The main objective of this work was to provide some empirical basis on year-by-year land conversion for modeling land-use/cover change within IIASA’s LUC project (Fischer et al., 1996). The project aims at setting up a complete account of land conversion which would help to identify the processes and magnitudes of change affecting China’s land base. This paper relies on recent land statistics of China prepared by SLA, focusing on conversion of farmland to other land-use categories, including horticulture, forestry, grassland, and urban/infrastructure development.
The statistics prepared by SLA include estimates of cultivated land at the beginning and the end of each year based on detailed survey information available. The SLA statistics show the extent of land having received a detailed survey and the estimate of cultivated land obtained without such detailed survey. Table 1 provides a compilation of the respective estimates for recent years. Between 1988 and 1995 the cultivated land listed as having received detailed survey increased from about 8.9 million hectares to 128.3 million hectares. Mirroring this situation, the estimates relating to cultivated land without such detailed survey decreased from 113.7 million ha to 3.2 million ha.
In the process of obtaining improved and detailed survey information, the estimates of total farmland derived from these two ‘pools’ of cultivated land were corrected upwards from 122.6 million ha in 1988 to 131.1 million hectares in 1995. This has resulted in an increasing estimate of cultivated land despite of apparent farmland
losses during that period. When interpreting this statistical information, it is therefore important to separate these two elements, namely, that on one hand there is a real ongoing process of farmland loss due to economic and environmental driving forces, while on the other hand estimates of cultivated land have been corrected upwards due to more detailed survey information that has become available during recent years.
Table 1. SLA estimates of China’s cultivated land (thousand ha)
Extents at the beginning of the year Extents at the end of the year
Year With
1988 8,916 113,687 122,603 8,770 113,528 122,298
1989 13,979 107,988 121,967 13,833 108,105 121,938
1990 22,999 99,411 122,410 22,771 99,739 122,510
1991 41,602 81,659 123,261 41,256 81,982 123,238
1992 59,439 64,984 124,422 59,202 64,926 124,128
1993 83,864 42,810 126,674 83,607 42,745 126,351
1994 108,672 21,634 130,306 108,427 21,441 129,868
1995 128,313 3,209 131,522 128,254 2,859 131,113
Source: State Land Administration (1989 to 1996)
The large difference between estimates of total cultivated land in 1995 of 95.0 million hectares published by SSB and of 131.1 million hectares as communicated by SLA (SLA, 1996) have invited various interpretations of the causes for this massive underreporting. The general conclusion has been that the grim outlook presented by Brown (1995) has to be revised in favor of improved prospects for Chinese agriculture, both for the sake of a larger available resource base as well as for consequently reduced estimates of input use per hectare of cultivated land.
Here we do not want to follow up on such discussions but rather concentrate on the regional distribution of discrepancies between estimates of the two organizations.
Figure 16 compares by province the SSB and SLA estimates of total cultivated land for (end-year) 1995. For all of China, the SLA estimate is some 38 percent higher than the value published by SSB. For eight provinces the discrepancies are less than 20 percent (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hunan, and Qinghai)9. On the
9 Beijing is the only province-level administrative unit for which SSB reports an estimate of cultivated land higher than SLA, though the difference is small (less than 4 percent).
other extreme, for seven provinces and autonomous regions the discrepancies range from 57 to 170 percent (Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia).
For the remaining provinces, discrepancies fall within the range of 20 to 50 percent.
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Area (1000 ha) Beijing
Hebei
Nei Mongol
Jilin
Shanghai
Zhejiang
Fujian
Shandong
Hubei
Guangdong
Hainan
Guizhou
Xijang
Gansu
Ningxia
SSB SLA
Figure 16. A comparison of SSB and SLA province-level estimates of total cultivated land in 1995 (end-year).
This analysis suggests that there is a strong geographical bias in SSB underreporting. While the estimates for the central and eastern part of China are quite comparable, the SLA estimates for south-west China (Yunnan, Guizhou) are more than twice the SSB levels. Large differences, of about 50 percent, are found also for some northern provinces (Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi).
A summary of regional conversion balances derived from the SLA land statistics is presented in Table 2, showing aggregate totals for the period 1988-1995 of increases, decreases, net increases, and abandonment of cultivated land. Also shown is the estimate of cultivated land at the end of 1995 compiled by SLA and a corrected estimate for the beginning of 1988 calculated by the authors based on the 1995 SLA estimate and the reported net changes of cultivated land. The column showing the percentage of cultivated land lost during the study period is based on the estimated stock of cultivated land in 1988.
Table 2. Balance of cultivated land in China during 1988-1995 (in thousand ha)
Region Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Begin 1988
End 1995
Increase Decrease Net Increase
% net increase
Aban-doned
North 29,250 28,910 455 795 -340 -1.16 45
Northeast 21,567 21,347 485 705 -220 -1.02 100
East 14,150 13,771 143 523 -379 -2.68 6
Central 12,040 11,757 127 411 -284 -2.35 2
South 9,958 9,947 458 469 -11 -0.11 24
Southwest 20,782 20,677 498 603 -105 -0.51 25
Plateau 976 991 36 21 15 1.54 2
Northwest 24,112 23,714 879 1,277 -398 -1.65 236
CHINA 132,835 131,113 3,082 4,804 -1722 -1.30 439
Source: State Land Administration (1989 to 1996), and calculations by the authors Accordingly, net diversions have been largest in the East and Central LUC economic regions, respectively 2.7 and 2.4 percent of the farmland in 1988. While construction and conversion to horticulture are mainly responsible for changes in the East region, conversion of farmland to horticulture, forestry and fish ponds were the principal driving forces of decrease in the Central region. Looking at conversion from and losses of cultivated land only, the Northwest region scores highest with 5.3 percent of the 1988 cultivated land converted to horticulture, forestry and for establishing
improved grassland, or lost due to disasters (e.g., desertification). Construction, conversion to horticulture and fish ponds are the dominating causes of an almost 5 percent gross decrease in the South region. All province-level results can be found in Appendix 2.
This study, based on recent data compiled by China’s SLA, has greatly improved our understanding of the magnitude and the fate of farmland in different regions of China. Still, much less is known about other major land categories. It is, therefore, suggested that exploitation of the growing potential of remote sensing and geographical information systems in analyzing macroscopic land use change processes should be emphasized in future work in addition and complementary to land statistics.
References
Brown, L.R. (1995): Who will feed China? New York: W.W. Norton.
SLA (1994): Department for land use planning of the State Land Administration, Research on the Overall Planning for National Land Use. Beijing: Science Press, 1994: 12-14. (in Chinese)
SLA (1996): Department for planning and finance of the State Land Administration, Summary of National Land Use during the Eighth Five-Year Plan, March, 1996.
Fischer, G., Ermoliev, Y., Keyzer, M.A., Rosenzweig, C. (1996): Simulating the socio-economic and biogeophysical driving forces of land-use and land-cover change:
the IIASA land-use change model. WP-96-010, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
IIASA (1998): http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/GIS/giswebpage, May 18, 1998.
Li, X. and Sun, L. (1997): Driving forces of arable land conversion in China. IR-97-076/Sept, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
SSB (1996): China Statistical Yearbook 1996. State Statistical Bureau, Beijing. China Statistical Publishing House, 1996: 355.
Wu, C., and Guo, H. (1994): Land Use in China. Beijing: Science Press, 1994: 105-110.
(in Chinese).
Yao, C. (1998): The current situation and tendency of economic forest in China, People Daily, 01-17-1998, No.F. (http://www.snweb.com/gb/people_daily/1998/01/17) (in Chinese).
Appendix 1:
Data sources
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1988, Beijing: 1989.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1989, Beijing: 1990.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1990, Beijing: 1991.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on Land of China in 1991, Beijing:
1992.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land Administration of China in 1992, Beijing: 1993.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on Land Administration of China in 1993, Beijing: 1994.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on Land Administration of China in 1994, Beijing: 1995.
State Land Administration, Statistical Information on Land Administration of China in 1995, Beijing: 1996.
Appendix 2:
Tables on balance of cultivated land during 1988-1995 at level of provinces and LUC economic regions
Table A2.1. Balance of cultivated land in North region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
Hebei 7,108 7,027 134 215 -81 -1.14 2
Shanxi 4,765 4,712 111 163 -52 -1.10 42
Shandong 8,025 7,971 154 208 -54 -0.68 0
Henan 8,441 8,327 47 161 -114 -1.35 1
NORTH 29,250 28,910 455 795 -340 -1.16 45
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.2. Balance of cultivated land in Northeast region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
% net change
Aban-doned
Liaoning 4,310 4,197 92 204 -112 -2.60 0
Jilin 5,768 5,683 84 169 -85 -1.47 1
Helongjiang 11,489 11,466 308 331 -23 -0.20 99
NORTH-EAST 21,566 21,347 485 705 -220 -1.02 100
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.3. Balance of cultivated land in East region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
Jiangsu 5,247 5,069 72 250 -178 -3.39 0
Zhejiang 2,425 2,356 32 101 -69 -2.84 1
Anhui 6,120 6,023 33 131 -98 -1.60 5
EAST 14,151 13,771 143 523 -379 -2.68 6
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.4. Balance of cultivated land in Central region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
% net change
Aban-doned
Jiangxi 3,074 3,056 27 44 -17 -0.56 0
Hubei 5,098 4,921 51 228 -177 -3.46 1
Hunan 3,869 3,779 50 140 -90 -2.33 1
CENTRAL 12,040 11,757 127 411 -284 -2.36 2
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.5. Balance of cultivated land in South region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
% net change
Aban-doned
Fujian 1,565 1,541 20 43 -24 -1.51 0
Guangdong 3,310 3,214 157 253 -96 -2.90 9
Guangxi 4,323 4,435 262 151 112 2.59 10
Hainan 760 757 19 23 -3 -0.43 5
SOUTH 9,958 9,947 458 469 -11 -0.11 24
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.6. Balance of cultivated land in Southwest region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
% net change
Aban-doned
Sichuan 9,335 9,184 76 227 -151 -1.62 2
Guizhou 4,993 4,960 39 72 -33 -0.66 1
Yunnan 6,454 6,533 383 304 79 1.23 21
SOUTH-WEST 20,782 20,677 498 603 -105 -0.51 25
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.7. Balance of cultivated land in Plateau region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
% net change
Aban-doned
Xijang 368 361 7 15 -7 -2.00 0
Qinghai 608 630 29 6 23 3.73 2
PLATEAU 976 991 36 21 15 1.57 2
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Table A2.8. Balance of cultivated land in Northwest region, 1988-1995 (in 1000 ha)
Cultivated land Period 1988-1995
Region Begin
1988
End
1995 Increase Decrease Net increase
% net change
Aban-doned
Nei Mongol 8,225 8,013 262 474 -212 -2.58 89
Shaanxi 5,699 5,337 142 504 -362 -6.36 8
Gansu 5,157 5,164 62 55 7 0.13 104
Ningxia 1,260 1,273 34 21 13 1.04 1
Xinjiang 3,770 3,927 380 223 157 4.16 34
NORTH-WEST 24,112 23,714 879 1,277 -398 -1.65 236
Source: State Land Administration, and calculations by the authors
Appendix 3:
Tables on increase of cultivated land during 1988-1995 at level of provinces and LUC economic regions
Source: State Land Administration, 1989 to 1996
Table A3.1 Increase of cultivated area in 1988 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 366 321 92 9 0 21 16
NORTHEAST 517 433 107 11 1 34 39
Shanghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inner Mongolia 287 194 17 7 0 14 73
Shaanxi 201 97 0 0 1 49 54
Gansu 77 65 2 1 0 8 3
Ningxia 52 37 4 0 0 5 10
Xinjiang 795 641 48 64 2 49 42
NORTHWEST 1,413 1,034 72 72 2 125 182
CHINA 3,720 2,733 216 144 27 306 537
Table A3.2 Increase of cultivated area in 1989 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 429 368 88 14 7 26 21
NORTHEAST 621 489 108 27 7 67 39
Shanghai 12 0 0 5 5 0 7
Inner Mongolia 404 340 98 9 0 15 39
Shaanxi 182 104 5 6 0 36 36
Gansu 91 82 30 0 0 5 3
Ningxia 46 36 5 0 0 2 8
Xinjiang 369 276 82 14 0 68 11
NORTHWEST 1,091 838 219 30 0 126 96
CHINA 3,883 2,795 370 125 16 403 560
Table A3.3 Increase of cultivated area in 1990 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 459 383 90 1 0 40 35
NORTHEAST 869 651 97 63 1 103 52
Shanghai 6 0 0 0 0 0 6
SOUTHWEST 736 533 11 5 0 54 144
Xijang 9 9 5 0 0 0 0
NORTHWEST 1,232 945 207 18 6 149 120
CHINA 4,462 3,176 371 178 17 507 601
Table A3.4 Increase of cultivated area in 1991 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 531 478 110 0 0 27 27
NORTHEAST 830 714 156 23 1 45 47
Shanghai 8 0 0 0 0 0 8
NORTHWEST 1,119 877 171 8 3 143 90
CHINA 4,251 3,160 372 152 26 409 531
Table A3.5 Increase of cultivated area in 1992 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 369 352 141 3 0 9 6
NORTHEAST 537 499 161 7 1 17 14
Shanghai 23 0 0 18 18 0 5
SOUTHWEST 676 467 26 21 1 60 128
Xijang 9 9 5 0 0 0 0
Qinghai 21 20 3 0 0 0 0
PLATEAU 30 30 8 0 0 0 0
Inner Mongolia 423 308 46 0 0 14 100
Shaanxi 199 94 1 18 16 48 39
Gansu 74 55 20 3 1 12 5
Ningxia 52 43 3 0 0 0 10
Xinjiang 575 506 165 2 1 52 16
NORTHWEST 1,323 1,005 235 22 18 126 169
CHINA 4,124 2,985 464 170 40 411 557
Table A3.6 Increase of cultivated area in 1993 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 309 201 11 0 0 98 10
NORTHEAST 435 316 28 3 0 103 13
Shanghai 4 0 0 0 0 0 4
NORTHWEST 826 693 243 14 3 81 38
CHINA 3,024 2,186 301 87 16 373 378
Table A3.7 Increase of cultivated area in 1994 (in hundred hectares).
Inner Mongolia 305 255 59 0 0 24 25
Shaanxi 148 51 1 11 9 49 36
Gansu 61 46 3 5 1 9 2
Ningxia 31 16 1 0 0 14 1
Xinjiang 337 269 162 1 0 18 49
NORTHWEST 882 638 226 18 11 114 113
CHINA 3,469 2,091 282 216 24 658 504
Table A3.8 Increase of cultivated area in 1995 (in hundred hectares).
Helongjiang 393 354 133 0 0 10 29
NORTHEAST 602 534 146 2 0 21 44
Shanghai 4 0 0 0 0 0 4
NORTHWEST 908 789 379 15 6 70 34
CHINA 3,889 2,858 568 139 22 425 467
Appendix 4:
Tables on decrease of cultivated land during 1988-1995 at level of provinces and LUC economic regions
Source: State Land Administration, 1989 to 1996
Table A 4.1 Decrease of cultivated area in 1988 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
CHINA 6,763 712 182 130 400 290 77 91 122 220 3,948 1,194 1,553 995 206 1,594 644
Table A 4.2 Decrease of cultivated area in 1989 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
Table A 4.3 Decrease of cultivated area in 1990 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
CHINA 3,464 454 92 121 241 252 21 159 73 121 2,077 536 933 547 61 560 258
Table A 4.4 Decrease of cultivated area in 1991 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
Table A 4.5 Decrease of cultivated area in 1992 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
CHINA 7,073 1,036 400 156 480 405 128 157 120 114 4,528 1,719 1,290 1,089 430 989 236
Table A 4.6 Decrease of cultivated area in 1993 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
Table A 4.7 Decrease of cultivated area in 1994 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture
CHINA 7,852 898 365 80 453 316 97 112 107 117 5,111 2,056 1,544 1,096 415 1,410 347
Table A 4.8 Decrease of cultivated area in 1995 (in hundred hectares).
Construction by state-owned units Construction by rural communities Conversion of agricultural structure
Provinces Total
housing Subtotal To horti-culture