We use data from the most recent distribution of the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEPv26) to estimate the returns to education in Germany. The SOEP is a representative longitudinal survey of households and persons living in Germany. The data are provided by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and are available since 1984 (New Länder since 1990).
Our estimations refer to four cross-sections (1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005) of full-time working persons in dependent employment. The analysis is restricted to West-Germany.
TABLE 3 SUMMARY OF MODEL SPECIFICATIONS
Based on the challenges that the educational subsystems are currently facing and the corresponding research questions formulated in the introduction we chose to use several specifications to estimate the returns to human capital investments in Germany (see TABLE 3).
Our specifications of the education variables necessitate the use of dummy variables for the different types of qualifications instead of the years-of-schooling approach as in the standard Mincer model. Employing dummy variables is particularly important, since it allows the analysis of potential differences between formally equivalent qualifications within the system of initial vocational education and the returns to vocational qualifications conditional on secondary school type.
highest school qualification combined with highest post-school qualification
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Ordinary least squares estimation of the different specifications allows us to establish an association between specific qualifications and earnings. Though there may be some bias in the return estimates, this bias is assumed to be small.
TABLE 4 OLS ESTIMATION RESULTS OF MODEL 1
Model 1 is the base line specification. Here the returns to the highest post-school qualification are estimated relative to having no post-school qualification, independent of schooling (see TABLE 4). The coefficients are positive and highly statistically significant for all types of post-school qualifications. Moreover, the premiums relative to the base group are non-negligible, even in the case of initial vocational education. Unsurprisingly though, the return to education rises remarkably with the level of education. In 2005 the wage increase associated with initial vocational education relative to no post-school qualification was 21.7 per cent (coefficient .196)5, while the premium to academic education was more than three times higher (71.3 per cent, .538).
There are some fluctuations over time. Interestingly, there is a considerable drop in the returns to all qualifications between 1990 and 1995. Presumably, this decrease resulted from the economic downturn which began in 1993. Apparently, all qualification-specific wage premiums move pro-cyclically. After 1995 the returns seem to have recovered, in particular those associated with further vocational education. In 2005 the coefficient of the initial vocational education variable is even slightly above that in 1990. A tendency toward a higher (lower) rewarding of a specific qualification relative to the others cannot be observed though.
5 The per cent premiums are calculated by means of the following formula: %∆wage≈100*(eß-1).
1990 1995 2000 2005
highest level of post-school qualification independent of schooling
dependent variable: natural log of real gross hourly wage.
additional covariates: full-time work experience in years and its square, dummies for gender, nationality, economic sector, firm size.
OLS estimation; standard cross-sectional weights provided in the SOEP were employed; robust standard errors in parantheses;
significance levels: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
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TABLE 5 OLS ESTIMATION RESULTS OF MODEL 1a
TABLE 5 summarizes the estimation results for Model 1a. This specification conditions the vocationally oriented post-school qualifications on the type of secondary schooling completed.
The results presented indicate that the returns to initial and further vocational education are indeed heterogeneous conditional on schooling. The returns to post-school qualifications are particularly high for those who graduated high school (Abitur). Still, further vocational education seems to pay off for lower and intermediate secondary school leavers as well. Over time there is some downward movement in the returns to both initial and further vocational qualifications for all types of schooling. However, this drop is most pronounced for those with lower secondary schooling and initial vocational education. Between 1990 and 2005 the premium declines from 15.3 (.142) to 9.1 per cent (.087). Thus, the strong differences in the returns to initial vocational education conditional on schooling somewhat intensified, while there seems to be some convergence in the returns to further vocational qualifications conditional on secondary school type. Nonetheless, the coefficients of initial vocational education for high school leavers are well above those of further vocational education for lower secondary school leavers at all points in time.6 High school leavers may self-select into higher paying occupations, the demand for higher level school leavers may have increased in the area of vocational training or the job assignments have altered more strongly than those for lower level school leavers.
6 Note that initial vocational education and further vocational education usually are sequential, i.e. conditional on the completion if initial training individuals may pursue a further vocational track.
1990 1995 2000 2005
highest school qualification combined with highest level of post-school qualification
dependent variable: natural log of real gross hourly wage.
additional covariates: full-time work experience in years and its square, dummies for gender, nationality, economic sector, firm size.
OLS estimation; standard cross-sectional weights provided in the SOEP were employed; robust standard errors in parantheses;
significance levels: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
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The further differentiation of initial vocational qualifications, i.e. apprenticeships vs. full-time vocational schooling, delivers the following results (TABLE 6). The returns to initial vocational education seem to be in favor of full-time vocational schooling qualifications. However, between 2000 and 2005 the returns to dual apprenticeships and full-time vocational schooling converge somewhat. Overall, the returns to apprenticeships fluctuate more strongly than those to full-time vocational schooling. This may point to a stronger cyclical component of the returns to dual training relative to full-time vocational schooling. Overall, though the returns to full-time vocational schooling are higher than the returns to apprenticeships in all years, this may be less due to their rising absolute importance relative to apprenticeships than to their composition of occupations.
TABLE 6 OLS ESTIMATION RESULTS OF MODEL 2
Finally, the estimation results for Model 3 are summarized in TABLE 7. Here dual apprenticeships and further vocational qualifications are differentiated with respect to whether the training was taken in a craft-specific occupation or some other occupation. The identification of the craft population is based on Bizer et al. (2009). Due to data limitations, i.e. training sectors are not reported in the SOEP, the identification of these groups had to be approximated.
Accordingly, the craft-specific population refers to those persons who work in an occupation which is specific7 to the craft sector and in which they received their training. As a consequence, the population is small and not representative of all individuals who were trained in the craft sector (currently, the sector‟s share in apprentices is about 30 per cent), but may nonetheless
7 This means that persons are sampled only if their current occupation is exclusively trained in the craft sector.
1990 1995 2000 2005
additional covariates: full-time work experience in years and its square, dummies for gender, nationality, economic sector, firm size.
OLS estimation; standard cross-sectional weights provided in the SOEP were employed; robust standard errors in parantheses;
significance levels: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
dependent variable: natural log of real gross hourly wage.
Model 2
differentiation of initial vocational education qualifications
N R² academic education
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provide an indication of the average return to craft-specific qualifications. Given that the training sector industry & commerce has a current share in apprentices of about 60 per cent, thus almost making up the rest of the system‟s total apprentices, we may interpret the returns to „other‟ dual apprenticeships as those associated with training in industry & commerce. Sector-specific interpretations of the returns to further vocational education are not valid, since there is no such separation as in the case of dual apprenticeships. Therefore, the corresponding premiums are rather occupation-specific. Overall, given these restrictions, the results should be interpreted with caution.
TABLE 7 OLS ESTIMATION RESULTS OF MODEL 3
In fact, the comparatively low significance levels of the coefficients of craft-specific apprenticeships indicate that these may be less well identified than the others due to their comparatively low number of cases. Alternatively, the returns to craft-specific qualifications which also reflect the returns to craft-specific occupations may be even more prone to cyclical fluctuations than other types of apprenticeships, given their range of products and services.
Overall, the returns to craft-specific apprenticeships are below those associated with training in industry & commerce in all years of observation and the difference is highest in 2005.
As regards the returns to further vocational education, the results are less homogeneous. While in 2000 the return to craft-specific further vocational training is well below the return to other types of further vocational education relative to the reference group of no post-school qualification, the
1990 1995 2000 2005
OLS estimation; standard cross-sectional weights provided in the SOEP were employed; robust standard errors in parantheses;
significance levels: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
differentiation of dual apprenticeships according to training sector
academic education
dependent variable: natural log of real gross hourly wage.
additional covariates: full-time work experience in years and its square, dummies for gender, nationality, economic sector, firm size.
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ranking is reversed in 2005. Therefore, there is no general penalty to further vocational education in craft-specific occupations as is observable with respect to craft-specific apprenticeships.
5 CONCLUSION
At the outset of the paper several research questions were asked relating to recent developments of the dual system of apprenticeship training and other subsystems of the German system of vocational education, and how these may be reflected in the returns to the systems‟
corresponding qualifications. The following conclusions can be drawn:
Though level differences in the returns to different types of qualifications are important and considerable, there is no clear tendency toward rising or decreasing returns to any specific qualification (Model 1).
The type of secondary school leaving certificate clearly influences the returns to vocational training, i.e. the returns to initial and further vocational education are considerably higher for Abitur holders relative to lower and intermediate secondary school leavers (Model 1a).
The returns to the two types of initial vocational education seem to vary in favor of full-time vocational school qualifications. However, in 2005 the estimated coefficients differ only slightly.
Overall, the structural changes within the system of initial vocational education referred to at the beginning are less well reflected in the development of the returns associated with either type of initial training (Model 2).
The returns to crafts-specific dual apprenticeships lose some importance over the period of observation and are below those associated with training in industry & commerce. This comparatively weak performance cannot be observed for craft-specific further vocational qualifications. The persistent structural weakness of the crafts sector and the drop in the total number of apprentices over the last decades may thus be reflected in the returns to craft-specific apprenticeships, but less so in the returns to craft-specific further vocational education (Model 3).
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