\ Salzburg - Controls

US 1981 Standards

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1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

FIGURE 28 Hydrocarbon emissions in two Austrian cities, assurning alternative levels of ernission controls.

revealed that large urban areas without effective transportation systems and rural areas are the most energy intensive for transportation. In the case of urban containment, most of the increment in population during the time frame of the case studies was added to large cities, and this also contributed to the relatively high levels of energy demand. A more favorable effect on energy demand was associated with small compact city devel- opment.

Model runs showed a very slow rate of response of the energy system to changes in settlement patterns. This reflects the gradual rate at which most communities in developed countries change demographic character. The steep decline in energy use beginning in the late 1970s and continuing until the mid-1980s is due primarily to the impact of the US fuel economy standards, rather than to demographic changes.

3.4.5 ConcIuding Observations

The Personal Transportation Model was initially developed to assess the implications of selected policy alternatives for energy use and emissions. The policies that can be

Wisconsin - IIASA Set o f E n e r g y l h vironment Models

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1970 1980 1990 2000

Year 220-

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z

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FIGURE 29 Personal transportation energy dernand for Wisconsin under varying assu~nptions about population settlement patterns.

Exurban

examined with the model relate t o settlement patterns, transportation technologies, travel behavior, and fuel price and income trends. Analysis has shown that policy measures directed a t transportation technologies have rapid and large effects o n energy use and emis- sions (Hanson 1980). Policy measures affecting land-use patterns and travel behavior are more difficult t o implement and produce a slower and considerably smaller response, in terms o f energy conservation o r enlission reductions. This does not diminish their impor- tance, however, especially for the long run. As for pricing policies, the growth of per capita income has supported the growth of transportation, and very large fuel price increases would be needed t o significantly reduce the use of fuel.

The model has proven t o be a straightforward and useful tool for analysis of selected transportation policies at the regional level. It should be noted, however, that there are

7 2 PJ. K. h e l l et al.

many questions that the model does not address; for instance, the model cannot assess the effectiveness of policies encouraging mass transit rather than automobile use for work trips ^-- it can only calculate the changes in energy use and emissions that would result if the shift actually occurs. The model is also not appropriate for assessing the implications of settlement patterns at the individual neighborhood or community level. A more spatially- detailed model would be required for such a microlevel analysis.

3.4.6 Purpose of the Freight Transportation Model

In the case studies freight transportation has typically accounted for one-third t o one-half of total energy use for transportation purposes. Because of the significant energy requirements of the freight sector, it is useful to have a model t o assess the general trends of energy demand in the sector and t o evaluate the potential for conservation.

The model used in the case studies provides a means of assessing the effects on energy use associated with policy actions that change modal distribution and energy effi- ciency. The methodological approach focuses on the amount of freight transportation activity, measured in net ton-kilometers, and the energy intensity per unit of activity, measured in kcal per ton-kilometer.

The potential for conservation in this sector is found in three areas: first, energy requirements for a given amount of goods moved by a given mode could be reduced; sec- ond, shifts from more energy-intensive modes, suchas truck, t o less energy-intensive modes, such as rail or ship, could occur; and third, the amount and/or distance that goods have t o be moved could be decreased. The model provides a structure for assessing conservation measures in the first two areas, given projections of freight movement in ton-kdometers.

3.4.7 Model Description

The structure of the Freight Transportation Model is shown schematically in Figure 30. The conceptual approach used in the construction of the model is closely related to the approaches underlying the industrial and service sector models; each of the models is structured around the amount of sectoral activity and the energy required per unit of activity.

The model's starting point is the determination of activity (in terms of net ton- kilometers) of all goods transported in a given region. In various case studies the sophis- tication of this determination has varied greatly. Simple linear relationships relating growth of ton-kilometers to the growth of industrial or all economic output were used in RhGne-Alpes and Wisconsin. That is, a direct estimate of ton-kilometers was made on the basis of economic output measured in terms of value added. In the case of the GDR, optimization models were used t o determine freight requirements in ton-kilometers by mode. These requirements were forecasted as a part of the GDR's overall 5-year econonuc plan.

In the Austrian case, the AUSTRIA I1 Input-Output Model (see Section 2.3) included a transportation/communications sector; energy use in this sector was domi- nated by the transportation component. The output of the AUSTRIA 11 Model provided