4 Future fossil technologies
4.1.3 IGCC technology development perspectives
4.1.3.2 Potential role of IGCC in a future energy supply system
According to the World Energy Outlook 2006 of the International Energy Agency (IEA), globally fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy by 2030 and most probably also along the following two decades (IEA 2006). The global hard coal demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8%, whereas power generation accounts for 81% of this increase. For Europe this would imply an increase in the hard coal demand by 9% until 2030.
In parallel, the share of demand on coal for power generation to the total European coal consumption is anticipated to rise by some 10%. Coal prices are assumed to change proportionately less over time, but are anticipated to increase along the trend of oil and gas
prices, though not at the same rate. Starting from these general conditions, electricity generation from hard coal in Europe is expected to stay at current or even slightly elevated capacity level by 2030 and the following decades.
There is a broad consensus about the capability of IGCC technology for mitigating the environmental impact of power generation from fossil fuels: the high efficiency potential of approximately 52%, which is anticipated to be achieved within year 2025, is one precondition for saving primary energy and reducing CO2 emissions by substitution of less efficient fossil power plants. Via gasification a wide range of feedstock including biomass and low-grade opportunity fuels such as refinery residues or waste material can substitute valuable fossil fuels. IGCC applications will be increasingly limited not only to electricity generation, but will extend to CHP or even co- or poly-generation. Besides electricity generation IGCC technology can be applied for hydrogen production or the generation of synthetic fuels via Fischer-Tropsch process.
IGCC is seen as the most promising technology when removal of CO2 as the most important greenhouse gas would be required for power plants based on fossil fuels. Incentives for market penetration of CCS technology and thus IGCC power plants with CO2 capture could be triggered for instance by a carbon dioxide tax as presently established in Norway or by CO2 emissions trading. The latter is already established in the European emission trading being currently in the trading period from 2008 to 2812. Processes for CO2 separation from the pressurized fuel gas are based on state-of-the-art technology and lead to an efficiency decrease of typically 5 to 7% points (product CO2 at gaseous state), which constitutes a low efficiency loss when compared to other capture technologies as far as developed today (Hannemann et al. 2003). This is the reason why several power plant industries and research organisations worldwide are pushing this technology, also promoted by various national and international institutions such as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) or the European Commission (EC). Several technology road maps on clean coal technologies from different organizations worldwide (Australian Coal Association, Canadian Clean Power Association, Center for Coal Utilization, IEA Clean Coal Centre etc.) attach importance to IGCC for future electricity generation from hard coal.
Furthermore, IGCC could become an economic option for new power generation schemes depending on the natural gas price tendency and if emission standards become more stringent.
Currently, around 132 GWe of coal fired electricity generation capacity are installed in Europe, thereof some 1 GWe IGCC capacity. Starting from the above described positive frame conditions for market penetration of IGCC technology and according to IER modeling, it is expected that installed capacity of IGCC power plants in Europe will be considerably boosted within the next decades. In 2025 a capacity for coal fired electricity generation of 270 GWe is anticipated, of which 90 GWe should be IGCC power plants.
4.1.3.3 Specification of future technology configurations
Based on the described IGCC development perspectives, future scenarios on IGCC technology have been created taking into account several parameters influencing the frame conditions of its R&D. Table 4.9 gives an overview on these parameters and the tendency which was assumed for their influence on future IGCC technology development within the respective future scenarios.
Table 4.9 Influence of main parameters on the velocity of IGCC technology development outlined in three future scenarios. Upward green arrows show positive influence (driver). Downward red arrows show negative influence (inhibitor). Horizontal grey arrows: parameter does not influence the development.
Pessimistic
IGCC as efficient fossil fuelled technology based on cheap feedstock of hard coal / lignite has a competitive advantage against other electricity generation technologies
Large scale electricity generation
IGCC technology allows electricity generation in power plants of high capacity levels comparable to capacity levels of NGCC power plants Environmental
Performance
Compared to other technologies, coal based electricity generation features high emissions.
However compared to currently installed coal power plants, the environmental performance of IGCC technology is considerably improved.
Public acceptance
Public acceptance affects market penetration.
Hereby electricity prices, resource use and environmental performance are the main drivers Feedstock
availability
Currently coal features the most abundant proved recoverable fossil reserves and also additional resources
Feedstock prices In comparison to natural gas or oil, hard coal and
lignite feature lower price fluctuation and are less affected by political supply insecurities
Parameter with particular relevance for technology development Development of horizons 2025 and 2050, which have been derived from the scenario reflection, are presented in Table 4.10 through Table 4.21.
Table 4.10 Technical data of the hard coal-fuelled IGCC power plant without CO2 capture for future time horizons, pessimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 478 478
Net Capacity [MWe] 450 450
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 118 118
Gross Efficiency [%] 56.3 56.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3
Net Efficiency [%] 53 53.5
Table 4.11 Technical data of the hard coal-fuelled IGCC power plant without CO2 capture for future time horizons, realistic-optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 477 477
Net Capacity [MWe] 450 450
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 118 118
Gross Efficiency [%] 57.3 57.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3
Net Efficiency [%] 54 54.5
Table 4.12 Technical data of the hard coal-fuelled IGCC power plant without CO2 capture for future time horizons, very optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 477 477
Net Capacity [MWe] 450 450
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 118 118
Gross Efficiency [%] 58.3 58.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3
Net Efficiency [%] 55 55.5
Table 4.13 Technical data of the lignite-fuelled IGCC power plant without CO2 capture for future time horizons, pessimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 479 479
Net Capacity [MWe] 450 450
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 118 118
Gross Efficiency [%] 54.3 54.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3
Net Efficiency [%] 51 51.5
Table 4.14 Technical data of the lignite-fuelled IGCC power plant without CO2 capture for future time horizons, realistic-optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 479 479
Net Capacity [MWe] 450 450
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 118 118
Gross Efficiency [%] 55.3 557.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3
Net Efficiency [%] 52 52.5
Table 4.15 Technical data of the lignite-fuelled IGCC power plant without CO2 capture for future time horizons, very optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 478 478
Net Capacity [MWe] 450 450
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 118 118
Gross Efficiency [%] 56.3 56.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3
Net Efficiency [%] 53 53.5
Table 4.16 Technical data of the hard coal-fuelled IGCC power plant with CO2 capture for future time horizons, pessimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 509.1 508.2
Net Capacity [MWe] 425 425
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 111.6 111.6
Gross Efficiency [%] 56.3 56.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3 Efficiency Decrease by CO2 capture [%] 6.0 6.0
Net Efficiency [%] 47 47.5
Table 4.17 Technical data of the hard coal-fuelled IGCC power plant with CO2 capture for future time horizons, realistic optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 507 507
Net Capacity [MWe] 425 425
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 111.6 111.6
Gross Efficiency [%] 57.3 57.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3 Efficiency Decrease by CO2 capture [%] 6.0 6.0
Net Efficiency [%] 48 48.5
Table 4.18 Technical data of the hard coal-fuelled IGCC power plant with CO2 capture for future time horizons, very optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 506 506
Net Capacity [MWe] 425 425
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 111.6 111.6
Gross Efficiency [%] 58.3 58.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3 Efficiency Decrease by CO2 capture [%] 6.0 6.0
Net Efficiency [%] 49 49.5
Table 4.19 Technical data of the lignite-fuelled IGCC power plant with CO2 capture for future time horizons, pessimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 513 513
Net Capacity [MWe] 425 425
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 111.6 111.6
Gross Efficiency [%] 54.3 54.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3 Efficiency Decrease by CO2 capture [%] 6.0 6.0
Net Efficiency [%] 45 45.5
Table 4.20 Technical data of the lignite-fuelled IGCC power plant with CO2 capture for future time horizons, realistic optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 511 511
Net Capacity [MWe] 425 425
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 111.6 111.6
Gross Efficiency [%] 55.3 55.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3 Efficiency Decrease by CO2 capture [%] 6.0 6.0
Net Efficiency [%] 46 46.5
Table 4.21 Technical data of the lignite-fuelled IGCC power plant with CO2 capture for future time horizons, very optimistic scenario
2025 2050
Gross Capacity [MWe] 509 509
Net Capacity [MWe] 425 425
Technical Life Time [a] 35 35
Load [h/a] 7,500 7,500
Net Electricity Generation
(over the life time) [TWhe] 111.6 111.6
Gross Efficiency [%] 56.3 56.8
Efficiency Decrease by Own Consumption [%] 3.3 3.3 Efficiency Decrease by CO2 capture [%] 6.0 6.0
Net Efficiency [%] 47 47.5