2. Water and Sanitation
2.2 Scenarios for future water demand and wastewater generation
Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector
26
2.2 Scenarios for future water demand and
Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector
27
Figure 7 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Irbid Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: annual population increase of 2.1%; water demand of 80L/p/d; Syrian refugees will start to return by 2025; S1: All Syrian refugees remain; S2: All Syrian refugees leave; S3: 50% of the Syrian refugees leave, and S4: 25% of the Syrian refugees leave.
An annual population increase of 2.1%
till the year 2045 will result in a water demand calculated to be about
96 MCM/year in the Irbid Governorate, 30 MCM/year in the Mafraq
Governorate and a calculated wastewater generation of about 62 MCM/year in the Irbid Governorate and 19 MCM/year in the Mafraq Governorate if all Syrian refugees remain in the two Governorates (S1;
Table 3; Figure 7; Figure 8).
If all Syrian refugees were to leave by the year 2025 (S2) wastewater
generation will be massively reduced up to the year 2045 by about 33% in the Irbid Governorate and by about 66% in the Mafraq Governorate; the water demand will be reduced by about 33% in the Irbid Governorate and by
about 65% in the Mafraq Governorate (Table 4).
If fewer refugees return (50%), as calculated in scenario three (S3:
Table 5) there will still be a clear
relaxation of stress on the water sector.
The wastewater generation would still be reduced till the year 2045 by about 17% in the Irbid Governorate and by about 34% in the Mafraq Governorate;
similarly, the water demand will also be reduced by about 17% in the Irbid Governorate and by about 34% in the Mafraq Governorate (Table 5).
However, if an even smaller proportion (25%) return, as shown in scenario four (S4: Table 6), the effect on the
wastewater generation and overall water demand will only be minor.
Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector
28
Figure 8 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Mafraq Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: as for Figure 7.
For the Ajloun (Figure 9) and Jarash (Figure 10) Governorate the return of the Syrian refugees has only a
marginal influence on the water sector, since the overall share of Syrian refugees on the population is low with Ajloun at 8% and Jarash at 5%, see Table 1. However, even with this low share an effect can still be seen if all Syrian refugees leave by the year 2025 (S2). In that case, till the year 2045 wastewater generation will be reduced by about 20% in the Ajloun
Governorate and 8% in the Jarash
Governorate, and water demand will be reduced by about 14% in the Ajloun Governorate and about 8% in the Jarash Governorate compared to S1 where all Syrian refugees will remain in the Governorate (Table 4).
If only a small proportion return as shown in the two scenarios 3 and 4 (S3: Table 5; S4: Table 6) there will be no significant effect on wastewater generation and overall water demand.
Figure 9 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Ajloun Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: as for Figure 7.
Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector
29
Figure 10 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Jarash Governorate till 2045. Assumptions as for Figure 7.
As described above, the MWI has conducted various large and costly studies during recent years in order to secure the water supply and the wastewater treatment for the future in Jordan. It is understandable that the MWI focused predominantly on sub-urban and sub-urban areas of the Irbid Governorate, which were most affected by the influx of Syrian refugees.
However, although the Jordanian Government developed three phases of a Jordan Response Plan to the Syrian Crisis (MoPIC, 2015; 2017;
2019) little has been achieved so far.
No projects have been prioritized, the planned investments are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and rural areas were not considered.
A large proportion of Syrian refugees might be expected to remain in Jordan and therefore it can be assumed that the situation will develop approximately in accordance with scenarios S1 or S4
and that the pressure on the water sector will consequently continue to intensify.
The costs of the investments already planned are enormous. It’s already obvious that the intended investments will not meet the future demands and solutions need to be implemented now.
If the present water management practices were to continue without change, many aquifers will be lost forever. It is clear that the investment backlog and traditional decision paths of conservative planning must be left behind, and that regionally adapted concepts for the future need to be implemented.
Technological changes are urgently needed in order to mitigate the long-term problems within the water sector.
One solution could be an integrated wastewater and water management approach and the implementation of
Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector
30
semi- and decentralized wastewater treatment systems. This would both help to mitigate the extreme water scarcity and protect groundwater resources. Such approaches can be used with great flexibility and can be adapted to particular local conditions as either a temporary or permanent solution.
Within the framework of the planned investment projects of the MWI, the implementation of semi- and
decentralized systems, especially in
northern Jordan, seems to be target-oriented.
Due to their special location, individual villages in West-Irbid will not be
connected to a channel-bound network in the future; communities and districts in rural areas like Bani Kenaneh will not be given priority in infrastructure planning in the future due to high costs and therefore alternative concepts are necessary and need to be
implemented immediately.
Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector
31