7KHJHQHUDODLPRIWKHSUHVHQWZRUNLVFRQWULEXWLQJWRH[SODLQKRZ*6%VFDQXVHHOHPHQWDO VXOIXUDVHOHFWURQGRQRU
2QO\ UHFHQWO\ ZDV LW GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH PRGHUDWH WKHUPRSKLOH&OD WHSLGXP QHHGV WKH F\WRSODVPLF GLVVLPLODWRU\VXOIXUUHGXFWDVH 'VU V\VWHP WR R[LGL]H WKH VXOIXU SURGXFHG IURP WKLRVXOIDWH R[LGDWLRQ +RONHQEULQN HW DO +RZHYHU LW KDV QRW EHHQ FODULILHG \HW KRZ H[WUDFHOOXODUVXOIXULVWUDQVSRUWHGLQWRWKHF\WRSODVPRULIWKHF\WRSODVPLF'VUV\VWHPLVWKHRQO\
V\VWHP IRU VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ 7KH VLWXDWLRQ LQ&OD WHSLGXPPLJKW DQ\ZD\ EH GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH VLWXDWLRQLQPHVRSKLOLFVWUDLQVRI*6%VDW&ZKLFKLVWKHWHPSHUDWXUHRIWKHKDELWDWIURP ZKLFK&OD WHSLGXP ZDV LVRODWHG :DKOXQG HW DO VXOIXU LV PRUH VROXEOH WKDQ DW &
.DP\VKQ\ WKH WHPSHUDWXUH DW ZKLFK PHVRSKLOHV DUH JHQHUDOO\ FXOWLYDWHG&OD WHSLGXP PLJKWWKXVKDYHDFFHVVWRVROLGVXOIXUZLWKRXWWKHQHHGRIDQ\PRELOL]DWLRQV\VWHP
*6%VDUHSK\ORJHQHWLFDOO\FORVHO\UHODWHGDQGKDYHTXLWHDVLPSOHPHWDEROLVP±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
*6%V
6WXGLHV RQ F\WRFKURPHV OLNH WKRVH RI $]DL HW DO RU 7VXNDWDQL HW DO KDYH VKRZQWKDWLWLVRIWHQGLIILFXOWWRVKXWFRPSOHWHO\GRZQDSDUWRIWKHVXOIXUPHWDEROLVPLQD*6%
SDUWO\ EHFDXVH RI WKH FRPSOH[ UHGR[ FKHPLVWU\ RI VXOIXU FRPSRXQGV ZKLFK FDQ EH VXEMHFWHG WR VHYHUDO FKHPLFDO UHDFWLRQV =RSIL HW DO SDUWO\ EHFDXVH WKH HQ]\PHV LQYROYHG LQ HOHFWURQ WUDQVIHUIURPVXOIXUFRPSRXQGVWRF\WRFKURPHVPLJKWDFFHSWPRUHWKDQRQHHOHFWURQGRQRU
$WWKHOLJKWRIWKHVHGLIILFXOWLHVLWZDVFRQVLGHUHGSDUWLFXODUO\YDOXDEOHWRNHHSVLPSOHWKH V\VWHPVWXGLHG7KHPRGHOVWUDLQDQGWKHJURZLQJFRQGLWLRQVUHIOHFWHGVXFKDVHDUFKRIVLPSOLFLW\
7KHVWUDLQFKRVHQDVDPRGHO&ODSDUYXP'601&,%KDVEHHQNQRZQIRUORQJ 6HYHUDOZRUNV±DPRQJWKHP6WHLQPHW]DQG)LVFKHUDQG)XKUPDQQHWDO
%RUNHQVWHLQ±GRFXPHQWHGGLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIWKHVWUDLQV¶VSK\VLRORJ\DQGELRFKHPLVW\
ͲϯϯͲ
HJ JURZWK UHTXLUHPHQWV LQWHUPHGLDWHV LQ VXOILGH VXOIXU DQG WKLRVXOIDWH R[LGDWLRQ F\WRFKURPHVSURGXFWLRQRIVXUIDFWDQWV
&ODSUDYXP'601&,%LVDPHVRSKLOHZKLFKLVEHOLHYHGWRUHYHDOPRUHLQVLJKWV DERXW VXOIXU PRELOL]DWLRQ WKDQ D WHUPRSKLOH ± VXOIXU VROXELOLW\ LQFUHDVHV ZLWK WHPSHUDWXUH .DP\VKQ\
7KH FKRVHQ JURZLQJ VWUDLQ FDQ R[LGL]H WKLRVXOIDWH DQG SURGXFHV VXOIXU ERWK IURP VXOILGH R[LGDWLRQDQGIURPWKLRVXOIDWHR[LGDWLYHGLVSURSRUWLRQDWLRQ
7KHJHQRPHRI&ODSUDYXP'601&,%ZDVVHTXHQFHGDQGSXEOLVKHGE\WKH-RLQW
*HQRPH ,QVWLWXWH /XFDV HW DO 7KH DYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH JHQRPH VHTXHQFH DOORZHG FRPSDULVRQV ZLWK WKH JHQH FRQWHQW RI RWKHU *6%V DQG IDFLOLWDWHG WKH SURWHRPLF VWXG\ ± WKH JHQRPHVHTXHQFLQJSHUPLWVWRFKRRVHDQHDVLHUDSSURDFKIRUSHSWLGHVSRWVLGHQWLILFDWLRQDIWHU GLIIHUHQWLDOGLPHQVLRQDOJHOHOHFWURSKRUHVLV
&XOWLYDWLRQ RI &OD SUDY XP '60 1&,% ZDV FDUULHG RQ XQGHU FRQWLQXRXV OLJKW RIIHULQJ&2DVWKHVROHFDUERQVRXUFHGHVSLWH *6%VEHLQJDEOHWRDVVLPLODWHVPDOORUJDQLF PROHFXOHV
&OD SDUYXP '60 ZDV VWXGLHG XVLQJ SK\VLRORJLFDO &KDSWHUV DQG DQG PROHFXODU PHWKRGV&KDSWHU
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
ͲϯϰͲ
&KDSWHU FRQWDLQV SUHOLPLQDU\ UHVXOWV RQ VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ E\&OD SDUYXP'60 1&,%
LQYHVWLJDWHGE\SK\VLRORJLFDOPHWKRGV
ͲϯϱͲ
%LEOLRJUDSK\RI&KDSWHU
$OH[DQGHU%$QGHUVHQ-&R[5 ,PKRII-3K\ORJHQ\RIJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULDRQWKHEDVLV RIJHQHVHTXHQFHVRI6U51$DQGRIWKH)HQQD0DWWKHZV2OVRQSURWHLQ$UFK0LFURELRO
$OH[DQGHU% ,PKRII-)&RPPXQLWLHVRIJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULDLQPDULQHDQGVDOLQHKDELWDWV DQDO\]HGE\JHQHVHTXHQFHVRI6U51$DQG)HQQD0DWWKHZV2OVRQSURWHLQ,QW0LFURELRO
$PHQG -3 5RJHUV ./ 0H\HU'RPEDUG '5 0LFURELDOO\ PHGLDWHG VXOIXUUHGR[
HQHUJHWLFV LQ PDULQH K\GURWKHUPDO YHQW V\VWHPV6XOIXU ELRJHRFKHPLVWU\6SHFLDO 3DSHU
$QLO .XPDU 3 6ULQLYDV 715 6DVLNDOD & 5DPDQD &9 6OLQJ - ,PKRII -) 6HOHFWLYH HQULFKPHQW RI JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULD LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI DPLQREHQ]HQHVXOIRQDWH VXOIDQLODWH:RUOG-0LFURELRO%LRWHFKQRO
$QLO .XPDU 3 6ULQLYDV 7156DVLNDOD &5DPDQD &9 6OLQJ - ,PKRII - 3URVWKHFRFKORULVLQGLFDVSQRYDQRYHOJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULXPIURPDPDULQHDTXDFXOWXUH SRQG.DNLQDGD,QGLD-*HQ$SSO0LFURELRO
$]DL & 7VXNDWDQL < +DUDGD - 2KRND + 6XOIXU R[LGDWLRQ LQ PXWDQWV RI WKH SKRWRV\QWKHWLFJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULXP&KORURELXPWHSLGXPGHYRLGRIF\WRFKURPHFDQG 6R[%3KRWRV\QWK5HV
%DUGLVFKHZVNL ) )LVFKHU - +|OOHU % )ULHGULFK &* 6R[9 WUDQVIHUV HOHFWURQV WR WKH SHULSODVP RI3DUDFRFFXV SDQWRWURSKXV± DQ HVVHQWLDO UHDFWLRQ IRU FKHPRWURSKLF VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ0LFURELRORJ\
%DUNHU+$DQG+XQJDWH5(&RUQHOLXV%HUQDUGXVYDQ1LHO1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI 6FLHQFHV:DKLQJWRQ'&
ͲϯϲͲ
%HDWW\ -7 2YHUPDQQ - /LQFH 07 0DQVNH $. /DQJ $6 %ODQNHQVKLS 5( 9DQ 'RYHU &/
0DUWLQVRQ7$ 3OXPOH\)*$QREOLJDWHO\SKRWRV\QWKHWLFEDFWHULDODQDHUREHIURPD GHHSVHDK\GURWKHUPDOYHQW3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$
%RUNHQVWHLQ&8QWHUVXFKXQJHQ]XU%LRYHUIJEDUNHLWYRQ(OHPHQWDUVFKZHIHOXQGELRJHQHP 6FKZHIHO XQG ]XU ELRWHFKQRORJLVFKHQ 6XOILGHQWIHUQXQJ GXUFK *UQH XQG 3XUSXUVFKZHIHOEDNWHULHQ3K'WKHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI%UHPHQ
%RUUHJR& *DUFtD*LO-3KRWRV\QWKHWLFR[LGDWLRQRI0Q6DQG)H6E\&KORURELXPVSS 0LFURELRORJLD
%URFNV -- /RYH *' 6XPPRQV 5( .QROO $+ /RJDQ *$ %RZGHQ 6$ %LRPDUNHU HYLGHQFHIRUJUHHQDQGSXUSOHVXOSKXUEDFWHULDLQDVWUDWLILHG3DODHRSURWHUR]RLFVHD1DWXUH
%UXQH'&6XOIXUR[LGDWLRQE\SKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULD%LRFKLP%LRSK\V$FWD
%UXQH'&6XOIXUFRPSRXQGVDVSKRWRV\QWKHWLFHOHFWURQGRQRUV$QR[\JHQLFSKRWRV\QWKHWLF EDFWHULD %ODQNHQVKLS 5( 0DGLJDQ 07 %DXHU &( HGV $GYDQFHV LQ 3KRWRV\QWKHVLV 9ROSS .OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV'RUGUHFKW7KH1HWKHUODQGV
%WWQHU0;LH'/1HOVRQ+3LQWKHU:+DXVND* 1HOVRQ13KRWRV\QWKHWLFUHDFWLRQ FHQWHUJHQHVLQJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULDDQGLQSKRWRV\VWHPDUHUHODWHG3URF1DWO$FDG6FL8 6$
&DKLOO $' 6WRO] -) 3RO\FORQDO DQWLERGLHV WR FKORURVRPH SURWHLQV DV SUREHV IRU JUHHQ VXOIXUEDFWHULD$SSO(QYLURQ0LFURELRO
&DULXV < 5RWKHU ' )ULHGULFK &* 6FKHLGLJ $- 7KH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH SHULSODVPLF WKLRO GLVXOILGH R[LGRUHGXFWDVH 6R[6 IURP 3DUDFRFFXV SDQWRWURSKXV LQGLFDWHV D WULSOH 7U[*U['VE& IXQFWLRQDOLW\ LQ FKHPRWURSKLF VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ$FWD &U\VWDOORJU ' %LRO
&U\VWDOORJU±
&KDQ/.0RUJDQ.LVV50 +DQVRQ7()XQFWLRQDO$QDO\VLVRI7KUHH6XOILGH4XLQRQH 2[LGRUHGXFWDVH+RPRORJVLQ&KORUREDFXOXPWHSLGXP-%DFWHULRO
ͲϯϳͲ
&KDQ /. :HEHU 76 0RUJDQ.LVV 50 +DQVRQ 7( *HQHWLF DQG SURWHRPLF VWXGLHV RI VXOIXUR[LGDWLRQLQ&KORURELXPWHSLGXPV\Q&KORUREDFXOXPWHSLGXP6XOIXUPHWDEROLVP LQ SKRWRWURSKLF RUJDQLVPV +HOO 5 'DKO & .QDII '% /HXVWHN 7 HGV SS 6SULQJHU7KH1HWKHUODQGV
&ROH -5 &KDL % )DUULV 5- :DQJ 4 .XODP6\HG0RKLGHHQ $6 0F*DUUHOO '0 %DQGHOD $0
&DUGHQDV ( *DUULW\ *0 7LHGMH -0 7KH ULERVRPDO GDWDEDVH SURMHFW 5'3,, LQWURGXFLQJP\5'3VSDFH DQG TXDOLW\ FRQWUROOHG SXEOLF GDWD1XFOHLF$FLGV5HV ' '
&ROH-5:DQJ4&DUGHQDV()LVK(&KDL%)DUULV%-.XODP6\HG0RKLGHHQ$60F*DUUHOO '00DUVK7*DUULW\*0 7LHGMH-07KH5LERVRPDO'DWDEDVH3URMHFWLPSURYHG DOLJQPHQWVDQGQHZWRROVIRUU51$DQDO\VLV1XFOHLF$FLGV5HV''
&RUN ' 0DWKHUV - 0DND $ 6UQDN $ &RQWURO RI 2[LGDWLYH 6XOIXU 0HWDEROLVP RI
&KORURELXPOLPLFRODIRUPDWKLRVXOIDWRSKLOXP$SSO(QYLURQ0LFURELRO
(LVHQ-$1HOVRQ.(3DXOVHQ,7+HLGHOEHUJ-):X0'RGVRQ5-'HER\5*ZLQQ0/1HOVRQ :&+DIW'++LFNH\(.3HWHUVRQ-''XUNLQ$6.RORQD\-/<DQJ)+ROW,8PD\DP /$0DVRQ7%UHQQHU06KHD733DUNVH\'1LHUPDQ:&)HOGEO\XP79+DQVHQ&/
&UDYHQ 0% 5DGXQH ' 9DPDWKHYDQ - .KRXUL + :KLWH 2 *UXEHU 70 .HWFKXP .$
9HQWHU-&7HWWHOLQ+%U\DQW'$ )UDVHU&07KHFRPSOHWHJHQRPHVHTXHQFHRI
&KORURELXPWHSLGXP7/6DSKRWRV\QWKHWLFDQDHURELFJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULXP3URF 1DWO$FDG6FL86$
)LVFKHU8&\WRFKURPHVDQGLURQVXOIXUSURWHLQVLQVXOIXUPHWDEROLVPRISKRWRWURSKLFVXOIXU EDFWHULD6XOIXU,WV6LJQLILFDQFHIRU&KHPLVWU\IRUWKH*HR%LRDQG&RVPRVSKHUHDQG 7HFKQRORJ\0OOHU$ .UHEV%HGVSS(OVHYLHU$PVWHUGDP
)ULHGULFK &* 4XHQWPHLHU $ %DUGLVFKHZVN\ ) 5RWKHU ' 2UDZVNL * +HOOZLJ 3 )LVFKHU 5HGR[ FRQWURO RI WKH FKHPRWURSKLF VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ RI3DUDFRFFXV SDQWRWURSKXV 0LFURELDO 6XOIXU 0HWDEROLVP 'DKO & )ULHGULFK &* HGV SS 6SULQJHU 7KH 1HWKHUODQGV
ͲϯϴͲ
)ULJDDUG18 %U\DQW'$6HHLQJJUHHQEDFWHULDLQDQHZOLJKWJHQRPLFVHQDEOHGVWXGLHV RI WKH SKRWRV\QWKHWLF DSSDUDWXV LQ JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULD DQG ILODPHQWRXV DQR[\JHQLF SKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULD$UFK0LFURELRO
)ULJDDUG 18 %U\DQW '$ &KORURVRPHV DQWHQQD RUJDQHOOHV LQ SKRWRV\QWKHWLF *UHHQ
%DFWHULD &RPSOH[ ,QWUDFHOOXODU 6WUXFWXUHV LQ 3URNDU\RWHV 6KLYHO\ -0 HG SS 6SULQJHU7KH1HWKHUODQGV
)ULJDDUG18 %U\DQW'D*HQRPLFDQGHYROXWLRQDU\SHUVSHFWLYHVRQVXOIXUPHWDEROLVPLQ JUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD0LFURELDO6XOIXU0HWDEROLVP'DKO& )ULHGULFK&*HGVSS±
6SULQJHU7KH1HWKHUODQGV
)ULJDDUG18 %U\DQW'$E*HQRPLFLQVLJKWVLQWRWKHVXOIXUPHWDEROLVPRISKRWRWURSKLF JUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD6XOIXU0HWDEROLVPLQ3KRWRWURSKLF2UJDQLVPV+HOO5'DKO&.QDII '% /HXVWHN7HGVSS±6SULQJHU7KH1HWKHUODQGV
)ULJDDUG18&KHZ$*0/L+0DUHVFD-$ %U\DQW'$&KORURELXPWHSLGXPLQVLJKWV LQWRWKHVWUXFWXUHSK\VLRORJ\DQGPHWDEROLVPRIDJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULXPGHULYHGIURPWKH FRPSOHWHJHQRPHVHTXHQFH3KRWRV\QWK5HV±
)ULJDDUG1 'DKO&6XOIXUPHWDEROLVPLQSKRWRWURSKLFVXOIXUEDFWHULD$GY0LFURE3K\VLRO
)ULJDDUG18/L+0DUWLQVVRQ3'DV6.)UDQN+$$DUWVPD7- %U\DQW'$,VRODWLRQ DQG FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI FDURWHQRVRPHV IURP D EDFWHULRFKORURSK\OO FOHVV PXWDQW RI
&KORURELXPWHSLGXP3KRWRV\QWK5HV±
)ULJDDUG18/L+0LONV.-%U\DQW'$1LQHPXWDQWVRI&KORURELXPWHSLGXPHDFKXQDEOH WR V\QWKHVL]H D GLIIHUHQW FKORURVRPDO SURWHLQ VWLOO DVVHPEOH IXQFWLRQDO FKORURVRPHV
-%DFWHULRO
)ULJDDUG 18 0DWVXXUD . 2[\JHQ XQFRXSOHV OLJKW DEVRUSWLRQ E\ WKH FKORURVRPH DQWHQQD DQG SKRWRV\QWKHWLF HOHFWURQ WUDQVIHU LQ WKH JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULXP&KORURELXP WHSLGXP
%LRFKLP%LRSK\V$FWD
ͲϯϵͲ
)XKUPDQQ62YHUPDQQ-3IHQQLJ1)LVFKHU8,QIOXHQFHRIYLWDPLQ%DQGOLJKWRQWKH IRUPDWLRQRIFKORURVRPHVLQJUHHQDQGEURZQFRORUHG&KORURELXPVSHFLHV$UFK0LFURELRO
*DUFLD*LO- $EHOOD&$*URZWKSDUDPHWHUVLQJUHHQSKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULDSXUHFXOWXUHVD VWXG\RQ³LQYLYR´DEVRUSWLRQYDOXHV6FLHQWLDJHUXQGHQVLV
*DUFLD*LO- %RUUHJR&6RUSWLRQRIPHWDOVE\&KORURELXPVSS0LFURELRORJLD
*HRUJH *1 *QLGD 0 %D]\OLQVNL '$ 3ULQFH 5& 3LFNHULQJ ,- ;5D\ $EVRUSWLRQ 6SHFWURVFRS\ DV D SUREH RI PLFURELDO VXOIXU ELRFKHPLVWU\ WKH QDWXUH RI EDFWHULDO VXOIXU JOREXOHVUHYLVLWHG-%DFWHULRO
*ODHVHU - %DQHUDV / 5WWHUV + 2YHUPDQQ - 1RYHO EDFWHULRFKORURSK\OOH VWUXFWXUHV DQG VSHFLHVVSHFLILFYDULDELOLW\RISLJPHQWFRPSRVLWLRQLQJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD$UFK0LFURELRO
*ULHVEHFN & 6FKW] 0 6FK|GO 7 %DWKH 6 1DXVFK / 0HGHUHU 1 9LHOUHLFKHU 0 +DXVND * 0HFKDQLVPRIVXOILGHTXLQRQHUHGXFWDVHLQYHVWLJDWHGXVLQJVLWHGLUHFWHGPXWDJHQHVLV DQGVXOIXUDQDO\VLV%LRFKHPLVWU\
*UXEHU70(LVHQ-$*LVK. %U\DQW'$7KHSK\ORJHQHWLFUHODWLRQVKLSVRI&KORURELXP WHSLGXPDQG&KORURIOH[XVDXUDQWLDFXVEDVHGXSRQWKHLU5HF$VHTXHQFHV)(060LFURELRO /HWW±
+DOP + 0XVDW 1 /DP 3 /DQJORLV 5 0XVDW ) 3HGX]]L 6 /DYLN * 6FKXEHUW &- 6LQKD % /D5RFKH-.X\SHUV000&RRFFXUUHQFHRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQDQGQLWURJHQIL[DWLRQLQ DPHURPLFWLFODNH/DNH&DGDJQR6ZLW]HUODQG(QYLURQ0LFURELRO
+DQVRQ7(0RUJDQ.LVV50&KDQ/. +LUDV-%H\RQGWKHJHQRPHIXQFWLRQDOVWXGLHV RISKRWRWURSKLFVXOIXUR[LGDWLRQ5HFHQW$GYDQFHVLQ3KRWRWURSKLF3URNDU\RWHV+DOOHQEHFN 3&HGSS6SULQJHU1HZ<RUN
ͲϰϬͲ
+DQVRQ7(7DELWD)5,QVLJKWVLQWRWKHVWUHVVUHVSRQVHDQGVXOIXUPHWDEROLVPUHYHDOHGE\
SURWHRPH DQDO\VLV RI D&KORURELXP WHSLGXP PXWDQW ODFNLQJ WKH 5XELVFROLNH SURWHLQ 3KRWRV\QWK5HV
+DUDGD-6DJD<2KRND+ 7DPLDNL+ 'LIIHUHQWVHQVLWLYLWLHVWRR[\JHQEHWZHHQWZR VWUDLQV RI WKH SKRWRV\QWKHWLF JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULXP&KORURELXP YLEULRIRUPH 1&,%
ZLWKEDFWHULRFKORURSK\OOFDQGG3KRWRV\QWK5HV±
+HGD*' 0DGLJDQ07$VSHFWVRIQLWURJHQIL[DWLRQLQ&KORURELXP$UFK0LFURELRO
±
+LOOLHU: %DEFRFN*73KRWRV\QWKHWLFUHDFWLRQFHQWUHV3ODQW3K\VLRO
+RKPDQQ0DUULRWW0) %ODQNHQVKLS5(+\SRWKHVLVRQFKORURVRPHELRJHQHVLVLQJUHHQ SKRWRV\QWKHWLFEDFWHULD)(%6/HWW±
+RONHQEULQN & 2FyQ %DUEDV 6 0HOOHUXS $ 2WDNL + )ULJDDUG 18 6XOIXU JOREXOH R[LGDWLRQLQJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULDLVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHGLVVLPLODWRU\VXOILWHUHGXFWDVHV\VWHP 0LFURELRORJ\'2,PLF
,PKRII-)3K\ORJHQHWLFWD[RQRP\RIWKHIDPLO\&KORURELDFHDHRQWKHEDVLVRI6U51$
DQGIPR)HQQD0DWWKHZV2OVRQSURWHLQJHQHVHTXHQFHV,QW-6\VW(YRO0LFURELRO
,PKRII -) 6\VWHPDWLFV RI DQR[\JHQLF SKRWRWURSKLF EDFWHULD 6XOIXU 0HWDEROLVP LQ 3KRWRWURSKLF2UJDQLVPV5GLJHU+HWDOHGVSS±6SULQJHU1HZ<RUN
,PKRII-) 7KLHO93K\ORJHQ\DQGWD[RQRP\RI&KORURELDFHDH3KRWRV\QWK5HV
,UJHQV5/7KLRDFHWDPLGHDVDVRXUFHRIK\GURJHQVXOILGHIRUFRORQ\JURZWKRISXUSOHVXOIXU EDFWHULD&XUU0LFURELRO±
-HQVHQ07.QXGVHQ- 2OVRQ-0$QRYHODPLQRJO\FRVSKLQJROLSLGIRXQGLQ&KORURELXP OLPLFRODIWKLRVXOIDWRSKLOXP$UFK0LFURELRO±
ͲϰϭͲ
-¡UJHQVHQ %% 1HOVRQ '& 6XOILGH R[LGDWLRQ LQ PDULQH VHGLPHQWV JHRFKHPLVWU\ PHHWV PLFURELRORJ\6XOIXUELRJHRFKHPLVWU\6SHFLDO3DSHU
.DP\VKQ\ -U $ 6ROXELOLW\ RI F\FORRFWDVXOIXU LQ SXUH ZDWHU DQG VHD ZDWHU DW GLIIHUHQW WHPSHUDWXUHV*HRFKLP&RVPRFKLP$FWD±
.HSSHQ 2, %HUJ ,$ /HEHGHYD 19 7DLVRYD $6 .ROJDQRYD 79 6ORERGRYD 19 %XO\JLQD (6 7RXURYD73 ,YDQRYVN\51&KORUREDFXOXPPDFHVWDHVSQRYDQHZJUHHQVXOIXU EDFWHULXP0LFURELRORJ\±
.KDQQD 6 1LFKRODV '-' 8WLOL]DWLRQ RI WHWUDWKLRQDWH DQG6ODEHOOHG WKLRVXOSKDWH E\
ZDVKHGFHOOVRI&KORURELXPYLEULRIRUPHIVSWKLRVXOIDWRSKLOXP0LFURELRORJ\
/DUVHQ + <RFXP &6 9DQ 1LHO &% 2Q WKH HQHUJHWLFV RI WKH SKRWRV\QWKHVHV LQ JUHHQ VXOIXUEDFWHULD-*HQ3K\VLRO
/XFDV6&RSHODQG$/DSLGXV$*ODYLQDGHO5LR7'DOLQ(7LFH+%UXFH'*RRGZLQ/3LWOXFN 66FKPXW]-/DULPHU)/DQG0+DXVHU/.\USLGHV10LNKDLORYD1=KDR)/L7/LX
= 2YHUPDQQ - %U\DQW '$ 5LFKDUGVRQ 3 86 '2( -RLQW *HQRPH ,QVWLWXWH :DOQXW&UHHN&$86
/XWKHU,,,*:)LQGOD\$-0DF'RQDOG'-2ZLQJV60+DQVRQ7(%HLQDUW5$ *LUJXLV35 7KHUPRG\QDPLFVDQGNLQHWLFVRIVXOILGHR[LGDWLRQE\R[\JHQDORRNDWLQRUJDQLFDOO\
FRQWUROOHGUHDFWLRQVDQGELRORJLFDOO\PHGLDWHGSURFHVVHVLQWKHHQYLURQPHQW)URQW0LFURELR
0DQVNH$.*ODHVHU-.X\SHUV000 2YHUPDQQ-3K\VLRORJ\DQGSK\ORJHQ\RIJUHHQ VXOIXUEDFWHULDIRUPLQJDPRQRVSHFLILFSKRWRWURSKLFDVVHPEODJHDWDGHSWKRIPHWHUVLQ WKH%ODFN6HD$SSO(QYLURQ0LFURELRO
0pQGH]ÈOYDUH] 6 5DPtUH]0RUHQR 6 *DMX 1 0ROHFXODU WD[RQRP\ RI WKH JHQXV
&KORURELXP&ULW5HY0LFURELRO
ͲϰϮͲ
0H\HU%,PKRII-) .XHYHU-0ROHFXODUDQDO\VLVRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGSK\ORJHQ\RIWKH VR[%JHQHDPRQJVXOIXUR[LGL]LQJEDFWHULD±HYROXWLRQRIWKH6R[VXOIXUR[LGDWLRQHQ]\PH V\VWHP(QYLURQ0LFURELRO
2JDZD 7 )XUXVDZD 7 6KLJD 0 6HR ' 6DNXUDL + ,QRXH . %LRFKHPLFDO VWXGLHV RI D VR[)HQFRGHG PRQRPHULF IODYRSURWHLQ SXULILHG IURP WKH JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULXP
&KORUREDFXOXPWHSLGXP WKDW VWLPXODWHV LQ YLWUR WKLRVXOIDWH R[LGDWLRQ%LRVFL %LRWHFKQRO
%LRFKHP
2KRND + %ODQNHQVKLS 5( *UHHQ EDFWHULD VHFRQGDU\ HOHFWURQ GRQRU F\WRFKURPHV (QF\FORSHGLDRI%LRORJLFDO&KHPLVWU\SS(OVHYLHU1HZ<RUN
2OVRQ -0 *UHHQ EDFWHULD WKH OLJKWKDUYHVWLQJ FKORURVRPH(QF\FORSHGLD RI %LRORJLFDO
&KHPLVWU\SS(OVHYLHU1HZ<RUN
2YHUPDQQ-7KHIDPLO\&KORURELDFHDH7KH3URNDU\RWHV'ZRUNLQ0)DONRZ65RVHQEHUJ (6FKOHLIHU.+ 6WDFNHEUDQGW(HGVSS6SULQJHU7KH1HWKHUODQGV
2YHUPDQQ - &\SLRQND + 3IHQQLJ1 $Q H[WUHPHO\ ORZOLJKWDGDSWHGSKRWRWURSKLF VXOIXU EDFWHULXPIURPWKH%ODFN6HD/LPQRO2FHDQRJU
2YHUPDQQ- 7XVFKDN&3K\ORJHQ\DQGPROHFXODUILQJHUSULQWLQJRIJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD
$UFK0LFURELRO±
3DUNLQ7% %URFN7'7KHUROHRISKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULDLQWKHVXOIXUF\FOHRIDPHURPLFWLF ODNH/LPQRO2FHDQRJU±
3HWUL 5 3RGJRUVHN / ,PKRII -) 3K\ORJHQ\ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VR[% JHQH DPRQJ WKLRVXOIDWHR[LGL]LQJEDFWHULD)(060LFURELRO/HWW±
3IHQQLJ17KHSKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULDDQGWKHLUUROHLQWKHVXOIXUF\FOH3ODQWDQG6RLO
ͲϰϯͲ
3LFNHULQJ ,- *HRUJH *1 <X (< %UXQH '& 7XVFKDN & 2YHUPDQQ - %HDWW\ -7 3ULQFH 5&
$QDO\VLV RI VXOIXU ELRFKHPLVWU\ RI VXOIXU EDFWHULD XVLQJ ;UD\ DEVRUSWLRQ VSHFWURVFRS\%LRFKHPLVWU\
3LFNHULQJ ,- 3ULQFH 5& 'LYHUV 7 *HRUJH *1 6XOIXU .HGJH ;UD\ DEVRUSWLRQ VSHFWURVFRS\IRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHFKHPLFDOVSHFLDWLRQRIVXOIXULQELRORJLFDOV\VWHPV)(%6 /HWW±
3UDQJH$$U]EHUJHU,(QJHPDQQ&0RGURZ+6FKXPDQQ27USHU+*6WHXGHO5'DKO&
+RUPHV - ,Q VLWX DQDO\VLV RI VXOIXU LQ WKH VXOIXU JOREXOHV RI SKRWRWURSKLF VXOIXU EDFWHULD E\ ;UD\ DEVRUSWLRQ QHDU HGJH VSHFWURVFRS\%LRFKLP %LRSK\V $FWD *HQHUDO 6XEMHFWV±
3UDQJH $ &KDXYLVWUH 5 0RGURZ + +RUPHV - 7UXSHU +* 'DKO & 4XDQWLWDWLYH VSHFLDWLRQ RI VXOIXU LQ EDFWHULDO VXOIXU JOREXOHV ;UD\ DEVRUSWLRQ VSHFWURVFRS\ UHYHDOV DW OHDVWWKUHHGLIIHUHQWVSHFLHVRIVXOIXU0LFURELRORJ\
4XHQWPHLHU $ +HOOZLJ 3 %DUGLVFKHZVN\ ) *UHOOH * .UDIW 5 )ULHGULFK &* 6XOIXU R[LGDWLRQLQ3DUDFRFFXVSDQWRWURSKXVLQWHUDFWLRQRIWKHVXOIXUELQGLQJSURWHLQ6R[<=ZLWK WKHGLPDQJDQHVH6R[%SURWHLQ%LRFKHP%LRSK\V5HV&RPPXQ±
4XHQWPHLHU$+HOOZLJ3%DUGLVFKHZVN\):LFKPDQQ5 )ULHGULFK&*RWKHUV6XOILGH GHK\GURJHQDVH DFWLYLW\ RI WKH PRQRPHULF IODYRSURWHLQ 6R[) RI3DUDFRFFXVSDQWRWURSKXV
%LRFKHPLVWU\±
4XHQWPHLHU$/L/ )ULHGULFK&,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIWZRLQDFWLYHIRUPVRIWKHFHQWUDOVXOIXU F\FOHSURWHLQ6R[<=RI3DUDFRFFXVSDQWRWURSKXV)(%6/HWW
5DPtUH]3*XLOLDQL19DOHQ]XHOD/%HDUG6 -HUH]&$'LIIHUHQWLDOSURWHLQH[SUHVVLRQ GXULQJJURZWKRI$FLGLWKLREDFLOOXVIHUURR[LGDQVRQIHUURXVLURQVXOIXUFRPSRXQGVRUPHWDO VXOILGHV$SSO(QYLURQ0LFURELRO
5D\PRQG - =KD[\ED\HYD 2 *RJDUWHQ -3 *HUGHV 6< %ODQNHQVKLS 5( :KROHJHQRPH DQDO\VLVRISKRWRV\QWKHWLFSURNDU\RWHV6FLHQFH
ͲϰϰͲ
5RGULJXH] - +LUDV - +DQVRQ 7( 6XOILWH R[LGDWLRQ LQ&KORUREDFXOXP WHSLGXP)URQW 0LFURELRGRLIPLFE
5RWKHU ' 2UDZVNL * %DUGLVFKHZVN\ ) )ULHGULFK &* 6R[56PHGLDWHG UHJXODWLRQ RI FKHPRWURSKLFVXOIXUR[LGDWLRQLQ3DUDFRFFXVSDQWRWURSKXV0LFURELRORJ\
5RWKHU'5LQJN- )ULHGULFK&*6XOIXUR[LGDWLRQRI3DUDFRFFXVSDQWRWURSKXVWKHVXOIXU ELQGLQJSURWHLQ6R[<=LVWKHWDUJHWRIWKHSHULSODVPLFWKLROGLVXOILGHR[LGRUHGXFWDVH6R[6 0LFURELRORJ\
6DGOHU:56WDQLHU5<7KHIXQFWLRQRIDFHWDWHLQSKRWRV\QWKHVLVE\JUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD 3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$
6DJD<6KLJHDNL2+LJXFKL+7DPLDNL+%DFWHULRFKORURSK\OOFKRPRORJFRPSRVLWLRQLQ JUHHQ VXOIXU SKRWRV\QWKHWLF EDFWHULXP &KORURELXP YLEULRIRUPH GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIVRGLXPVXOILGHLQOLTXLGFXOWXUHV3KRWV\QWK5HV
6DJD < 7DPLDNL + &RPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ FKORURVRPHV FRQWDLQLQJ EDFWHULRFKORURSK\OOF DQG FKORURVRPHV FRQWDLQLQJ EDFWHULRFKORURSK\OOG LVRODWHG IURP WZR VXEVWUDLQV RI JUHHQ VXOIXU SKRWRV\QWKHWLF EDFWHULXP &KORURELXP YLEULRIRUPH 1&,% - 3KRWRFKHP 3KRWRELRO
6DNXUDL+2JDZD76KLJD0,QRXH.,QRUJDQLFVXOIXUR[LGL]LQJV\VWHPLQJUHHQVXOIXU EDFWHULD3KRWRV\QWK5HV
6DXYp9%UXQR6%HUNV%& +HPPLQJV$07KH6R[<=FRPSOH[FDUULHVVXOIXUF\FOH LQWHUPHGLDWHVRQDSHSWLGHVZLQJLQJDUP-%LRO&KHP
6FKLSSHUV$%LRJHRFKHPLVWU\RIPHWDOVXOILGHR[LGDWLRQLQPLQLQJHQYLURQPHQWVVHGLPHQWV DQGVRLOV6XOIXUELRJHRFKHPLVWU\6SHFLDO3DSHU
6LUHYnJ5
ͲϰϱͲ
6WHHQVJDDUG'%:DFNHUEDUWK++LOGHEUDQGW3 +RO]ZDUWK$5'LDVWHUHRVHOHFWLYHFRQWURO RI EDFWHULRFKORURSK\OO H DJJUHJDWLRQ 6%&KO H LV HVVHQWLDO IRU WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI FKORURVRPHOLNHDJJUHJDWHV-3K\V&KHP%±
6WHLQPHW] 0$ )LVFKHU 8 &\WRFKURPHV RI WKH JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULXP &KORURELXP YLEULRIRUPHIWKLRVXOIDWRSKLOXP3XULILFDWLRQFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQDQGVXOIXUPHWDEROLVP$UFK 0LFURELRO±
6WHLQPHW] 0$ )LVFKHU 8 7KLRVXOIDWH VXOIXU WUDQVIHUDVHV 5KRGDQHVHV RI&KORURELXP YLEULRIRUPHIWKLRVXOIDWRSKLOXP$UFK0LFURELRO±
7DQJ .+ %ODQNHQVKLS 5( %RWK IRUZDUG DQG UHYHUVH 7&$ F\FOHV RSHUDWH LQ WKH JUHHQ VXOIXUEDFWHULD-%LRO&KHP
7USHU +* &XOWXUH DQG LVRODWLRQ RI SKRWRWURSKLF VXOIXU EDFWHULD IURP WKH PDULQH HQYLURQPHQW+HOJROlQGHUZLVV0HHUHVXQWHUV±
7VXNDWDQL<$]DL&.RQGR7,WRK6 2KRND+3DUDOOHOHOHFWURQGRQDWLRQSDWKZD\VWR F\WRFKURPH F] LQ WKH W\SH , KRPRGLPHULF SKRWRV\QWKHWLF UHDFWLRQ FHQWHU FRPSOH[ RI
&KORURELXPWHSLGXP%LRFKLP%LRSK\V$FWD%LRHQHUJHWLFV
7VXNDWDQL < 0L\DPRWR 5 ,WRK 6 2KRND + 6ROXEOH F\WRFKURPH F &\F$ LV QRW HVVHQWLDOIRUSKRWRV\QWKHWLFHOHFWURQWUDQVIHULQ&KORURELXPWHSLGXP)(%6/HWW
7XVFKDN&*ODHVHU- 2YHUPDQQ-6SHFLILFGHWHFWLRQRIJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULDE\LQVLWX K\EULGL]DWLRQZLWKDIOXRUHVFHQWO\ODEHOHGROLJRQXFOHRWLGHSUREH$UFK0LFURELRO±
9DQ*HPHUGHQ+7KHVXOILGHDIILQLW\RISKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULDLQUHODWLRQWRWKHORFDWLRQRI HOHPHQWDOVXOIXU$UFK0LFURELRO
9HUWp ) .RVWDQMHYHFNL 9 'H 6PHW / 0H\HU 7( &XVDQRYLFK 0$ 9DQ %HHXPHQ -- ,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIDWKLRVXOIDWHXWLOL]DWLRQJHQHFOXVWHUIURPWKHJUHHQSKRWRWURSKLFEDFWHULXP
&KORURELXPOLPLFROD%LRFKHPLVWU\
ͲϰϲͲ
:DKOXQG 70 :RHVH &5 &DVWHQKRO] 5: 0DGLJDQ 07 $ WKHUPRSKLOLF JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULXPIURP1HZ=HDODQGKRWVSULQJV&KORURELXPWHSLGXPVSQRY$UFK0LFURELRO
:DQJ-%UXQH'&%ODQNHQVKLS5((IIHFWRIR[LGDQWVDQGUHGXFWDQWVRQWKHHIILFLHQF\RI H[FLWDWLRQWUDQVIHULQJUHHQSKRWRV\QWKHWLFEDFWHULD%LRFKLP%LRSK\V$FWD
=RSIL - )HUGHOPDQ 7* )RVVLQJ + 'LVWULEXWLRQ DQG IDWH RI VXOIXU LQWHUPHGLDWHV ± VXOILWH WHWUDWKLRQDWH WKLRVXOIDWH DQG HOHPHQWDO VXOIXU ± LQ PDULQH VHGLPHQWV 6XOIXU ELRJHRFKHPLVWU\6SHFLDO3DSHU
ͲϰϳͲ
±&KDSWHU±
ʹ͵Ȃ
&OHOLD'RQD7LPRWK\*)HUGHOPDQ8OULFK)LVFKHU
=HQWUXP IU 8PZHOWIRUVFKXQJ XQG QDFKKDOWLJH 7HFKQRORJLHQ 8)7 DQG )DFKEHUHLFK
%LRORJLH&KHPLH $EWHLOXQJ 0DULQH 0LNURELRORJLH 8QLYHUVLWlW %UHPHQ ' %UHPHQ
*HUPDQ\
,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HVHDUFK6FKRRORI0DULQH0LFURELRORJ\0DU0LF0D[3ODQFN,QVWLWXWIU0DULQH 0LNURELRORJLH'%UHPHQ*HUPDQ\
0D[3ODQFN,QVWLWXW IU 0DULQH 0LNURELRORJLH $EWHLOXQJ %LRJHRFKHPLH ' %UHPHQ
*HUPDQ\
ͲϰϴͲ
$EVWUDFW
7KLRVXOIDWH FDQ EH XVHG E\ VRPH VWUDLQV RI JUHHQ VXOIXU EDFWHULD DV HOHFWURQ GRQRU IRU SKRWRV\QWKHVLV 7KLRVXOIDWH R[LGDWLRQ KDV EHHQ SURSRVHG WR EH SHUIRUPHG E\ WKH 6R[
PXOWLHQ]\PDWLFV\VWHP7RWHVWZKHWKHUWKH6R[PRGHOIRUWKLRVXOIDWHR[LGDWLRQKROGVLQYLYRZH DQDO\]HG WKH G\QDPLFV RI VXOILGH WKLRVXOIDWH VXOIXU VXOIDWH DQG ELRPDVV XQGHU SK\VLRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQVLQFXOWXUHVRI&KORUREDFXOXPSDUYXP'60LOOXPLQDWHGE\GLIIHUHQWOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHV DQGIHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWFRPELQDWLRQVRIVXOILGHDQGWKLRVXOIDWH6XOILGH±WKHILUVWVXOIXUFRPSRXQGWR EHFRQVXPHG±ZDVR[LGL]HGLQSKDVHV7ZRSKDVHVVXOILGHR[LGDWLRQFRXOGEHDQHYLGHQFHRIWKH GLIIHUHQWUROHVRIWKH645VHQFRGHGLQWKHJHQRPHVRIJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD6XOIXUZDVDOZD\VWKH ODVW HOHFWURQ GRQRU WR EH FRQVXPHG ZKLFK VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP IRU H[WUDFHOOXODUVXOIXUR[LGDWLRQVWDUWVRQO\DIWHUVXOILGHDQGWKLRVXOIDWHGHSOHWLRQ&RQYHUVHO\PRUH VXOIDWH WKDQ VXOIXU ZDV SURGXFHG IURP WKLRVXOIDWH R[LGDWLRQ DV WKH LOOXPLQDWLRQ RI WKH FXOWXUHV LQFUHDVHGDQGWKHJURZWKUDWHGXULQJWKLRVXOIDWHFRQVXPSWLRQZDVSRVLWLYHO\FRUUHODWHGZLWKWKH VXOIDWH\LHOGRQWKLRVXOIDWH7KHVHWZRDSSDUHQWO\FRQWUDGLFWRU\UHVXOWVLHODFNRIH[SUHVVLRQRI WKHVXOIXUR[LGL]LQJV\VWHPLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIWKLRVXOIDWHDQGVLPXOWDQHRXVR[LGDWLRQRIVXOIXUDQG WKLRVXOIDWH LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH VLWH RI VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ LV SHULSODVPLF RU H[WUDFHOOXODU 3HULSODVPLF VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ ZRXOG RFFXU GXULQJ WKLRVXOIDWH R[LGDWLRQ ZKLOH H[WUDFHOOXODU VXOIXU R[LGDWLRQ ZRXOGQHHGWKHV\QWKHVLVRIDQLQGXFLEOHV\VWHP)LQDOO\WKHVXOIDWH\LHOGVRQWKLRVXOIDWHDQGWKH IRUPDWLRQRIXQLGHQWLILHGVXOIXUWKDWZHREVHUYHGLQVRPHH[SHULPHQWVVXJJHVWWKHH[LVWHQFHRID SDWKZD\ IRU WKLRVXOIDWH FRQVXPSWLRQ DOWHUQDWLYH WR 6R[
ͲϰϵͲ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
*UHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULD*6%VDUHSKRWROLWKRDXWRWURSKLFPLFURRUJDQLVPVWKDWXVHLQRUJDQLF VXOIXUFRPSRXQGVDV HOHFWURQGRQRUV IRU&2IL[DWLRQ7KHRQO\H[FHSWLRQNQRZQWKXVIDULVWKH
*6%&KORURELXPIHUURR[LGDQVWKDWXVHVLURQ7KHJHQRPHVRIDGR]HQVSHFLHVRI*6%VKDYHEHHQ UHFHQWO\VHTXHQFHGDQGDQDO\]HG5HYLHZVRQWKHVWDWHRIWKHDUWRIJHQRPLFVDQGSK\VLRORJ\DUH SUHVHQWHGE\)ULJDDUGDQG%U\DQWDE)ULJDDUGDQG'DKO&KDQHWDOD DQGE\+DQVRQHWDO:LWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKHDIRUHPHQWLRQHG&KOIHUURR[LGDQVDOO*6%V FDQ R[LGL]H VXOILGH +6 DQG VXOIXU 6 ZKLOH RQO\ IHZ VWUDLQV FDQ R[LGL]H WKLRVXOIDWH
&KORUREDFXOXP OLPQDHXP &OD SDUYXP &OD WHSLGXP &OD WKLRVXOSKDWLSKLOXP &KO FODWKUDWLIRUPH'60 &KO OLPLFROD DQG '60 &KO SKDHRYLEULRLGHV '60 )ULJDDUG 'DKO
7KLRVXOIDWH62ZKRVHVXOIXUPRLHWLHVKDYHYDOHQFHVRIDQG9DLUDYDPXUWK\HW DO KDVEHHQ UHFRJQL]HG DV D NH\ FRPSRXQG LQ WKH VXOIXU F\FOH RI PDULQH DQG IUHVKZDWHU VHGLPHQWV DQG LV JHQHUDOO\ GHWHFWHG LQ WKH VHGLPHQW SRUHZDWHU DW ORZ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV Q00
=RSILHWDO62FDQVHUYHDVHOHFWURQGRQRURUVLQNRUFDQEHGLVSURSRUWLRQDWHGOLQNLQJ WKHR[LGDWLYHDQGUHGXFWLYHSDUWVRIWKHVXOIXUF\FOH)RVVLQJ -¡UJHQVHQ-¡UJHQVHQD E
7KHFRPPRQO\DFFHSWHGPHFKDQLVPIRU62R[LGDWLRQE\*6%VLVDQR[LGDWLYHFOHDYDJH UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI 6 DQG VXOIDWH 62 )ULJDDUG 'DKO $OUHDG\ LQ 7UXGLQJHUKDGIRUPXODWHGWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDW*6%VVWDUW62R[LGDWLRQZLWKDQR[LGDWLYHELQGLQJ RI62WRDWKLRO+RZHYHURQO\UHFHQWO\ZDVLWSRVVLEOHWRDWWULEXWH62R[LGDWLRQLQ*6%VWR WKH6R[FRPSOH[FRQILUPLQJ7UXGLQJHU¶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
PXWDJHQHVLV9HUWpHWDO2JDZDHWDODE&KDQHWDOEKDVFRQILUPHGWKDWWKH 6R[FRPSOH[RI*6%VDFWVVLPLODUO\WRWKH6R[FRPSOH[RIWKH36%$OF9LQRVXP6R[<=LVWKH VFDIIROGWRZKLFK62LVERXQG6R[$;FDWDO\VHVWKHR[LGDWLYHELQGLQJRI62WR6R[<=DQG 6R[%FDWDO\VHVWKHK\GURO\VLVRIWKH62VXOIRQDWHVXOIXUDV62
+RZHYHUWKHFDSDELOLW\RI*6%VWRR[LGL]H62KDVDOVREHHQVKRZQWRLQYROYHJHQHWLF HOHPHQWV DGGLWLRQDO WR WKRVH HQFRGHG LQ WKHVR[ FOXVWHU &KDQ HW DO ESHUIRUPHG JHQRPLF
ͲϱϬͲ
WUDQVFULSWLRQDODQGPXWDWLRQDODQDO\VLVDQGGLVFRYHUHGWKDWDJHQRPLFUHJLRQH[WHUQDOWRWKHVR[
FOXVWHU&7LVUHTXLUHGIRU62R[LGDWLRQLQWKH*6%&ODWHSLGXP0p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
V\VWHP±YLD6
7KHDLPRIRXUVWXG\ZDVWRFODULI\LIWKHSURSRVHGPRGHOIRU62R[LGDWLRQE\WKH6R[
V\VWHPLVVXIILFLHQWWRH[SODLQWKHLQYLYRWXUQRYHURI626DQG62DVZHOODVWKHELRPDVV IRUPDWLRQ LQ D *6% 2XU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ FRQGXFWHG RQ FXOWXUHV RI&OD SDUYXPIRUPHU&KO YLEULRIRUPHIWKLRVXOSKDWRSKLOXP'60H[DPLQHGWKHSUHIHUHQWLDOR[LGDWLRQRI+6RU62 RYHU6DQGWKHVWRLFKLRPHWU\RI62R[LGDWLRQLQGHSHQGHQFHRQGLIIHUHQWOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHV
0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV
0HGLXP DQG FXOWLYDWLRQ PHWKRGV&XOWLYDWLRQ ZDV FDUULHG RXW LQ WKH PHGLXP VXJJHVWHGE\ WKH '60= 'HXWVFKH 6DPPOXQJ YRQ 0LNURRUJDQLVPHQ XQG =HOONXOWXUHQ *PE+ %UDXQVFKZHLJ
*HUPDQ\IRUJUHHQVXOIXUEDFWHULDZKLFKZDVSUHSDUHGGLVVROYLQJLQOLWUHRIGLVWLOOHGZDWHU J&D&OÂ+2.+32J1+&OJ.&OJ0J62Â+2DQGJ 1D&O$IWHUDXWRFODYLQJDQGFRROLQJP//RIYLWDPLQ%P//RIWUDFHHOHPHQW VROXWLRQ6/%PO/+&OJ/)H62Â+2PJ/=Q&OPJ/0Q&O Â+2PJ/+%2PJ/&R&OÂ+2PJ/&X&OÂ+2PJ/1L&OÂ +2PJ/1D0R2Â+2DQGPO/1D+&20ZHUHDGGHG7KHPHGLXPZDV ILUVWVDWXUDWHGZLWK&2DQGWKHQJDVVHGZLWK1XQWLODS+RI&XOWLYDWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWLQ /RUP/ERWWOHV,QWKHODWWHUFDVHPHGLXPZDVDOLTXRWHGLQWKHILQDOFXOWLYDWLRQERWWOHVXQGHU1 IOXVK$VFRUELFDFLGP0DQG02361PRUSKROLQRSURSDQHVXOIRQLFDFLGP0S+
ZHUHVXEVHTXHQWO\DGGHGWRVFDYHQJHUHVLGXDOR[\JHQDQGWRHQVXUHS+VWDELOLW\GXULQJWKHFRXUVH RIWKHH[SHULPHQWV&XOWXUHVZHUHLQFXEDWHGDW&LOOXPLQDWHGE\SKRWRQIOX[GHQVLWLHVUDQJLQJ IURPOHVVWKDQWR(PVHFDQGFRQWLQXRXVO\VWLUUHGDWUSP,OOXPLQDWLRQZDVSURYLGHG E\ QHRQ OLJKW WXEHV %LROX[ /: 2VUDP 0XQLFK *HUPDQ\ +6 ZDV DGGHG WR D ILQDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIP062WRILQDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIRUP0
ͲϱϭͲ
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
)RU HDFK H[SHULPHQW D JO\FHURO VWRFN P/ ZDV JURZQ LQ P/LQRUJDQLF PHGLXP VXSSOLHG ZLWK DVFRUELF DFLG P0 VXOILGH P0 DQG 62 P0 LQFXEDWHG DW D OLJKW LQWHQVLW\RIȝ(PVHFDQGDWHPSHUDWXUHRI&7KLVSUHFXOWXUHZDVXVHGDVLQRFXOXPRU YROXPHIRUWKHH[SHULPHQWV
$QDO\WLFDO SURFHGXUHV&RQVXPSWLRQ DQGSURGXFWLRQ RI LQRUJDQLF VXOIXU FRPSRXQGV DQG JURZWK ZHUHPRQLWRUHGLQGHSHQGHQFHRIWLPH6DPSOHVZHUHZLWKGUDZQIURPWKHFXOWXUHVXVLQJ1IOXVKHG V\ULQJHV DQG LQMHFWLQJ DQ HTXDO YROXPH RI 1 WR PDLQWDLQ D VOLJKW RYHUSUHVVXUH DQG WR DYRLG 2 SHQHWUDWLRQLQWRWKHFXOWXUHERWWOHV
:LWKGUDZQVDPSOHVZHUHIL[HGLQYROXPHVRI]LQFDFHWDWHVROXWLRQDQGXVHGIRUWKH TXDQWLILFDWLRQRIEDFWHULRFKORURSK\OOFSURWHLQV+666262DQG626DPSOHVXVHG IRUVXOILWH62TXDQWLILFDWLRQZHUHIL[HGLQDVROXWLRQRIPRQREURPRELPDQHP%U%HVVHQWLDOO\
DFFRUGLQJWR5HWKPH\HUHWDO7KHTXDQWLW\RIP%U%HPSOR\HGZDVKRZHYHULQFUHDVHGLQ FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKH KLJK DPRXQWV RI 62 P0 SUHVHQW LQ WKH DQDO\]HG VDPSOHV O VDPSOHVZHUHIL[HGZLWKOP%U%P0DQGWKHUHDFWLRQZDVVWRSSHGDIWHUPLQE\WKH DGGLWLRQ RI P/ PHWKDQHVXOIRQLF DFLG P0 1RQIL[HG VDPSOHV ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH TXDQWLILFDWLRQRI6DWRPVEHORQJLQJWRSRO\VXOILGHV
%DFWHULRFKORURSK\OOZDVH[WUDFWHGE\PL[LQJRQHSDUWRIDIL[HGVDPSOHZLWKIRXUSDUWVRI PHWKDQRO$IWHULQFXEDWLRQIRUKRXUVDW&LQWKHGDUNVDPSOHVZHUHFHQWULIXJHGDWUSP IRUPLQLQDEHQFKWRSPLFURFHQWULIXJH%LRIXJHSLFR+HUDHXV+DQDX*HUPDQ\$EVRUEDQFHRI WKHVXSHUQDWDQWZDVPHDVXUHGDWQPDJDLQVWDEODQNRIPHWKDQRO%DFWHULRFKORURSK\OOF FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHGXVLQJWKHDEVRUEDQFHFRHIILFLHQWRIFP/JDFFRUGLQJWR6WDOHW DO 3URWHLQ FRQWHQW ZDV GHWHUPLQHG XVLQJ WKH %UDGIRUG PLFURDVVD\ DV GHVFULEHG E\
0XNKRSDGK\D\HWDO
+6FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHGDFFRUGLQJWR&OLQH6DWRPVEHORQJLQJWRRUJDQLF SRO\VXOILGHVZHUHTXDQWLILHGDFFRUGLQJWR<FHOHWDO%ULHIO\P/FXOWXUHZDVH[WUDFWHG ZLWKP/PHWKDQROWROXHQHVXEVHTXHQWO\DFLGLILHGZLWKP/1+&OIOXVKHGIRUPLQ
ͲϱϮͲ
UHH[WUDFWHGZLWKP/PHWKDQROWROXHQH2UJDQLFSRO\VXOILGHVZHUHPHDVXUHGDV6IURPWKH VHFRQGPHWKDQROWROXHQHH[WUDFW
6 62 62 62 DQG 62 ZHUH TXDQWLILHG E\ +3/& XVLQJ D 0HUFN+LWDFKL LQWHOOLJHQW SXPS / DQ DXWRVDPSOHU $6$ DQ RYHQ / 899,6 / IOXRUHVFHQFH ) DQG FRQGXFWLYLW\GHWHFWRU / 62 62 DQG 62 ZHUH TXDQWLILHGIURPIL[HGVDPSOHVDIWHUILOWUDWLRQPSRUHVL]HEDVHGRQWKHPHWKRGGHVFULEHGE\
0LXUDDQG.DZDRLDQGPRGLILHGDVIROORZVVHSDUDWLRQZDVDFKLHYHGE\D/L&KURVSKHU 53VHOHFW % FROXPQ [ PP P 0HUFN HOXWLQJ ZLWK P0 WHWUDSURS\ODPPRQLXP EURPLGH )OXND LQ +3/&JUDGH DFHWRQLWULOHS+ SXPSHG DW D IORZ UDWH RI P/ PLQ 7HPSHUDWXUH ZDV NHSW FRQVWDQW DW & 62 DQG 62 ZHUH GHWHFWHG DW QP 62 E\
FRQGXFWLYLW\)RU6TXDQWLILFDWLRQIL[HGVDPSOHVZHUHGLOXWHGLQ+3/&JUDGHPHWKDQROLQFXEDWHG RYHUQLJKWDW&DQGVXEVHTXHQWO\ILOWHUHGPSRUHVL]H6ZDVDQDO\]HGDFFRUGLQJWR=RSILHW DO XVLQJ D /L&KURVSKHU 53 FROXPQ [ PP P 0HUFN 'DUPVWDGW
*HUPDQ\
62ZDVTXDQWLILHGHVVHQWLDOO\DFFRUGLQJWR5HWKPHLHUHWDOEXWXVLQJDVOLJKWO\PRGLILHG JUDGLHQWPLQ%PLQ%PLQ%PLQ%PLQ%
5HVXOWV
7KLRVXOIDWHR[LGDWLRQLQGHSHQGHQFHRQOLJKWLQWHQVLW\
,QEDWFK FXOWXUHV RI VWUDLQ&ODSDUYXP '60 +6 62 DQG 6 ZHUH GHSOHWHG RQH DIWHUWKHRWKHUDVVKRZQLQ)LJ$+6ZDVDOZD\VWKHILUVWFRPSRXQGWRGLVDSSHDU6LPXOWDQHRXV WR+6GHFUHDVHZDV6LQFUHDVH+6ZDVFRQVXPHGLQWZRSKDVHVYHU\IDVWDWWKHEHJLQQLQJ)LJ
$PROLQKWLPHKDQGPRUHVORZO\DIWHUZDUGV)LJ$PROLQ KWLPHK2QFH+6KDGEHHQGHSOHWHG62DPRXQWVWDUWHGGHFUHDVLQJDVZHOOZKLOHWKH DPRXQWVRI62DQG6LQFUHDVHG6ZDVDOZD\VWKHODVWFRPSRXQGEHGHSOHWHG:KLOH6DPRXQW GHFUHDVHGWKHDPRXQWRI62LQFUHDVHG$ODJSKDVHH[LVWHGEHWZHHQWKHGHSOHWLRQRI62DQG WKHFRQVXPSWLRQRI6WKHLQFUHDVHRI62DPRXQWVORZHGGRZQDQGVWRSSHGIRUDERXWK)LJ
$WLPHKDIWHU62DPRXQWKDGEHHQUHGXFHGWR]HURDQGSURFHHGHGWKHQDJDLQ ZKHQWKHDPRXQWRI6VWDUWHGWRGHFUHDVH)LJ$3URWHLQSURGXFWLRQVWRSSHGDVZHOOGXULQJWKH VDPHK)LJ%WLPHK
6WUDLQ'60IDYRXUHG+6RYHU62DQG6DQG62RYHU6LQGHSHQGHQWRIOLJKW LQWHQVLW\ IURP OHVV WKDQ WR ( P VHF RU WHPSHUDWXUH RU & GDWD QRW VKRZQ ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH REVHUYHG VWRLFKLRPHWU\ RI 62 R[LGDWLRQ 7DE ZDV LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH OLJKW LQWHQVLW\DWZKLFKVWUDLQ'60ZDVFXOWLYDWHG:LWKLQFUHDVLQJOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHVWKHDPRXQWRI 62 SURGXFHG SHU PROH RI R[LGL]HG 62 LQFUHDVHG ZKLOH WKH DPRXQW RI 6 GHFUHDVHG $W DOO
ͲϱϯͲ
WHVWHGOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHVPRUH62WKDQ6ZDVSURGXFHGIURP62R[LGDWLRQ$WOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHV
(PVHF6DQG62ZHUHQRWWKHRQO\SURGXFWVRI62R[LGDWLRQPRORI6 DWRPV ZKLFK GLG QRW EHORQJ WR VXOILGH 6 62 62 RU 62 ZHUH SURGXFHG SHU PROH RI FRQVXPHG 62 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI 6DWRPV EHORQJLQJ WR XQLGHQWLILHG VXOIXU VSHFLHV ZDV JUHDWHVWP0LQFXOWXUHVLOOXPLQDWHGZLWKOHVVWKDQ(PVHF
*URZWKSDUDPHWHUVRIVWUDLQ'60ZHUHDOVRLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHOLJKWLQWHQVLW\DWZKLFK VWUDLQ'60ZDVFXOWLYDWHG7DE7KHJURZWKUDWHRIVWUDLQ'60KDGDPD[LPXPDW
(PVHFDQGVOLJKWO\GHFOLQHGDWKLJKHULOOXPLQDWLRQV)LJ63URWHLQDQGEDFWHULRFKORURSK\OO F\LHOGVRQ62JHQHUDOO\LQFUHDVHGZLWKOLJKWLQWHQVLW\*URZWKUDWHVDQG62\LHOGVRQ62 ZHUHSRVLWLYHO\FRUUHODWHG)LJ
&XOWLYDWLRQRQH[FHVVRIVXOILGH
$VVKRZQLQ)LJWKHR[LGDWLRQRIERWK6DQG62E\VWUDLQ'60ZDVLQKLELWHGE\
+6PDLQWDLQHGDWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIP0E\VXFFHVVLYHDGGLWLRQVRYHUDSHULRGRIGD\V62 FRQFHQWUDWLRQGLGQRWLQFUHDVHGXULQJWKHFRXUVHRIWKHH[SHULPHQW62DOVRUHPDLQHGSUHVHQWDW ORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQVGXULQJWKLVH[SHULPHQW
&XOWLYDWLRQRQH[FHVVRIWKLRVXOIDWH
62SUHIHUHQWLDOR[LGDWLRQRYHU6ZDVIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWHGE\IHHGLQJEDWFKFXOWXUHVRI VWUDLQ '60 ZLWK DQ H[FHVV RI 62 $ VXPPDU\ RI 62 R[LGDWLRQ SURGXFWV DV ZHOO DV EDFWHULRFKORURSK\OOFDQGSURWHLQFRQWHQWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DE,QFXOWXUHVLOOXPLQDWHGZLWK(
P VHF FDVH $ DQ HTXLPRODU DPRXQW RI 62 ZDV SURGXFHG IURP 62 R[LGDWLRQ ZKLOH LQ FXOWXUHVLOOXPLQDWHGZLWK(PVHFFDVH%DWWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWGD\VIRUFXOWXUHV LOOXPLQDWHGE\(PVHFYHUVXVGD\VIRUFXOWXUHVRU(PVHFWKHUHZDVOHVV 62WKDQZKDWLVH[SHFWHGIURPDQR[LGDWLYHFOHDYDJHRI62)LJ$WERWKOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHV OHVV6WKDQH[SHFWHGZDVIRXQG6XFKDGHILFLWZDVKLJKHULQFXOWXUHVLOOXPLQDWHGZLWK(P VHF
$VSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEDWWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWFDVH$RUFDVH%P0RI6 DWRPV FRXOG QRW EH DVVLJQHG WR DQ\ FRPSRXQG ,Q FDVH % 62 DQG 6DWRPV EHORQJLQJ WR SRO\VXOILGHV ZHUH PHDVXUHG WRR 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI 62 ZDV 0 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI 6 DWRPVEHORQJLQJWRSRO\VXOILGHVZDVP0ZKLFKRQO\DFFRXQWHGIRURIWKHWRWDOXQLGHQWLILHG 6DWRPV
ͲϱϰͲ 'LVFXVVLRQ
2[LGDWLRQRIVXOILGH
7KH G\QDPLFV RI +6 R[LGDWLRQ LQ VWUDLQ '60 VXJJHVWV WKH SUHVHQFH RI WZR GLVWLQFW V\VWHPVIRUVXOILGHR[LGDWLRQRQHDFWLQJDWKLJKVXOILGHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVP0WKHRWKHUZKLFK VHHPVWRQHHGLQGXFWLRQZRUNLQJDWORZHUVXOILGHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVP0DWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKH VHFRQGSKDVH)LJ$6$SKDVHGR[LGDWLRQRI+6ZDVREVHUYHGDOVRLQFXOWXUHVLOOXPLQDWHG ZLWKOHVVWKDQ(PVHF)LJ6%DVHGRQJHQRPLFVWUDQVFULSWRPLFVDQGPXWDWLRQDOVWXGLHV
&KDQHWDOK\SRWKHVLVHGWKDWRIWKHVXOILGHTXLQRQHUHGXFWDVHV645VHQFRGHGLQWKH JHQRPH RI WKH *6%&OD WHSLGXP JHQHV &7 DQG&7 DUH QHHGHG WR R[LGL]H KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI+6P0ZKLOHWKHWKLUG645JHQH&7ZRXOGIXQFWLRQDWORZ+6 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV7KHJHQRPHRIVWUDLQ'60HQFRGHV645VZKRVHDPLQRDFLGVHTXHQFHVDUH PRUH WKDQ LGHQWLFDO WR WKH 645V HQFRGHG E\ WKH *6%&OD WHSLGXPJHQHV&SDUB
&SDUBDQG&SDUBKRPRORJXHVRI&7&7DQG&7UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHWZR GLVWLQFWSKDVHVRI+6R[LGDWLRQE\VWUDLQ'60PLJKWWKXVEHDWWULEXWHGWRWKHDFWLRQRIWKH JHQHSURGXFWVRI&SDUBDQG&SDUBDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHEDWFKLQFXEDWLRQZKHQ+6 FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LV KLJKHU WKDQ P0 &SDUB ZKHQ +6 FRQFHQWUDWLRQ GURSV WR P0 0XWDWLRQDOVWXGLHVRQVWUDLQ'60DQGDQDO\VLVRIWKHWUDQVFULSWVRIWKH645VGXULQJWKH SKDVHVRI+6R[LGDWLRQDUHKRZHYHUQHHGHGWRGUDZGHILQLWLYHFRQFOXVLRQV
:HVKRZWKDWWKH*6%&ODSDUYXP'60SUHIHUVWRR[LGL]H+6RYHU62DQG6 7KLVSDWWHUQLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHJHQHUDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI*6%VDVGHVFULEHGE\%UXQH +RZHYHU WKLV SUHIHUHQFH IRU VXOILGH RYHU WKLRVXOIDWH DQG HOHPHQWDO VXOIXU GLIIHUV WR ZKDW UHVXOWV UHFHQWO\DVFULEHGWRWKH*6%&ODWHSLGXP+RONHQEULQNHWDO
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
7KHSUHIHUHQWLDOR[LGDWLRQRI+6RYHU6PLJKWEHFRQVHTXHQFHRIH[SUHVVLRQLQKLELWLRQRI WKH 6 R[LGL]LQJ V\VWHP E\ +6 62 RU ERWK (OHPHQWV QHHGHG IRU 6 R[LGDWLRQ KDYH WR EH V\QWKHVLVHGDIWHU62GHSOHWLRQDVVKRZQE\WKHKODJSKDVHEHWZHHQ62GHSOHWLRQDQG6 R[LGDWLRQ7KXVDWOHDVWSDUWRIWKH6R[LGL]LQJV\VWHPLVQRWFRQVWLWXWLYHO\H[SUHVVHGLQFHOOVRI VWUDLQ'60$FWLYDWLRQRIWKH6R[LGL]LQJV\VWHPE\6LWVHOIDOWKRXJKWKHRUHWLFDOO\SRVVLEOH