Here a strategic issue of system 1 (the layer marked A) is a n only intermediate layer is- sue of system 4; and an intermediate layer issue of system 1 (marked with B) is a stra- tegic issue of systems 2, 3 and an operational layer issue of system 4. System 5 rests in a niche.
exploited to derive scenarios to drive intermediate layer feedback models. Via- bility is achieved with a "reasonable" diversification (e.g., by portfolio analysis).
more general with a "reasonable" variety and with a "reasonable" dependence of the system on its outside environment, and with about four o t h e r strategies including the use of (subsystems with) e r r a t i c behavior t o keep t h e system vigorous and adaptable. Each scenario may affect a feedback system simul- taneously a t several or even many points. M e c t e d a r e parameters of t h e model, or (nonlinear) functional relationships. or branching points in behavior.
Also, exchanges of variables or subsystems of the model may be necessary.
Some examples of the scenario generation by t h e viability concept a r e reported in Grossmann (1983). Theoretical concepts applicable h e r e a r e t h e "second order cybernetics" or "cybernetics of cybernetics" (von Foerster 1975, Dobuzin- ski 1980). Vester's "sensitiviLy analysis" and "biocybernetic rules" (Vester and von Hesler 1980, Vester 1976, 1980), or Prigogine's (1972, 1976) concepts, Bossel's (1977) survivability and Holling's (1978) resilience (whereas usual cybernetics refer t o the intermediate layers).
-
35 -Scenarios help to test feedback models. But how can the scenarios them- selves be tested? The viability and t h e ekistic approach can be used t o gen- e r a t e scenarios and to make t h e m more consistent. However, scenarios cannot be validated as the structural uncertainty i s an inherent feature of t h e highest layer, and there a r e good reasons t o assume t h a t this feature is even necessary for viability. Therefore usually several different scenarios a r e used.
3.3 Applications
The ideas developed here came out of the necessities of applications, and they a r e now applied in several projects. The forest damage aspect of t h e
MAB6
Berchtesgaden project was outlined in 3.2.1. Within this project, t h e r e will be applications of a model on forest, population, a n d environment ("framework model") and of the Geographical Information Systems to quite different areas, for example, problems i n tourism.
Scientists from t h e "Bureau for Systems Analysis" (Budapest,
I.
Lang,H.
Zsolt,
I.
Valyi,F.
Todt, T. Asboth a n d many more) developed a large scale dynamic LP model on t h e possibilities of increasing scale and t h e intensity of use of biological renewable resources (Lang and Harnos 1962). They also imple- m e n t e d t h e Framework model for Hungary (mainlyI.
Valyi and F. Todt). Now a synthesis will be started.At IIASA. B. Clemens (1983) evaluated detailed data on Austrian women with t h e multistate analysis with respect t o transitions such as from married t o divorced or widowed state, or changes in the number of children. Multistate analysis is a typical lower layer method. which in Clemens' work was linked with a long-term dynamic feedback model on secular trends with respect t o libera- tion of women, etc.
With planners in Munchen a project is underway to develop new combined agricultural-silvicultural approaches t o yield higher quality products, s u p
-
36-
ported by the hierarchical synthesis, based on the Geographical Information System and made available t o the local managers with "Teletext" (a simple type of telecommunication).
In problems in human ecosystems, approaches can be based on scale, issues and methods. Considerations on scale are facilitated with an ekistic matrix. Methodologies for multifaceted problems are integrated with a hierarchical scheme. Interdependencies between elements (from different areas) are depicted in aggregated feedback models, this simultaneously i s an integration of areas.
The synthesis between approaches based on scale a n d the hierarchical approach helps t o evaluate the outside environment of a system. Synthesis of approaches provides very powerful new tools, which lead, for example. to new possibilities in the problem a r e a of pollution a n d collapse of forests.
A t
present, other applications are being pursued.In particular, in the synthesis approaches aiming a t viability can be com- bined with approaches aiming a t holistic representations and with approaches aiming a t precise detailed representations.
This synthesis can remove many of t h e weaknesses of t h e individual approaches and therefore turned out t o be highly applicable and effective.
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