This section applies Carbon Lock-in Curves (CLICs) to analyse the relative risk of fossil fuel power generation assets in Southeast Asia. We use a both global-level and country-level CLICs.
The global-level CLIC plots all current and planned power generating assets around the world providing an understanding of where Southeast Asian assets sit relative to other power stations around the world.
Country-level CLIC plots all current and planned power generating assets that are located in that country. This provides insight into how many assets are incompatible within a country-level carbon budget.
We also undertake a global-level and country-level CLIC analysis of the largest power generation companies in Southeast Asia.
This is not intended to be an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of every Southeast Asian fossil fuel power generation asset, but highlights what is possible and gives some indictive findings that can be interrogated further later on.
Global-level CLIC
Figure 3 presents a global-level CLIC with Southeast Asia assets shown.24 This CLIC plots all current and planned power generating assets around the world. The width of each bar represents the committed emissions that are expected to occur over the remaining life of the unit.
In this CLIC, the power emitting assets within the Southeast Asian region are coloured orange and any other global power assets are brown. Each power unit in this CLIC is ordered by the plant efficiency (carbon intensity (kg/MWh), which is reported on the y-axis. The three vertical lines represent the global carbon budget that has been allocated to the global power sector. Power generating units that fall to the left of these budget lines are compatible with that budget, whereas assets that fall to the right of these budget lines are incompatible with the carbon budget allocation for that warming scenario and are likely to face a higher risk of stranding.
Not all units are easily visible on these global-level CLICs without the ability to zoom since over 90,000 individual assets are being plotted. As a result, assets with small CCCEs will not be discernible on this plot. To provide a better understanding of the stranding risk for power generating assets in the Southeast Asia region, Table 3 provides some statistics for the number of emitting assets and where they fall relative to the global budgets.
Table 3 reports the number of carbon emitting power units by country relative to the global carbon budgets. The majority of units (62.2%) in Southeast Asia are compatible with the 2°C budget but are incompatible with a 1.5°C global carbon budget.
24 The Southeast Asian countries in this report include: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam.
Carbon Lock-in Curves and Southeast Asia 15 Figure 3: Global-level Carbon Lock-in Curve
This figure plots a Global-level CLIC. All current and planned Southeast Asia power assets are in orange and other global power assets are in brown.
N.B. To improve rendering, assets with the same efficiency are aggregated and plotted as one. Therefore, each bar may represent the CCCEs of many individual assets.
Using this rendering any bar with at least one Southeast Asian asset is coloured orange. Power generating assets are ordered by asset efficiency (carbon intensity (kg/MWh). The vertical lines represent the global emissions budget allocated to the global power sector for each warming scenario.
Table 3: Current and Planned Emitting Units Position Relative to the Global Budgets by Country
This table reports the emitting units position relative to the global budget for the countries in Southeast Asia. The number and percentage of units that are incompatible with each carbon budget are reported for each Southeast Asian country.
Total Emitting Units Units
Incompatible with 1.5°C
Budget
Units Incompatible with 1.5°C - 2°C
Budget
Units Incompatible with 2°C - 3°C
Budget Country Current Planned Total
Brunei 55 7 62 88.7% (55) 45.2% (28) 0.0% (0)
Cambodia 155 13 168 94.6% (159) 10.1% (17) 1.8% (3)
Indonesia 2478 287 2765 89.0% (2460) 26.4% (730) 3.5% (97)
Laos 61 3 64 98.4% (63) 7.8% (5) 0.0% (0)
Malaysia 803 54 857 88.8% (761) 14.2% (122) 2.5% (21)
Myanmar 100 34 134 65.7% (88) 35.8% (48) 0.7% (1)
Philippines 1303 195 1498 83.3% (1248) 13.4% (200) 3.8% (57)
Singapore 149 5 154 81.2% (125) 33.8% (52) 7.8% (12)
Thailand 541 130 671 52.8% (354) 14.3% (96) 1.9% (13)
Timor-Leste 54 22 76 96.1% (73) 0.0% (0) 0.0% (0)
Vietnam 198 116 314 86.9% (273) 50.0% (157) 19.7% (62)
Total 5897 866 6763 83.7% (5659) 21.5% (1455) 3.9% (266)
Carbon Lock-in Curves and Southeast Asia 16 Vietnam has one of the highest proportions of non-emitting power units (71.9%), also has the highest percentage of emitting units incompatible with the 2°C (50%) and the 3°C budgets (19.7%). The Philippines has the second largest total of emitting units and has one of the highest proportions of units that are compatible with the 2°C budget (86.7%). Thailand has the highest proportion of units (47.2%) that are compatible with the 1.5°C global carbon budget.
The CLICs presented in this report are all ranked by carbon intensity. However, this ordering method ignores other valid decarbonisation concerns including marginal costs, geographic equity, replacement costs, and biases against specific fuel-types. Furthermore, it should be noted that planned or under-construction plants will have lower carbon intensity, making these investments appear less risky.
However, the planned and under-construction assets will also likely have the highest remaining expected committed emissions since their life expectancy is assumed to be 40 years.
To get around these concerns alternative ranking methods can also be applied. Currently the only alternative ordering approach we have programmed into our tool (see subsequent section) is by plant age. In future we will introduce the ability to order assets based on other methods, including: marginal cost, levelised cost of electricity, and a weighted index of several variables.
To provide greater insight into the risks within Southeast Asia a company-level analysis was also conducted based on global-level carbon budgets. Table 4 presents the number of emitting assets and where they fall relative to the global budgets for the ten largest power utilities (based on capacity) in Southeast Asia. These ten power utilities constitute approximately 20% of the units in the region.
According to our analysis, the majority of power utilities in Southeast Asia have between 20% and 45%
by number of units and 20% and 82% by capacity incompatible with the 2°C global carbon budget. The power utility with the highest proportion of units that are compatible with the 2°C budget (91.9%) is Malaysia-based Sarawak Energy Bhd Group.
Table 4: Top 10 Power Utilities in Southeast Asia Relative to the Global Power Sector Carbon Budget
This table reports the current and planned emitting units position relative to the global budget for the ten largest power utilities in Southeast Asia. The number and percentage of units that are incompatible with each carbon budget are reported for each power utility. The largest utilities are determined on the total capacity (MW/hr) across all units owned by that provider. The providers are presented in order based on their total capacity.
Emitting Units Units
Country Current Planned Total
EGAT 79 15 94 88.3% (83) 45.7% (43) 2.1% (2)
Carbon Lock-in Curves and Southeast Asia 17
Country-level CLICs
A country-level CLIC plots all current and planned power generating assets that are located in a particular country. Country-level CLICs provide a useful way to assess stranding risk based on country-specific decarbonisation plans, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
This section presents country-level CLICs for the three largest power utilities (Electricity Generating Authority Thailand, PT PLN Persero, and PetroVietnam Power Corp) in Southeast Asia. These CLICs are presented in Figures 4 to 6.
Figure 4 is a Thailand CLIC where Electricity Generating Authority Thailand (EGAT) power generating units are coloured orange and other Thai power assets are coloured brown. Similarly, Figure 5 is an Indonesian CLIC where PT PLN Persero assets are coloured orange and other Indonesian power assets are brown. Finally, Figure 6 presents the Vietnamese CLIC. The PetroVietnam Power Corp assets are coloured orange and other power assets are coloured brown. A summary of these CLICs with the number and proportion of units relative to the country-level budgets is reported in Table 5. Over 85%
of power generating units for the three power utilities are incompatible with the 2°C country-level budgets.
For each of these country-level CLICs there is a higher proportion of assets incompatible with a given carbon budget relative to the global-level CLIC. The country carbon budget allocations we have used in this analysis are weighted more towards maintaining current emission ratios (i.e. largest emitters today receive the largest proportions) (see Section 2 for more details). As Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam have a small current emission ratio they receive a relatively small allocation of the global carbon budgets in the future, which results in a higher proportion of assets being incompatible with each level carbon budget for the power sector. The global-level CLICs analysis ignores country-level carbon budget allocations and so side-steps this issue.
Figure 4: Thailand Carbon Lock-in Curve for Electricity Generating Authority Thailand (EGAT)
This figure plots Thailand country-level Carbon Lock-in Curve (CLIC) for Electricity Generating Authority (EGAT). All current and planned EGAT power assets are coloured orange and other Thai power assets are coloured brown. The vertical lines represent the Thai budget allocated to the Thai power sector for each warming scenario.
Carbon Lock-in Curves and Southeast Asia 18 Figure 5: Indonesia Carbon Lock-in Curve for PT PLN Persero
This figure plots Indonesia country-level Carbon Lock-in Curve (CLIC) for PT PLN Persero. All current and planned PT PLN Persero power assets are coloured orange and other Indonesian power assets are coloured brown. The vertical lines represent the Indonesian budget allocated to the Indonesian power sector for each warming scenario.
Figure 6: Vietnam Carbon Lock-in Curve for PetroVietnam Power Corp
This figure plots Vietnam country-level Carbon Lock-in Curve (CLIC) for PetroVietnam Power Corp. All current and planned EGAT power assets are coloured orange and other Vietnamese power assets are coloured brown. The vertical lines represent the Vietnamese budget allocated to the Vietnamese power sector for each warming scenario.
Carbon Lock-in Curves and Southeast Asia 19 Table 5: Current and Planned Emitting Units Position Relative to the Country Budgets for the Three Largest Power Utilities in Southeast Asia
This table report the current and planned emitting units position relative to the country budget for the three largest power utilities in Southeast Asia. The number and percentage of units that are incompatible with each carbon budget are reported for each power utility.
Emitting Units Units
Incompatible with 1.5°C Budget
Units Incompatible with 1.5°C - 2°C
Budget
Units Incompatible with
2°C - 3°C Budget
Company Current Planned Total
Panel A: Electricity Generating Authority Thailand (EGAT) Units Relative to Thailand Budgets
EGAT 79 15 94 98.9% (93) 90.4% (85) 90.4% (76)
Panel B: PT PLN Pesero Units Relative to Indonesia Budgets
PT PLN Persero 503 69 572 89.3% (511) 87.8% (502) 22.6% (129)
Panel C: PetroVietnam Power Corp Units Relative to Vietnam Budgets
PetroVietnam Power Corp 10 14 24 95.8% (23) 95.8% (23) 58.3% (14)
There are a several limitations to the CLIC analyses that should be noted. The cumulative committed carbon emissions calculations are based on historical rather than forward looking factors. As such, the CCCEs may not accurately reflect the future emissions from power generating assets. Certain factors are not available on a country basis (e.g. utilisation rates) so some of the calculations will likely over or under estimate the committed emissions. However, there is a significant amount of flexibility built into the production of CLICs, so users are able to modify any of these underlying assumptions. Finally, since the information on power assets are sourced from databases that are only periodically updated, there is a delay between when a planned asset or retirement of an asset is initially announced and when it is first accounted for in the CLICs. However, the use of remote sensing technologies affords a way to augment existing asset-level databases and provide more timely updates to changes in the operation of assets.25
25 Caldecott, B., Kruitwagen, L., McCarten, M., Zhou, X., Lunsford, D., Marchand, O., . . . Bohn, N. (2018). Climate risk analysis from space: Remote sensing, machine learning, and the future of measuring climate-related risk.
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