Scale and resolution

Potential world food production is estimated on the basis of 222 soil regions, varying in size from 2.5 to 400 million ha. These are aggregated for presentation purposes into 6

The evaluation has no time dimension since relations are presumed to be static.

MOIRA is made up of 106 geographical units. Most are individual countries, how- ever some have been aggregated as groups. There are 103 market economies and 3 cen- trally planned economies. Results are frequently presented in 7 regions but their composi- tion is not specified. The regions are:

Developed countries: mining the availability of agricultural land and applying a theoretical maximum rate of photosynthesis. The photosynthetic rate depends on climatic conditions.

Economic model: MOIRA is a mathematical model using both recursive and simul- taneous equations. Countries which each have two sectors (agriculture and non- agriculture) are linked by an equilibrium model of international trade in food.

Production in t e r m of consumable protein is modeled for the agricultural sector as a whole, while consumption is differentiated by income class and sector.

Both production and consumption are functionally dependent on the domestic price of food which is influenced by government intervention in domestic markets. Effective demand per income class and sector a t given prices is compared to a nutrition norm t o judge the extent and distribution of hunger in each country.

3. sectoral income distribution 4. fish catch and distribution

5. technological parameters in agriculture.

Other structural parameters:

1. between country income distribution 2. consumption patterns by income class

Weather induced variations in yields are exogenously imposed, assuming a constant weather pattern. The disturbance factor is region-specific, with a 7 year cycle replicating observed fluctuations in the period 19661972.

In specifying the structure of centrally planned economies, MOIRA presumes produc- tion targets are set t o reflect consumption needs of the desired income level. As long as

the implied agricultural growth rate does not exceed 4%, the only shortfalls are due t o weather variation. Therefore centrally-planned economies are assumed t o be self-sufficient as a group.

MOIRA is driven by 3 exogenous variables: country-specific population growth and non-agricultural GDP growth, summarized in Table 2.3 and regional fertilizer prices.

Growth of non-agricultural GDP is the most important exogenous variable: it determines non-agricultural income and hence directly influences food consumption, migration, and government price policy. This variable is derived from published country-specific overall GDP growth rates which were subjectively revised. The revision takes into account the country's wealth and size of the agricultural sector.

Table 2.3 Exogenous assumptions in MOIRA World

Population average annual growth %

2010 total (10e9)

Non-agric GDP average growth %

1975-85 5 .O

1985-95 4.8

1995-05 4.5

Rich countries Poor countries

Developed Developing C P E

market econ market econ

Source: Table 8.2 (p.245) and Table 8.5 (p.247), Linnemann et al., (1979)

Note: CPE = Centrally Planned Economies

2.3.1.4. Results

The food potential model estimates a physical limit of production equivalent to 30 times the 1965 volume. While noting that the "ecological implications of such a massive expansion of agricultural production remain rather uncertain", the authors conclude "at least in the coming decades- world food supply need not be endangered by upper limits set by mother nature" (Linneman et al., 1979:8).

Nevertheless MOIRA shows that continuation of present trends will increase world hunger threefold between 1975 and 2010 despite a threefold increase in world production.

Tropical Africa and Southern Asia remain the major food-deficit regions. Trends are toward decreased self-sufficiency among the developing nations and increased importance of North America as an exporter of basic foods.

MOIRA simulates two types of policy measures t o reduce world hunger and malnu- trition:

(1) redistribution of available food,

(2) stimulation of food production in the developing countries.

Results of the policy simulation runs are summarized below:

Type Policy Outcome

2 Stabilization of inter-national Stimulates production in poor

food prices countries, reduces world

hunger but increases food deficit in urban areas.

2.3.2. Evaluation

2.3.2.1. Sensitivity analysis

A series of sensitivity runs were made with MOIRA. Each of them was based on the assumption of a 50% reduction in a specific exogenous variable or parameter. Reduction of the non-agricultural economic growth rate causes much lower market prices in the agri- cultural sector and increases world hunger by 35%. Reduction of the population growth rate results in a decrease of world hunger by 30%. Gradual reduction of income inequality outside agriculture reduces hunger by 50%. However, the impact of reduced inequality in the agricultural sector cannot be examined in this model.

The authors conclude that "all simulation runs with alternative assumptions regard- ing exogenous variables have one thing in common: if policies remain unchanged, the number of people who cannot obtain sufficient food will increase" (Linneman et al., 1979:303).

No sensitivity analysis was carried out for the food production model.

2.3.2.2. Structural analysis

The distributional features in MOIRA are static: they remain fixed at the 1965 pro- portions. This precludes any change in relative income distribution which could be inter- preted as social development. MOIRA is very sensitive to the fixed disparity ratio because it is the target of government policy and plays a significant role in determining domestic prices and consequent production incentives.

Sectoral income disparity is the outcome of market and political forces in which the political forces are considered to be predominant. Recognition of this is realistic and MOIRA's use of the disparity ratio to capture the role of government policy in the agri- culture sector is elegant. Each country is constrained to achieving its 1965 disparity ratios by interfering with domestic price levels within a country-specific budget constraint. How- ever maintaining a fixed disparity ratio implies:

(a) the 1965 level was politically optimal; and, (b) no change occurs in the relative power of the

agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the society.

The authors include their own evaluation of MOIRA's limitations and weaknesses as a model. Points of relevance to development-environment studies include:

1. Neglect of interactions between: (a) environment and agricultural development, (b) economic development and income distribution (which may influence agricul- tural development strategies) and (c) demographic development and the food situation.

2. Lack of differentiation of agricultural products.

3. Weak empirical basis and artificial modeling dynamics (the centrally planned economies were presumed to be self sufficient and were excluded from the world food system).