PART IV: RESEARCH METHODS
8. Research matrix
Research domain
Core questions (objectives I and II)
1.1 (Observed & measured) How is rainfall variability changing against long-term historical patterns in the sites of interest?
• 1.1.a Too much or too little rainfall in the past 10-20 years, measured against longer-term his-torical averages
– What different words do you have in your language for “rain”? What is the meaning of these different kinds of rain?
• 1.1.b Less predictable seasons (such as loss of transitional seasons) in the past 10-20 years, measured against longer-term historical averages – What are the names of the seasons in this area, and when do they start now (and historically)?
• 1.1.c More erratic rainfall (such as cloudbursts) in the past 10-20 years, measured against longer-term historical averages
– What factors are important to you (such as when seasons begin and end – when to plant seeds; what quality of rain comes – flash floods or gentle rains)?
– What, exactly, is happening with rainfall patterns? How typical is this of the area (to what extent might it reflect microclimates)?
1.2 Are rainfall variability patterns expected to change in coming decades, against long-term histori-cal patterns in the countries or sites of interest?
• Too much or too little rainfall in the coming 10-20 years, measured against longer-term historical averages
• Less predictable seasons (such as loss of tran-sitional seasons) in the coming 10-20 years, measured against longer-term historical averages
• More erratic rainfall (such as cloudbursts) in the coming 10-20 years, measured against longer-term historical averages. What do experts think rainfall patterns will be like in 10–30 years from now? Why?
Method 1.1 HH survey
1.1 Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) input (before field visits)
1.1 UNU-EHS literature review (before field visits)
• 1.1.a PRA: Timeline on impor-tant Events and Rainfall &
Trend Analysis
• 1.1.b PRA: Seasonal Calendar on Livelihood, Food Security and Migration in the context of Agro-Ecological Changes
& Venn Diagram on Food Security
• 1.1.b Expert interviews
• 1.1.c Data from daily weather station readings (ideally syn-optic weather stations)
• 1.1.c PRA: Impact Diagram
& Focus Group Discussion on Coping and Adaptation with rainfall variability and food security
• 1.1.c Expert interviews
1.2 CIESIN input (before field visits)
1.2 Expert interviews
Sampling: Who do we need to talk with?
1.1.a PRA: One group (8-10 persons) of male and female elders and middle-aged persons
1.1.b PRA: (both for base camp and satellite villages):
• One mixed group of men (7-10 persons) including elders and other age groups that are farmers and non- farmers
• One mixed group of women (7-10 persons) including elders and other age groups that are farmers and non- farmers
1.1.c PRA: Two groups:
• One mixed male group of farmers, pastoralists, etc.
• One mixed group of women
1.1.c Expert interviews: Officers with access to quantitative local weather observations, etc.
Research domain
Core questions (objectives I and II)
2.0 What are the most important actors and institutions in the community with regards to food security?
2.1 Does rainfall variability affect livelihood security today?
• Economic situation
• Food security – Does rainfall variability affect food production?
– Does rainfall variability affect the stability of food supplies?
• Drinking water availability
2.2 How do people cope with rainfall variability today?
2.3 Would rainfall variability affect livelihood security in the coming decades, under given future scenarios?
• Economic situation
• Food security
• Would rainfall variability af-fect food production?
• Would rainfall variability affect the stability of food supplies?
• Drinking water availability
Method
2.0 PRA: Seasonal Calendar on Livelihood, Food Security and Migration in the context of Agro-Ecological Changes & Venn Diagram on Food Security
2.1 PRA1: Impact Diagram &
Focus Group Discussion on Cop-ing and Adaptation with rainfall variability and food security
2.1 HH survey
2.1 PRA2: Seasonal Calendar on Livelihood, Food Security and Migration in the context of Agro-Ecological Changes & Venn Diagram on Food Security
2.2 HH survey
2.2 PRA: Ranking of coping strategies with regard to rainfall variability
2.3 PRA: Focus Group Discussion on future strategies
2.3 Expert interviews
2.3 Agent-based modelling (after field visits)
Sampling: Who do we need to talk with?
2.0 PRA: Two groups:
• One mixed group of men (farmers/non- farmers)
• One mixed group of women (farmers/
non-farmers)
2.1 PRA1: Two groups:
• One mixed male group of farmers, pastoralists etc.
• One mixed group of women
2.1 PRA2: Different groups:
• One mixed group of men (farmers/non-farmers)
• One mixed group of women (farmers/
non-farmers)
2.2 PRA: Three groups:
• One mixed group (women and men) of farmers, pastoralists/people whose economic activities depend much on rainfall (6-8 persons)
• One mixed group (women and men) of non-farmers/people whose economic activities do not depend much on rain-fall (6-8 persons)
• One mixed group (women and men) of the most vulnerable (6-8 persons)
2.3 PRA: One mixed group (women and men) of young people (need to be working already, ages at least 15 years old to ca. 30 years old; jobs should be related to rainfall such as farmers, pastoralists, fishers, marketers of agricultural products
Research domain
Dependent variable:
Mobility patterns
Core questions (objectives I and II)
3.0 What are the local migration dynamics?
• What is the spatial pattern of migration in your area today?
• What is the temporal pattern of migration in your area today?
3.1 What are the variables that affect migration today?
• How important is each of these variables (in managing risk)?
• How important is rainfall variability relative to other reasons for migration?
3.2 If rainfall is one of those variables, does rainfall variability cause HHs to send one or more persons to a different place (i.e.
to migrate) today?
3.3 Would rainfall variability cause HHs to send one or more persons to a different place (i.e. to migrate) in the coming decades, under given future scenarios?
Method
3.0 PRA: Mobility map on migra-tion plus Focus Group Discussion
3.0 HH survey
3.1 PRA: Venn Diagram on migra-tion “support systems”
3.1 HH survey
3.2 HH survey
3.2 Expert interviews
3.2 PRA: Mobility map on migra-tion plus Focus Group Discussion
3.3 PRA: Focus Group Discussion on future strategies
3.3 Expert interviews
3.3 Agent-based modelling (after field visits)
Sampling: Who do we need to talk with?
3.0 PRA: Two separate groups (6-7 persons):
• One group of male persons with migra-tion experience
• One group of female persons with migration experience
3.1 PRA: Two separate groups (7-10 persons):
• One group of male persons with migra-tion experience
• One group of female persons with migration experience
3.2 Expert interviews in capital cities and local villages (ministries, environment and migration experts, NGOs and church groups, agricultural extension officers, vil-lage mayors, etc.)
3.2 PRA: Two separate groups (6 – 7 persons):
• One group of male persons with migra-tion experience
• One group of female persons with migration experience
3.3 PRA: One mixed group (women and men) of young people (need to be working already, ages at least 15 years old to ca. 30 years old; job should be related to rainfall such as farmers, pastoralists, fishers, mar-keters of agricultural products)
3.3 Experts in capital cities and local villages (ministries, environment and migra-tion experts, NGOs and church groups, agricultural extension officers, village mayors, etc.)