6.3 Adjustment of model data to the observations (1960-2000)
6.3.6 Short summary
106 Chapter 6. Modelled climate of the Upper Moselle region
107
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Figure 6.31: CCLM data for acidity estimation (cluster CA2) on daily and predictor scale for the predictor periods. The red dots mark the original CCLM data and the blue ones the modified data.
108 Chapter 6. Modelled climate of the Upper Moselle region
7
Chapter 7Comparison of past and
future climate conditions in CCLM
For the analysis of the future climate projections 2001-2050 only the first two simu-lations under the scenarios A1B and B1 are available (Table 6.1); as a consequence the third realisation of the past period C20 (1960-2000) will not be compared to the future period. This chapter presents only the changes between original (i.e., without histogram matching calibration) CCLM data during the past period 1960-2000 and the future period 2001-2050. In this chapter, no observational data is taken into account. The analysis of original CCLM output focusses on annual means of key climate parameters and 16 predictors, estimating vine phenology and must quality for past and future periods. The calibration and transformation of predictors will be discussed in Chapter 8.
7.1 Expected climate change in the Upper Moselle region
The statistical evaluation of CCLM data for the scenarios is given in Table 7.1 and the trends are shown in Table 7.2. According to the consortial runs, the an-nual temperature in the Upper Moselle region increases by about 1 ℃ during the period 2001-2050 compared to 1960-2000 for all scenarios and runs. The tempera-ture range (difference between maximum and minimum) is only in Run 1 of A1B significantly augmented. The lower and upper extremes of temperature increase substantially depending on scenario and realisation. While the first quartile of the maximum temperature distribution remains almost constant, it is significantly higher for minimum and mean temperature. The third quartile of all temperatures and for both scenarios is significantly higher than C20.
109
110 Chapter 7. Comparison of past and future climate conditions in CCLM Table 7.1: Statistical evaluation of annual temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration of CCLM data for the periods 1960-2000 (C20) and 2001-2050 for the scenarios A1B and B1. Significant differences (95 % level) between C20 and A1B or B1 are labelled in red/blue for higher/lower values.
Tmax [℃] Tmin [℃] Tmean [℃] Prec [mm] SD [h]
Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2
mean value C20 13.48 13.47 5.69 5.60 9.14 9.10 932 945 1537 1540
A1B 14.47 14.34 6.49 6.58 10.05 10.01 955 988 1553 1489
B1 14.07 14.50 6.40 6.54 9.81 10.07 1010 955 1467 1542
standard C20 0.88 1.03 0.47 0.56 0.61 0.73 113 120 169 177
deviation A1B 1.22 1.07 0.73 0.71 0.92 0.81 119 126 208 193
B1 0.89 1.07 0.53 0.72 0.64 0.84 109 113 159 160
range C20 3.86 4.52 1.78 2.76 2.53 3.50 558 580 658 727
A1B 5.71 4.41 3.17 3.44 4.38 3.50 498 501 773 773
B1 3.89 5.73 2.07 4.22 2.42 4.88 535 444 694 641
minimum C20 11.77 11.62 4.71 4.37 7.95 7.65 635 664 1214 1160
A1B 11.88 12.08 5.26 4.60 8.20 8.02 739 726 1170 1107
B1 12.03 11.18 5.33 4.03 8.52 7.26 756 724 1162 1214
maximum C20 15.63 16.15 6.49 7.13 10.49 11.15 1193 1244 1872 1887
A1B 17.60 16.49 8.43 8.04 12.57 11.52 1237 1227 1943 1880
B1 15.92 16.91 7.40 8.25 10.94 12.15 1290 1167 1856 1855
1st quartile C20 12.75 12.63 5.37 5.23 8.75 8.64 854 877 1427 1426
A1B 13.78 13.60 5.95 6.13 9.36 9.47 879 908 1380 1332
B1 13.59 13.93 6.02 6.07 9.35 9.40 936 881 1326 1423
3rd quartile C20 14.05 14.11 5.98 5.93 9.53 9.57 1033 1006 1654 1656
A1B 15.21 15.00 6.86 7.10 10.60 10.55 1034 1086 1714 1647
B1 14.66 15.15 6.80 7.01 10.31 10.60 1067 1020 1568 1648
Abbr.: maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean) temperature, precipitation (Prec), and sunshine duration (SD)
Table 7.2: Evaluation of annual trends (per year) for temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration of CCLM data for different time slices. Trends with a significance level of 99 %/95 %/90 % are labelled in red/orange/yellow respectively.
Period Scenario
Tmax [℃] Tmin [℃] Tmean [℃] Prec [mm] SD [h]
Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2 Run1 Run2
1960 - 2050 A1B 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.28 0.68 0.70 -1.10
B1 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 1.45 0.13 1.2 0.00
2001 - 2050 A1B 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02 -0.07 1.45 0.90 -4.30
B1 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 1.70 1.36 -3.50 -2.40
2001 - 2030 A1B 0.03 -0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.02 -3.00 6.04 2.80 -12.40 B1 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 2.16 4.62 -5.50 -5.50 2011 - 2040 A1B 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 -1.86 3.27 -0.10 -3.40 B1 -0.02 0.02 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.02 -0.40 -0.94 -0.20 0.70 2021 - 2050 A1B 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 4.04 -2.20 -1.20 1.90 B1 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.10 -0.08 -4.00 -3.60 Abbr.: maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean) temperature, precipitation (Prec), and
sunshine duration (SD)
111
1960 1990 2020 2050 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Tmax [°C]
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Tmean [°C]
Run 1 Run 2
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19607 1990 2020 2050 8
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Figure 7.1: Temperature time series (1960-2050 and 2001-2050) of CCLM simula-tions for the scenarios A1B and B1, each including two runs. The thick lines are a moving average of 5 years. Trends for different time slices are listed in Table 7.2.
112 Chapter 7. Comparison of past and future climate conditions in CCLM
1960 1990 2020 2050 600
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Prec [mm]
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1960 1990 2020 2050 600
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Figure 7.2: Precipitation time series (1960-2050 and 2001-2050) of CCLM simula-tions for the scenarios A1B and B1, each including two runs. The thick lines are a moving average of 5 years. Trends for different time slices are listed in Table 7.2.
1960 1990 2020 2050 1100
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1300 1500 1700 1900
1960 1990 2020 2050 1100
1300 1500 1700 1900
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2000 2016 2032 2048 1100
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Figure 7.3: Sunshine duration time series (1960-2050 and 2001-2050) of CCLM simulations for the scenarios A1B and B1, each including two realisations. The thick lines are a moving average of 5 years. Trends for different time slices are listed in Table 7.2.
113 Precipitation and sunshine duration do not change substantially during the fu-ture period compared to the past. Only mean, maximum and first quartile values of precipitation in the B1 scenario clearly increase. Sunshine duration remains un-changed except for an extended range in the first realisation of the A1B scenario.
A similar, but less pronounced behaviour is observable in the evaluation of trends (Table 7.2). During the whole period 2001-2050 temperature shows significant up-ward trends. In the scenario B1, however, only minimum temperature is signifi-cantly increasing. During the first 30 years, i.e., 2001-2030, temperature remains nearly constant; even an decreasing trend is observed in Run 2 of A1B. During the period 2011-2040 temperature calculated for scenario A1B is increasing, where it remains unchanged for B1. In the last period 2021-2050 the trends become more important for A1B, but B1 shows no clear increasing trends. The corresponding time series are shown in Figure 7.1. The two runs differ, however: it seems they fluctuate with asynchrony phases. This is clearly visible in the maximum temper-ature time series and weaker for minimum tempertemper-ature. The differences become smaller approximately after 2010, thus this phenomenon is a characteristic mainly for the past period 1960-2000.
In accordance with Table 7.1 no significant trends in annual total precipitation are detected for the period 2001-2050 and for most sub-periods; during 2001-2030 Run 2 shows an increase of precipitation at a significance level of 90 %. Sunshine duration, however, has a decreasing trend for some future periods. Over the whole period it decreases at a significance level of 95 % for Run 2 in A1B and Run 1 in B1. A very high decrease is detected for Run 2 of A1B during the period 2001-2030.
Afterwards, sunshine duration does not change significantly in all realisations and scenarios. The time series of precipitation and sunshine duration for the period 1960-2050 are presented in Figure 7.2 and Figure 7.3, respectively.