A comparison of the differences between the “current legislation” and the “further measures”
cases reveals the potential for further emission reductions that could be attained through technical measures on top of the requirements laid down in the current legislations (Table 4.4). For the EU countries, approximately 20 percent of the total reduction potential is identified in sectors for which the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols specify binding emission limit values, and thus could - at least in principle - be addressed by more stringent emission limit values in revised protocols. In the non-EU countries, about 40 percent of the theoretical potential is linked to these sectors, essentially because most of these countries have not yet ratified the protocols. An enhanced ratification could harness a substantial fraction of these reduction potential (Table 4.4).
In the EU, approx. 55 percent of the potential further emission reductions emerge for small combustion sources (wood and coal stoves), for which the protocols do not prescribe emission limit values. Another 20 percent comes from industrial production processes, two thirds of it from sources which are not subject to the Heavy Metals Protocol. For the non-EU countries, each of these two sectors offer about one third of the potential total emission reductions.
Table 4.4: Technical potentials for further reductions of primary PM2.5 emissions (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
EU-15+2 EU-10 Non-EU
Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
0 250 500 750 1000
Included Not included Included Not included Included Not included
EU-17 EU-10 Non-EU
1: Power plants 2: Non-industrial combustion 3: Industrial combustion 4: Industrial processes 7: Road transport 8: Other mobile sources 5+6+9+10: Others
Figure 4.4: Technical potentials for further reductions of PM2.5 in 2020 (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
0 400 800 1200 1600
EU-17 EU-10 Non-EU
Residual emissions (MTFR) 2020 Further measures in non-protocol sectors 2020 Further measures in protocol sectors 2020 CLE measures 2000-2020
Figure 4.5: Potentials for further PM2.5 emission reductions through existing and potential new protocol agreements
5 Results for PM10
Similar results and conclusions emerge for PM10. The following paragraphs provide tables and graphs for PM10 emissions.
Table 5.1: PM10 emissions in the EU15+2, (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
2000 2020 CLE 2020 MTFR
Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Included Not included Included Not included Included Not included
2000 2020 CLE 2020 MTFR
1: Power plants 2: Non-industrial combustion 3: Industrial combustion 4: Industrial processes 7: Road transport 8: Other mobile sources 5+6+9+10: Others
Figure 5.1: PM10 emissions in the EU15+2 (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
Table 5.2: PM10 emissions in the EU10 (New Member States) (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
2000 2020 CLE 2020 MTFR
Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Included Not included Included Not included Included Not included
2000 2020 CLE 2020 MTFR
1: Power plants 2: Non-industrial combustion 3: Industrial combustion 4: Industrial processes 7: Road transport 8: Other mobile sources 5+6+9+10: Others
Figure 5.2: PM10 emissions in the EU10 (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
Table 5.3: PM10 emissions in the non-EU countries (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
2000 2020 CLE 2020 MTFR
Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Total 1: Energy
industries 387.0 32.4 419.4 321.2 4.3 325.5 38.7 0.5 39.2 2:
Non-industrial
combustion 0.0 941.5 941.5 0.0 877.5 877.5 0.0 155.4 155.4 3: Combustion
in industry 221.4 28.6 250.1 252.5 29.9 282.4 50.8 1.6 52.4 4: Production
processes 475.9 268.8 744.7 309.7 255.7 565.3 21.4 72.9 94.3 5: Extraction
& distribution 0.0 63.4 63.4 0.0 43.5 43.5 0.0 43.5 43.5 6: Solvent use 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7: Road
transport 117.4 0.0 117.4 157.1 0.0 157.1 157.1 0.0 157.1 8: Other
mobile sources 95.7 0.0 95.7 106.4 0.0 106.4 106.4 0.0 106.4 9: Waste 0.0 62.5 62.5 0.0 61.5 61.5 0.0 42.9 42.9 10: Agriculture 0.0 242.2 242.2 0.0 264.1 264.1 0.0 99.7 99.7 Sum 1297.4 1639.5 2936.9 1146.8 1536.5 2683.3 374.3 416.5 790.8
0 1000 2000 3000
Included Not included Included Not included Included Not included
2000 2020 CLE 2020 MTFR
1: Power plants 2: Non-industrial combustion 3: Industrial combustion 4: Industrial processes 7: Road transport 8: Other mobile sources 5+6+9+10: Others
Figure 5.3: PM10 emissions in the non-EU countries (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
Table 5.4: Technical potentials for further emission reductions (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
EU-15+2 EU-10 Non-EU
Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Total Covered Not covered
Included Not included Included Not included Included Not included
EU-15+2 EU-10 Non-EU
2: Non-industrial combustion 2: Non-industrial combustion 3: Industrial combustion 4: Industrial processes 7: Road transport 5+6+9+10: Others
Figure 5.4: Technical potentials for further reductions of PM10 in 2020 (in kt), distinguishing emissions from sources that are covered by the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols and emissions from other sources.
6 Discussion and conclusions
The analysis of three emission control cases (i.e., the situation in the year 2000, the current legislation case for 2020, and a case with further control measures) leads to the following conclusions:
• Throughout Europe, primary emissions of PM are expected to decline in the future. In the European Union stringent national and community legislation on emission controls will lead to a 45 percent reduction of primary PM2.5 emissions between 2000 and 2020, and to a 40 percent reduction of primary PM10 emissions. However, in the non-EU countries primary PM emissions are expected to only decline by 8-9 percent, because of the absence of stricter emission control regulations.
• Tightening of the current emission limit values of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols would have a relatively small effect on total PM emissions in 2020, especially if the protocols would not receive ratifications from additional Parties. In the EU-25, PM2.5 emissions would decline in 2020 at maximum by an additional 7 percent if the most advanced technical measures were implemented.
• Due to important uncertainties in the quantification of the technical potential for further reductions of PM emissions from mobile sources (e.g., through diesel particle filters) this study has not quantified the potential further scope from this sector. However, it should be mentioned that for the current legislation case without further measures the contribution of diesel exhaust emissions from light duty diesel vehicles to total PM2.5 is estimated in the EU-25 at approx. four percent in 2020, and from heavy duty vehicles at 1.2 percent.
• A significantly larger reduction potential could be harvested through ratification and subsequent implementation of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols by additional Parties. This could reduce PM2.5 emissions in the non-EU countries by up to 25 percent in 2020 compared to the current legislation situation.
• While the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols contain obligations for PM emissions from certain emission sources, in 2020 the majority of PM emissions is expected to originate from sources for which these protocols do not specify emission limit values. For the EU-25, about 80 percent of the identified technical potential for further PM reductions emerges from sources that are not covered in the Protocols. In the non-EU countries, more than 60 percent of the technical reduction potential relates to these sources.
• Approximately two thirds of this technical reduction potential from the non-protocol sectors emerge from small non-industrial combustion sources, especially wood and coal stoves. This potential could be realized through advanced technical end-of-pipe measures that are commercially available. However, especially in the new EU Member States and the non-EU countries, the continued use of solid fuels for home heating is linked to the poor social and economic conditions of households, and it is questionable to what extent such advanced technical emission control devices could be realistically applied under such conditions. Obviously, there is a significant and possibly rather cost-effective potential for non-technical measures to phase out the use of solid fuels in
small stoves and replace them by other forms of energy, which however has not been explored in this study.
• The analysis presented in this report is restricted to the implications of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols on primary emissions of particulate matter. As pointed out elsewhere, a significant fraction of particulate matter in ambient air consists of secondary aerosols, which are formed in the atmosphere from precursor emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). Especially the Gothenburg Protocol with its emission ceilings for these pollutants will lead to a significant reduction of such secondary aerosols, and thus to further improvements in ambient PM concentrations in addition to those that result from the expected reductions of primary PM emissions that are identified in this paper.
• Furthermore, it should be mentioned that given reductions of primary PM emissions do not necessarily lead to proportional changes in population exposure, which ultimately determines actual health impacts. There is clear evidence that emissions from low level sources, especially in urban areas, such as domestic combustion and transport, make a larger contribution to population exposure to PM than emissions released from high stacks.
• Due to various uncertainties in these calculations, the exact quantitative estimates presented in this study need to be interpreted with care. Important uncertainties relate to the levels of economic activities projected for 2020, the expected composition of fuel use, emission inventories, especially for small combustion sources and for non-combustion emissions of coarse particulate matter. However, the main conclusions about the relative reduction potentials from different protocol options are considered robust.
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