99
K
EYNOTEL
ECTURER
EMEMBERINGF
REDRIKW
ULFF— B
ALTICS
EA ECOSYSTEM MODELLER,
INSTITUTION LEADER AND CREATOR OF THEB
ALTICS
EA EUTROPHICATION MANAGEMENT DECISIONSUPPORT SYSTEM Elmgren, R.
Stockholm University, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Sweden
Fredrik Wulff (1942-2016) was a pioneer in marine systems ecology, and created the model-based decision support system underpinning the decisions on country-specific nutrient reduction quotas in the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan in 2007 and 2013.
Fredrik grew up in Kalmar, on the coast of the Baltic proper, where he developed an interest in Nature and the Sea. He studied zoology and botany at Stockholm University and began doctoral studies on rock pool ecosystems at Stockholm University’s Baltic Sea field station, the Askö Laboratory. When his advisor, Bengt-Owe Jansson, received a ten-year grant to study Baltic ecosystems, with the long-term goal of creating mathematical models for managing the Baltic Sea environment, Fredrik was made assistant project leader and sent to study ecosystem modelling with the famous systems ecologist Howard T. Odum at the University of North Carolina. On return, Fredrik was a major contributor to the success of the project, got his doctoral degree in 1978, and became a docent the year after.
In the 1980-ies, Fredrik gained international respect, and spent a fruitful half a year with John Field in Cape Town. His joint papers with oceanographer Anders Stigebrandt in Gothenburg made a break-through in ecosystem analysis of the Baltic Sea. In 1991-2002 Fredrik was head of Stockholm University’s Department of Systems Ecology. He received major grants for studies of large-scale ecological processes in the Baltic Sea, and assembled a large data base to support the modelling. He published books on marine ecosystem analysis and Baltic Sea ecology and became Professor of Marine Systems Ecology in 1996. In 1998 he received the Great Prize of The Åland Foundation for the Future of the Baltic Sea.
From 1999 Fredrik led the project “Marine research on Eutrophication”, MARE, funded by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research. Through international collaboration, MARE created a series of linked models that describe how different actions to mitigate eutrophication influence the Baltic Sea’s ecology and fish stocks, and at what cost. When the Helsinki Commission used this decision support system for its Baltic Sea Action Plan, this was the crowning of 37 years of unrelenting, inspired work by Fredrik. After the MARE project, the research has continued and expanded at the Baltic Nest Institute, now part of Stockholm University’s Baltic Sea Centre. After retiring in 2009, Fredrik continued to act as a trusted advisor. His influence on Baltic Sea environmental management is unequalled.
100
K
EYNOTEL
ECTUREE
PISTEMIC MOBILITIES,
SEALEVEL RISE AND THE CONTESTATION OF THE OCEAN-
LAND BORDERLINEHornidge, A.-K.
University of Bremen & Leibniz-Center for Tropical Marine Ecology, Germany
Today, approximately half of the world’s population lives within 60 km of the sea, and three-quarters of all large cities are located along coasts (UNEP 2015). People migrate from peripheral areas to national and regional centers – for work, education and always in the hope of a ‘better future’. As people travel, so do lifestyles, particular stocks of knowledge, goods (computer chips, textiles, and foodways). Thus cross-border geographic mobilities, often encouraged by the search for social upward mobility across socio-cultural boundaries, comes with particular epistemic mobilities, travelling ideas and concepts of development, that make coastal regions not only the melting pots of ideas, inspiration and creativity, but, further exacerbated by population density, risk-prone to environmental, health and social disasters with the borderline between ocean and land being renegotiated by the effects of sealevel rise.
This keynote address the patterns of cross-border epistemic mobilities in and between the cities of Singapore, Jakarta and Manila (Southeast Asia), in the context of regional sea level change and growing flood risks. It looks at (a) the policies and institutional infrastructures of risk adaptation (dispositifs, e.g. the formulation and
institutionalisation of flood management plans) and (b) the related practices in the form of solutions and attempts of standardisation put forth by donor and civil society organisations (e.g. the construction of seawalls). It is hypothesised that epistemic mobilities and thus the globally communicated and locally heard disaster mitigation and risk adaptation plans and practices, are key to assessing the local processes of renegotiating the borderline between ocean and land through the employment of policies and practices of risk mitigation and adaptation. The contribution will be based on qualitative ethnographic data collected in 2016 in the three study sites on policies and practices of mitigating and adapting to sealevel rise.
101
P
LENARYL
ECTUREU
SING EXTENDED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC SCENARIOS TO INVESTIGATE DRIVERS AND PRESSURES ON THEB
ALTICS
EA UP TO2100
Zandersen, M.1, Hyytiainen, K.2, Meier, H.E.M.3, Tomzcak, M.,4, Bauer, B.4, Haapasaari, P.2, Olesen, J.E.1, Gustafsson, B.4, Kosenius, A.K.2, Refsgaard, J.C.5,
Fridell, E.6, Pihlainen, S.2, and Letissier, M.D.A.7
1Aarhus University, Denmark, 2University of Helsinki, Finland, 3Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany, 4Stockholm University, Sweden,
5Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Denmark, 6Chalmers, Sweden,
7Future Earth, Sweden
The Baltic Sea is an ecologically vulnerable aquatic ecosystem that is greatly influenced by human activities and the climatic system: i) diffuse and point nutrient loads from agriculture, industry and waste water treatment plants have particularly over the past 60 years caused strong eutrophication and large areas of dead sea bottoms in the Baltic Sea, threatening a range of important ecosystem services; and ii) perhaps increasing runoff integrated over the entire Baltic Sea catchment area in future climate, which in turn accelerates nutrient loads to the sea, while the resilience of the marine ecosystem is weakened due to higher surface water temperatures.
Scenarios that combine socio-economic and climate pathways, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) can be powerful tools to help evaluate the challenges and uncertainties in ecosystem management and the scale of human contributions to regional environmental change under different plausible futures. Such scenarios can be used as input to integrated assessments to investigate how changes in nutrient emissions and subsequent responses in the ecosystem, combined with uncertainty about both future climate impacts and societal developments, may develop and what actions would be needed to obtain good environmental conditions.
We present a collaborative and interdisciplinary effort to translate global climate and socioeconomic futures into regional drivers and pressures that drive pollution in the Baltic Sea. We propose sectoral narratives of the sustainability pathway (SSP1), the Middle of the Road (SSP2), Regional Rivalry (SSP3) and Fossil Fueled Development (SSP5) along with quantifications of the drivers impacting nutrient loads and the different levels of pressures in terms of total nitrogen and phosphorous loading up to 2100. We combine the SSP/RCP matrix structure with the analytical frame of DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts and Responses).
Results indicate a plausible range of different adaptation and mitigation responses needed under the different SSPs in order to ensure a good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, with and without climate change, up to 2100. The approach exemplifies the potential for applying scenario analysis stemming from climate research to regional environmental challenges, which are impacted by climate change.
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P
LENARYL
ECTUREH
OW THEB
ALTICS
EA OCEANOGRAPHY SETS THE SCENE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THEEU MSFD?
Myrberg, K.1,2, Korpinen, S.1, Uusitalo, L.1
1Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre, Helsinki, Finland, 2Department of Natural Sciences, Klaipeda University, Lithuania.
The EU has set an ambitious objective of reaching good environmental status (GES) of marine waters by 2020. This objective was laid down in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, but the challenge of MSFD is also in ensuring comparable assessment results in the four European seas and their defined sub-regions. While the grand objective of the MSFD is to have a pan-European overview of the state of the marine environment, this cannot be reached without careful consideration of the specific conditions of each of the regions – separately and jointly. These marine regions have major differences in hydrological, oceanographic and biogeographic features. While commonly
acknowledged, such differences or the natural variability of the above-mentioned features have not, until now, been summarized in the MSFD context. In this paper, we focus on oceanographic features of the Baltic Sea, one of the marine regions as defined under the MSFD. Using the indicative parameter lists of the MSFD Annex III, we describe the variability and dynamics of several oceanographic features and make comparisons to the other European seas. For instance, GES cannot be discussed in the Baltic context without understanding that the region will be under heavily eutrophicated conditions for the next decades and, although anthropogenic, it is heavily affected by physical factors. Such physical factors – e.g. stratification, water residence time, upwelling – do not have same meaning in the other marine regions. Our purpose in this study is to show how these oceanographic driving forces need to be placed in to the context of the MSFD implementation.
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ECTUREM
ICROPLASTICS:
POLLUTANT WITH UNKNOWN TRANSPORT PROPERTIES Chubarenko, I.1, Poterukhina, I.1, Bagaeva, M.1, Khatmullina, L.1, Isachenko, I.1,and Nizhnikovskaya, O.1
1P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Atlantic Branch
Microplastics particles (MPs, conventionally, 1 - 5 mm) are found nowadays in all the marine environments, from pole to pole, from water surface to deep bottom sediments.
They have various densities, shapes and sizes, and all of these properties are
changeable with time due to biofouling, weathering, mechanical degradation and other external forcings. As a result, MPs spreading under sea conditions is difficult to predict.
Data of a series of laboratory experiments, targeted at understanding of basic physical characteristics and transport properties of some types of MPs particles are reported.
First tests examined which types of particles can be generated in the sea swash zone with coarse bottom sediment from larger objects made of polyethylene (PE), solid polystyrene (PS), foamed PS, and polypropylene (PP). Artificially made plastic samples were placed in laboratory mixer with inclined axis of rotation, filled with water and marine pebbles, and were rotated for 24 hours. Every 3 h, the type of the generated MP particles and size distribution were examined. Solid PS appears to quickly produce the largest number of MPs. Foamed PS samples break with time into individual spherules, which are difficult to disintegrate further. PE films get folded 4-8 times very quickly and remain as such afterwards for a long time, with a very small fraction of fibre-like particles generated. PP samples are the hardest: they stay practically the same after 24 h of mixing with pebbles, with practically no MPs generated.
In the second set, the settling velocity of various plastic particles was addressed.
Artificially made polycaprolactone particles of various shapes, fishing line cuts, and synthetic fibres were put in the laboratory glass column, and their free fall in water was monitored. The shape of a particle is shown to play the key role in the particle' behaviour.
The third set of tests aims at understanding of magnitude of critical shear velocity of MPs of various shapes. Classical Shields experiments are modified in order to get re-suspension velocity of 3d, 2d and 1d plastic particles (of similar densities of about 1.05 g/cm3 and similar size of about 3 - 4 mm) from the bottom covered with natural coarse sand (1 - 1.5 mm), granules (3 -4 mm), and cobbles (1 - 2 cm). The results indicate that, again, the particle shape is of primary importance for its re-suspension.
Investigations are supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project number 15-17-10020 (MARBLE).
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1Institute of Geosciences, University Kiel, Germany, 2Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany, 3Alfred-Wegner-Institut, Bremerhaven, Germany,
4Department of Biology, Sacred Heart University, US, 5Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
Excess nutrient supply by rivers and the atmosphere are considered as one of the major causes for the poor ecological status of the Baltic Sea. One of the so far
underestimated and insufficiently quantified nutrient sources is submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). SGD occurs wherever the hydraulic gradient on land is above sea level and permeable paths allow subsurface flow of groundwater to the sea.
As most of the upper aquifers in the German Baltic Sea catchment are highly affected by fertilizers used in agriculture nutrient discharge via SGD is likely.
We investigated the occurrence of SGD along the coastline of the Eckernförde Bay using a variety of different methodological approaches (coastal radon and radium seawater surveys, push point piezometers, seepage meters, CTD-divers). Widespread
occurrences of SGD as indicated by surface sediment pore water salinities lower than ambient seawater were detected at 15 out of the 18 locations investigated. Monitoring of sediment pore water salinities for several weeks at various locations in the Eckernförde Bay suggests a very dynamic system with rapid salinity changes largely depending on the sea-level. At low sea-level the hydraulic gradient between the coastal aquifer and the sea level is highest resulting in a higher SGD flux and thus lower pore water salinity compared to times of high sea-level when the SGD flux is lower. The mean SGD flux as determined by seepage meters is 21 cm/d (range 0.6 cm/d – 173 cm/d; n = 342) with most of the fluxes (73%) occurring in the range < 20 cm/d. SGD consists on average of 16.8% of freshwater with recirculated seawater forming the remainder. Compared to other SGD systems studied world-wide this SGD fresh water fraction is relatively high. This is most probably due to the low tidal range in the Baltic Sea which reduces tidal pumping and thus the recirculation of seawater. SGD-borne dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN = NO3 + NH4 + NO2) concentrations are on average 96 µmol/l (range 0.7 µmol/l – 684 µmol/l, n= 102) with higher concentrations (mean 265 +/- 99 µmol/l) in low saline waters (salinity < 0.2). For estimations of DIN supply to the entire Eckernförde Bay we used two approaches: i) areal extrapolation of seepage meter measurements and ii) radium isotope mass balances. The results of these approaches, their advantages and disadvantages are discussed in the presentation.
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ONITORING/ O
BSERVATION/A
SSESSMENTS
YSTEMSA
NOVEL APPROACH TO ESTIMATE INFORMATION UNDER CLOUD COVER IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES USING NUMERICAL MODELSKonik, M.1, Kowalewski, M.1, Darecki, M.1, and Bradtke, K.2
1The Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 2The Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdańsk
The remote sensing techniques play a key-role in the monitoring of environmental change. However, this observation method is often limited by the presence of cloud cover, what introduces analytical biases and usually leads to classifying data as missing values that causes discontinuities in the datasets. A variety of advanced statistical methods have been developed in order to approach that problem, but gap filling is still a task to solve in the Earth system sciences. The multivariate approaches or spatiotemporal gaps distribution analyses reveal particular problems in the areas of systematically recurring gaps due to the persistent cloud cover, where capturing any regularity or patterns is doubly difficult. Moreover, the specificity of the Baltic Sea makes it impossible to use most of the commonly applied a priori assumption or any global estimates.
Here we propose a novel approach of complementing information from the satellite imagery with the data obtained from eco-hydrodynamic models. The gap filling procedure consists of several steps. First, the systematic error between satellite data and a numerical model is found to equalize both datasets. Then, a filtration of the satellite images is performed to eliminate single-pixel gaps caused by masking singular outliers and local artifacts. In order to increase the contribution of satellite information, a mosaic from images falling into a particular time window is prepared.
Finally, data from the two sources are combined together considering weights, which were introduced to smooth values in the transition between the input images. This method is efficient for the log-distributed values and produces Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) lower than the input model or satellite datasets, which were checked against individual in situ measurements or time series collected from buoys. The algorithm was optimised for the Baltic Sea area and the optimal parameters were found and tested for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST). A particular emphasis was put on retaining the remotely sensed information to a high degree in order to preserve local mesoscale phenomena that are hard to capture through modeling. On the other hand, models as independent source of information provide a reliable solution to filling the long-term stationary gaps, especially in the recent time, when performance of various models is much increased.
106
C
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ONITORING/ O
BSERVATION/A
SSESSMENTS
YSTEMSD
ISTRIBUTION OF SUSPENDED MATTER ACROSS THEB
ALTICS
EA Kratzer, S.11Stockholm Univeristy
There are three optical in-water components that, besides water itself, govern the under-water light field of aquatic systems: phytoplankton, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM). In essence, it is the spectral absorption and scattering properties of each optical component that govern the underwater light field, and also the colour of sea that we can perceive.
The Baltic Sea is optically dominated by CDOM, apart from during time of cyanobacteria blooms. In coastal areas, the optical properties are influenced by all optical
components, as these areas are highly influenced by run-off from land. An increase in precipitation also leads to an increase in SPM and CDOM, and eventually also of phytoplankton chlorophyll-a due to the increase in nutrients.
In summer, the open Baltic Sea is often dominated by cyanobacteria blooms that often cover most of the Baltic proper. Ocean colour images reveal large-and mesoscale features and currents, which are influenced both by the Coriolis force, but also by atmospheric Rosby waves. The blooms and features in the open sea can be monitored both using the chlorophyll-a as well as the SPM products from ocean colour data.
The MERIS instrument on ESA's ENVISAT provided us with a decadal time series of high quality ocean colour data (2002-2012). ESA’s OLCI instrument was launched
successfully on Sentinel-3 (S3) in early 2016 (300 m resolution - same as MERIS). But ESA have also launched MSI on Sentinel-2 (S3) already in 2015, a sensor which was mostly designed for terrestrial applications. MSI can be used to derive both the SPM concentration as well as turbidity and has an improved spatial resolution (10-60 m in the visible) and is therefore of special interest for coastal applications.
In this talk I will give an overview of the distribution of SPM in the Baltic Sea basin, using both optical in-water measurements and remote sensing data (MERIS/S2/S3). I will also present recent work on algorithm development and validation, including algorithms for turbidity, Secchi depth and diffuse attenuation.
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BSERVATION/A
SSESSMENTS
YSTEMST
OWARDS AN OPERATIONAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL SYSTEM TO SUPPORT THEM
ARINES
TRATEGYF
RAMEWORKD
IRECTIVE REPORTINGLorkowski, I.1, Schwichtenberg, F.1, Janssen, F.1, Brüning, T.1, Neumann, D.2, Neumann, T.2, Nerger, L.3, and Matthias, V.4
1Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Hamburg, Germany, 2Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany, 33Alfred-Wegener-Institut,
Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany,
44Helmholtz-Center Geesthacht (HZG), Geesthacht, Germany
The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) in Germany is a maritime service provider on national and European level. The operational model system developed and run at BSH provides an important part of the information needed to support these services. The biogeochemical model ERGOM coupled to the circulation model HBM (HIROMB-BOOS-Model) is used in operational mode for the North and Baltic Sea to
The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) in Germany is a maritime service provider on national and European level. The operational model system developed and run at BSH provides an important part of the information needed to support these services. The biogeochemical model ERGOM coupled to the circulation model HBM (HIROMB-BOOS-Model) is used in operational mode for the North and Baltic Sea to