— Policy interventions were instrumental in decoupling energy-related air pollution from economic growth in the past, and further interventions will determine future air quality.
— At the global scale, even full implementation and enforcement of current policies are unlikely to reduce present exposure [and health burden] from air pollution in the next 20 years. Improvements in North America, Europe and East Asia will be compensated by further deterioration in South Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
— Theoretically, a portfolio of ambitious policy interventions could bring ambient PM2.5 concentrations below the WHO air quality guideline in most parts of the world, except in
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...areas where natural sources (e.g. soil dust) contribute major shares to or even exceed the guideline value.
— Such a portfolio needs to involve (i) environmental policies focusing on pollution controls, (ii) energy and climate policies, (iii) policies to transform the agricultural production system, and (iv) policies to modify human food consumption patterns. None of these policy areas alone can deliver clean air, and interventions need to be coordinated across sectors.
— These policy interventions would require fundamental transformations of today’s practices in many sectors. They are visionary but considered likely to be technically achievable in the future. As they exceed current policy ambitions, their implementation would require strong political will.
— Political will could emerge from a solid understanding of the full range of benefits.
The policy package would avoid annually millions of premature deaths worldwide through drastic improvements in air quality and through healthier diets. It would reduce emissions that contribute to global temperature increase, alleviate distortions of the global nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, and enhance the protection of ecosystems and biodiversity. At the same time, policies would contribute to multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals and trigger transformations that are required for global long-term sustainability.
— Lowering emissions from agricultural activities will be critical for achieving clean air worldwide. The scientific understanding of the relevance of nitrogen emission reductions that has emerged over the last decade has not yet penetrated decision-making in many parts of the world, and possible measures often face strong resistance from interest groups. However, a focus on industrialized agriculture would provide competitive advantages to small and subsistence farmers. Also, some of the more advanced measures considered in the agricultural policy package reduce the greenhouse gas footprint of the agricultural sector as well.
Data accessibility. Data are accessible in the online version of IIASA’s Greenhouse gas—Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at). Data will be made available after acceptance of the paper. Key data are provided in the electronic supplementary material.
Authors’ contributions. M.A. coordinated work and drafted the article. G.K. conducted the atmospheric dispersion calculations and computed population exposure for the various scenarios. W.S. managed the database system and developed routines to compute emissions for the policy scenarios. Z.K. led the estimates of past and future PM and VOC emissions. W.W. specified the control measures for the agricultural and food policies. J.C.
and P.R. conducted the calculations of emissions of the energy system, and imported IEA energy scenarios into the GAINS model. L.H.-I. estimated the impacts of the policy packages on future CH4 emissions.
A.G.-S. was responsible for emission estimates from the waste sector. C.H. developed the gridded emission fields for all scenario and managed the data exchange with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. P.P.
focused on emissions from developing countries, especially from the non-conventional non-point sources.
J.B.-K. specialized on current and future emissions from the transport sector. F.W. estimated the emission control potentials for the various policy packages. R.S. managed the GAINS database system. H.F. and A.N. conducted the full atmospheric dispersion calculations with the EMEP chemistry-transport model of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, and transferred results to IIASA. L.C. and C.P. contributed to the development of the IEA energy scenarios, transferred data to GAINS and assisted in the interpretation of results.
Competing interests. We declare we have no competing interests.
Funding. IIASA’s modelling work was funded by core funds of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. In addition, the development of the air pollution scenarios has been supported by the European Union project ‘Action on Black Carbon in the Arctic’ (Commission Implementing Decision on the 2016 Annual Action programme for the Partnership Instrument). The contributions of the International Energy Agency (IEA) were funded through the IEA resources (this sentence needs to be refined before final publications). The contributions of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no) have been funded by the met.no.
Acknowledgements. We are grateful to GLOBIOM modellers, specifically to Andre Deppermann, for providing results of their diet scenario model runs.
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