According to the procedure previously described, the emissions of GHGs by the Brazilian productive sectors in 2005 are presented in the following table, by region of our interregional input-output model (in thousand tons).
A first important point to note is that CO2 emissions from Amazon are substantially higher than those of the rest of Brazil: in 2005, about 63% of the liquid anthropogenic emissions of CO2 were concentrated in this region. From it, approximately 98% were due to agricultural activities in the region – more specifically, they are results from land-use change in the biome.
In 2005, stood out the expansion of pasture of cattle in the Amazon, which was exclusively responsible for about 36% of Brazilian liquid emissions of CO2. The expansion of agricultural area occupied by soybean was also a major source of CO2
emissions, both in the Amazon region and in other regions of the country. In total, the land-use change due to the expansion of soybean crops accounted for one third of the Brazilian CO2 emissions in 2005. In Amazon, it was responsible for almost 30% of the regional liquid emissions of CO2. One should also emphasize the CO2 emissions due to the expansion of sugarcane crops in other Brazilian regions.
Table 10 – GHGs emissions per sector, Amazon and rest of Brazil, year 2005 (in thousand tons)
CO2 CH4 N2O CO2eq - GWP-100 CO2eq - GTP-100
AMZ RBR AMZ RBR AMZ RBR AMZ RBR AMZ RBR
1 Sugarcane 2 819.40 49 828.43 14.43 245.38 0.56 9.32 3 297.36 57 872.14 3 043.92 53 573.05
2 Soybean 293 335.36 228 021.31 712.91 552.67 9.10 12.64 311 128.06 243 544.60 299 357.41 234 196.47 3 Cattle 576 378.17 6 400.01 4 005.22 8 776.87 80.22 237.43 685 357.30 264 318.99 618 064.76 114 391.64 4 Other activities of Agriculture and Livestock 107 410.07 9 242.25 480.33 1 043.84 20.55 128.67 123 867.01 71 049.40 115 359.79 49 201.25
5 Mining 1 900.17 19 108.83 27.69 322.31 0.01 0.12 2 485.38 25 913.92 2 041.87 20 752.23
6 Nonmetallic Mineral Products 2 071.66 30 296.34 0.26 4.74 0.02 0.45 2 083.96 30 534.74 2 078.94 30 440.96 7 Primary Metal and Fabricated Metal Prod. 5 581.55 60 022.45 2.96 43.04 0.09 1.24 5 703.93 61 311.97 5 648.76 60 573.60
8 Machinery and Equipment 8.43 1 291.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 832.30 1 291.57 726.00 1 291.57
9 Electrical and Electronic Equipments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.78 0.00 1.55 0.00
10 Transportation Equipment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11 Wood, Furniture and Paper Products 110.11 3 840.89 0.05 1.75 0.01 0.49 115.48 4 028.32 114.12 3 980.88
12 Ethanol Fuel 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13 Refined Petroleum Products 310.16 22 304.84 0.27 19.23 0.00 0.00 315.78 22 708.72 311.50 22 401.00 14 Other Chemical Prod. and Pharmaceuticals 438.75 26 867.25 0.01 0.49 0.67 21.43 651.83 33 521.38 624.22 32 656.26 15 Textiles, Textiles Products and Footwear 14.96 1 231.04 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.03 15.15 1 246.45 15.08 1 240.52
16 Food Products 393.71 3 479.29 1.89 16.71 0.25 2.19 510.31 4 509.69 470.13 4 154.67
17 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 155.33 6 339.67 0.02 0.78 0.00 0.00 155.73 6 356.07 155.42 6 343.58
18 Electricity 2 507.88 23 478.12 0.14 1.36 0.00 0.00 2 510.92 23 506.58 2 508.60 23 484.90
19 Gas, Water and Waste Services 4.64 105.36 111.43 1 631.57 0.59 13.41 2 527.76 38 525.24 721.27 11 883.73
20 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21 Wholesale and Retail Trade 167.97 1 786.03 0.11 1.19 0.00 0.04 171.38 1 822.32 169.46 1 801.84
22 Transportation 6 799.38 91 156.88 0.53 7.22 0.10 1.56 6 842.14 91 791.77 6 829.62 91 613.85
23 Other Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24 Public Administration 168.35 1 570.65 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01 168.70 1 573.93 168.61 1 573.02
Total 1 000 576.06 586 371.21 5 358.26 12 669.49 112.19 429.02 1 148 742.26 985 427.81 1 058 411.02 765 555.03 Source: Research data
In the rest of Brazil, it is also relevant to indicate the importance of the CO2 emissions corresponding to the Transportation and the Primary Metals and Fabricated Metal Products sectors. In the former, the CO2 emissions are due to the utilization of diesel, gasoline and natural gas in the Brazilian system of road freight transport. Regarding the metallurgic activities, one needs to notice how they are energy intensive in the Brazilian productive structure. Besides this, a large amount of its CO2 emissions are due industrial processes for the production of steel and aluminum.
Concerning the CH4 emissions, almost two thirds of it in Brazil are due to Enteric fermentation in cattle. In this way, the CH4 emissions of the Amazon region will rise as its areas of pasture expand. Furthermore, land-use change was responsible for about 17% of the Brazilian emissions of this gas in 2005. Waste management, in its turn, was responsible for 10% of the total CH4 emissions in the country.
Brazilian N2O emissions are due mainly to agricultural land. Animals kept on pasture and indirect emissions from cattle responded for more than 60% of N2O emissions in Brazil, in 2005. Land-use change, soybean residuals and burning of sugarcane waste were responsible for great part of the remaining emissions of this gas.
Under both metrics for aggregation of the GHGs emissions that were considered in the present work – GWP-100 and GTP-100 – the role of the Amazon region stands out.
However, under the GTP-100 metric, which assigns less weight to CH4 and N2O in the global warming process, the participation of the Amazon region in the total of CO2eq emissions in Brazil increases from 54% (under the GWP-100 metric) to 58%, since this region principally outstands in the emissions of CO2.
The results of the effects on GHGs emissions of new final demands in the Amazon region and in the rest of Brazil are presented in the following figures. In the present stage of our work, only the direct and indirect effects are taken into account. The figures intend to emphasize the spillover effects of emissions resulting from productive activities in both regions of our input-output model.
Figure 12 – Effects on CO2 emissions of new final demands of sectors in the Amazon region
Source:Research data
Figure 13 – Effects on CO2 emissions of new final demands of sectors in the rest of Brazil
Source:Research data
As could be expected from the data presented in Table 9, in the Amazon region there is a clear prominence of the generation of CO2 by new final demands of the Cattle sector (number 3), which has a minimum spillover effect to the rest of Brazil. Given a one thousand reais (of 2004) impact in its final demand, the Amazon Cattle sector will cause the increase of the CO2 emissions of the Brazilian economy in approximately 66 thousand tons. 95% of this effect is direct, being mainly a consequence of the land-use
change in the Amazon region. The analysis of the CO2 emissions caused by new final demands of the Soybean sector (number 2) is quite similar. Moreover, the Food Products sector (number 16) also features a high effect in CO2 emissions. In this case, however, the indirect effect prevails. This fact can be expected by the fact that it is a sector which demands large quantities of inputs from the agricultural sectors.
In the rest of Brazil, the CO2 emissions caused by new demands of the Food Products sector (number 16) stands out by its large spillover effect to the Amazon region. The effects on CO2 emissions corresponding to new final demands of agricultural sectors are also outstanding. Although lower than that of the Amazon region, the effects on CO2 emissions corresponding to the Soybean sector (number 2) is the largest one, as Figure 11 presents: for one thousand reais impact in its final demand, the Soybean sector will cause an increase of near 10 thousand tons of CO2 emissions. The Sugarcane sector (number 1) also presents a high CO2 effect, as well its derived industry, the Ethanol Fuel sector (number 12).
This fact highlights the point that, even though the CO2 emissions resulting from the utilization of ethanol in passenger cars5 are not accounted in the Brazilian Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases and the ethanol distilleries are considered self-sufficient in energy terms (the utilization of sugarcane bagasse as fuel for generating electricity in the distilleries is widespread in Brazil), the final demand for ethanol fuel indeed causes significant emissions of CO2. However, an important aspect has to be considered: the sugarcane crops absorb CO2 during their growth, possibly including not only the emission from ethanol utilization, but also that due to land-use change. This is a point that can be indicated for the land-use change emissions in general and that claims for further studies. The Second Brazilian Inventory considerers the removal of GHGs emissions by crops in 2005, but does not consider its temporal dimension, what leads us to overlook the fact that the agricultural plants may remove the emissions caused by the preparation of their land. Thereby, further studies are needed in order to analyze how much the agricultural crops and cultivated grassland
5 According to the Ministry of Science and Technology (2010), in 2005, approximately 55% of the licensed passenger cars in Brazil were fueled exclusively by ethanol or could use this fuel in combination with gasoline (flex fuel technology).
can neutralize the land-use change emissions in Brazil.
Figure 14 – Effects on CH4 emissions of new final demands of sectors in the Amazon region
Source:Research data
Figure 15 – Effects on CH4 emissions of new final demands of sectors in the rest of Brazil
Source:Research data
As could be expected by the nature of CH4, the effects on these emissions caused by new final demands are especially high in the Cattle sector (number 3) of both considered regions. Particularly in the Amazon region, for one thousand reais impact in its final demand, the Cattle sector will cause an increase of near 0.46 thousand tons of
CH4 emissions. The Food Producs (number 16) and Gas, Water and Waste Services (number 19) – because of waste management activities – also present high CH4 emissions effects in Brazil as a whole.
Figure 16 – Effects on N2O emissions of new final demands of sectors in the Amazon region
Source:Research data
Figure 17 – Effects on N2O emissions of new final demands of sectors in the rest of Brazil
Source:Research data
Also in the case of effects of new final demands on N2O emissions, the Cattle sector (number 3) stands out in both regions of our input-output model. In the Amazon region,
given a one thousand reais (of 2004) impact in its final demand, the Cattle sector will cause the increase of the N2O emissions of the Brazilian economy in approximately 9.3 tons.
Figure 18 – Effects on CO2eq of new final demands of sectors in the Amazon region – GWP-100
Source:Research data
Figure 19 – Effects on CO2eq of new final demands of sectors in the Amazon region – GTP-100
Source:Research data
Figure 20 – Effects on CO2eq of new final demands of sectors in the rest of Brazil – GWP-100
Source:Research data
Figure 21 – Effects on CO2eq of new final demands of sectors in the rest of Brazil – GTP-100
Source:Research data
Figures 17 and 18 present results of the effects of new final demands on CO2eq emissions under GWP-100 and GTP-100 metrics for the Amazon region. In both cases, the effect corresponding to the Cattle sector (number 3) is largely outstanding – notably under the GWP metric, which, as mentioned before, gives a higher weight to the emissions of CH4.
Finally, these results for the rest of Brazil are presented in Figures 19 and 20. Under both metrics, the effects of agricultural activities stand out, especially that of the Soybean sector (number 2). However, under the GWP metric, the effect of the Cattle sector (number 3) almost equals that of soybean production.
Summarizing the previous results, one can note that, in the Amazon region, the sector with the highest output and value added effects is also the one with most outstanding GHGs emissions caused by new final demands: the Cattle sector, responsible for 3.4%
of product value and 12.4% of employment in the region. Other sectors that have an important role in regional dynamics are Public Administration, Other Services, Food Products and Sugarcane. The latter two also have potential to have strong role in the generation of GHGs. This indicates a possible tradeoff between development policies for the region and environmental preservation: some of the sectors with the greatest effects on the regional economy are also those that most affect the environment through GHGs emissions.