Currently, 4.5% of the total agricultural area is managed according to organic standards, whereof approximately 80% is used for grassland and 14% for cereals (DEBIO, 2016). As for agriculture sector in general, dairy farming is also the backbone in the organic sector in Norway, and the total organic milk production increased from 17 ML in 2003 to 55 ML per year in 2013 (Table 1). This is still not more than 3.8% of the total dairy milk production, which is lower than countries like Sweden (13%;
Jordbruksverket, 2016) and Denmark (9%; Danish Agriculture and Food Council, 2016) but higher than in Finland (2%; Pro Luomu, 2016).
Challenges
The forage production costs in Norway have increased considerably during the last decade (Thuen et al., 2015). Today the costs per NEL are similar to, or higher, than the market price of concentrates on many farms. The fixed costs, maintenance, machine and transport costs and depreciation, account for more than 60% of the total costs. Fertilizer is the major variable cost, with seed and silage preservation additives coming next.
High investment costs in barns associated with increased herd size and the high forage costs relative to the price of concentrate are important drivers for the increase in milk yield per cow during the last decade. A similar trend has also been seen in sheep farming. The consequence of an increased proportion of concentrates in the diet, higher dietary inclusion of imported feedstuffs such as soya and less use of pasture, is that the legitimacy of Norwegian agriculture is at stake. Continued increase in dairy milk yield
per cow will reduce the grassland area needed to fill the quota, as well as increasing the import of protein feed, reducing beef production from dairy enterprises and increasing beef import, and thus it will reduce food self-sufficiency (Aas et al., 2014). Intensification of animal production also raises concerns for animal welfare as well as the delivery of ecosystem services related to grazing, especially on semi-natural pasture and rangelands. Although the rather extensive, but still labour intensive, grassland farming and grazing animals are crucial for the tourist industry in mountain areas and on the western coast and in fjord landscapes, there is no common agreement as to who should pay for such benefits. Furthermore, especially on the western coast, the offshore oil and marine industries offer payments and wages that make farming, even with high subsidies and support, barely interesting from an economic point of view.
The structural changes, with increasing herd size and an increasing proportion of rented land, imposes other challenges as well. Large parts of the ruminant livestock and grassland production are located in areas where field sizes are relatively small and the distance between fields is often long. The transport distances of harvested forage from the fields to the barn and the return of manure to the fields impose considerable costs (Bergslid and Solemdal, 2014). There are examples of farmers that need to drive distances corresponding to Trondheim-Rome each year with their tractor and trailer if their slurry is to be evenly distributed on the area they manage. In practice, the fields closest to the farm receive high loads of manure whereas areas further away receive little or nothing, a situation that is of environmental concern. There are also other environmental concerns related to manure management and utilization.
The springs are cold and the growing season short, and the nitrogen mineralization from manure and soil organic matter is far from perfectly synchronized with the demand of the grass crop. The window for application under optimal weather conditions is also very short in many regions. Furthermore, the small-scaled structure and long distances between farms do not allow for cost-efficient investments in biogas plants, which is often an option for better utilization of manure in other European countries.
There is of course also a discussion as to how changes in climatic conditions may challenge grassland yields and yield stability in Norway. Technologies, farm structure, ruminant diets and production systems change at a higher rate than do changes in climate and the natural and managed evolution of plant resources. It is consequently a very challenging exercise to outline what one should prepare for and how to do it. Winter-kill of grass and clover crops has always been a challenge for Norwegian grassland farmers, and there is little reason to believe that shorter and warmer, but nonetheless dark and variable, winters will in future not impose severe stress to perennial crops. In line with this, several research projects and programmes have been conducted during the last fifteen years to investigate forage crop reactions (and their genetic basis) to changed autumn and winter temperatures and precipitation patterns. For an example of this work, see for instance the recent doctoral dissertation of Dalmannsdóttir (2015).
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Mats Höglind and Steffen Adler for their suggestions and feedback, Arne Oddvar Skjevåg for the algorithm for calculating the photoperiod length in Figure 1 and Hugh Riley for improving the English.
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