0.03647 -0.00373 -0.00685*** -0.00077 -0.00115***
Edible Oil .15790*** 0.00079 0.02045 -0.02124* 0.03225*** 0.00336 0.00105**
Tobacco -0.11255*** 0.07752*** -0.08576 0.00824 -0.00197** 0.00041 0.00065 Prepared Foods 0.32408*** 0.03619** -0.00828 -0.02791 -0.05937*** -0.00975*** -0.00518***
Spices 0.05445 -0.00114 0.00548 -0.00434 -0.00663 -0.00019 0.00094
MODEL COMMODITY PPRICES
Meat Egg & Milk Legumes Fruit &V. Edible Oil Tobacco
Rice 0.00812*** -0.00595*** -0.00734*** -0.00685*** 0.03225*** -0.00197**
Non Rice Staple -0.00116 -0.00157*** 0.00265*** -0.00077 0.00336*** 0.00041 Fish -0.00518*** -0.00065** 0.00213*** -0.00115*** 0.00105** 0.00065
Meat 0.00171 0.00174*** 0.00201*** 0.00172** -0.00248*** 0.00010
Eggs and Milk 0.00174*** 0.00494*** 0.00025 -0.00026 0.00109*** 0.00064*
Legume 0.00201*** 0.00025 0.00984*** -0.00165*** 0.00435*** -0.00016 Fruit & Vegetable 0.00172*** -0.00026 -0.00165*** 0.01554*** -0.00307*** 0.00211***
Edible Oil -0.00248*** 0.00109*** 0.00435*** -0.00307*** -0.03502*** 0.00052
Tobacco 0.00010 0.00064* -0.00016 0.00211*** 0.00052 -0.00243***
Prepared Food -0.00524*** 0.00028 -0.01157*** -0.00577*** -0.00280*** -0.00016
Spices -0.00134 -0.00050 -0.00051 0.00016 0.00073 0.00028
MODEL
Commodity Prices Total Budget Shares
Dummy Effect on Budget Share Household Size Prepared
Foods Spices Lower Middleb Higher
Rice -0.05937*** -0.00663*** -0.09448*** 0.00071 -0.02806 0.02734*** 0.08320***
Non Rice Staple -0.00975*** -0.00019 0.04206*** -0.00612 0.04264 -0.03652*** 0.02113***
Fish -0.00518*** 0.00095*** -0.00238 0.00146 -0.00165 0.00020 0.00291**
Meat -0.00524*** -0.00134*** -0.02403*** 0.01526*** -0.01567 0.00041 0.00077 Eggs and Milk 0.00028 -0.00050*** -0.01363*** 0.00959*** -0.00665 -0.00294 -0.00061 Legumes -0.01157*** -0.00051 -0.00564*** 0.00232 -0.00281 0.00049 -0.00926***
Fruit & Vegetable -0.00577*** 0.00016 -0.00285* 0.00689*** -0.00992 0.00303 -0.00810***
Edible Oil -0.00280*** 0.00073* -0.02179*** -0.00195 -0.00339 0.00533** 0.00054 Tobacco -0.00016 0.00028 0.05946*** -0.02012*** 0.02306 -0.00293 -0.03281***
Prepared Foods 0.10363*** -0.00408*** 0.06585*** -0.00823** 0.00339 0.00484 -0.05361***
Spices -0.00407 0.01115 -0.00257 0.00019 -0.00093 0.00074 -0.00417
Note:
* : p < .10 ; ** : p < 0.05; *** : bp < 0.01
a, b, c: parameter estimates are recovered by applying the model’s restrictions.
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Table 6.10 The Results Summary:
Number of statistically significant Estimates
Summarized from the estimation results with LA/AIDS Model:
SUSENAS Micro Data East Java, Indonesia
TABLE magnitudes of parameter estimates and the fitness of the model performance.
In the tables, one observes the coefficient of each parameter and their corresponding statistical significance as indicated by p-values. The model was estimated with imposition of homogeneity and symmetry restrictions.
As can be followed in the tables, own price, budget shares and household size determined significantly the variation of food consumption of the households investigated with significant level mostly 0.01. The presence of dummy for income groups indicated also their significant influence, with exception for some food groups, in which their presence in the model is not insignificant. The income group dummies work mostly in both manners:
shifting the curve and changing the slope of related demand curve for each food group.
Thus, households from different income groups will behave differently in their consumption of the same food group.
In term of sign and magnitude, all own prices displayed satisfying performance. They affects significantly different from zero, and move in the directions that conform theory consistently.
Concerning the cross price parameters, not all of them display a significant influence statistically. But this is not surprising. In the situation where any food group dominates the share of household‘s budget, it is possible that the presence of the other not significant. The
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model represents the real food consumption of households in East Java plausibly. This holds for both areas under studied, urban and rural.