KNOWLEDGE BOX 2.3 WORLD ATLAS OF NATURAL DISASTER RISK

Peijing Shi, co- chairman of the international disaster research group Integrated Risk Governance (IRG) Project, proposes the framework of Regional Disaster Sys-tem Theory, which emphasises the spatial- Sys-temporal pattern of worldwide natu-ral disasters. Employing this framework, his team published the work “World atlas of natural disaster risk” in 2015 to facilitate visualising the spatial pattern of natural disaster risks as associated with natural environment, exposure and disaster loss. The work covers earthquake, volcanic eruption, flood, storm surge, sand- dust storm, tropical cyclone, heatwave, cold wave and wild fire. This atlas assesses global natural disaster risks by taking into account factors like natural environment stability, hazard intensity and probability, the vulnerability of the exposure, concurrent coping capacity of reducing hazard severity and vulner-ability, socioeconomic development level and global data incompleteness. It aims to support such disaster risk management endeavours like national and regional integrated disaster risk reduction planning, integrated risk governance strategic planning and sustainable development planning.

Source: Shi et al. (2015)

Risk and impact

Since the “impact” of previous disasters is observed and analysed to estimate “risk”, the use of these terms can be confusing. In this book, “ risk ” refers to the potential impact of a disaster faced by humans; it involves a level of uncertainty about the occurrences of events in the future. “ Impact ” refers to the actual damage or harm as a result of a disaster (UNISDR, 2009) (see Case Box 2.7).

The economic and human impacts of disasters are illustrated in Figure 2.12 , expressed in monetary loss (in US$) as well as the number of people affected and killed by disasters in the decade from 2005 to 2014 under the Hyogo Framework of Action, an international document on disaster risk reduction. These are the handful of common indicators for expressing the impact of disasters. They are useful for drawing comparisons and gross analysis at the macro level across countries, disaster types and population groups. But these indicators are not necessarily the most use-ful in guiding disaster response at the local level (see also Knowledge Box 2.3).

Emergency threshold

The concept of emergency threshold may be used to indicate if an accident or crisis may have reached a critical point that requires emergency response. Death rate or mortality rate is a typical measure to serve as such an indicator. Two types of mortality rates are most commonly used as the criteria for the emergency threshold:

• Crude mortality rate (CMR) : the mortality rate among people of all age groups due to all causes; and

• Under- 5 mortality rate (U5MR) : the mortality rate of live born babies before reaching age five per 1,000 live births.

How big an increase does the mortality rate have to show to constitute an “emergency”?

In a non- disaster situation, the crude mortality rate (CMR) of every country is assumed to be 0.5/per 10,000 people per day, while the under- 5 mortality rate (U5MR) is assumed to be 1/per 10,000 people per day. Toole and Waldman (1990) suggested the doubling of CMR, from 0.5 to 1/per 10,000 per day, or the doubling of U5MR from 1.0 to 2.0/per 10,000 people per day, as the emergency threshold. If the situation causes either one of the mortality rates to go beyond this threshold, it is declared as a “state of emergency”, and certain international and humanitarian aid or relief mechanisms should be activated. Likewise, the emergency status is removed when either of the mortality rates falls below this threshold. Figure 2.13 shows the emergency threshold as doubling the baseline crude mortality (see also Knowledge Box 2.4).

Controversies over the “emergency threshold”

Although policy makers and responders generally agree to the idea that establishing an emergency threshold can facilitate a warning response, the major controversies are over how an emergency threshold should be calculated. Table 2.3 summarises the mortality thresholds commonly used to defi ne emergency situations. Due to differ-ent demographic compositions, socio- economic developmdiffer-ent stages, epidemiological patterns and underlying health risks, the crude mortality rate (CMR) during non- disaster situations differs among countries. The regular CMR in certain countries during a non- disaster phase might have already exceeded the emergency thresh-old of other countries. For example, Darfur’s non- disaster CMR of 1.1 per 10,000 people per day in 2003 (Guha- Sapir & Degomme, 2005) is already far beyond the

Source: Guha- Sapir et al. (2009).

FIGURE 2.13 Emergency threshold

TABLE 2.3 Mortality thresholds commonly used to defi ne emergency situations

Agency Assumed baseline

CMR > 5: “major catastrophe”

(double for U5MR threshold) The Sphere Project Context-specifi c CMR/U5MR:

Sub-Saharan Africa: 0.44/1.14 Latin America: 0.16/0.19 South Asia: 0.25/0.59 Eastern Europe, Former Soviet Union: 0.30/0.20

Note: If baseline is not known, the Sphere goal is CMR < 1.

Source: Adapted from Checchi and Roberts (2005).

emergency threshold of countries such as Norway or Denmark. In response, some policy makers propose the adaptation of different thresholds according to differ-ent categorisations (income groups, regional foci, developmdiffer-ent stages). For example, categorised by region, CMRs in sub- Saharan Africa, Latin America, South Asia and Eastern Europe are different from each other, so their emergency thresholds would be different. However, this approach implies the ethically doubtful proposition that what may be a disaster in some countries would be considered “normal” in others . This might pose the ethical problem of valuing life and survival according to region.

In summary, major international organisations use the emergency threshold to determine whether a country is in an emergency situation. While the threshold may be set differently by different organisations, if an excessive increase in crude mortality rate and/or under- 5 mortality rate is observed, it generally implies that a country/situation is in a state of emergency.

KNOWLEDGE BOX 2.4 WHAT CAN BE OTHER MEASURES