This thesis made use of the phenomenon of age-heaping to assess human capital in today’s developing regions mainly for the time period from 1880 to 1960. Although the age-heaping methodology is still quite new in the field of economic history and it captures only a very basic aspect of human capital, many studies have demonstrated now its usefulness as a proxy for basic numerical skills. This thesis contributed to this strand of literature and presented new empirical evidence for assessing the historical roots and determinants of today’s educational situation in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. The focus in these studies was always on the aggregated level of countries. For further research, it would be most interesting to exploit additional sources and examine the mechanisms that drive human capital accumulation on the micro data level.
Chapter 2 presented a study that contributed new empirical evidence to the colonial legacy debate that discusses the role of institutions, geography and human capital for long-term economic development. The crucial question addressed was whether institutions are fundamentally more important to start the process of a positive economic development (as promoted by Acemoglu et al. 2001) or whether growth and human capital accumulation come first and lead then to institutional improvement (as brought forward by Glaeser et al. 2004). New empirical evidence to the role of human capital within this controversial debate was provided by using the age-heaping methodology. The chapter presented estimates of basic numeracy levels of 68 former colonies in Africa, Asia, and the Americas mainly for the 19th and 20th century, for a few countries even for the 18th century. To address the problem of endogeneity an instrumental variable approach was used. In contrast to Glaeser et al.’s (2004) human capital argument, this study assessed not only the human capital of the settler population, but focused on the whole population, i.e. also on the human capital of the indigenous populations. The new
human capital estimates indicate that the educational level of the indigenous populations also varied a lot. Additionally, possible spill-over effects from (sometimes small) migrant communities on the indigenous population have to be taken into account. The empirical results indicate that colonial institutions did of course influence the long-term economic development of these countries. However, the results show that human capital played also an important role, and instrumental variable effects might have run through this causality chain.
Chapter 3 of my thesis examined the development and persistence of human capital in Africa since the late 19th century. It presented new estimates on basic numeracy for 34 African countries for the period 1880 to 1960. As data on human capital in Africa before 1960 are scarce, this new data set gives valuable insights into the state of the educational situation during the colonial period in Africa. The evidence reveals large differences between countries and regions: Numeracy levels were generally highest in the Southern region of Africa. Also the French settler colonies Algeria and Tunisia had high numeracy levels around 1900. In contrast, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Comoros were the countries with ABCC values less than 50 points during this period which ranks them very low not only in Africa but also worldwide. Regression results suggest that primary school enrolment ratios and the presence of European settlers in the colonies played the most important roles in determining basic numerical skills.
The second part of Chapter 3 addressed the question of the persistence of human capital. Using the new human capital estimates from the colonial period and comparing them to current literacy levels in Africa, a strong path-dependency was observable.
Additionally, even after controlling for factors like school enrolment and public expenditure on education, regression results indicate that the numeracy level 100 years ago still has a significant influence on literacy rates today in Africa. Thus, at least
colonial period. However, I found also strong support for the possibility of escaping this
“trap of early human capital underdevelopment” through consequent investment in schooling.
In Chapter 4 the focus was on gender inequality in education. Here as well, the age-heaping approach is used to trace the human capital development in 14 Asian countries during the first half of the 20th century. The numeracy estimates revealed high variation of educational levels among the countries in the Asian region: while most Southeast Asian countries had already high numeracy levels during the first half of the 20th century, most South and West Asian countries are characterised by low numerical skills. Regression results identified enrolment rates, GDP per capita and female voting rights as important determinants of numeracy. Female voting rights can be interpreted as a proxy for the attitude of a society towards women’s role in that society. Additionally, the regression results indicate that cultural factors (religion) impacted the accumulation of human capital.
The development of the gender gap over time revealed a U-shaped path: At low numeracy levels gender equality is high. As numeracy increases, gender equality decreases initially before rising to high levels again, declines and increases again with higher numeracy levels. This observation was further tested by performing a panel analysis. Its results confirm the U-hypothesis for Asia during the first half of the 20th century. The results indicate that the attitude of a society towards women’s role in social life as well as the level of economic development of a country is particularly important for an equal distribution of education between the genders.
Chapter 5 contributed to the age-heaping methodology itself. The traditional Whipple index captures the heaping behaviour of adults, which is based on multiples of five. In this chapter a reformulated Whipple index, respectively ABCC index, for the age
heaping behaviour of young adolescents. In contrast to adults, this age group tends to round its age to even numbers, which are 16, 18, 20, and 22. The study presented graphical and analytical analyses that show the high reliability of this new index.
Furthermore, when data sources provide only information on young adults (as is often the case for data on military recruits or from marriage registers) and not on older age groups, it is possible to estimate the average heaping behaviour of the older population on the basis of the heaping level of adolescents. The analyses show that this new index is a valuable and reliable tool for extending age-heaping analysis to the adolescents and young adult group and that it could spur further research in this field.
6.1. References
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., and Robinson, J.A. (2001). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5): 1369-1401.
Glaeser, E.L., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., and Shleifer, A. (2004). Do Institutions Cause Growth? Journal of Economic Growth, 9(3): 271-303.