Joint Optimization for Acidification, AOT40 and AOT60 (Scenario D10)

6 Considering AOT40 and AOT0 Simultaneously

7.2 Joint Optimization for Acidification, AOT40 and AOT60 (Scenario D10)

At the end of this report, Scenario D10 explores the interaction of ozone- and acidification-related strategies. The joint analysis looks for a single solution for the combination of the following environmental targets:

• A 50% gap closure of AOT60, using the composite method to incorporate the meteorological variations of five years. For each grid cell the year with the lowest possible gap closure is excluded from the optimization, i.e., the 50% gap closure target must be achieved in four out of five years (Scenario D6);

• A minimum 10% improvement of the gap closure achieved by the CRP* scenario for the AOT40, with a minimum 15% gap closure compared to 1990 (Scenario D7);

• A 50% gap closure for acidification; however, the targets for three grids have been excluded for the reasons given above (Scenario D9).

The binding grids for the joint ozone-acidification scenario are shown in Figure 7.2. To a large extent, the grids that have most influence on the joint optimization solution are found in the same areas as for the individual problems. Binding grids for AOT60 are located in the UK, Portugal and Yugoslavia, with AOT40 binding grids being found in the Netherlands/Belgium/Germany, Italy, Greece and Ukraine. Acidification-related targets are seen to be most demanding in Northern Germany, Ireland and eastern Hungary.

Figure 7.2: Binding grid cells for the combined ozone/acidification scenario D10. The map indicates where after optimization the exposures of AOT40, AOT60 and acidification, respectively, are at or slightly below (indicated with brackets) the targets.

The following tables (Table 7.1 to Table 7.6) provide the detailed results for the joint optimization and compare them with the optimization outcomes for the three environmental problems treated separately. As to be expected from theory, the joint optimization is cheaper than the upper envelope of the individual problems. In this example it is found, however, that the cost saving is not dramatic (3%) and that relaxation of the most stringent reduction requirements is limited, although for individual countries the differences might be significant (Figure 7.3 and Figure 7.4). Further analysis will be necessary to study this effect in more detail (and particularly to identify the relation between the potential cost savings and the stringency of the environmental targets). Some preliminary explanations can be put forward:

• By their nature, acidification and ozone are not strongly interrelated problems.

• In terms of emission reductions, acidification could trade additional NO_x reductions against less SO₂ and/or NH₃ measures (or vice versa), and ozone (in the ‘linear’ region) could trade additional NO_x reductions against lower demand on VOC measures. This means that one unit of NO_x reduction must be balanced against SO₂, and NH₃ and VOC reductions. Major rearrangements would prove cost-efficient only if there were significant differences in marginal costs. After the optimizations for the individual problems (with sufficiently stringent environmental targets) such big differences are, however, already eliminated to a large extent.

In the ‘non-linear’ ozone region (particularly in the UK) there is the interesting effect that for the ozone objective the NO_x emissions are kept high. Ecosystems sensitive towards acidification, however, require large NO_x reductions, in clear contrast to the ozone objective.

The joint optimization could (a) keep NO_x high and compensate the excess acidity by additional measures for SO₂ and NH₃ emissions; or (b) reduce NO_x emissions as far as necessary to achieve the acidification targets, and compensate the additional ozone formation from these lower NO_x emissions by further VOC reductions. At least for this example the optimization tends more towards the second option. This can be explained by the facts that (a) the strong NO_x reductions required for acidification move the ozone system closer to the

‘linear’ behavior, where only modest additional VOC reductions are required to compensate for the ozone increase, (b) the high NO_x reductions are expensive (if not impossible) to compensate for by further SO₂ and NH₃ reductions, particularly since the binding grid for the acidification problem is located in Ireland, where the UK NH₃ emissions make only little contribution, and (c) the NO_x reductions also have a positive effect for downwind sites on the continent and relax the most expensive measures required there. For this particular example, the benefits to be gained downwind for the ozone abatement lead to slightly greater NO_x and VOC reductions than would result from the acidification interest alone.

Table 7.7 compares the areas of unprotected ecosystems in each country resulting from the acidification-related scenarios D9 and D10 with the situation in 1990 and with the CRP* and MFR scenarios. Considering all of Europe, the current emission reduction plans would be expected to reduce the total unprotected ecosystem area by 54%, with substantially better improvements in Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, France and Denmark. On the basis of the current data sets, the maximum feasible reductions would protect 96% of the total European ecosystem area unprotected in 1990.

In terms of the improvements in unprotected ecosystem area, there is very little difference between the acidification scenario D9 and the joint scenario D10. Both scenarios would expect to achieve an 81% reduction in the total European unprotected area compared to the CRP* scenario. Norway (52% improvement over CRP*) and Ireland (53% improvement) would fare worse than the average in this regard.

59 Table 7.1: NOx emissions for the scenarios targeted at acidification and ground-level ozone NOx emissions (kilotons)Change compared to 1990 CountryAOT60AOT40AcidificationminimumjointAOT60AOT40Acidificationmaximum CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D10CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9 Albania30303030303025%25%25%25%25% Austria155155145122122118-36%-36%-40%-50%-50% Belarus315277248297248261-22%-31%-38%-26%-38% Belgium222222222109109109-39%-39%-39%-70%-70% Bosnia-H616161575757-24%-24%-24%-29%-29% Bulgaria290290278290278284-18%-18%-21%-18%-21% Croatia8383838383830%0%0%0%0% Czech R.305305239150150149-42%-42%-54%-71%-71% Denmark134134134888888-51%-51%-51%-68%-68% Estonia727272727272-14%-14%-14%-14%-14% Finland203203177203177190-27%-27%-37%-27%-37% France791775652580580571-51%-52%-60%-64%-64% Germany181918191819979979979-39%-39%-39%-67%-67% Greece365365365365365365-7%-7%-7%-7%-7% Hungary196195196161161161-8%-9%-8%-25%-25% Ireland696969303030-36%-36%-36%-72%-72% Italy126012601260108410841260-37%-37%-37%-46%-46% Latvia1151151151151151151%1%1%1%1% Lithuania137137129126126123-9%-9%-15%-17%-17% Luxembourg121212888-43%-43%-43%-62%-62% Netherlands270270270190190190-50%-50%-50%-65%-65% Norway161161161161161161-30%-30%-30%-30%-30% Poland10049951004582582576-17%-18%-17%-52%-52% Portugal190120125190120121-9%-42%-40%-9%-42% R. of Moldova636363636363-28%-28%-28%-28%-28% Romania453401395373373365-12%-22%-23%-27%-27% Russia264226422504264225042530-24%-24%-28%-24%-28% Slovakia134127134102102101-35%-39%-35%-51%-51% Slovenia313131313131-48%-48%-48%-48%-48% Spain844722743673673629-28%-39%-37%-43%-43% Sweden247247247192192191-28%-28%-28%-44%-44% Switzerland10010084898483-38%-38%-48%-45%-48% FYRMacedonia292929292929-26%-26%-26%-26%-26% Ukraine109410811028109410281076-42%-43%-46%-42%-46% United Kingdom118611861186740740740-55%-55%-55%-72%-72% F.Yugoslavia147118147141118141-30%-44%-30%-33%-44% Atlantic Ocean9119119119119119110%0%0%0%0% Baltic Sea8080808080800%0%0%0%0% North Sea6396396396396396390%0%0%0%0% Total168591650216087138711348213710-32%-34%-36%-44%-46%

60 Table 7.2: VOC emissions for the scenarios targeted at acidification and ground-level ozone VOC emissions (kilotons)Change compared to 1990 CountryAOT60AOT40AcidificationminimumjointAOT60AOT40Acidificationmaximum CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D10CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9 Albania40403740373837%37%26%37%26% Austria305305305305305305-27%-27%-27%-27%-27% Belarus321320303321303318-5%-5%-10%-5%-10% Belgium220123138220123129-35%-64%-59%-35%-64% Bosnia-H58585858585829%29%29%29%29% Bulgaria152152152152152152-21%-21%-21%-21%-21% Croatia808080808080-9%-9%-9%-9%-9% Czech R.205162164205162172-27%-42%-42%-27%-42% Denmark108108108108108108-38%-38%-38%-38%-38% Estonia55555555555514%14%14%14%14% Finland108108108108108108-44%-44%-44%-44%-44% France166512539021665902978-30%-48%-62%-30%-62% Germany161611001192161611001099-48%-65%-62%-48%-65% Greece205195180205180190-31%-34%-39%-31%-39% Hungary143124142143124142-17%-28%-18%-17%-28% Ireland575757575757-40%-40%-40%-40%-40% Italy136511657491365749814-26%-37%-60%-26%-60% Latvia68686868686812%12%12%12%12% Lithuania767672767271-13%-13%-18%-13%-18% Luxembourg999999-51%-51%-51%-51%-51% Netherlands258151175258151162-45%-68%-62%-45%-68% Norway168168168168168168-37%-37%-37%-37%-37% Poland6875515586875515790%-20%-19%0%-20% Portugal144100115144100109-27%-49%-42%-27%-49% R. of Moldova606060606060-14%-14%-14%-14%-14% Romania553490483553483511-5%-16%-17%-5%-17% Russia283928022676283926762739-15%-16%-20%-15%-20% Slovakia113100113113100113-22%-31%-22%-22%-31% Slovenia252525252525-47%-47%-47%-47%-47% Spain794569648794569600-23%-45%-37%-23%-45% Sweden287287287287287287-36%-36%-36%-36%-36% Switzerland170170861708695-42%-42%-71%-42%-71% FYRMacedonia1515151515158%8%8%8%8% Ukraine671671671671671671-37%-37%-37%-37%-37% United Kingdom127682611751276826809-53%-69%-56%-53%-69% F.Yugoslavia10610610610610610610%10%10%10%10% Total150221264912240150221162612000-31%-42%-44%-31%-46%

61 Table 7.3: SO2 emissions for the scenarios targeted at acidification and ground-level ozone SO2 emissions (kilotons)Change compared to 1990 CountryAOT60AOT40AcidificationminimumjointAOT60AOT40Acidificationmaximum CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D10CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9 Albania525252525252-28%-28%-28%-28%-28% Austria787878505050-16%-16%-16%-46%-46% Belarus399399399139139141-53%-53%-53%-84%-84% Belgium215215215494949-32%-32%-32%-85%-85% Bosnia-H395395395333333-18%-18%-18%-93%-93% Bulgaria112711271127276276271-39%-39%-39%-85%-85% Croatia117117117181818-34%-34%-34%-90%-90% Czech R.632632632979797-66%-66%-66%-95%-95% Denmark909090191919-53%-53%-53%-90%-90% Estonia175175175175175175-36%-36%-36%-36%-36% Finland116116116116116116-51%-51%-51%-51%-51% France737737737221221221-43%-43%-43%-83%-83% Germany740740740336336337-86%-86%-86%-94%-94% Greece57057057057057057012%12%12%12%12% Hungary653653653285285285-28%-28%-28%-69%-69% Ireland155155155313131-14%-14%-14%-83%-83% Italy104210421042280280281-39%-39%-39%-84%-84% Latvia105105105105105105-14%-14%-14%-14%-14% Lithuania107107107404041-50%-50%-50%-81%-81% Luxembourg444333-71%-71%-71%-79%-79% Netherlands565656343434-72%-72%-72%-83%-83% Norway343434343434-37%-37%-37%-37%-37% Poland139713971397421421421-53%-53%-53%-86%-86% Portugal2942942942942942943%3%3%3%3% R. of Moldova919191919191-54%-54%-54%-54%-54% Romania976976976929292-27%-27%-27%-93%-93% Russia263526352635238223822382-48%-48%-48%-53%-53% Slovakia240240240656565-56%-56%-56%-88%-88% Slovenia373737141414-81%-81%-81%-93%-93% Spain211921192119201201201-5%-5%-5%-91%-91% Sweden878787777777-24%-24%-24%-33%-33% Switzerland303030303030-33%-33%-33%-33%-33% FYRMacedonia818181818181-24%-24%-24%-24%-24% Ukraine180718071807681681686-51%-51%-51%-82%-82% United Kingdom980980980173173173-74%-74%-74%-95%-95% F.Yugoslavia459459459454545-21%-21%-21%-92%-92% Atlantic Ocean385385385385385385-40%-40%-40%-40%-40% Baltic Sea434343434343-41%-41%-41%-41%-41% North Sea264264264264264264-40%-40%-40%-40%-40% Total195241952419524830283028307-50%-50%-50%-79%-79%

62 Table 7.4: NH3 emissions for the scenarios targeted at acidification and ground-level ozone NH3 emissions (kilotons)Change compared to 1990 CountryAOT60AOT40AcidificationminimumjointAOT60AOT40Acidificationmaximum CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D10CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9 Albania3333333333337%7%7%7%7% Austria9393938787881%1%1%-6%-6% Belarus163163163163163163-26%-26%-26%-26%-26% Belgium96969670707012%12%12%-18%-18% Bosnia-H232323232323-25%-25%-25%-25%-25% Bulgaria126126126126126126-10%-10%-10%-10%-10% Croatia383838373737-6%-6%-6%-8%-8% Czech R.1241241249494948%8%8%-18%-18% Denmark103103103555555-18%-18%-18%-56%-56% Estonia2929292929290%0%0%0%0% Finland232323232323-45%-45%-45%-45%-45% France668668668439439441-4%-4%-4%-37%-37% Germany539539539299299299-27%-27%-27%-60%-60% Greece767676767676-2%-2%-2%-2%-2% Hungary13713713798989724%24%24%-11%-11% Ireland1261261261221221222%2%2%-1%-1% Italy3863863863803803801%1%1%-1%-1% Latvia292929292929-26%-26%-26%-26%-26% Lithuania8181818181812%2%2%2%2% Luxembourg666666-12%-12%-12%-12%-12% Netherlands828282828282-64%-64%-64%-64%-64% Norway2323232323230%0%0%0%0% Poland5465465464794794808%8%8%-5%-5% Portugal848484848484-8%-8%-8%-8%-8% R. of Moldova4747474747471%1%1%1%1% Romania3013013012352352354%4%4%-19%-19% Russia894894894894894894-30%-30%-30%-30%-30% Slovakia535353535353-13%-13%-13%-13%-13% Slovenia202020202020-13%-13%-13%-13%-13% Spain345345345345345345-2%-2%-2%-2%-2% Sweden535353535353-14%-14%-14%-14%-14% Switzerland585858585858-6%-6%-6%-6%-6% FYRMacedonia151515151515-11%-11%-11%-11%-11% Ukraine649649649649649649-11%-11%-11%-11%-11% United Kingdom270270270214214214-17%-17%-17%-34%-34% F.Yugoslavia838383838383-8%-8%-8%-8%-8% Total642264226422560456045607-13%-13%-13%-24%-24%

63 Table 7.5: Emission control costs for SO2 and NH3 (in million ECU/year) CostsAdditional costs on top of CRP* SO2CostsAdditional costs on top of CRP* NH3 CountrySO2AOT60AOT40AcidificationmaximumjointNH3AOT60AOT40Acidificationmaximum CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D10CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9 Albania10000010000 Austria214004242424001717 Belarus290097979600000 Belgium240003153153152200327327 Bosnia-H30099999900000 Bulgaria1290014214214400000 Croatia470050505000000 Czech R.244002132132131009595 Denmark91001661661654100379379 Estonia00000000000 Finland20200000340000 France11050021521521510012791279 Germany25350021132113208600017711771 Greece3270000000000 Hungary15300147147147000264264 Ireland7600929292206009393 Italy15820028428428300011 Latvia00000000000 Lithuania00030303000000 Luxembourg1000444120000 Netherlands199008282827630000 Norway490000000000 Poland89200451451451000182182 Portugal1210000000000 R. of Moldova70000010000 Romania14000284284284000235235 Russia9220072727110000 Slovakia760072727220000 Slovenia560011111100000 Spain45400576576576920000 Sweden22700171716160000 Switzerland740000050000 FYRMacedonia00000000000 Ukraine3830039539539200000 United Kingdom84300113311331133000328328 F.Yugoslavia00026226226200000 Atlantic Ocean23100000 Baltic Sea2600000 North Sea15900000 Total118480073647364733112020049714971

64 Table 7.6: Emission control costs for NOx and VOC and the sum for all pollutants (in million ECU/year) CostsAdditional costs on top of CRP* NOx and VOCTotal costsAdditional costs on top of CRP* All pollutants CountryNOx and VOCAOT60AOT40AcidificationMaximum(1) jointAOT60AOT40Acidificationmaximumjo CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D10CRP*D6D7D9D6, D7, D9D1 Albania1200010140001 Austria6260327273684403868693 Belarus1733133153073398130111 Belgium83190533564484311094905399810901067 Bosnia-H0000103009910099 Bulgaria130404214204142146146 Croatia5000005200505050 Czech R.37711291962092106231129504517515 Denmark3170090908844900635635623 Estonia10000010000 Finland449070836850708 France4802249674452102910165908249674194625232481 Germany63064893341941243524418841489334582563196290 Greece5053100105832310010 Hungary3266041474247960452458460 Ireland1890071727047100256257252 Italy46243968308145006206396832851099784 Latvia00000000000 Lithuania003236003323336 Luxembourg51007777200111111 Netherlands117415791550706672213715791632788754 Norway422000004710000 Poland928322636840240218203226100110351030 Portugal82831517303152409493151730315240 R. of Moldova400000120000 Romania014182434341401418543553559 Russia00560583592305672130106 Slovakia2702021232134820939593 Slovenia770000013200111111 Spain2992186113762342533538186113652810829 Sweden88600474748112900646464 Switzerland5260118811710060501188117100 FYRMacedonia00000000000 Ukraine76119107010726114419107395502418 United Kingdom4878150018213552857298457211500182281643184439 F.Yugoslavia041034130410265303265 Atlantic Ocean0000002310000 Baltic Sea000000260000 North Sea0000001590000 Total33182316027175636101779690462323160271717971225122193 Note 1): This column lists the costs for NOx and VOC measures. Therefore this column is not always identical with the maximum costs for the individual scenarios, which relate, depending on the scenario, som to NOx or VOC measures only.

Table 7.7: Area of ecosystems with deposition above their critical loads for acidification (in 1000 hectares)

(acid.) (Ozone+acid) Country

1990 CRP* D9 D10 MFR

Albania 0 0 0 0 0

Austria 2902 1452 496 504 263

Belarus 160 17 0 0 0

Belgium 475 292 15 15 5

Bosnia-H 132 131 0 0 0

Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0

Croatia 487 451 0 0 0

Czech R. 2449 1605 115 115 68

Denmark 229 39 9 9 4

Estonia 292 108 10 10 0

Finland 5619 2175 791 786 176

France 3164 395 27 27 9

Germany 7344 3767 401 404 211

Greece 0 0 0 0 0

Hungary 1085 901 192 192 183

Ireland 249 196 92 92 76

Italy 1218 720 151 155 35

Latvia 40 0 0 0 0

Lithuania 11 0 0 0 0

Luxembourg 68 45 7 7 2

Netherlands 285 150 20 20 15

Norway 7811 4221 2021 2020 1337

Poland 4889 1050 54 54 39

Portugal 1 1 0 0 0

R. of Moldova 0 0 0 0 0

Romania 641 467 33 33 6

Russia 18234 9739 870 869 34

Slovakia 1537 732 15 15 10

Slovenia 454 138 12 13 3

Spain 81 64 0 0 0

Sweden 6136 1576 630 630 427

Switzerland 392 206 53 54 27

FYRMacedonia 0 0 0 0 0

Ukraine 955 209 25 24 5

United Kingdom 4001 1650 251 251 142

F.Yugoslavia 2 2 0 0 0

Total 71343 32499 6290 6299 3077

Figure 7.3: Change in NO_x emissions for the combined scenarios

Figure 7.4: Change in VOC emissions for the combined scenarios

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

Albania Belarus Bosnia-H Croatia Denmark Finland Germany Hungary Italy Lithuania Netherlands Poland R. of Moldova Russia Slovenia Sweden FYRMacedonia United Kingdom

CRP* D6 (AOT60) D7 (AOT40) D9 (Acidification) D10 (Joint)