The primary objective of this trend report is to provide the German Environment Agency
(Umweltbundesamt – UBA) and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit – BMU) with an overview and thus a broad basis of
information on the latest developments, with which future policy approaches and measures can be developed as proactively as possible. In addition to a detailed description of the trends surrounding meat alternatives, a further objective is to analyse environmental impacts, identify opportunities and risks, and formulate initial policy options.
The study, however, is not exclusively aimed at the UBA and BMU, but rather, the findings presented in this report are intended to contribute to the formation of public opinion. Through analysis of trends that are socially, economically and politically highly relevant, the UBA and BMU are therefore also able to make a contribution that can be taken up and continued in various (specialist) public discourses. The subject of this trend analysis is protein-rich alternatives to meat, which will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 3.
The primary motivation for the environmental policy debate on alternative protein sources results from the following widely held assumption: meat alternatives place less of a burden on the environment compared to meat and meat products and could thus help to move the food system in a more sustainable direction, especially in the context of avoiding greenhouse emissions. This assumption needs to be critically reviewed, however, especially as the topic of meat of the future will bring different interrelated developments and products into focus.
In comparison to conventional animal production, which is considered unsustainable in its current form, it is being investigated whether alternative meat products can be produced more sustainably, i.e. in particular whether they can be produced using less land and water, less energy and with fewer emissions.
For the UBA and BMU this trend report is intended to provide an overview of possible direct and indirect environmental effects of various meat alternatives, to
formulate initial environmental policy measures, to uncover and correlate different positions and views on future developments in the field and to identify gaps in research.
Addressing the policy areas agriculture, food and environment
The topic “meat of the future” concerns three major policy areas. In particular: agriculture, food as well as health and environmental protection. Questions of animal ethics and animal protection are included but can only be touched upon. It can be expected that different interests will clash. In this respect, the study is also intended to contribute to the interministerial coordination of measures, recommendations and follow-up activities.
This already complex issue cannot be placed in every conceivable context. For this reason, the present trend analysis is limited in its breadth and depth. This concerns the findings presented on stakeholders, market developments and, in particular, the environmental effects assessed. Here, the focus is largely on Germany, although the products under consideration are often either manufactured abroad and imported into Germany or have so far been exclusively distributed to Germany. However, no analysis of worldwide trend developments and global environmental impacts is provided. Rather, international interrelations and effects are used at appropriate points to support the argumentation.
No predictions are being made
Within the context of this trend report no predictions are being made. Firstly, this is due to methodological limitations: trend reports tend to carve out
possibilities for development and courses of action based on existing expertise rather than to simply extrapolate trends from the past into the future.
Neither are scenarios developed that show different possible futures. Furthermore, factual aspects also make it difficult to formulate any kind of forecasts:
while plant-based meat substitutes are considered to be established on the German market, it has so far only rarely been possible to completely imitate comparable meat products. Edible insects, in contrast, do not yet constitute a mass market in Germany, and products made from in vitro meat have not yet
reached market maturity. A forecast against the background of very different and complex starting positions will therefore always be characterised by uncertainties.
Nevertheless, an assessment of future development potentials for all three meat alternatives must at least be included for the development of recommendations for action. The resulting interactions and the
formulation of governance approaches with which the change in the food system can be influenced, also belong to the assessment of future potentials.
Trend analysis to identify different gover-nance approaches
The study therefore uses a modified form of the trend analysis method established at the UBA (“Employing trend analysis in environmental research and policy – a methods report”; published in 2020; FKZ 3714 17 102 0), the aim of which is not to predict the future
but to describe and evaluate trends and identify different governance approaches. In a first step – the trend description – stakeholders, driving forces and causes of the trend as well as past developments, the current trend status and, if possible, quantitative assumptions of its future development are presented in a substantiated manner. The elements of the trend that are environmentally relevant, i.e. that can have a direct or indirect impact on the state of
Figure 01
Questions of trend description and environmental assessment
Source: Own illustration
Questions
What is the conceptual understanding underlying future meat?
Which meat alternatives are covered by the analysis and which are not?
Which factors influence the future development of meat alternatives?
Why is the topic of meat of the future particularly relevant for UBA and BMU?
What developments have the three meat alternatives gone through so far and what is the status quo?
Which production processes exist?
What different economic, scientific and social perspectives shape the debate on the three alternatives?
Which driving forces and barriers will shape the future development of the three alternatives?
What uncertainties characterise the future trend development?
What does the overall picture of future meat look like?
What are the environmental effects of conventional animal production?
Which health effects can be described?
What environmental effects can be determined for the three alternatives?
Which health effects of the three alternatives can be described?
How can politics shape the changes?
Which fields of action and options for action exist?
Political entry points and research questions Environmental assessment
Driving forces, barriers and uncertainties Trend description Conceptual under-standing and determining factors
Chapter
the environment, are highlighted. In the second step – analysis of negative and positive effects on the environment – the possible direct and, as far as ascertainable, indirect effects of the trend are identified, evaluated and supplemented by resulting environmental policy options for action. The aspects focused on in the individual chapters are listed below:
▸ Chapter 3 formulates the determining factors and conceptual understanding assumed for future developments in the topic area of “meat of the future”. The context is particularly marked by ad-vancing climate change, demographic, economic and political developments, but also by technolo-gical innovations.
▸ A more detailed characterisation of the selected alternatives is the subject of Chapter 4. The respective background, the specific manufactu-ring processes and their technological maturity are presented, as well as information on relevant stakeholder groups.
▸ Future possible developments of the trend are presented in Chapter 5 on the basis of the iden-tifiable driving forces and barriers as well as the uncertainties to be taken into account in order to create an analytical basis for the assessment of environmental impacts.
▸ Chapter 6 assesses the negative and positive effects on the environment of the three meat alternatives against the reference framework of currently established animal production. The chapter concludes with an overall assessment of the opportunities and challenges of the topic
“meat of the future”.
▸ Chapter 7 formulates corresponding policy op-tions for action for the UBA and BMU and identi-fies possible gaps in research.
▸ Chapter 8 concludes with a summary of the cen-tral results of the trend analysis and environmen-tal assessment as well as the recommendations for actions and ventures a brief outlook.
The trend analysis draws on currently available literature, market data, survey results (including those from the environmental awareness study conducted in 2018 and the accessible results data, see Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit (BMU) and Umweltbundesamt (UBA) 2019) as well as findings from interviews with experts, visits to events and the results of two workshops. The sources used are listed in the Annex.