The tecl~i~ological potential to adapt

Nearly all agricultural impact studies conducted over the past five years have considered some tech~~ological options for adapting t o climate change.

Among those t h a t offer promise are

Seasonal changes and sowing dates. For frost-limited growing areas (i.e., temperate and cold areas), warming could extend t h e season, allowing planting of longer maturity annual varieties t h a t achieve higher yields (e.g., Le Houerou, 1990; R,owntree, 1990a, 1990b). For short-season crops such as wheat, rice, barley, oats, and many vegetable crops, exten- sion of the growing season may allow Inore crops per year, fall planting, or, where warming leads t o regular summer highs above critical thresh- olds, a split season with a short summer fallow. For subtropical and tropical areas where growing season is limited by precipitation or where the cropping already occurs throughout the year, the ability t o extend the growing season may be more limited depending on how precipita- tion patterns change. A study for Thailaad found t h a t yield losses in the warmer season were pa.rtially offset by gains in the cooler season (Parry et al., 1992).

Different crop variety or species. For most major crops, varieties exist with a wide range of maturities and climatic tolerances. For example, Matthews et al. (1994a, 1994b) identified wide genetic variability among rice varieties a.s a reasonably easy respoilse t o spikelet sterility in rice t h a t occurred in simula.tions for South and Southeast Asia. Studies in Australia showed t11a.t responses t o climate change are strongly cultivar dependent (Wang et al., 1992). Longer-season cultivars were shown t o provide a steadier yield under more variable conditions (Connor and Wang, 1993). In general, such changes may lead t o higher yields or may only partly offset losses in yields or profitability. Crop diversification in Canada (Cohen et al., 1992) and in China (Hulme et al., 1992) has been identified as an adaptive response.

New crop varieties. T h e genetic base is broad for most crops but limited for some (e.g., kiwi fruit). A study by Easterling et al. (1993) explored how hypothetical new varieties would respond t o climate change (also reported in McKenney et al., 1992). Heat, drought, and pest resistance;

salt tolerance; and general improvements in crop yield and quality would be beneficial (Smit, 1993). Genetic engineering and gene mapping of- fer the potential for introducing a wider range of traits. Difficulty in assuring traits are efficaciously expressed in the full plant, consumer

concerns, profitability, and regulatory hurdles have slowed the introduc- tion of genetically engineered mrieties compared with early estimates (Reilly, 1989; Caswell et al., 1994).

Water supply and irrigation systems. Across studies, irrigated agricul- ture is, in general, less negatively affected than dryland agriculture, but adding irrigation is costly and subject t o t h e availability of water sup- plies. Climate change will also affect future water supplies. There is wide scope for enhancing irrigation efficiency through adoption of drip irrigation systeins and other water-conserving technologies (FAO, 1989;

1991) but successful adoptioil will require substantial changes in how irrigation systems are managed and how water resources are priced. Re- cause inadequate water systenls a.re responsible for current problems of land degradation, and because conlpetition for water is likely t o increase, there likely will be a, need for changes in the management and pricing of water regardless of whether and how climate changes (Vaux, 1990, 1991;

World Bank, 1994). Tillage method and incorporation of crop residues are other means of increasing the useful water supply for cropping.

Other inputs and inoizagenzeizt adjustments. Added nitrogen and other fertilizers would liliely be necessary t o talie full a.dvantage of the CO;! ef- fect. Where high levels of nitrogen are applied, nitrogen not used by the crop may leach into the groundwa,ter, run off into surface water, or be released froin the soil as nitrous oside. Additional nitrogen in ground- water and surface water has been linlied t o health effects in humans and affects aquatic ecosystems. Studies have also considered a wider range of adjustments in tillage, grain drying, and other field operations (Kaiser et al., 1993; Smit, 1993).

Tillage. Minimum and reduced tillage techilologies in combination with planting of cover crops a,ild green illallure crops offer substantial possibil- ities for reversing existing soil organic matter, soil erosion, and nutrient loss and combatiilg potential further losses due t o climate change (Ras- mussen and Collins, 1991; Logan, 1991; Edwards et al., 1992; Langdale et al., 1992; Peterson et al., 1993; Brinkman and Sombroek, 1996). Re- duced and minimum tillage techniques have spread widely in some coun- tries but are more limited in other regions. There is considerable current interest in transferring these techniques t o other regions (Cameron and Oram, 1994).

Improved short-term cliinate prediction. Linking agricultural manage- ment t o seasonal climate predictions (currently largely based on ENSO), where such predictions can be ina.de with reliability, can allow manage- ment t o a.da.pt iilcreilleiltally t o cliinate change. Managementlclimate

Table 7. Speed of adoption for seine inajor adaptation measures.

A d j ~ s t ~ m e n t

Adaptation time (yrs) References

Variety adoption 3-14 Dalrymple, 1986; Griliches, 1957;

Plucknett et al., 1987; CIMMYT, 1991.

Dams a n d irrigation 50-100 James and Lee, 1971; Howe, 1971.

Variety development 8-15 Plucknett et al., 1987; Knudson, 1988.

Tillage systems 10-12 Hill et al., 1994; Dickey et al., 1987;

Schertz, 1988.

New crop adoption: Soybeails 15-30 FAO, Agrostat, various years.

Opening new lands 3-10 Rledvedev, 1987; Plusquellec, 1990.

Irrigation equipment 20-25 Turner and Anderson, 1980.

Transportation syst,em 3-5 A. Talvitie, World Bank, personal communication, 1994.

Fertilizer adoption 10 Pieri, 1992; Thompson and Wan, 1992.

predictor links are a.n importa.nt and growing part of agricultural exten- sion in both developed and developing countries (McI<eon et al., 1990, 1993; Nichols and Wong, 1990).

6.2. T h e socioecoi~oinic capability t o adapt

MThile identifying inany specific techi~ological adaptation options, Smit (1993) concluded t h a t necessary research on their cost and ease of adop- tion had not yet been conducted.

One measure of the potential for adaptation is t o consider the historical record on past speeds of adoption of new technologies (Table 7). Adoption of new or different technologies depends on inany factors: economic incentives, varying resource and climatic conditions, the existence of other technologies (tra.nsportatio11 systems a a d ma.rl<ets), the availability of information, and the remaining econoillic life of equipillellt and structures (e.g., dams and water supply systems).

Specific technologies can only provide a successful adaptive response if they are adopted in appropriate situations. A variety of issues have been considered, including land-use planning, watershed management, disaster vulnerability assessment, consideration of port and rail adequacy, trade pol- icy, and t h e various programs countries use t o encourage or control produc- tion, limit food prices, and manage resource inputs t o agriculture (CAST, 1992; US OTA, 1993; Smit, 1993; Reilly et al., 1994; Singh, 1994). For example, studies suggest that current agricultural iilstitutions and policies in the USA may discoura.ge fa,rln lllanageillent a.daptation strategies such as

altering crop mix by supporting prices of crops not well-suited t o a changing cliinate, providing disaster payments wlieii crops fail, or prohibiting imports through import quotas (Lewandrowski and Brazee, 1993).

Existing gaps between best yields and the average farm yields remain un- explained, but many are due in part t o socioeconomic considerations (Oram and Hojjati, 1995; Bumb, 1995); this adds considerable uncertainty t o esti- mates of the potential for adaptation, particularly in developing countries.

For example, Baethgen (1994) fouild t h a t a better selection of wheat variety nificant resiliency. Whether techilologies meet the self-described needs of peasant farmers is critical in their adaptation (CBceres, 1993). Other stud- ies document how individuals cope with environmental disasters, identifying how strongly political, econoniic, and ethilic factors interact t o facilitate or prevent coping in cases raiigiilg froin the dust bowl disaster in the USA t o floods in Bangladesh t o faillines in the Sudan, Ethiopia, and Mozambique (McGregor, 1994). These consideratioiis indicate the need for local capabil- ity t o develop and evaluate potential adaptations that fit changing conditions (COSEPUP, 1992). Iillportailt strategies for improving the ability of agricul- ture t o respond t o diverse demands and pressures, drawn from past efforts t o transfer technology and provide assistailce for agricultural development, include

Improved tra.ining and general education of populations dependent on agriculture, particularly in countries wliere education of rural workers is currently limited. Agronomic experts can provide guidance on possible strategies and techilologies that may be effective. Farmers must evaluate and compare these options t o find those appropriate for their needs and the circumstances of their farm.

Identification of the present vulnerabilities of agricultural systems, causes of resource degradation, and existing systems t h a t are resilient and sustainable. Strategies t h a t are effective in dealing with current climate variability and resource degradation are also likely t o increase resilience and adaptability in the face of future climate change.

Agricultural research centers a.nd experiment stations can examine t h e

"robustness" of present farining systeills (i.e., their resilience t o extremes

of heat, cold, frost, water shortage, pest dama.ge, and other factors) and also test the robustiless of new farming strategies as they are developed t o meet changes in climate, technology, prices, costs, and other factors.

Interactive communication that brings research results t o farmers and farmers' problems, perspectives, and successes t o researchers is an es- sential part of the agricultural research system.

Agricultural research provides a fouildation for adaptation. Genetic vari- ability for most major crops is wide relative t o projected climate change.

Preservation and effective use of this genetic material would provide t h e basis for new variety development. Coiltinually changing climate is likely t o increase the value of networl<s of esperiment stations t h a t can share genetic material and research results.

Food programs and other social security programs would provide in- surance against local supply changes. International famine and hunger programs need t o be considered with respect t o their adequacy.

Transportation, distribution, aad ma.rket integration provide the infras- tructure t o supply food during crop sllortfalls that might be induced in some regions because of clinlate mriability or worsening of agricultural conditions.

Existing policies may limit efficient response t o climate change. Changes in policies such as crop sul~sidp schemes, land tenure systems, water pricing and allocation, and iilternational trade barriers could increase the adaptive capability of agriculture.

Many of the above strategies will be beneficial regardless of how or whether climate changes. Goals and objectives among countries and farm- ers vary considerably. Current climate coilditions and likely future climates also vary. Building the capa.bility t o detect change and evaluate possible re- sponses is fundamental t o successful a.daptation. Thus, even without having clear predictions of clima.te change, is it possible t o identify some strategies t h a t reduce potential vulnerability.

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