16 kbit dyn.
1o6-
Costs 16 bit micropro-r---I
loo8 bit rnlcroprocessor
lo5 --
7 -1 kbit dyn. (MOS, RAM)
lo4 --
C cn
Functions 8
10'
--
0.1 jlo2 --
1 0.001
1662 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80
Year
FIGURE 2 IC semiconductor trends. Source: Ernst (1978).
million transistor functions per c h p in the early 1980s. For the systems engineer and the management of innovation this raises the question of how to use the efficiency potential which is created through such a com- ponent in the process automation sector.
Stage IV
T h s is the mature stage, where improvement innovations play a dominant role.
Incremental innovations especially become more and more impor- tant. These are the extensions of existlng technologies w h c h improve product performance, cost, or quality step by step.
Cost reduction and the increase of labor productivity are the maln results. For example, more than half the decrease in costs of the produc- tion of rayon over a period of years was traced to incremental mnova- tions. The findings were the same in stu&es about llght bulbs, hquid pro- pelled rocket engines. automobiles, and computer core memories (Utter- back 1979).
Whde production has become capital intensive and large scale, the implementation of major change in either product or process is very diffi- cult. It appears disruptive and challenges the existing structure of pro- duction and organization.
T h s makes these production units more and more vulnerable for alternative technical solutions, but this is also the last point a t which a new d r e c t i o n of producbon can be started.
Otherwse t h e production unit will sooner or later run into stagna- tion, "productIvlty dilemma" (Abernathy 1978), or "stalemate of technol- ogy" (Mensch 1975).
The lower flexibility of mature production units is often the reason why major manufacturers are not imtiators of basic product innovations In their branches For example, major manufacturers of mechamcal typewriters did not introduce the electric typewriter Few malor manufacturers of mechanical calculators are now manufacturing elec- tromc calculators And few manufacturers of vacuum tubes were suc- cessful in making the shift to transistors (Utterback 1979)
Stage Y
This is the "stage of crisis "
Production umts w h c h were not able t o respond creatively to the new circumstances and t h e new radical technolog~cal options will now t r y to hold their position through product differentiation, deslgn variations,
larger efforts in m a r k e t ~ n g and advertising, and through Improvement of the old technology But these are ineffectual efforts For example, under the pressure of electric incandescent lamps, the efficiency potential of gas llghting was completely absorbed
lmprovement or incremental innovations are now unable to compen- sate for the dimlnishng efficiency because of h g h e r resource and infras- tructure costs or the performance and cost advantages of new technolo- gies whlch have been ignored by the production umt
Production units w h c h have not been able to adopt the new product the Institut fur Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung in Nurenberg, Federal Republ~c of Germany T h ~ s 1s data f r o m 2266 technological changes withn 909 firms from four industrial branches (plastics, metalwork industry food industry, wood and furniture Industry) m the Federal Republic of Germany durlng the period 1970-1973 By the employment effect of innovation we mean the relationshp between workplaces created and eliminated because of technological change
The productivlty effect 1s the c o n t n b u h o n of the &fferent klnds of lnnovation to labor productivlty growth as a result of technological change
TABLE I I~lnovation cycle and nianagellle~lt requircn~ents - . - - - ---- . . - - -. - -- -. - - -- - - - - -- .- Take-off Rapid growth Maturation Saturation Crisis -. . . ... - -- - .. I Exa~rlple Liquid fuel Microelectronics Plastics Autonlobile Sliipbuilding engineering Z Dyna~nic efficiency Negative Very I~igh l ligh Medium Negative 3 Ahsol~ite benefits Negative High Very high I ligh Negative/low 4 Precloil~inatit type of change New es(ablislilnents Enlargements Total Prod~ict Capacity I in p~oduction modernization differentiation reduction, product and rationalization differentiation I 5 E~~~ploynic~~t effect Positive Positive Positive Negative Negative 6 lnvestnient Positive Positive Positive Negative Negative 7 Degree of teclinology change Product Very high High Medium Low Low Process Low Medium High Medium Low 8 Risk anticipation of the Very high Mediuni Low Medium Very high illatlagenlent -- -- . - - -- - - - - - -- - --
Figure 3 demonstrates t h a t basic and major improvement innova- tions have the h g h e s t employment effect, a n d a h g h contribution t o pro- ductivity growth too. Among t h e m the implementation of new products had t h e h g h e s t employment effect. It c r e a t e d 31.7 t i m e s more new work- ing places t h a n it eliminated. But its contribution t o labor productivity
60%
-. -
Employment effect&sic and major Improvement and incremental Incremental improvement innovation
innovation
and pseudo- innovation
FIGURE 3 The employment effect and the labor productivity effect of different kinds of inn*
vation. (Results of an investigation of 2260 technological changes within 909 firms in four indus- trial branches of the Federal Republic of Germany, 1970- 1973 .) I, implementation of new prod- ucts; Ex, extension of capacity; Q, new quality of products; C, con reduction innovation; IE, improvement of efficiency; SL, reduction on shortage of labor; Ssp, reduction on shortage of space; Wc, improvement of working conditions; R, replncrment of product equipment; SO, short- age of orders.
growth through technological change was relatively low -only 2.4%. Thls is a typical activity in the take-off stage of t h e innovation cycle. The extension of innovations - an activity in t h e rapid growth stage of t h e innovation cycle -is able t o contribute significantly t o labor productivity growth (29.6%) a n d is also able t o s e c u r e a high employment effect
production space is the employment effect positive again, for obvious rea-
80138.
But in other types of technical change due t o medium improvement and lncremental innovation, which occur in the fourth phase of the inno- vation cycle, the employment and productivity effects are very low. For example, the short-term reaction of a shortage of workers has an employ- ment effect of only - 3 . 3 ~ and a productivity effect of only 1.4%.
' h s proves our hypothesis that a low employment effect is not so much a result of the development of labor productivity -which is what some of our colleagues have claimed up to now -as the result of the dom- inance of medium improvement and incremental innovation in economic activities. This could also explain why, a t the present time, some of the industrially developed market economies are faced with both a decline in productivity growth rates and a h q h rate of unemployment.
CONCLUSIONS HIR NATIONAL INNOVATION POLICY