International migration and demographic change

From the end of World War 2 until the early 1980s, with the exception of the peak years of immigration at the beginning and end of the 1960s (which preceded the passing of the

Immigration Acts of 1962 and 1968), the number of emigrants exceeded the numbers migrating to the UK. Immigration from the New Commonwealth started in the late 1940s and reached a peak in the late 1950s and early 1960s (Figure 1.2). Immigration from the Caribbean was largely curtailed by the Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962, while the Immigration Act of 1971 had a similar effect upon primary immigration from the Indian sub-continent (Salt 1996), though the migration of dependants continued. The migration of people from Pakistan and Bangladesh in search of work ended later and the migration of family members from these countries has also lasted longer than the corresponding flows from India and the Caribbean.

(There is also a continuing in-flow of fiancés and newly-married spouses for some (mainly South Asian) ethnic groups.)

New flows of migrants developed during the 1980s and 1990s. Initially these flows comprised Chinese (mainly from Hong Kong) and Black-African people (many of whom arrived as students) together with students from other parts of South East Asia. This was followed by the arrival of increasing numbers of asylum-seekers (predominantly from Africa, the Middle East and countries such as Sri Lanka). The revival in net immigration from the New Commonwealth is shown in Figure 1.3, which illustrates both the doubling in the number of immigrants and the decline in the number of emigrants.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

i i

i i ion ( ) i ion ( )

Thousands Im m grants

Em grants Net m m grat IPS Net Im m grat HO

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Figure 1.2 Migration from the New Commonwealth to the UK, 1955-1980

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Figure 1.3 Migration to the UK from the New Commonwealth, 1981-1999

Since the early 1980s, the UK has gained population each year through net international migration. The total number of emigrants has remained fairly constant, but the annual number of immigrants has followed a rising trend, and hence the volume of net immigration has steadily increased. Annual net immigration was around 50 thousand during most of the 1980s and early 1990s, peaked at 100 thousand in the late 1980s and 1990s, but exceeded 100 thousand in the late 1990s, reaching 189 thousand in 1998-99 (this includes the substantial growth in the number of asylum-seekers entering the UK). In total, there was a net gain to the UK population of some 1.2 million people between 1981 and 1999 (Dobson and McLaughlan, 2001, 30).

There has been increased migration from both the Old and New Commonwealths and the rest of the European Union during the 1990s, but also a substantial increase in migration from the rest of the world. Figure 1.4 demonstrates that the latter has increased faster than other geographical sources of immigration during the last decade and is now the largest component of net immigration. This increase coincides with the increase in the number of asylum-seekers (experienced by all European countries), but there is clearly an economic influence on this migration flow, since the peaks in migration from the rest of the world (in the late 1980s and late 1990s) coincide with periods of very high UK economic growth. This upward trend in international migration also reflects the falling costs of international travel and increased recruitment of overseas students.

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Briti EU

Ol l

Net migration sh i

d Commonwea th New Commonwealth Other Fore gn

Figure 1.4 Net migration to the UK by citizenship

In the 2000-based set of population projections from the Government Accounting Office, the population of the UK is projected to reach 64.7 million in 2025. These projections assume that annual net immigration will be 135 thousand for most of this period, accounting for two-thirds of total population growth (3.4 million people). However, migration trends are very difficult to forecast, and hence projections of future population are subject to extreme uncertainty.

Different migrant ethnic groups have entered the UK at different period in time. Table 1.2 presents the percentages of all persons from each ethnic group present in the UK during 1998­

2000 who entered the country before 1970, from 1970 to 1989 and from 1990 onwards,

alongside the percentage of each ethnic group born in the UK. Just over half of all people from minority ethnic groups were born in the UK. Persons of mixed parentage (Black – Mixed and Other –Mixed) are most likely to have been born in the UK, together with the Black-Other ethnic group (mainly people of Caribbean parentage who prefer to describe themselves as

“Black British”). The percentage of Black people born in the UK is greater than that of the South Asian or “Chinese and Other” ethnic groups, but only just over a third of Black-African people are UK-born.

Table 1.2 Percentage born in the UK, or entering the UK in each time period, 1998-2000

Source : Labour Force Survey, average for Spring 1998 to Winter 2000/1

This table highlights the recent increase in migration to the UK, fuelled by demand for labour and the increased availability of migrant labour (stimulated by economic crises and wars in countries of origin, greater awareness of employment opportunities in the developed world and the dramatically falling cost and increasing ease of international travel). These migration flows have been focussed upon London, where increasing incomes have caused a house price boom which has made it difficult for people to migrate from other parts of the UK to take up low-paid jobs in the public sector and service sector industries. Seasonal and short-term legal migrants and people working on student visas have provided labour for employers often paying less than the national minimum wage. Unemployed people in London have been deterred from competing for these jobs by the very low wages on offer, while illegal and irregular workers accept a much poorer standard (which is hence much cheaper) of accommodation. In addition, managers in the public sector have recruited experienced workers from overseas in order to meet the performance targets set by the government for public sector services, and consequently the number of work permits issued has massively increased since 1997.

Illegal and irregular immigration has also increased greatly as unscrupulous employers in construction and agriculture have recruited such workers to jobs paid at below minimum wage.

These workers and the “gangmasters” providing labour to employers seek to avoid official

regulation, and the substantial flows of short-term and seasonal workers are not counted by any official statistical exercise. Food processing and packing have recently become notorious as sectors in which these practices are extremely common.

There are few statistics on less visible minority ethnic groups such as gypsies, Roma,

“showmen” or “travellers” (Irish or otherwise). Official statistical data collection exercises tend to miss people without permanent addresses and smaller ethnic groups are not reported in published output, because the numbers involved are so small that publication may involve infringement of confidentiality while comparisons based on such small numbers are not statistically significant and are therefore not published. Levels of education are low, as is health quality and people from these ethnic groups tend to be self-employed, working as contractors in construction, agriculture and dealing. The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister monitors the number of permanent and semi-permanent traveller sites and the number of caravans they can accommodate. The “traveller” population of the UK is estimated at 120,000 to 150,000 of which around 50% now live in houses (Morris and Clements 1999; Kenrick and Clark 1999). In July 2001 the DETR count showed 13,802 caravans in England, 44.9% on authorised council sites, 30.8% on authorised private sites and 24.2% on unauthorised sites elsewhere.