The capital output ratios compiled for the US, UK, and the FRG, for their economies as a whole; major branches and selected industries were found to bear considerable resem- blance as to levels and directions of trend. This may enhance the users' confidence in the application of these ratios as a tool for the establishment of economic scenarios for these countries.
In addition, these ratios might also fill a gap in the projections on industrial de- velopment in other countries, which do not dispose of detailed st atistical information.
Specifically, one thinks of countries where these capital output ratios might be useful as one of the criteria deciding on the selection of industries for reconstruction and develop- ment, i.e., in Eastern Europe where capital output ratios moreover are important for the estimation of total capital requirements.
References
Barca, F. and Magnani, M., 1989, L'industria Fra Capitale e Lavoro, Societa editrice il Mulino, Bologna.
Doblin, C., 1978, Capital Formation, Capital Stock 1850-1975 (US, UK and FRG), RM- 78-70, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Doblin, C., 1989a, Long-term Structural Changes of GDP, Gross Investments, Capital Stock and Labor Input, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Lax- enburg, Austria, 31 August 1989, (computer print-outs).
Doblin, C., 1989b, Historical Series: US (since 1980) and UK (since 1902), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (computer print-outs).
Rosa, G. and Siesto, V., 1985,
I2
Capitales Fisso Industriale, Societa editrice il Mulino, Bologna.Schmidt, L., 1986, Reproduzierbares Anlage verm6gen in erweiterter Bereichsgliederung, Wirtschajt und Statistik 7: 499.
Statistisches Bundesamt, Volkswirtschajtliche Gesamt Rechnungen, Serie 18, Reihe S7, Lange Reihen 1950-1984.
United Nations (UN), 1979, Guidelines on Statistics of Tangible Assets, Statistical Paper, Sales No. ST/ESA/Ser. M68, New York.
United Nations (UN), 1986, 1985 GDP at Current Prices, and Indez Numbers 1985=100 for Constant Priced GDP, National Accounts Statistics, Main Aggregates, Part 11, Tables 1.10 and 1.11.
United Nations (UN), 1989, National Accounts Statistics, Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables, Part 11, Sales No. E.89.XVII.7, p. 1555, New York.
US Department of Commerce, 1986a, Fized Reproducible Tangible Wealth in the United States, Revised estimates. Survey of Current Business, Vol. 66, No. 1.
US Department of Commerce, 198613, The National Income and Product Amounts of the United States, 1929-1982, Statistical Tables, September.
US Department of Commerce, 1989, Gross and Net Stock of Fized Reproducible Tangible Wealth, 1970 to 1987, 1989 Statistical Abstract, Table 744, p. 458.
Appendiz Table 1 a. Selected countries: share of residential building in grand total gross fixed capital stock (residential and non-residential) (in percent).
At 1980 Constant Prices
1950 1960 1970 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
USA-UN statistics 36.6 36.4 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.3
National ~ u b l i c a t i o n s ~ ) 37.5 36.2 35.6 35.3 35.1 35.1 35.2 34.4 35.2 35.3
United Kingdom-UN statistics a) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.8
National Publicat ions 30.0 28.6 31.4 31.4 32.8 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.8
Germany, F.R.-UN statistics 43.6 43.6 43.6 43.6 43.7 43.7 43.6
National Publications 47.8 45.7 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.6 44.6
Sweden-UN statistics Finland-UN statistics Norway-UN statistics
( N e t Fixed Capital Stock) Japan-UN statistics
( N e t Fixed Capital Stock) (25.4) (24.9) (24.4) (24.0) (23.4) (22.7) (22.3)
Sources: United Nations statistics, at 1980 constant prices (see National Accounts Statistics. Main aggregates and detailed tables, 1986 Parts I and 11, New York, 1989).
National publications:
USA (1982 constant prices) (see Commerce Department, Survey of Current Business, August 1989 and earlier issues).
United Kingdom (1985 constant prices), see Central Statistical Office, 1990 Annual Abstract of Statistics, Table 14.15 and earlier issues. Also, National Amounts, 1984 edition.
Germany, F.R. (1980 constant prices), Statistiches Bundesamt: Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen, Fachserie 18, Lange Reihen 1960-1984, S 8, Updated with Statistiches Jahrbuch.
a) 1964
Appendix Table 2a. Selected countries: share of government services in non-residential gross fixed capital stock (in percent).
At 1980 Constant Prices
1950 1960 1970 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
USA-UN statistics 24.0 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.1
National Publications0) 31.4 33.6 34.8 31.8 31.4 31.1 30.9 30.5 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3
United Kingdom-UN statisticsb) 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.6 8.7 8.9
UK National Publications 12.9 ") 14.2 Germany, F.R.
- UN statistics 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7
- National ~ublications") ' 16.1 14.0 13.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 Norway-UN statistics
Net Fixed Capital Stock Sweden-UN statistics
Finland-UN statistics 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.4
Japan-UN statistics
Net Fixed Capital Stock NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sources: see Appendix Table la.
a) 1964
Appendiz Table 3a. USA: Share of major branches in non-residential gross fixed capital stock, 1950-1988 (in percent).
Activity Based on 1982 Constant Priced Capital Stock
of owner 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988
Agriculture 5.2 4.9 4.2 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
Mining 5.4 6.7 5.8 5.2 5.5 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.1
Manufacturing 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.0 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.8
Public utilities 7.7 8.5 8.4 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3
Construction 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1 .O 1 .O
Trade, wholesale
and retail 4.3 4.0 4.8 5.3 6.9 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.6
Transport 19.1 12.8 8.8 7.6 5.7 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.3
Communication 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7
Finance, insurance
real estate 7.0 7.7 8.9 9.5 8.9 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1
Other services, excl.
government 14.2 12.7 12.5
Government 24.0") 23.4") 23.1")
Other services, incl.
government 33.9 36.8 39.0 38.6 35.8 35.9
Total, excluding
residential 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
(Billions of 1982 Dollars) 2905 3955 5725 6808 7950 9075 9319 9557 9829 a) U N data (see Appendix Table 2a).
Source: USA. Commerce Department, Survey of Current Business 1986, January, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 56-57; and Commerce Department, Survey of Current Business 1989, August, Vol. 69, No. 8, pp. 90-92.
Appendu Table 4a. United Kingdom: Share of major branches in non-residential gross fixed capital stock, 1964-1986 (in percent).
Activity Based on 1970, 1980, and 1985 Constant Priced Capital Stock
of owner 1964 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1986 1987
Agriculture 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.6
Mining 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2") 4.2d) 4.2 4.9
Manufacturing 32.8") 32.7") 29.8") 28.6") 27.0~) 25.1d) 24. gd)
Public utilities 13.1 13.2 12.3 12.7 12.2 11.5 11.4
Construction 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5
Trade, wholesale
and retail b) b) b) b) 7.9 8.6 8.7
Transport 14.9 ' 14.5 10.7 10.7 9.0 7.2 6.8
Communication 3.5 3.5 4.5 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.0
Finance, insurance, other services,
)
16.4}
16.7}
21.7 8.3 11.2 11.937.2 14.4 15.2 14.5
excl. government
Government 12.9 12.9 14.2' 8.3 8.7 8.9
Total, excluding
residential 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
.€Billions at 1970 Prices 98.7 103.0 128.1
LBillions at 1980 Prices 638.5
LBillions at 1985 Prices 927.1 1023.1 1044.0 1068.6
a ) Manufacturing includes oil refining.
b) Trade included with other services, excluding government.
c) Oil refining excluded from manufacturing, included with mining.
d) Oil refining included with manufacturing unknown.
*
This was double checked. In the early 1970s, UK share of government had risen much above the level of the 1980s.Notes and Sources:
1964-1970 based on 1970 constant prices. Source: UK 1979 Statistical Abstract; Table 14.19 and earlier ones.
1975 based on 1980 constant prices. Source: UK 1989 Statistical Abstract, Table 14.16.
1980-1985 based on 1985 constant prices. Source: UK National Accounts; 1989 edition, Table 14.8.
Note: 1980-1986 structures adjusted with d a t a in United Nations. National Accounts, Part 11.
Appendiz Table 5a. Germany, F.R.: Share of major branches in non-residential gross fixed capital stock, 1950-1988 (in percent).
Activity Based on 1980 Constant Priced Capital Stock "1
of owner 1950
Agriculture, For. Fisheries 17.6 Mining
Manufacturing Public utilities Construction
Trade, wholesale & retail Transport
Communication Finance, real estate,
insurance 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6
Other services,
excl. government 6.2 8.3 12.8 16.4 17.0 17.4
Government, excl.
road service 16.1 14.0 15.4 14.8~) 14.7~) 14.6~) 14.3
Total, excl. residential 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Billions of 1980 D.Mark 1185 2181 3282 3695 3785 3885 3981
Billions of 1976 D.Mark 564.1") a) 1950 based on cohstant prices of 1976 b) United Nations data
E = Estimated Notes and Sources:
The Statistical Universe consists of: Private non-residential enterprises plus Government, excluding "Tiefbaun (roads).
1950 = See Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen, Lange Reihen 1950-1984, Fachserie 18, Reihe S7.
1960-1987 = See Statistisches Jahrbuch, 1989, Table 24.21.
1950 a t 1976 prices = See Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen, Lange Reihen 1950-1984, Fachserie 18, Reihe 7.
Note: A breakdown of the Energy sector became available in: Wirtschaft und Statistik, 711986, p. 199 for 1984.
Data for 1985, 1986, 1987 = See Statistisches Jahrbuch 1989.
Appendix Table 6a. Finland and Sweden: Share of major branches in non-residential gross fixed capital stock (1980 constant prices) (in percent).
Activity of owner 1980 1985 1986
Finland
Agriculture 12.5 11.8 11.6
Mining 0.5 0.5 0.5
Manufacturing 19.7 19.7 19.7
Construction 1.8 1.5 1.5
Public utilities 9.1 8.7 8.6
Trade 8.9 9.5 8.4
Transport & communication a) a ) 10.5
Government a) 24.5 24.6
Others 47.5") 23.8") 14.6")
Total, excl. residential 100.0 100.0 100.0
(Billions Fin. Marks, 1985 prices) (653) (1 118) (1 150) Sweden
Agriculture 6.9
Mining 1.2
Manufacturing 25.3
Construction 1.7
Public utilities 12.3
Trade 5.8
Tranport & communication 11.9
Government 23.3
Others 11.6
Total, excl. residential 100.0
(Billions of Swedish Kroner, 1980 prices) 1565 a) Includes "all others*.
Source: United Nations, 1986 National Accounts Statistics, Parts I and 11.
Appendiz Table 7a. USA: Selected industries' share in non-residential gross fixed capital stock, 1950-1988 (in percent).
Activity Based on 1982 Constant Priced Capital Stock "1
of owner 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988
Selected industries Energy
Coal mining 4.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Oil & gas extraction 4.4 6.0 5.1 4.4 4.5 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.2
Oil refining, coal proc. 1 .O 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Electricity 5.3 5.9 6.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5
Gas supply 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Total Energy -- 16.8 15.5 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.6
Manufacturing
Food 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Primary metals 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
Machinery (non-electric) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Machinery (electric) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
Motor vehicles & equip. 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Chemical & allied 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
Paper & allied 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .O 1.0 1 .O 1.0
Stone, clay, glass 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Textile mills 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0 t hers 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6
Total manufacturing,
excl. oil refining 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.0 14.5 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.9
Transportation
Railroad 14.8 7.7 5.3 4.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2
Air 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Communication
Telephone & telegraph 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3
Radio, T.V. 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total industries, excl. residential
Billions of 1982 US$ 2905 3955 5725 6808 7950 9075 9319 9557 9829
Source: See Appendix Table 3.
Appendix Table 8a. United Kingdom: Selected industries' share in non-residential gross fixed capital stock, 1966-1987 (in percent).
Activity of owner 1966 1970 1975 1980 1985 1986 1987
Selected industries Energy
Coal mining
Oil & gas extraction Oil refining (incl.
coal proc.) Electricity
Gas supply 1.8 2.1 2.0
13.5 14.0 Manufacturing
Food, drink (+ tobacco) 2.2 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
Primary metals 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.5
Machinery (non-electric) 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2
Machinery (electric) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
Motor vehicles & equip. 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
Chemical & allied 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0
Stone and clay
Textile mills 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1
Paper & allied 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.2
Transportation
Railroad 7.4 6.1 5.4 4.4
Sea 2.9 2.7 1.1
Air 0.8 0.5
Communication
Postal services (incl. radio & TV) 4.0 3.4 Total
Billion Eat 1970 prices 128.1
Billion Eat 1980 prices 638.5
Billion Eat 1985 prices 927.1 1023.1 1044.0 1068.6
Source: See Appendix Table 4.
Appendiz Table 9a. Germany, F.R.: Selected industries' share in non-residential gross fixed capital stock, 1970-1987 (in percent).
Activity At 1980 Constant Prices
of owner 1950 1960 1970 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Selected industries Energy
Coal mining 1.0
Oil & gas extraction Oil refining (incl.
coal proc.) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6
Electricity (incl.
district heating) 7.2
Gas supply 0.6
Manufacturing
Food 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8
Drink 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Primary metals 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Machinery (non-electric) 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Machinery (electric) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
(Motor) vehicles and repair (Strassenfahrzeug incl.
bicycles) 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
Chemical & allied 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3
Paper & allied 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Stone & clay (no glass) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1 .O
Textile mills 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Tmnsportation
Railroad 6.5 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8
Air
Communication Postal services
(incl. radio, TV) 2.6 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.5
Total private non-residential Enterprises (+ government)
Billion DM a t 1980 prices 1184.6 2180.6 3282.0 3694.6 3784.8 3885.0 3981.3 Source: See Appendix Table 5a.
Appendix Table 10a. Capital/Output Ratios: Total and major branches in the United States, United Kingdom and Germany, F.R.
Total and major
a) Germany, F.R. Capital stock of total private enterpriese, excluding residential (and govern- ment).
Note: Capital output ratios result from: (1) gross fixed capital stock, excluding residential and (2) GDP gross value added. The capital output ratios are compiled from capital stock and value added at 1982 prices (USA); 1985 prices (United Kingdom) and 1980 prices (Germany, F.R.).
Sources: For gross fixed capital stock, see Appendix Tables 3a-5a. GNP-Gross Value Added, see for United States, Commerce Department, The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States 1929-1984. Statistical Tables, Washington, D.C., 1986. Updated with US
Statistical Abstract 1989.
For United Kingdom, Gross value added at 1985 prices was not available in national or interna- tional publications. For that reason, the United Nations data for 1985 value added was used, a t current prices in billion L , and extrapolated back t o 1980 and forwarded t o 1987 with index numbers of constant priced value added (see United Nations, National Accounts, Part 11, Stan- dard Tables 1.10 and 1.11 for the United Kingdom).
For Gemany, F.R., GDP Gross Value Added represents UBruttoWertschopfung" of total non- residential, private enterprises. See Statistisches Bundesamt, 1989 Statistisches Jahrbuch, Table 24.5, pp. 546-548.
Appendix Table l l a . Capital/Output Ratios: Selected industries in the United States, United Kingdom and Germany, F.R.
Selected
Selected
industries 1960 1970 1980 1984 1985 1986 1987
Germany, F. R.
Coal mining 3.7A
Oil & gas extraction
Oil refining 1 .2A
Electricity 9.0A
Gas supply 7.3A
Food and drink
Food 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4
Drink 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.4
Primary metals 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.0
Machinery, non-electric 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6
Machinery, electric 2.1 2.2 1.4 1.4
Motor vehicles & equipt. 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0
Chemical & allied 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8
Paper & alliedP 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.2
Stone, clay, glass 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.4
Textile 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0
Railroad 9.3 13.9 13.6 14.9
Air transport
Telephone, telegraph
Radio, televisionR 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.2
A = See Energy sector gross fixed capital stock for 1984 in Wirtschaft und Statistik 1986, pp. 499.
P = Excludes printing in the USA; includes printing in the United Kingdom.
R = Radio and television are included in postal services in Germany, F.R.