As a result, it is expected that sorne areas, each inhabited by a particular ethnic group, will have more information than others. The propensity for households in any one area t o dispatch mernbers t o particular urban destinations will vary directly with the extent of information available in each area. As proposed by Huntington and cited previously, commercial contact with an urban center is likely to be a prime source of information in an area about that town or city.
In addition t o such general information, specific information about a possible migra- tion destination may be available t o a household from kin who live o r have lived there.
Reliance on such personal sources provides extensive information on one o r several des- tinations but does n o t ensure that the household is well informed o n all possible destina- tions. As a result, a move may be less than optimal for a household, or a decision may be reached not t o move.
Given the important role of information in migration it is t o be expected that some households will seek information from impersonal sources as well. Such a search provides the possibility of obtaining information on a larger range of destinations, serves as a means of verifying information drawn from personal sources, and can provide more information about a destination than the kin who were resident there.
For the purposes of this study we will designate as passive the migrants who drew primarily o n personal information sources. Conversely, the men who relied primarily on impersonal information sources will be designated active migrants. There is n o reason t o believe that households that dispatch active migrants have access to less information of a personal nature than households that dispatch passive migrants.
A second important aspect of the migration selection process is the distribution of skills both within and among households. In general. skills obtained from schooling tend t o
be significantly better paid in urban locations than in rural areas. Therefore, the incentive to acquire information about urban possibilities and t o move to an urban location will vary directly with the amount of schooling. In contrast, skills learned "by doing" in rural areas have a known payoff there but not necessarily a significantly higher return in urban areas.
Since experience is gained over time, persons with such skills are likely t o be somewhat older and an urban job search will have larger opportunity costs for them than for school- leavers. Hence skills gained in rural areas need not be transferable t o an urban location.
In addition, the probability of obtaining employment in an urban center will vary directly with the level of schooling completed by prospective migrants. First, their proba- bility of being selected in the urban employment lottery will vary directIy with the amount of schooling. In part this reflects the use by employers of schooling as an indicator o f work habits and the capability of learning more. Second, the better educated can always turn t o lower-skill jobs should they fail t o get the better employment opportunities, while the less well educated d o not have a corresponding range of options.
Beyond these economic effects of education, i t is t o be expected that education affects the values and aspirations of the migrants. Hutton (1973, pp. 71 -72) describes the better educated in her sample as follows: "What they wanted was a good life and for this they felt they had t o have urban jobs which would bring them a steady income and utilize their capacities t o the full. They felt an aversion t o agriculture only t o the extent that they thought they could d o better in unskilled urban work than they could in any capacity in the village." This effect of education can be incorporated into Figure 1.1 by a shift up and t o the left of the YY llne which, in turn, would shift .
PP'
in Figure 1.2 upward.A t h r d aspect of the migration selection process is the role of age. In general, it is t o be expected that young adults will be most prone t o migrate t o urban areas (Mitchell 1969, p. 178). In part, this reflects the differences between rural residents in the time they have t o collect the difference in expected income from urban and rural jobs. Since this time varies inversely with age, the young adults have a greater incentive t o move. Also, the degree t o w h c h the future is discounted tends t o vary directly with age (Zucker 1967, pp. 538--540). Both of these factors will make the young more willing t o consider the better paying, but higher risk, urban employment opportunities.
Also, farming as a direct income source for young men becomes a viable alternative only when the father provides the land. For some this may occur when they marry; for others only on the death of their father. In the meantime, urban employment opportuni- ties, even in low paying jobs, hold o u t considerably better prospects for the young men than what is available t o them in the rural areas as either an employee o r merely another member on the family farm (Hutton 1973, p. 7 1 ; Elkan 1970, p. 520).
Another hypothesis is that time spent in an urban center may carry a degree ofpres- tige bordering on initiation into manhood (evidence on the subject is summarized by Gugler (1969, p. 137), although he does not lend support t o the argument). This explanation implies that the urban stay probably will be temporary and it reduces the importance of differences between age groups in the length of time horizons o r rates of discount of the future.
In their study of urbanization in Africa, Hanna and Hanna (1971, pp. 2 7 and 4 4 ) propose a combination of these possible determinants. Placing primary emphasis on the economic determinants, they also note the social compulsion of the younger generation t o defer t o the elders. Therefore, ambitious youths need t o migrate t o the towns in order t o obtain the freedom t o realize their ambitions.
A fourth element in the migration selection process is the considerably higher pro- pensity for males to migrate to an urban location than for females. In part this reflects the important role women play in much of East Africa in the agricultural endeavors of a household. Also, it may reflect discrimination against women in the urban employment lottery. But, for the women who choose t o migrate it is n o t obvious that the motivation of women is markedly different from that of men. Beds et al. (1967, p. 486) found that their migration model explained the interdistrict movement of females as well as males.
This result is t o be expected if migration decisions have firm roots in a household decision- making process.
A fifth element is the role of kin in a city or town. We have noted previously that kith provide information and reduce the costs of migration. It follows that the households that are able t o draw o n the assistance of kin already resident in an urban area are better able and hence more likely than other rural residents t o move t o that area.
Why certain communities have established kin in an urban center while others have n o t is difficult t o explain a t any point in time. In part it reflects rural and urban condi- tions a t some previous time period that were sufficiently conducive t o migration that an urban "beachhead" was established. Further, the kinship structure in a village has some bearing on migration propensities.
Certain structures encourage and facilitate migration . . . . Traditions of village exogamy and group endogamy clearly promote high rates of total migration.
Labour migration is facilitated and may be encouraged by extended families, or by kinship structure which allows exchange between families t o take place (Connell et al. 1976, p. 52).
When all of these aspects of the migration selection process are drawn together, household income levels can be seen t o determine which rural households are likely to provide urban in-migrants. First, the availability of information is a function of the com- mercial interaction with one or more urban centers. Second, the ability t o educate the children is dependent o n the availability of income. Third, a household's income may well reflect that some members already employed are in an urban destination. Yet, some of the poorer families may beconie involved as well. Especially for younger brothers in a household with limited land, it may become clear a t an early age that it is imperative for the111 t o strive for an alternative income source if they are to have the opportunity of improving their standard of living.
The Determinants of the Term of Migration
The remaining factor that a migration model must identify is the length of the move.
Historically, the parts of East and Central Africa influenced significantly by European settlement have been known for their labor circulation (Mitchell 1959; Mitchell 1969).
In this system the migrant viewed the urban setting in instrumental terms only - a place t o earn income - and he returned "home" periodically for extended lengths of time. Given the prominent role of women in agricultural production, the men could be absent for extended terms of 2 t o 3 years. Weisner's survey (1 972), based on a small sample drawn
from one part of Nairobi and one sublocation in Western Province, presents evidence that such circulation was still occurring recently.
While such circulation has not disappeared completely, there is a growing consensus that the urban employment situation has been changing dramatically during the latter part of the 1960s (e.g., Elkan 1970, p. 5 18;Gugler 1969, p. 147). Elkan provides several reasons for this tendency toward a more permanent urban labor force: (1) a substantial gap has developed between urban and rural earning possibilities; (2) current school-leavers have different motives for urban in-migration from those of the previous generation of migrants;
and (3) the competition for the urban jobs has increased t o the point that the employed can hardly afford t o give up their jobs. Gugler places primary emphasis on the third reason.
This growing permanence in the urban labor force raises the question of who is return- ing periodically or regularly to the rural areas and who is remaining in the urban labor force. In general, one would expect the length of stay t o vary directly with the level of skills of an urban resident. The skills serve t o increase the income that the person is likely t o earn, and hence raise her/his opportunity cost of returning once more t o a rural alter- native. In addition, the skills increase significantly the probability of the person's being selected for the better paying urban jobs. That this is occurring is indicated by the survey carried out by Thias and Carnoy (1 969 Annex, Table 4.9 and p. 61) who found labor turn- over t o be higher among the better educated than among those with less schooling. They interpret this result as an indication that the better educated could afford t o change em- ployers because the competition for the jobs requiring advanced skills was not as high as for low-skilled employment.
Another explanation of who stays and who returns is the finding by Hutton (1 973, pp. 62-63) that the unemployed based their possibility o f a return t o a rural area primarily on their perception of what specific rural alternatives were available t o them. This result is consistent with Weisner's survey. Where the in-migrants fail t o obtain satisfactory urban employment or lose their job, they make another evaluation of the prospects in the urban location and the rural home area. For some heads of households who had migrated the rural prospects may now appear more favorable - possibly because
f
has been dampened or altered by the urban experience, perceptions of the urban earnings prospects have been scaled downward, or because skills obtained and money saved in the urban employment will increase earning possibilities at home (PP' shifts t o the right). Thus, they return home.For others, the evaluation of prospects will result in a decision toremain longer or possibly move t o another urban center where income and employment prospects (less the costs of moving) are perceived t o be better than in the current location.
Arnin (1974, p. 66) proposes yet a third possible determinant of eventual return migration. He distinguishes between movement of labor and movement of people. The former involves migrants entering "
. . .
a receiving society that is already organized and structured. There, they acquire a generally inferior status as workers or share-croppers."One form of such differentiation is the urban center designed for the higher-income groups.
Those below the median income level cannot afford t o participate fully, as a family ,in this setting. Such a failure t o be integrated into the social, economic, and political fabric of the receiving area will certainly provide an incentive for eventual return, at least if reasonable income earning prospects can be developed there with income earned while employed. On the other hand, people who become a fully accepted part of the receiving society will not have a similar "push" out of their urban residence to a more hospitable rural home. The
failure to be integrated into the destination area and the pull back to the social network of the home area have been modeled by Mitchell (1959).
SUMMARY OF HYPOTHESES
The discussion of the household's migration decision-making process can be sum- marized formally in several sets of hypotheses. These hypotheses serve as the analytical basis for the total study. Where possible, the hypotheses presented here are drawn together in Chapter 4 in two different but related aggregate models of migration. In addition to the test of these models presented in Chapter 4 , attempts will be made to apply and test these hypotheses throughout the discussion of the survey results in Chapters 5 to 10.
The first set of hypotheses seeks t o explain the decision by households t o allocate labor to an alternative location.
I I l .l The probability of a decision to leave the local community will vary directly with the level of aspirations
?9'
of a household.H1.2 The level of aspirations of a household will be shaped by the community in which the household is located. The level of aspirations will vary directly with: (1) the extent of social and commercial interaction of the community with external areas; and (2) the extent of inequality in the distribution of income and wealthin the local community.
t11.3 The level of aspirations of a household will be shaped by its attempts t o accumulate human capital. The level of aspirations will vary directly with: (1) the formal education obtained by members of a household; and (2) the need for young people to go t o an urban center to obtain their schooling.
HI .4 The probability of a decision t o leave the local community ?ill vary inversely with a household's ability to generate the income Y equal to the income Y required to ful- fill its aspirations.
H1.5 A household's ability t o generate income will vary directly with: (1) the access of the household t o the productive resources of the community; (2) the access of the community to ready markets for the output that can be produced in the community;
(3) the prices paid for the output; (4) the level of productive, locally useful skills possessed by household members; (5) the number of employment opportunities in the community and the remuneration
9
received for such work; and ( 6 ) the ability of the household t o enlploy new technology and labor-augmenting capital goods.H1.6 The probability of a decision t o leave the local community will vary directly with the household's perception of possible economic returns (Pk) from opportunities elsewhere. Such perceptions will vary directly with: ( I ) the economic opportunities avail- able elsewhere; (2) the remuneration Wk for these opportunities; (3) the term and stability of these opportunities; (4) the commercial interaction with alternative locations with rela- tively attractive economic opportunities; (5) the extent of previous migration from the clan (or community) t o alternative locations; and (6) the formal schooling of household members of the type that carries returns elsewhere but not locally.
H1.7 The probability of a decision to leave the local community will vary directly with the ability of a household to bear the cost of migration,job search,and establishment in another location.
H1.8 The probability that a male member of a household will decide to leave a community will depend on his access to the household's assets: (1) where use of land is controlled by the father until his death, sons will, at least temporarily, seek economic opportunities elsewhere; (2) where all male children inherit equal amounts of land and the total amount is small, the men will be more prone t o look elsewhere when they come of age because they will see little future on their father's farm; and (3) where the oldest son inherits the family land younger brothers will seek opportunities elsewhere when they come of age.
H1.9 The probability that a female member of a household will decide to leave a community will vary inversely with the role of women in agricultural production.
H1.10 The probability of a decision to leave a local community will depend on the kinship structure. The extent of out-migration will vary directly with traditions of com- munity "exogamy" and the practice of group endogamy within the clan.
The second set of hypotheses seeks t o explain, for those who choose to move, the selection of an urban rather than a rural destination.
H2.1 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary directly with expected
Pk
which will be a function of: (1) the income (relative to rural income possibili- ties) perceived t o be available there; (2) the perceived probability of obtaining such an income; and (3) the availability of kin there who will share the costs of the move and assist in the job search.H2.2 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary inversely with:
(1) the availability of land elsewhere to which the household can gain access; and (2) the commercial viability of such land.
H2.3 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary inversely with:
(1) the level of income available from employment opportunities in rural areas;and(2) the length of term and the security of such jobs.
H2.4 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary directly with the ability of a household to bear the higher (relative t o rural alternatives) costs of a job search and establishment in an urban location.
H2.5 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary directly with the perceived earning possibilities in the urban informal sector.
H2.6 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary inversely with the nature and extent of amenities in rural areas and directly with the nature and extent of amenities in the urban centers.
H2.7 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary directly with the information about urban destinations available to a household. The availability of such information will vary directly with (1) the previous movement by kin to urban areas; and (2) the commercial interaction with urban centers.
H2.8 Households that actively seek information on employment and income con- ditions across a range of possible destinations are expected t o realize a higher return from a rural-to-urban move than households that passively channel members to the locations where family members or close kin (friends and relatives) are resident.
H2.9 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary directly with the schooling of household members.
H2.10 The probability of selecting an urban destination will vary inversely with the age of adults in a household.
H2.11 The probability of selecting a particular urban destination will vary directly with the cultural, social, and linguistic similarity between the urban center and the rural source area.
H2.12 The probability of selecting a particular urban destination will vary directly with the number and variety of jobs available there.
H2.13 Where the perceived urban income Wk is inadequate to enable a household to forego rural food production and to support the family in an urban setting, the proba- bility of a rural-to-urban move by a household member will vary directly with the number of adult members in a household's labor force.
H2.14 The probability that a female member of a household will select an urban destination will vary inversely with the discrimination against females in the urban formal
H2.14 The probability that a female member of a household will select an urban destination will vary inversely with the discrimination against females in the urban formal