WHICH INDUSTRIES ARE LIKELY TO UNDERGO MAJOR EMPLOYMENT

TRANSFORMATIONS: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

4.3. WHICH INDUSTRIES ARE LIKELY TO UNDERGO MAJOR EMPLOYMENT

TRANSFORMATIONS?

So far, evidence for job gains has been sought in narrowly defined employment categories, particu-larly renewable energy and other EGSS. Yet green transformations go along with technological change and shifts in relative prices that affect demand for labour and skill requirements in virtually all industries. Effects may be direct and indirect, and the outcomes in terms of job quan-tity and quality may be positive or negative, all of which is difficult to predict.

The magnitude of the employment challenge in green transformation can be estimated by deter-mining the share of workforce in carbon-inten-sive sectors. People working in these sectors will have to go through some transition. Either these carbon-intensive sectors become greener through technological change such as an energy sector shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy or the respective sector will have to shrink. In the first case, workers in these sectors are likely to have to adapt or modify their skills and working meth-ods, or to change enterprises. In the second case, workers find fewer jobs in the sector and have to move to other, greener sectors. The same applies to other unsustainable activities if environmental policies provide the respective signals, such as agricultural subsectors that deplete soil fertility and water or reduce biodiversity.

To estimate this challenge, exemplified for the decarbonisation challenge, this section utilizes data from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The database has been constructed by merging information from National Input-Out-put tables and Socio-Economic Accounts for the period 1995 to 2011, along with Environmental Accounts in the years 1995 to 2009. Using CO₂

intensity as a metric, it can be seen that most GHGs originate from just a few industries. Top carbon-emitting sectors are similar in all 40 coun-tries for which data are available and include the

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energy sector, agriculture, transport, and heavy manufacturing (Appendix).

As these sectors are responsible for more than 80 per cent of GHG releases, the employment chal-lenges would mostly concern these top emitters, the high-carbon sector (HCS). The share of GHG

emissions of the HCS ranges from 79 per cent of total GHG emissions in the Americas to 89 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, using ILO regional classification. Conversely, the contribution of low-carbon industries (LCS) to total GHG emis-sions is very small, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and always below 10 per cent.

Figure 4.3: Employment shares in GHG emitting industrial sectors by region

Europe and Central Asia Countries covered:

Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom.

41%

37%

22% High-carbon sectors

Low-carbon sectors Other sectors

The Americas Countries covered:

Brazil, Canada, Mexico and United States.

30%

21%

49%

High-carbon sectors Low-carbon sectors Other sectors

Asia and the Pacific Countries covered:

Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea and Taiwan.

35% 53%

12%

High-carbon sectors Low-carbon sectors Other sectors

Source: ILO Research Department based on the World Input-Output database (WIOD 2013).

Note: Last available year: 2009. Africa and Arab States are not included because of lacking data availability. High-carbon sectors include the top ten listed in the Appendix. At the same time, low-High-carbon sectors include the top ten listed in the Appendix. All the remaining sectors are classified as other sectors.

According to ILO (2011), the top fifteen carbon-in-tensive industries in high-income countries employ a relative small share of workers. The largest share of the employed workforce in indus-trialised countries is not in the HCS. However, still about every fifth worker, 22 per cent, works in a carbon-intensive sector that will be, or is already, affected by green transformation. By contrast,

carbon-intensive sectors are the largest providers of employment in Asia and the Pacific, account-ing for 53 per cent of the workers in the sample (Figure 4.3). This discrepancy is due to the large employment shares in the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors in developing and emerging economies. The employment shares for these three sectors can be between 30 and 80 per cent,

60 depending on the country, and all of these natu-ral-resource exploiting sectors are generally cate-gorized as carbon-intensive. It should be noted that this classification only provides a rough approximation, given enormous differences of

carbon-intensity within highly aggregated natu-ral-resource sectors: whether and to what extent agriculture or forestry actually emits carbon, or even sequestrates it, depends on the way the sector is operated.

Figure 4.4: Share of CO₂ emissions by industry and ILO region

Europe and Central Asia Countries covered:

86%

10%

High-carbon sectors Low-carbon sectors Other sectors

The Americas Countries covered:

Brazil, Canada, Mexico and United States.

79%

14%

High-carbon sectors Low-carbon sectors Other sectors

Asia and the Pacific Countries covered:

Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea and Taiwan.

89%

9% 2%

High-carbon sectors Low-carbon sectors Other sectors

Source: ILO Research Department based on the World Input-Output database (WIOD 2013).

Note: All charts refer to the year 2011 (last available data point). Africa and Arab States are not included because of lacking data availability. High-carbon sectors include the top ten listed in the Appendix. At the same time, low-carbon sectors include the top ten listed in the Appendix. All the remaining sectors are classified as other sectors.

Still, these estimates highlight the challenges faced by developing and emerging economies in terms of employment. In industrialised countries, mainly heavy industries and the energy sector are going through the green transformation, with relative small employment shares; in developing

and emerging economies, a much larger propor-tion of the work force will be affected. Policies therefore need to help workers to transition from the agriculture sector to productive, non-re-source-intensive 'decent work' in other sectors of the economy.

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5. POLICY OPTIONS TO STRENGTHEN

Im Dokument GREEN INDUSTRIAL POLICY: (Seite 74-77)