Table 1: The borrowing from informal credit sources
2004 2006
Poor Non-Poor Total Poor Non-Poor Total
% houses borrowing from informal sources
26.3 18.5 19.8 20.5 15.4 16.1
[1.2] [0.5] [0.5] [1.3] [0.5] [0.4]
Loan size per borrowing household (thousand VND)
3540.5 11111.7 9396.3 2968.9 11078.6 9676.9
[378.3] [1151.8] [899.5] [247.9] [748.7] [629.2]
Distribution of the borrowing households
22.7 77.3 100 17.3 82.7 100
[1.1] [1.1] [1.1] [1.1]
Distribution of loan across borrowing households
8.5 91.5 100 5.3 94.7 100
[1.3] [1.3] [0.7] [0.7]
Ratio of loan to expenditure 45.9 63.1 61.5 38.0 53.8 52.8
[4.9] [9.5] [8.6] [3.3] [3.5] [3.2]
Monthly interest (%) 0.60 0.62 0.61 0.85 0.51 0.53
[0.11] [0.09] [0.08] [0.19] [0.05] [0.05]
Number of observations 1769 7419 9188 1427 7762 9189
Standard errors in brackets. Standard errors are corrected for sampling weights and cluster correlation.
Source: Author’s estimation from VHLSSs 2004 and 2006.
Table 2: The use of informal credit
Activities 2004 2006
Poor Non-Poor Total Poor Non-Poor Total
Investment and production
Agriculture/Fishery/Aquaculture 24.1 11.5 12.5 21.5 10.0 10.6
[3.8] [2.0] [1.9] [3.9] [1.5] [1.4]
Services and business 3.6 24.2 22.4 1.6 15.9 15.1
[1.4] [6.6] [6.2] [1.0] [3.4] [3.3]
Other non-farm activities 0.7 11.0 10.1 1.7 2.4 2.4
[0.4] [4.4] [4.1] [0.9] [0.7] [0.7]
Consumption
Debt repayment 5.3 4.1 4.2 10.3 6.0 6.2
[1.3] [1.1] [1.0] [2.7] [1.2] [1.2]
House construction/purchase 29.4 21.7 22.4 36.4 31.7 32.0
[5.7] [3.3] [3.1] [5.5] [3.1] [3.0]
Education 0.6 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.0 2.9
[0.3] [0.3] [0.3] [1.1] [0.5] [0.5]
Healthcare 7.5 8.0 7.9 5.4 7.8 7.6
[1.7] [1.1] [1.0] [1.6] [1.2] [1.1]
Durable appliances 5.7 2.7 3.0 1.5 3.5 3.4
[1.7] [0.5] [0.5] [0.8] [0.6] [0.6]
Other consumption 23.1 15.3 15.9 19.0 19.7 19.7
[6.6] [2.5] [2.4] [2.8] [2.7] [2.6]
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Number of observations 498 1572 2070 305 1363 1668
Standard errors in brackets. Standard errors are corrected for sampling weights and cluster correlation.
Source: Author’s estimation from VHLSSs 2004 and 2006.
Table 3: The effect of informal loans on per capita expenditures
Explanatory variables OLS -
pooled
Notes : The regressions include household and regional control variables Robust standard errors in brackets.
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Table 4: The effect of informal loans on per capita expenditures: Instrumental variables regressions
Explanatory variables Pooled
sample: IV
Notes : The regressions include household and regional control variables Robust standard errors in brackets.
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Table 5: Impact of informal credit on expenditures per capita measured by ATT
Year Y1 Y0 ATT
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
Figures in parentheses are standard errors.
Standard errors are corrected for sampling weights and estimated using bootstrap (non-parametric) with 500 replications.
Source: Estimation from VHLSSs 2004 and 2006
Table 6: Impact of informal credit on poverty and inequality
2004 2006
With credit Without credit Impact With credit Without credit Impact Poverty of borrowers
P0 0.2532*** 0.3282*** -0.0750** 0.1972*** 0.2805*** -0.0833**
[0.0123] [0.0326] [0.0307] [0.0135] [0.0348] [0.0327]
P1 0.0574*** 0.0855*** -0.0281** 0.0468*** 0.0694*** -0.0226**
[0.0039] [0.0127] [0.0117] [0.0045] [0.0110] [0.0098]
P2 0.0204*** 0.0319*** -0.0115** 0.0170*** 0.0262*** -0.0092**
[0.0020] [0.0058] [0.0052] [0.0021] [0.0048] [0.0041]
All poverty
P0 0.1949*** 0.2102*** -0.0153** 0.1597*** 0.1736*** -0.0138**
[0.0058] [0.0084] [0.0063] [0.0059] [0.0080] [0.0055]
P1 0.0472*** 0.0529*** -0.0057** 0.0383*** 0.0421*** -0.0037**
[0.0019] [0.0031] [0.0024] [0.0019] [0.0026] [0.0016]
P2 0.0170*** 0.0193*** -0.0023** 0.0137*** 0.0152*** -0.0015**
[0.0009] [0.0015] [0.0011] [0.0009] [0.0012] [0.0007]
All inequality
Gini 0.3698*** 0.3742*** -0.0043** 0.3580*** 0.3613*** -0.0034**
[0.0050] [0.0054] [0.0019] [0.0046] [0.0047] [0.0015]
Theil L 0.2235*** 0.2291*** -0.0055** 0.2117*** 0.2159*** -0.0041**
[0.0062] [0.0068] [0.0025] [0.0056] [0.0059] [0.0019]
Theil T 0.2407*** 0.2466*** -0.0059** 0.2268*** 0.2310*** -0.0043**
[0.0077] [0.0083] [0.0026] [0.0074] [0.0076] [0.0019]
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Figures in parentheses are standard errors.
Standard errors are corrected for sampling weights and estimated using bootstrap (non-parametric) with 500 replications.
Source: Estimation from VHLSSs 2004 and 2006.
Appendix
Table A.1: Descriptive statistics of households with and without informal credit
Variables Type 2004 2006
Ratio of members younger than 16 to total household members
Continuous 0.2970 0.2579 0.2735 0.2347
[0.0058] [0.0028] [0.0062] [0.0027]
Ratio of members older than 60 to total household members
Continuous 0.0748 0.0983 0.0670 0.1027
[0.0035] [0.0021] [0.0037] [0.0021]
Ratio of female members to total household members
Continuous 0.5050 0.5054 0.5097 0.5099
[0.0044] [0.0022] [0.0047] [0.0022]
Household size Discrete 5.0194 5.0105 4.8786 4.8650
[0.0593] [0.0294] [0.0551] [0.0321]
Ratio of members with technical degree to total household members
Continuous 0.0568 0.0581 0.0636 0.0677
[0.0037] [0.0020] [0.0048] [0.0021]
Ratio of members with post secondary to total household members
Continuous 0.0150 0.0368 0.0183 0.0374
[0.0020] [0.0019] [0.0024] [0.0018]
Area of annual crop land per capita (m2) Continuous 573.9 692.9 627.6 708.9
[31.0] [20.7] [35.6] [21.8]
Area of perennial crop land per capita (m2) Continuous 183.2 206.7 221.7 241.5
[27.8] [15.6] [24.2] [15.4]
Forestry land per capita (m2) Continuous 170.4 200.6 175.9 221.8
[36.3] [25.6] [32.4] [30.5]
Aquaculture water surface per capita (m2) Continuous 27.6 67.6 43.0 65.4
[5.2] [8.7] [13.9] [9.0]
Commune variables
Road to village (yes = 1) Binary 0.6735 0.5846 0.7090 0.6208
[0.0151] [0.0103] [0.0157] [0.0101]
Distance to nearest daily market (km) Continuous 2.3459 2.1588 2.7613 2.2634 [0.1534] [0.1049] [0.2761] [0.1091]
Regional variables
Household in Red River Delta Binary 0.2606 0.2071 0.2437 0.2105
[0.0138] [0.0082] [0.0145] [0.0082]
Household in North East Binary 0.1172 0.1132 0.1340 0.1113
[0.0092] [0.0057] [0.0108] [0.0056]
Household in North West Binary 0.0244 0.0308 0.0302 0.0321
[0.0040] [0.0030] [0.0056] [0.0031]
Household in North Central Coast Binary 0.1536 0.1225 0.1513 0.1280
[0.0132] [0.0070] [0.0134] [0.0073]
Household in South Central Coast Binary 0.0650 0.0907 0.0579 0.0899
[0.0073] [0.0056] [0.0075] [0.0055]
Household in Central Highlands Binary 0.0772 0.0512 0.0885 0.0545
[0.0089] [0.0042] [0.0101] [0.0044]
Household in North East South Binary 0.1400 0.1640 0.1370 0.1638
[0.0129] [0.0087] [0.0133] [0.0086]
Household in Mekong River Delta Binary 0.1620 0.2205 0.1574 0.2099
[0.0111] [0.0084] [0.0117] [0.0081]
Household in Living in urban areas Binary 0.2138 0.2693 0.1999 0.2806
[0.0137] [0.0096] [0.0139] [0.0095]
Observations 832 3384 634 3582
Standard errors in parentheses.
Source: Estimation from VHLSSs 2004-2006.
Table A.2: Regressions of per capita expenditures
Explanatory variables OLS -
pooled Borrowing from informal sources -0.2053*** -0.0535*** -0.0087 -0.0887*** -0.0187* 0.0297**
[0.0180] [0.0126] [0.0143] [0.0135] [0.0112] [0.0129]
Proportion of members younger than 16 to total household members
-0.5320*** -0.4902*** -0.2284***
[0.0284] [0.0321] [0.0560]
Proportion of members older than 60 to total household members
-0.2120*** -0.2196*** -0.1843***
[0.0269] [0.0305] [0.0641]
Proportion of female members to total household members
-0.0337 -0.0729** -0.1062 [0.0285] [0.0318] [0.0657]
Household size -0.0372*** -0.0777*** -0.1563***
[0.0130] [0.0126] [0.0254]
Household size squared -0.002 0.0008 0.0066***
[0.0012] [0.0011] [0.0024]
Ratio of members with technical degree to total household members
0.7527*** 0.5466*** 0.1259**
[0.0338] [0.0365] [0.0586]
Ratio of members with post secondary to total household members
1.2640*** 0.9964*** 0.1351 [0.0477] [0.0593] [0.0948]
Area of annual crop land per capita (10000 m2)
0.2401*** 0.2298*** 0.2588***
[0.0306] [0.0330] [0.0495]
Area of perennial crop land per capita (10000 m2)
0.3599*** 0.3141*** 0.2086***
[0.0474] [0.0404] [0.0593]
Forestry land per capita (10000 m2) 0.005 -0.0337 -0.0846***
[0.0164] [0.0209] [0.0193]
Area of aquaculture water surface per capita (10000 m2)
0.4781*** 0.2673*** 0.0208 [0.0698] [0.0675] [0.0930]
Road to village (yes = 1) 0.0302* 0.0228 0.0033
[0.0156] [0.0166] [0.0203]
Distance to nearest daily market (km) -0.0107*** -0.0038*** 0.0003
[0.0012] [0.0013] [0.0012]
Red River Delta Omitted
North East -0.1293*** -0.1714***
[0.0172] [0.0279]
North West -0.3339*** -0.4463***
[0.0308] [0.0481]
North Central Coast -0.1823*** -0.1704***
[0.0183] [0.0275]
South Central Coast -0.0498** -0.0359
[0.0195] [0.0316]
Central Highlands -0.1583*** -0.1704***
[0.0278] [0.0441]
North East South 0.2610*** 0.1846***
[0.0210] [0.0330]
Mekong River Delta 0.0426** 0.0286
[0.0167] [0.0253]
Urban 0.3992*** 0.4366***
[0.0203] [0.0271]
Time effect (2006 variable) 0.1062*** 0.1191*** 0.1264***
[0.0106] [0.0070] [0.0075]
Constant 8.3163*** 8.2446*** 8.2814*** 8.3995*** 8.5235*** 8.8336***
Explanatory variables OLS -
(H0: Difference in coefficients in fixed and random effects regression not systematic)
43.7 (0.000)
315.0 (0.000) Robust standard errors in brackets.
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Source: Estimation from panel data VHLSSs 2004-2006.
Table A.3: Instrumental variables regressions of per capita expenditures
Explanatory variables Pooled
sample: IV Borrowing from informal sources 0.0983** 0.1034** 0.1002*** 0.1042*** 0.1271*** 0.1274***
[0.0415] [0.0413] [0.0371] [0.0369] [0.0457] [0.0445]
Proportion of members younger than 16 to total household members
-0.5581*** -0.5586*** -0.4994*** -0.4997*** -0.2295*** -0.2295***
[0.0278] [0.0278] [0.0302] [0.0302] [0.0555] [0.0555]
Proportion of members older than 60 to total household members
-0.2043*** -0.2038*** -0.2093*** -0.2090*** -0.1803*** -0.1803***
[0.0234] [0.0234] [0.0268] [0.0268] [0.0651] [0.0651]
Proportion of female members to total household members
-0.0367 -0.0368 -0.0715** -0.0715** -0.0926 -0.0926 [0.0263] [0.0263] [0.0300] [0.0300] [0.0671] [0.0671]
Household size -0.0447*** -0.0448*** -0.0801*** -0.0802*** -0.1593*** -0.1593***
[0.0103] [0.0103] [0.0109] [0.0109] [0.0254] [0.0254]
Household size squared -0.0013 -0.0013 0.0010 0.0010 0.0067*** 0.0067***
[0.0009] [0.0009] [0.0010] [0.0010] [0.0024] [0.0024]
Ratio of members with technical degree to total household members
0.7901*** 0.7902*** 0.5424*** 0.5422*** 0.1260** 0.1260**
[0.0330] [0.0330] [0.0321] [0.0321] [0.0521] [0.0521]
Ratio of members with post secondary to total household members
1.3173*** 1.3182*** 1.0082*** 1.0085*** 0.1457 0.1457 [0.0456] [0.0456] [0.0492] [0.0492] [0.0946] [0.0946]
Area of annual crop land per capita (10000 m2)
0.2273*** 0.2278*** 0.2379*** 0.2382*** 0.2559*** 0.2559***
[0.0318] [0.0318] [0.0331] [0.0331] [0.0484] [0.0484]
Area of perennial crop land per capita (10000 m2)
0.3956*** 0.3957*** 0.3123*** 0.3122*** 0.1990*** 0.1990***
[0.0408] [0.0408] [0.0396] [0.0396] [0.0580] [0.0580]
Forestry land per capita (10000 m2) 0.0080 0.0081 -0.0323 -0.0323 -0.0844*** -0.0844***
[0.0223] [0.0224] [0.0217] [0.0217] [0.0201] [0.0201]
Area of aquaculture water surface per capita (10000 m2)
0.4968*** 0.4971*** 0.2650*** 0.2649*** 0.016 0.016 [0.0860] [0.0860] [0.0795] [0.0795] [0.0912] [0.0912]
Road to village (yes = 1) 0.0307* 0.0306* 0.0217 0.0216 0.0036 0.0037
[0.0158] [0.0158] [0.0140] [0.0140] [0.0187] [0.0187]
Distance to nearest daily market (km) -0.0091*** -0.0091*** -0.0038*** -0.0038*** 0.0004 0.0004 [0.0009] [0.0009] [0.0008] [0.0008] [0.0009] [0.0009]
Red River Delta Omitted
Explanatory variables Pooled
North Central Coast -0.1484*** -0.1482*** -0.1659*** -0.1657***
[0.0186] [0.0186] [0.0239] [0.0240]
South Central Coast -0.0088 -0.0083 -0.0259 -0.0255
[0.0202] [0.0202] [0.0258] [0.0259]
Central Highlands -0.1460*** -0.1461*** -0.1734*** -0.1735***
[0.0245] [0.0245] [0.0311] [0.0311]
North East South 0.2046*** 0.2049*** 0.1914*** 0.1916***
[0.0189] [0.0189] [0.0242] [0.0242]
Mekong River Delta 0.0567*** 0.0570*** 0.0368* 0.0371*
[0.0168] [0.0168] [0.0211] [0.0211]
Urban 0.3916*** 0.3916*** 0.4396*** 0.4397***
[0.0186] [0.0186] [0.0201] [0.0201]
Time effect (2006 variable) 0.1206*** 0.1208*** 0.1242*** 0.1244*** 0.1309*** 0.1310***
[0.0102] [0.0102] [0.0064] [0.0064] [0.0071] [0.0071]
Constant 8.3674*** 8.3664*** 8.5008*** 8.5001***
[0.0377] [0.0378] [0.0401] [0.0402]
Observations 8432 8432 8432 8432 8432 8432
Number of households 4216 4216 4216 4216 4216 4216
Robust standard errors in brackets.
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Source: Estimation from panel data VHLSSs 2004-2006.
Table A.4: First-stage regressions of IV models
Explanatory variables Pooled
sample: IV Proportion of informal borrowers per
district (instrumental variable)
1.0029*** 1.0513*** 1.0008*** 1.0486*** 0.9648*** 1.0177***
[0.0320] [0.0351] [0.0325] [0.0356] [0.0611] [0.0650]
Proportion of informal borrowers per district * Proportion of members older than 60 to total household members (instrumental variable)
-0.4349*** -0.4279*** -0.4448**
[0.1290] [0.1306] [0.1994]
Proportion of members younger than 16 to total household members
0.0927*** 0.0918*** 0.0918*** 0.0909*** -0.0011 -0.0063 [0.0211] [0.0211] [0.0222] [0.0222] [0.0622] [0.0623]
Proportion of members older than 60 to total household members
-0.0875*** -0.0357 -0.0863*** -0.0354 -0.0334 0.0149 [0.0177] [0.0234] [0.0188] [0.0244] [0.0587] [0.0614]
Proportion of female members to total household members
Ratio of members with technical degree to total household members
-0.037 -0.0368 -0.0319 -0.0317 0.002 0.0036
[0.0254] [0.0254] [0.0262] [0.0262] [0.0531] [0.0531]
Ratio of members with post secondary to total household members
-0.1453*** -0.1438*** -0.1438*** -0.1424*** -0.1215 -0.1209 [0.0346] [0.0346] [0.0364] [0.0364] [0.0837] [0.0838]
Area of annual crop land per capita (10000 m2)
-0.0745*** -0.0756*** -0.0697*** -0.0707*** 0.0324 0.034 [0.0243] [0.0243] [0.0254] [0.0254] [0.0439] [0.0443]
Area of perennial crop land per capita (10000 m2)
-0.0099 -0.0073 -0.0045 -0.0019 0.0915 0.0962
[0.0314] [0.0314] [0.0324] [0.0324] [0.0592] [0.0594]
Forestry land per capita (10000 m2) -0.0252 -0.025 -0.0233 -0.0231 -0.0017 -0.0013 [0.0172] [0.0172] [0.0177] [0.0177] [0.0205] [0.0207]
Area of aquaculture water surface per capita (10000 m2)
-0.0284 -0.0298 -0.0222 -0.0237 0.0102 0.007
[0.0661] [0.0660] [0.0677] [0.0676] [0.1072] [0.1075]
Road to village (yes = 1) -0.0043 -0.0045 -0.0029 -0.0031 0.0163 0.0158
[0.0122] [0.0122] [0.0124] [0.0123] [0.0204] [0.0204]
Distance to nearest daily market (km) 0.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.0006 -0.0013 -0.0014 [0.0007] [0.0007] [0.0007] [0.0007] [0.0012] [0.0012]
Red River Delta Omitted
North East -0.0023 -0.0015 -0.0019 -0.0011
[0.0136] [0.0136] [0.0146] [0.0146]
North West -0.0248 -0.0232 -0.024 -0.0224
[0.0213] [0.0213] [0.0228] [0.0228]
North Central Coast 0.0056 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057
[0.0143] [0.0143] [0.0154] [0.0154]
South Central Coast -0.0065 -0.0068 -0.0067 -0.007
[0.0155] [0.0155] [0.0166] [0.0166]
Central Highlands -0.0018 -0.0032 -0.0023 -0.0036
[0.0188] [0.0188] [0.0202] [0.0202]
North East South -0.0146 -0.0143 -0.015 -0.0146
[0.0145] [0.0145] [0.0155] [0.0155]
Mekong River Delta -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0056 -0.0056
[0.0129] [0.0129] [0.0138] [0.0138]
Explanatory variables Pooled
Time effect (2006 variable) -0.0067 -0.0071 -0.0069 -0.0073 -0.0103 -0.0109
[0.0078] [0.0078] [0.0072] [0.0072] [0.0082] [0.0081]
Weak IV identification test: Cragg-Donald F statistic
(Ho: Instruments are weak)
882.2 497.4 372.2 188.9
Robust standard errors in brackets.
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Source: Estimation from panel data VHLSSs 2004-2006.
Table A.5: Tests on weak instruments and overidentification of IV, and endogeneity of formal credit IV regressions
Pooled sample: IV regression with two instruments (with
sampling weight)
Fixed effects panel data: IV regression with two instruments
(with sampling weight) Overidentification of IV: Hansen J statistic
(Ho: Instruments are valid) χ(1)= 1.313 Test of endogeneity of “borrowing from informal
sources”: Durbin-Wu-Hausman statistic (Ho: Informal borrowing is exogenous)
)