Source: R. Drewett, et al., Employment Change in the Urban Svstem. London, London School of Economics and
~Glitical science, Department of Geography, Urban
Change in Britain: 1961-1971 Project, Working Project
No. 15, June, 1975, p.6.
I f o n e examines t h e s t r u c t u r e o f G r e a t ~ r i t a i n ' s e n t i r e u r b a n s y s t e m o v e r t i m e i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e r e h a s b e e n a pronounced f l a t t e n i n g o u t of t h e r a n k - s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n a s p o p u l a t i o n h a s s h i f t e d away from t h e l a r g e s t c i t i e s t o
medium-size c i t i e s a n d a s new u r b a n a r e a s w i t h h i g h r a t e s o f p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h have b e e n added t o t h e l o w e r r u n g s of t h e u r b a n h i e r a r c h y . These c h a n g e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e d e c e n t r a l -
i z a t i o n p r o c e s s e s w i t h i n SMLAs and MELAs, h a v e l e d B r i t i s h s c h o l a r s who have s t u d i e d t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s c l o s e l y t o p o s e
" t h e q u e s t i o n of t h e m e a n i n g f u l n e s s o f t h e c e n t r a l l y f o c u s - s e d d e f i n i t i o n o f u r b a n a r e a s a s a b a s i s f o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g u r b a n g r o w t h i n t h e f u t u r e ( D r e w e t t , e t a l . , 1 9 7 4 , p . 1 3 ) . "
Sweden
Data o n p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e i n u r b a n r e g i o n s o f Sweden between 1960 and 1970 a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 6. During t h i s p e r i o d t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n - - d e f i n e d t o b e p e o p l e l i v i n g i n p l a c e s w i t h 200 o r more i n h a b i t a n t s - - i n c r e a s e d f r o m 72.7 p e r c e n t t o 81.4 p e r c e n t . I n t h e t h r e e l a r g e s t u r b a n r e g i o n s - - Stockholm, GGteborg, and M a h o - - p o p u l a t i o n expanded much more r a p i d l y i n o u t l y i n g s a t e l l i t e s t h a n i n t h e more n a r - r o w l y d e f i n e d c e n t r a l u r b a n i z e d a r e a s . B u t t h e n t h i s was a l s o t h e c a s e f o r m o s t u r b a n r e g i o n s w i t h more t h a n 30,000 i n h a b i t a n t s . The r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n d e c r e a s e d by 2 6 . 5 p e r c e n t d u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 0 s ; a l m o s t a l l c o m m u n i t i e s e x p e r i e n c e d r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n d e c l i n e s , u s u a l l y c l o s e t o t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e . Thus, Sweden had a d e c e n t r a l i g a t o n of i t s u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n on two l e v e l s : f i r s t , from t h e c e n t r a l u r b a n i z e d a r e a s o f l a r g e - and m i d d l e - s i z e u r b a n r e g i o n s t o o u t e r s u b u r b s o r s a t e l l i t e s ; and s e c o n d , from t h e two l a r g e s t u r b a n r e g i o n s t o o t h e r u r b a n i z e d a r e a s of t h e c o u n t r y . The Stockholm
c e n t r a l u r b a n i z e d a r e a , i t w i l l b e n o t e d , had z e r o p o p u l a t i o n growth d u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 0 s .
I n t h e e a r l y 1 9 7 0 s t h e e n t i r e u r b a n r e g i o n s o f Stockholm and ~ o t e b o r g w e r e e x p e r i e n c i n g z e r o p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .
Table 6. Population Increase of Urban Regions
*
in the 1960sA l t h o u g h t h i s s u r p r i s e d many members of t h e p l a n n i n g community, i t s h o u l d h a v e b e e n a p p a r e n t from t r e n d s i n t h e 1 9 6 0 s t h a t a s m a l l c h a n g e i n p l a c e p r e f e r e n c e s c o u l d e a s i l y l e a d t o no g r o w t h i n S w e d e n ' s two l a r g e s t u r b a n r e g i o n s . Meanwhile,
many s m a l l u r b a n p l a c e s i n s o u t h e r n Sweden h a v e had r a p i d pop- u l a t i o n g r o w t h , e s p e c i a l l y where s c h o o l s a n d e a s y a c c e s s t o s p o r t s and r e c r e a t i o n a r e a v a i l a b l e . I n b o t h s o u t h e r n and c e n t r a l Sweden h i g h s t a n d a r d s o f p r i v a t e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n h a v e made i t q u i t e f e a s i b l e t o s e p a r a t e r e s i d e n c e s a n d work p l a c e s . D e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n a l s o h a s b e e n e n c o u r a g e d by a n i n c r e a s e i n e f f e c t i v e demand f o r s i n g l e - f a m i l y homes a s compared w i t h a p a r t m e n t d w e l l i n g s . I n t h e 1 9 6 0 s a m b i t i o u s p l a n s w e r e f o r m u l a t e d f o r b i g - a n d medium-sized c i t y r e g i o n s a l l o v e r t h e c o u n t r y ; ample s p a c e was p r o v i d e d f o r a p a r t m e n t s a n d i n d u s t r i a l u s e s . B e c a u s e l a n d n e a r t h e s e c i t i e s was o f t e n n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r s i n g l e - f a m i l y u n i t s many p e r s o n s moved t o s m a l l p l a c e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s t a n c e away. T r a d i t i o n a l l y a b o u t 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e p e o p l e i n Swedish c i t i e s h a v e l i v e d
i n a p a r t m e n t s . I n 1965 a p a r t m e n t s a c c o u n t e d f o r 7 1 p e r c e n t o f new d w e l l i n g u n i t s ; by 1972 t h i s f i g u r e was down t o 64 p e r c e n t . I n g e n e r a l , t h e n , "Journey-to-work d i s t a n c e s o f 40-50 k i l o m e t e r s a r e becoming r a t h e r common i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 7 0 s e v e n f o r medium-sized c i t i e s . The g r e e n wave i n Sweden i s a move b a c k t o t h e s m a l l u r b a n p l a c e s , where l a n d f o r homes i s a b u n d a n t a n d c h e a p , b u t s o f a r i t h a s n o t b e e n a move b a c k t o t h e c o u n t r y s i d e , w h i c h h e l d 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n 1880 b u t o n l y 19 p e r c e n t i n 1970 ( A l e x a n d e r s s o n and F a l k , 1 9 7 4 , p . 9 2 )
."
J a p a n
~ l t h o u g h t h i s p a p e r i s p r i m a r i l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h W e s t e r n u r b a n - i n d u s t r i a l n a t i o n s , i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o g i v e d u e c o n - s i d e r a t i o n t o J a p a n b e c a u s e i n many r e s p e c t s i t h a s e q u a l l e d - - and i n some c a s e s e v e n s u r p a s s e d - - t h e economic p e r f o r m a n c e o f some n a t i o n s i n t h i s c a t e g o r y .
The p a c e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n i n p o s t w a r J a p a n h a s b e e n q u i t e r e m a r k a b l e . I n 1950 o n l y a b o u t two i n e v e r y s i x J a p a n e s e l i v e d i n u r b a n a r e a s ; by 1970 t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i g u r e was f i v e i n e v e r y s i x . Glickman ( 1 9 7 5 ) h a s a n a l y z e d p o p u l a t i o n and employment g r o w t h i n t h e J a p a n e s e u r b a n s y s t e m
f o r t h e f o u r q u i n q u e n n i a from 1950 t o 1970. The s p a t i a l u n i t s of o b s e r v a t i o n u s e d w e r e R e g i o n a l Economic C l u s t e r s
( R E C s ) , which a r e a n a l o g o u s t o American S t a n d a r d ~ e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l A r e a s . T w o - t h i r d s o f t h e 1970 p o p u l a t i o n l i v e d i n 80 RECs a n d h a l f l i v e d i n e i g h t l a r g e S t a n d a r d C o n s o l i d a t e d A r e a s . The s y s t e m of c i t i e s t e n d e d t o c e n t r a l i z e b e t w e e n 1950 and 1970. T h e r e was r e l a t i v e l y r a p i d g r o w t h i n a few l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n c e n t e r s - - m a n y o f which had a n i m p o r t a n t m a n u f a c t u r -
i n g b a s e - - n e a r Tokyo a n d Osaka.
C e n t r a l c i t i e s a c c o u n t e d f o r 5 5 . 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l REC p o p u l a t i o n i n 1 9 5 0 , 5 8 . 5 p e r c e n t i n 1960, a n d 5 4 . 8 p e r c e n t i n 1970. Thus t h e r e was i n c r e a s i n g c e n t r a l i z a t i o n w i t h i n m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s b e t w e e n 1950 a n d 1 9 6 0 , b u t some d e c e n t r a l -
i z a t i o n i n t h e 1960-70 p e r i o d . No employment d a t a w e r e a v a i l - a b l e f o r 1950. However, between 1960 a n d 1970 t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f e m p l o y e e s l i v i n g i n c e n t r a l c i t i e s o f RECs d e c l i n e d f r o m 58.0 p e r c e n t t o 5 4 . 3 p e r c e n t , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t employment d e c e n t r a l i z e d a l o n g w i t h p o p u l a t i o n b u t n o t n e a r l y t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t was o b s e r v e d i n t h e c o u n t r i e s d i s c u s s e d p r e v i o u s l y i n t h i s s e c t i o n .
Among m a j o r m e t r o p o l i t a n c e n t e r s , T o k y o ' s p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e d e c l i n e d i n e a c h q u i n q u e n n i u m , from 23.7 p e r c e n t i n 1950-55 t o 1 3 . 7 p e r c e n t i n 1965-70. I n c o n t r a s t , ~ o k y o ' s o u t l y i n g s u b u r b a n a r e a s had i n c r e a s i n g g r o w t h r a t e s o v e r t h i s p e r i o d . The employment g r o w t h r a t e i n Tokyo f e l l from 25.4 p e r c e n t ' i n 1960-65 t o 1 3 . 4 p e r c e n t i n 1965-70, b u t t h e g r o w t h r a t e i n many o u t l y i n g a r e a s i n c r e a s e d . O s a k a ' s p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e d e c l i n e d from 20.4 p e r c e n t i n 1950-55 t o 1 4 . 8 p e r c e n t i n 1965-70. Growth r a t e s i n o u t l y i n g s u b u r b s i n - c r e a s e d o v e r t i m e b u t n o t a s m u c h ' a s i n t h o s e of Tokyo.
With r e s p e c t t o employment g r o w t h , Osaka went from a 31.2 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n 1960-65 t o a 1 4 . 4 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n 1965-70, though growth i n o u t l y i n g a r e a s i n c r e a s e d i n t h e l a t e 1960s.
I n terrns o f employment, t h e n , t h e r a p i d g r o w t h o f J a p a n e s e m a n u f a c t u r i n g r e g i o n s a p p e a r s t o b e s i m i l a r t o what happened i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e U n i t e d Kingdom
i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h i s c e n t u r y . I n terms o f p o p u l a t i o n ( a n d t o some e x t e n t employment) t h e c i t i e s t h a t grew t h e f a s t e s t d u r i n g t h e 1950-1970 e r a grew l e s s r a p i d l y d u r i n g 1965-70; c o n v e r s e l y , c i t i e s t h a t grew t h e s l o w e s t seemed t o grow less s l o w l y ( o r h a v e l e s s n e g a t i v e g r o w t h ) d u r i n g t h e
1965-70 p e r i o d . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t a t p r e s e n t d e c e n t r a l i
-
z a t i o n e f f e c t s may b e becoming more a p p a r e n t i n t h e J a p a n e s e u r b a n s y s t e m .
A
V a r i o u s t h e o r i e s have p r o v i d e d p a r t i a l i n s i g h t s i n t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a n d development of human s e t t l e m e n t s . None-- e i t h e r by i t s e l f o r i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h o t h e r t h e o r i e s - - h a s p r o v e n r e a l l y s a t i s f a c t o r y i n e x p l a i n i n g human s e t t l e m e n t p r o c e s s e s o r i n g i v i n g s p e c i f i c g u i d a n c e t o p u b l i c p o l i c y . I n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n i t was shown t h a t r e c e n t d e c e n t r a l - i z a t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n a n d economic a c t i v i t y h a s made t h e v e r y n o t i o n of a s y s t e m of n o d a l c i t i e s ( a n d t h e i r h i n t e r l a n d s ) q u e s t i o n a b l e . Although e v i d e n c e was p r e s e n t e d f o r o n l y f o u r c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e a r e i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n i s a w i d e s p r e a d phenomenon i n Western Europe ( A l e x a n d e r s s o n and F a l k , 1 9 7 4 ) .
The c h a n g i n g n a t u r e o f human s e t t l e m e n t s p a t t e r n s was a n t i c i p a t e d t e n y e a r s a g o i n a w e l l known a r t i c l e by
Friedmann a n d M i l l e r .
Looking a h e a d t o t h e n e x t g e n e r a t i o n , w e f o r e s e e a new s c a l e o f u r b a n l i v i n g t h a t w i l l e x t e n d f a r beyond ex- i s t i n g m e t r o p o l i t a n c o r e s a n d p e n e t r a t e d e e p l y i n t o t h e
p e r i p h e r y . R e l a t i o n s o f dominance a n d d e p e n d e n c y w i l l b e t r a n s c e n d e d . The o l d e r e s t a b l i s h e d c e n t e r s , t o - g e t h e r w i t h t h e i n t e r m e t r o p o l i t a n p e r i p h e r i e s t h a t e n v e l o p them, w i l l c o n s t i t u t e t h e new e c o l o g i c a l u n i t o f A m e r i c a ' s p o s t - i n d u s t r . i a 1 s o c i e t y t h a t w i l l r e p l a c e t r a d i t i o n a l c o n c e p t s of t h e c i t y and m e t r o p o l i s . T h i s b a s i c e l e m e n t o f t h e emerging s p a t i a l o r d e r w e s h a l l c a l l t h e " u r b a n f i e l d ( F r i e d m a n n a n d M i l l e r , 1 9 6 5 , p . 313)
.
"The u r b a n f i e l d , i n t h i s v i e w , r e p r e s e n t s a f u s i o n o f m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s and n o n r n e t r o p o l i t a n p e r i p h e r i e s i n t o a r e a s w i t h a minimum p o p u l a t i o n o f 300,000 p e r s o n s a n d e x t e n d i n g o u t w a r d f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y o n e h u n d r e d m i l e s , t h a t i s , a d r i v i n g d i s t a n c e of a b o u t two h o u r s .
S i m i l a r l y , B e r r y p o i n t s o u t t h a t :
G r a d i e n t s of d i s t a n c e a c c r e t i o n a r e now b e g i n n i n g t o r e p l a c e t h o s e o f c o r e - c e n t e r e d d i s t a n c e - d e c a y w i t h i n t h e l a r g e r m e g a l o p o l i t a n complexes a s p e r s o n s o f g r e a t e r w e a l t h a n d l e i s u r e s e e k homes and work among t h e more r e m o t e e n v i r o n m e n t s of h i l l s , w a t e r , a n d f o r e s t , w h i l e m o s t a s p i r e t o s u c h s e t t i n g s a s a n i d e a l . I n c o n s e q u e n c e c o r e - d o m i n a t e d c o n c e n t r a t i o n i s o n t h e wane; t h e m u l t i - n o d e m u l t i - c o n n e c t i o n
s y s t e m i s t h e r u l e . I t i s t h e s p o n t a n e o u s c r e a t i o n o f new c o m m u n i t i e s i n z o n e s of s u p e r i o r r e s i d e n t i a l a m e n i t y , t h e f l o w s t h a t r e s p o n d t o new t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a r t e r i e s , t h e waves e m a n a t i n g from g r o w t h c e n t e r s , t h e m u t u a l l y - r e p u l s i v e i n t e r a c t i o n s of a n t a g o n i s t i c s o c i a l g r o u p s , t h e r e v e r s e commuting r e s u l t i n g from i n c r e a s i n g s e g - r e g a t i o n a l o n g c i t y b o u n d a r y l i n e s a s employment d e - c e n t r a l i z e s , and a l l t h e o t h e r f a c e t s of s o c i a l dynamics t h a t t o d a y combine t o c o n s t i t u t e t o d a y ' s u r b a n s y s t e m s i n America.
I t i s t h e s e d y n a m i c s t h a t p r o d u c e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s of r e g i o n a l g r o w t h i n t h e 1 9 6 0 s , a n d c a l l f o r a d i f f e r e n t t h e o r y o f r e g i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t t h a n h a s t r a d i t i o n a l l y b e e n u s e d ( B e r r y , 1 9 7 3 , p . 4 0 ) .
B e r r y c o r r e c t l y stresses t h a t i f r e g i o n a l g r o w t h p r o c e s s e s a r e t o b e u n d e r s t o o d a d e q u a t e l y i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o h a v e a t t h e o u t s e t a p r e c i s e f u n c t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e n a t u r e o f u r b a n r e g i o n s . I n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h e h a s p r o p o s e d u s i n g a s e t o f 1 7 3 " d a i l y u r b a n s y s t e m s " which e x h a u s t t h e n a t i o n a l t e r r i t o r y . T h e s e r e g i o n s were d e f i n e d a c c o r d i n g t o
t h e f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i a :
A f t e r i d e n t i f y i n g economic c e n t e r s , i n t e r v e n i n g c o u n t i e s w e r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h e c e n t e r s . The a s s i g n m e n t w a s made p r i m a r i l y on t h e b a s i s o f t h e j o u r n e y t o work p a t t e r n a r o u n d t h e economic c e n t e r s . C o m p a r a t i v e t i m e and d i s - t a n c e o f t r a v e l t o t h e economic c e n t e r s , t h e i n t e r - c o n n e c t i o n b e t w e e n o u t l y i n g c o u n t i e s b e c a u s e o f t h e j o u r n e y t o work p a t t e r n , t h e r o a d n e t w o r k , a n d t h e l i n k a g e s o f c o u n t i e s by s u c h o t h e r economic t i e s a s t e l e p h o n e t r a f f i c , bank d e p o s i t s , t e l e v i s i o n v i e w i n g , n e w s p a p e r c i r c u l a t i o n , and t o p o g r a p h y w e r e a l s o u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e p l a c e m e n t o f p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t i e s i n t o t h e a p p r o p r i a t e economic area. I n p l a c e s where t h e com- m u t i n g p a t t e r n o f a d j a c e n t economic s e c t o r s o v e r l a p p e d , c o u n t i e s w e r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e economic area c o n t a i n i n g t h e c e n t e r w i t h which t h e r e w a s t h e g r e a t e s t commuting i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n . I n t h e case o f c i t i e s where t h e com- m u t i n g p a t t e r n o v e r l a p p e d t o a g r e a t d e g r e e , no a t t e m p t w a s made t o s e p a r a t e t h e two c i t i e s ; i n s t e a d , b o t h w e r e
i n c l u d e d i n t h e same economic a r e a ( B e r r y , 1 9 7 3 , p . 1 1 - 1 5 ) . The a r e a s t h u s d e f i n e d h a v e i n f a c t b e e n a d o p t e d f o r
p u r p o s e s o f r e g i o n a l a n a l y s i s by t h e Bureau o f Economic A n a l y s i s , U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of Commerce. I d e a l l y t h e y h a v e a h i g h d e g r e e o f " c l o s u r e " w i t h r e s p e c t t o employment a n d h o u s i n g m a r k e t s , a s w e l l a s t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t i e s . A p r o b l e m a r i s e s when t h e r e i s i n c r e a s i n g c r o s s - c o m m u t i n g b e t w e e n a r e a s ; t h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t i n t h e f u t u r e a d j a c e n t d a i l y u r b a n s y s t e m s s h o u l d b e merged a s t h e i r employment and h o u s i n g m a r k e t s c o a l e s c e . What m i g h t t h i s new p a t t e r n o f American m e g a r e g i o n s l o o k l i k e ? F i g u r e 3 shows o n e o f t h e most f r e q u e n t l y c i t e d p r o j e c t i o n s o f t h e American u r b a n
l a n d s c a p e a t t h e end of t h e t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y , t h a t made by P i c k a r d f o r t h e U.S. Commission on P o p u l a t i o n Growth and American F u t u r e .
I n W e s t e r n E u r o p e t h e h i s t o r y o f economic d e v e l o p m e n t h a s a l s o p r o d u c e d a m e g a r e g i o n s y s t e m r u n n i n g from t h e s o u t h of G r e a t B r i t a i n t o t h e n o r t h o f I t a l y . I n t h i s l a n d s c a p e t h e Rhine o c c u p i e s a c e n t r a l p o s i t i o n . Here a r e f o u n d m o s t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y and s e r v i c e s o f W e s t e r n E u r o p e . Around t h i s a x i s , t h e s o u t h o f I t a l y , S p a i n , t h e w e s t and s o u t h w e s t o f F r a n c e , I r e l a n d , S c o t l a n d ,
:ed on 2-child family projec Metropolitan Belt I .a. Atlantic Seabord 1.b. Lower Great Lakes California Region Florida Peninsula Gulf Coast East Central Texas- Red River Southern Piedmont North Georgia-South East Tennessee Puget Sound Twin Cities Region Colorado Piedmont Saint Louis Metropolitan Arizona Willamette Valley Central Oklahoma- Arkansas Valley Missouri-Kaw Valley North Alabama Blue Grass Southern Coastal Plain Salt Lake Valley Central Illinois Nashville Region East Tennessee Oahu Island Memphis El Pasoxiudad Juarez Source: U.S. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, Popuhtion Distribution and Policy, Sara Mills Mazie, ed.. vol. 5 of Commission research reports (Washington, D.C. : U. S. Government Rinting Office, 1972), p. 143. Figure 3. Projected Megaregions in the Year 2000.
and the north of Scandinavia constitute a relatively under- developed and lightly-populated periphery. It is noteworthy that the Netherlands, Belgium and West Germany are situated almost entirely within the industrial corridor. England is linked to it by London and Italy by the industrial centers of the north, though not without an alpine impediment. On the other hand, the Paris region is not well linked to the ensemble. The second most important French region--Rhone- Alps--is somewhat better situated in this regard (~glggation,
1974).
Obviously the megaregions of Europe, the United States and Japan are not political units. It also is misleading to regard them as mere configurations of population densities.
Within megaregions there are of course very densely-settled areas, but these by no means necessarily typify the regions shown, for example, on Figure 3. Even within the Atlantic Seaboard Metropolitan Belt (megalopolis) the amount of built- up area accounts for only six per cent of the total area.
Thus, the megaregion is not so much a physical entity as a pattern of localizations and connecting flows of people,
information, goods, and services.
In sum then, the nineteenth-century nodal city has given way, in varying degree, to the metropolitan area, the urban field, and the megaregion. Yet spatial-temporal de- velopment processes are still very imperfectly understood.
This in itself explains why even though nearly all of the countries considered feel a need for some form of human settlements policy, few are able to elucidate clearly what the problems really are.
A Framework for the Analysis of Human Settlement Systems
Any major effort to gain better understanding of spatial- temporal development processes should have at the outset a framework of functional economic areas. It should reflect the
f a c t t h a t t h e s e p r o c e s s e s a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n c h a r a c t e r . I t a l s o s h o u l d b e f l e x i b l e enough t o t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n d e g r e e o f d e v e l o p m e n t among n a t i o n a l
( a n d e v e n s u b - n a t i o n a l ) e c o n o m i e s a s w e l l a s d i f f e r e n c e s i n d e g r e e o f n a t i o n a l economic p l a n n i n g .
Such a s t u d y i s now b e i n g u n d e r t a k e n w i t h i n t h e Urban and R e g i o n a l P r o j e c t o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e U n i v e r - s i t y o f R e a d i n g , E n g l a n d . The r e s e a r c h c o v e r s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , C a n a d a , J a p a n , a n d m o s t o f W e s t e r n a n d E a s t e r n E u r o p e . The b a s i c u n i t s o f a n a l y s i s are u r b a n r e g i o n s , w h i c h e s s e n t i a l l y a r e f u n c t i o n a l l a b o r m a r k e t a r e a s c o r - r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e d a i l y u r b a n s y s t e m s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n Economic Labour A r e a s o f G r e a t B r i t a i n
( H a l l , Hansen, a n d S w a i n , 1 9 7 5 a , 1 9 7 5 b ) .
The i n i t i a l p h a s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s a t t e m p t i n g t o d e f i n e t h e h i n t e r l a n d s o f u r b a n c o r e a r e a s a n d t o d e l i n e a t e t h e b o u n d a r i e s o f f u n c t i o n a l u r b a n a r e a s . However, a s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , i t may n o t b e p o s s i b l e t o make c o r e - h i n t e r l a n d
d i s t i n c t i o n s when d e a l i n g w i t h u r b a n f i e l d s a n d m e g a r e g i o n s , t h o u g h i n t h e l a t t e r it may b e p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y m u l t i - p l e c o r e s , e . g . i n t h e Ruhr a n d i n t h e A t l a n t i c S e a b o a r d M e t r o p o l i t a n B e l t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
G i v e n t h i s c o n t e x t it s h o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o t e s t t h e t h e o r y t h a t , a t l e a s t i n some s e t t i n g s , i n n o v a t i o n a n d e c o - nomic g r o w t h h a v e a t w o - f o l d s p a t i a l - t e m p o r a l c h a r a c t e r , t h a t i s , t h e y t r i c k l e down t h r o u g h t h e u r b a n h i e r a r c h y and a l s o s p r e a d f r o m u r b a n c o r e s t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e h i n t e r l a n d s . But t h e h i e r a r c h y may i n c l u d e u r b a n f i e l d s , m e g a r e g i o n c o r e s a n d p e r h a p s e v e n m e g a r e g i o n s r a t h e r t h a n j u s t t h e t r a d i t i o n a l l y d e f i n e d c i t i e s o r m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s .
I t a l s o s h o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o t e s t t h e t h e o r y t h a t u r b a n s y s t e m d e v e l o p m e n t i s a f u n c t i o n o f c o n t a c t s y s t e m s a n d i n - f o r m a t i o n flows--which f r e q u e n t l y must b e viewed i n a n i n t e r - n a t i o n a l s e t t i n g - - a n d t h a t economic g r o w t h a n d i n n o v a t i o n
d i f f u s i o n p a t t e r n s may n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e p r e d i c t i o n s o f t h e t h e o r y o f h i e r a r c h i c a l f i l t e r i n g and h i n t e r l a n d s p r e a d . Thus, f o r a n a l y t i c p u r p o s e s mappings of i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w s c a n b e s u p e r i m p o s e d on u r b a n r e g i o n mappings.
Throughout most o f t h i s p a p e r p r i m a r y a t t e n t i o n h a s been g i v e n t o growth p r o c e s s e s b u t it a l s o was p o i n t e d o u t t h a t many e n t i r e u r b a n r e g i o n s a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g - - a n d s t i l l o t h e r s w i l l e x p e r i e n c e - - p o p u l a t i o n l o s s a s n a t i o n a l
b i r t h r a t e s d e c l i n e . I t i s n o t l i k e l y t h a t t h e p r o c e s s o f g r o w t h and d e c l i n e a r e s y m m e t r i c a l b u t a s y e t t h e r e i s n o t much s y s t e m a t i c knowledge a b o u t t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o b l e m s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h a t may accompany p o p u l a t i o n s t a b i l i t y o r d e c l i n e . Even i f a n a t i o n r e a c h e d a no-growth s i t u a t i o n
t h e s e l e c t i v i t y o f m i g r a t i o n f l o w s would p r o d u c e d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n a l c o n s e q u e n c e s . C l e a r l y any m e a n i n g f u l s y s t e m s
a p p r o a c h t o human s e t t l e m e n t s must b e i n f o r m e d by knowledge a b o u t t h e n a t u r e and s i g n i f i c a n c e o f human m i g r a t i o n . T h i s i m p o r t a n t i s s u e h a s n o t b e e n d e a l t w i t h i n d e t a i l h e r e be- c a u s e i t i s b e i n g examined w i t h i n t h e Urban and R e g i o n a l P r o j e c t i n a m a j o r c l o s e l y - l i n k e d r e s e a r c h e f f o r t o n m i - g r a t i o n and s e t t l e m e n t .
F i n a l l y , problems common t o " n a t u r a l n r e g i o n s c u t by p o l i t i c a l b o u n d a r i e s - - d i s p a r i t i e s i n growth r a t e s , c u s t o m s b a r r i e r s , l i m i t a t i o n s on l a b o r m o b i l i t y , l a c k o f c o h e r e n c e i n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n p o l i c y , e t c . - - h a v e i n t h e p a s t b e e n s l i g h t e d b e c a u s e o f economic and p o l i t i c a l n a t i o n a l i s m . Today t h e development of t h e Common Market i s d r a w i n g a t t e n t i o n t o t h e s e i s s u e s ; and i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s
t h e r e h a s b e e n s h a r p l y - i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t r e c e n t l y i n t h e s p e c i a l p r o b l e m s o f r e g i o n s a l o n g t h e f r o n t i e r w i t h Mexico.
H o p e f u l l y , t h e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t j u s t o u t l i n e d w i l l b e a b l e t o c o n t r i b u t e n o t o n l y t o a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e p r o b l e m s o f b o r d e r r e g i o n s , b u t a l s o t o t h e i r r e s o l u t i o n t o t h e
b e n e f i t o f a l l o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n s c o n c e r n e d .
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