A study on this subject has been published by Ewers et a l . (1986). This work has sum of individual evaluations. Many different arguments have been presented against this, including information problems, representation problems, neglect of f u t u r e generations, and distribution problems (distribution of available income).
methods f o r monetary evaluation w a s presented by Ewers and Schulz (1982). This systematology is given in R g u r e 1. On t h e basis of t h e social welfare economy. t h e level of t h e willingness
to
pay and t h e willingnessto
sell must b e made knownto
t h e p a r t y affected. This can b e done directly (questioning) or indirectly (estimation).The d i r e c t investigation requires a satisfactory level of information on t h e p a r t of the person questioned. Indirect investigation processes avoid any expenditure in- volved with t h e questioning; however, they often considerably under estimate t h e social w e l f a r e
losses.
Indirect investigation processesmust
also,as
f a r as possi-1. Use of probability distribution or subjective point probability
to
connect t h e tainment of damage, without differentiating between growing area or harmful sub- stances. The a u t h o r s point o u t t h a t what i s described in t h e study as f o r e s t dam-Three scenarios were drawn up. Presumptions were made on t h e most impor-
tant
harmful substances accordingto
t h e present s t a t e of scientific knowledge, namely SO2 and NO,. The presumptionswere
based on t h e ideas t h a t (a) t h e development of t h e population in t h e FRG will decline (from 61 million inhabitants in 1984to
approximately 50 million inhabitants in t h e y e a r 2030). (b) t h e real gross national product is expectedto
increaseat
arate
of 22 until y e a r 2000, t h e r e a f t e rat
arate
of 1.12, and (c) a decline in t h e primary energy consumption of 375 million tons of h a r d coal units in t h e y e a r 2000to
360 million tons h a r d coal units inthe
y e a r 2030. Thereafter t h e development is expectedto
b e stable.A t present 3.2 million
tons
of SO2 and 3.3 million tons NO,are
emitted in t h ePRG.
I tis
expected t h a t 502 of t h e SO2 produced in t h e FRG i s exported; however, t h esame
quantity i s imported (Ewers at aZ., 1986). With respectto
t h e develop- ment of t h e s e emissions t h e following scenariow a s
developed.fiend-Scenario Q,our Emissions=I%S): Until t h e beginning of t h e next decade i t i s expected t h a t t h e SO2 emissions w i l l d e c r e a s e by 40% and t h e NO,-emissions by 30%.
For t h e following period, from 1991
to
2060 i t i s assumed t h a t t h e SO2 emissions will r e a c h 252 and t h e NO, 35% of t h e 1980 level. I t is also pointed out t h a t t h e en- vironmental policy measures taken upto
now have not been sufficientto
achieve these reductions. A p a r t i c u l a r problem h e r e i s posed by foreign emissions.Status-quo-Scenafio (F1cigh E m i s s i o h s
=HES):
A level of emissions w a s assumed which corresponds t o t h e present level. In t h e period of t h e simulation and under these conditions, a n annual emission of 3.2 million tons of sulfur dioxide and 3.3 million tons of nitrogen oxide is expected. No changes are expected in t h e level of emissions affecting forests.R ~ r e n c e - S c e n a r t o QPEIS): Harmful substance emissions and chimney stack heights are assumed similar
to
those in t h e 1930s. This variant s e r v e s t o describe each development which has taken place in t h e last 30 y e a r s without effecting a change.This time w a s chosen because t h e level of a i r pollution corresponds
to
t h a t which prevailedat
t h e time of construction of t h e yield tables of Wiedemann (Wiedemann, 1936/42 cit. by Ewers e t d . , 1986). The fertilizing effect of t h e a i r pollution w a s also t h e r e b y taken into account.lklphi technique
The basis f o r t h e scenarios w a s a questioning of e x p e r t s organised according
to
t h e Delphi technique. This i s a process of obtaining and approximating opinions ofa
group of chosen experts. The technique was developed in t h e 1950's. The pro-cess
is oharacterised by t h r e e features:-
questioning ofa
group of e x p e r t s-
anonymity of t h e e x p e r t s-
questioning in many rounds and feedback of all results. A dynamic simulation model of s p r u c e servedas a
basis. Three rounds of questioningw a s
required.3.1.2. &ralta of the scenarios forestation project with different silvicultural concepts, a sum in t h e range of 65 million DM will b e necessary until t h e y e a r 1992 (Anon., 1988). In Bavaria, people opinions exist about t h e subject of fertilizing (Glatzel, 1987a; Glatzel (ed.), 1987b;
Hiittl, 1987; Isermann, 1987; Schweizer Bundesamt fiir Forstwesen und Landschaftsschutz, 1987; Greminger, 1985; Bayer. Forstl. V-u.FA 1987; Gussone, 1987).
Table 3. Monetary consequences in forestry due to forest decline in million DM.
LES
=
low emissions (Trend-Scenario), HES=
high emissions (Status-quo- Scenario). (Source: Ewers et d., 1986.)lloaoili.Ld Not ..1u
.
Dlf!olrnoo ln atand v a l u 0 BS.046 51.841 17.087 80.8Z8Not ..1u 1 1 1.058 14,866 8.OB6 8.777
B 6.- 8.856 5.796 46e4
5 1.715 5.50s 1.808 e.eos
~ n n u a l v a l u o 555 401 a e e70
1 B B ~ e74 160 18s
5. Comtr of culturar 0 10.164 3e.868 14.058 31.630
due to conwrdon 1 7.135 16,054 8.844 Zl,474
Not value e 6.e67 11.850 6.768 15.Z30
3 4.067 9.150 4.885 11.e39
~ n n u a l value o ~ s e 897 18s 411
1 133 300 178 401
e 135 30s 17s 380
3 136 506 167 376
4. Mmlnlmtmtlw oxpsnnr 0
d w to conwrdon alrar 1
Not valw e
3 Annual value
5. comtm
Not valum
Annual value
6. Rmddual dom#e Net ..1um
Annual value 0 1.57e 1,681 l.OW 1A7E
1 560 08s 41s soe
e mo 880 109 ma
3 86 110 68 103
7. T otrl d a q o 0 111.31e 160,468 157.770 106.686
Not d w 1 85.857 118,053 68.w 100.889
e 48.581 61.657 58.551 5 s . e ~
5 ro.ose 57.604 ~ 1 . 6 3 1 se.088
Annual ..1w
Nota: 0.1, e and 5 lrfer to d h o u n t mta in X.
In t h e work of Ewers st ad. (1986) a basic assumption i s made t h a t an equally with coniferous roundwood, no strong increase in demand i s expected in coniferous industrial wood. The requirement in industrial residual wood is estimated
at
6.9 million cubic meters in the y e a r 2000 in comparison with t h e requirement in 1982 of 4.3 million cubic meters. H e r e thestrongest
growth in demand i s expected. Fol- lowing t h e decline in t h e domestic wood r e s e r v e , a period of s h o r t a g e w i l l occur(see comparison Ftgures 5a-5e). This could hardly be balanced o u t by precaution- ary s t o r a g e of t h e timber
or
by import.Lsfsure and recreation
In the field of leisure and r e c r e a t i o n in connection with f o r e s t damage, five utility components in monetary evaluation have been taken into consideration. These are:
-
loss of use by local visitors ment costs f o r stream and avalanche constructions and soil-erosion protection in t h e Alps will b e necessary. H e r e one c a n r e f e r backto
e a r l i e r studies made in t h eTable 4. Monetary consequences in leisure and r e c r e a t i o n a l activities due t o f o r e s t decline in million DM. LES
=
low emissions (Trend-Scenario), HES=
high emissions (Status-qu*Scenario). (Source: Ewers et ad.. 1986.)Shnario
are
not reduced, t h e n t h e p i c t u r e of t h e damage given in t h e LES must b e s e e n asan
underestimation.Table
5.
Total monetary damage d u eto
f o r e s t decline in million DM. LES=
low emissions (Trend-Scenario), HES=
high emissions (Status-quoScenario). (Source:Ewers
et
d., 1986.)s c e n a r i o
LES m s
Components of damcrqe
1. Damage
in
f o r e s t r y : 0 369,082 487,154Net value 1 163,361 216,922
2 85,912 114,928
3 51,566 69,603
Annual value 0 4,792 6,326
1 3,052 4,053
2 2,320 2,938
3 1,724 2,328
2. Recreation and tourism: 0 487,130 1,254,340
Net value 1 218,499 571,451
2 114,445 304,512
3 67,269 182,309
Annual value 0 6,327 16,290
1 4,083 10,677
2 2,926 7,784
3 2,250 6,096
3. Water conservation: 0 28,800 48,200
Net value 1 16,375 26,525
2 11,042 17,414
3 8,395 12,965
Annual value 0 374 616
1 306 495
2 282 446
3 281 433
4. Total monetarized damage: 0 885,012 1,406.729
Net value 1 398,235 640,723
2 211,399 344,226
3 127,230 209,639
Annual value 0 11,493 18,258
1 7,441 11,971
2 5,528 8,802
3 4,255 7,010
Note: 0, 1, 2 a n d 3 r e f e r