Chapter 1.2. Methodology & Case Selection
1.2.2. Methodology
The research is built on the following causal mechanism which is built on the neoclassical realist understanding of international relations. The systemic pressure derived from the confrontation between great powers is considered the independent variable. This confrontation exerts pressure on the foreign policy and external alignment of smaller states, makes neutrality difficult - if not impossible to be maintained - and forces them to make a choice in their external alignment. The research analyses the foreign policies of the regional states which are in between these rivalries as the dependent variable. The influence of domestic non-state actors on the formation of the external orientation of the regional states constitutes the intervening variable of the research. The potential of the domestic non-state actors to impose crucial influence on foreign policy encourages the external great powers to reach out to them and mould their attitude towards foreign powers through the policies which this thesis conceptualized under the notion of “soft power.”
The research includes the “most similar, different outcome system” design in its analysis (Berg-Schlosser 2012). This implies that variance in the intervening variable (i.e. the intervention of domestic non-state groups on foreign policy under the influence of the external great powers) could affect the choice regional states make in their external alignment: they might align with different external powers although they are similar in many crucial aspects – more importantly in terms of systemic conditions. The thesis conducts its analysis in the cases of Belarus and Ukraine
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(Table 2). The two represent “common neighbourhood” countries with relatively strong state autonomy and those with relatively weak state autonomy, respectively.
Belarus Ukraine
Similar Conditions
Geostrategic environment (including aggressive intentions by the Russian side) Geo-economic characteristics
External Alignment
Alignment with Russia (2016) Alignment with the West (2016) Table 2. The cases Belarus and Ukraine in the “Most Similar Different Outcomes System” design
The previous section demonstrated that Ukraine and Belarus, along with other “common neighbourhood” states, receive similar pressure from the Russian side to refrain from Euro-Atlantic integration. Simultaneously, Western powers seek to tear these countries away from Russia’s sphere of influence. These conditions make their geostrategic environment largely similar. The recent historical background of the two states is also amongst the conditions which make them comparable: both of the countries were part of the Soviet Union being amongst its official founders and disintegrators. They declared themselves independent after the collapse of the Union in 1991. Existence under Soviet control for long years has had a series of implications for these countries. For example, it has made their economies inherently tied with the Russian economy. In 2016, the exports to Russia accounted for 46,5% of Belarus’s total exports, while imports from Russia were more than 55% of its total imports.17 Russia was also the major trade partner of Ukraine until relations deteriorated in the aftermath of the Euromaidan revolution
17 National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (2017), “Foreign Trade of the Republic of Belarus, 2017,”
available at: http://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/publications/statistical-publications-data-books-bulletins/public_compilation/index_8010/ (accessed: 10 October 2017).
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(2014).18 In 2013, Ukraine’s exports of goods to Russia amounted to 50,6% of its overall exports of goods, while its imports from Russia were below 40%.19 In spite of these similarities, they opted for different strategies in their external alignment over the period under study (2004-2016). The research aims to explain this variation in their foreign policy choices by putting an emphasis on the (non)intervention of domestic non-state groups in foreign policy.
The research employs the qualitative method of analysis to examine its hypotheses. It has explored a long range of academic works, publications of various research institutes, news media articles, official documents, public statements, reports of non-governmental organizations, etc.
The materials which used in this process are largely in four languages: English, Russian, German, and Ukrainian. However, the absolute majority of the materials are in the English language. The research has used a series of public opinion surveys conducted by authoritative poll-taking institutes as an empirical basis for measurements of Russian and Western soft power in the
“common neighbourhood.” As conducting nationwide surveys in the case study countries is beyond the scope of this research, the results of the surveys conducted by institutes specialised in poll taking have been frequently used during the study. For instance, the results of public opinion polls carried out between 2004 – 2016 in Belarus by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS), a public institution based in Lithuania, were the primary measurements used to examine the attitudes of Belarusians towards Russia and West. Likewise, the public opinion surveys conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in Ukraine played the similar role in my research concerning Ukraine.
The research uses the case study method to structure its analysis. This approach differentiates three phases in the research process. Alexander George and Andrew Bennett differentiate these phases as follow:
18 Following Crime’s annexation there was a radical fall (around 80%) in trade relations between the two countries.
See, Tass (2015), Russia-Ukraine trade turnover down 80% in 2015 — official,” available at:
http://tass.com/economy/847889 (accessed: 10 October 2017).
19 State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2013), “External Economic Activity”, available at:
http://ukrstat.org/en/druk/publicat/kat_e/publ6_e.htm (accessed: 10 October 2017).
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“In phase one, the objectives, design, and structure of the research are formulated. In phase two, each case study is carried out in accordance with the design. In phase three, the researcher draws upon the findings of the case studies and assesses their contribution to achieve the research objective of the study” (George et al. 2004: 73).
The research sticks to this methodological framework. Firstly, the theoretical underpinnings, hypotheses and goals of the research are presented. This first phase defines the research design and lays the ground for the examination of the selected cases in the following phase. The second phase is going to cover the second and third parts of the thesis. These two parts explore the guiding hypotheses of the research, separately but interrelatedly. The second part focuses on testing the hypothesis about the great power rivalries and their use of soft power as an expansive instrument. In this part, the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and Western powers is analysed and their use of soft power as a tool to influence non-state actors is presented.
The third part tests the hypothesis on the role of the general public in determining the external alignment of regional states. This part divides the “common neighbourhood” countries into two groups – countries with relatively strong state autonomy and countries with relatively weak state autonomy – and selects Belarus and Ukraine as the two cases that represent these groups, respectively. The final concluding section will form the third phase of the research; its purpose is to review the findings of the case studies in the light of the research goals and theoretical framework.
Conclusion
This chapter has introduced the cases and methodology which the thesis will use to test its hypotheses. It opted for the Russia – West competition between 2004 – 2016 over the states which are located between the EU and Russia – the region which is known as the “common (or shared) neighbourhood.” It categorized the regional states into two groups in accordance with the reports of international organizations and some of the political events that took place in these states in the target period: states with relatively strong state autonomy (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus) and
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states with relatively weak state autonomy (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine). One state from each group will be subject to more thorough analysis of the thesis: Belarus and Ukraine.
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