Individual voter turnout

Tables 4 report on our regressions estimating the effects of the treatments on individual (survey-based) voter turnout. We employ the five different proxies of individual turnout, based upon the survey module on the election-day experience. These variables are the simple self-reported turnout measure, the measure based on whether the respondent showed the right (inked) finger, the composite of all questions on the election-day experience (coded in terms of how likely it was that the individual turned out to vote), the measure focusing on specific knowledge of the ballot station facts (the number of ballot papers, whether there were photos of the candidates, the number of ballot boxes, whether they were transparent, and whether they were coloured), and the measure based on the interviewer’s assessment of the likelihood that the respondent voted after asking all the related questions. Note that individual turnout in the control group using these five turnout versions is: 88

(self-35

reported), 81 (finger), 79 (average questions), 76 (average questions - ballot facts only), and 75 percent (interviewer assessment). Note the 13 percentage-point difference between self-reported turnout and the final assessment of the interviewers, which is indicative of clear over-reporting of electoral participation by the survey respondents.²⁸ For each outcome we show one regression with province dummies and one regression with location controls and individual demographic controls²⁹ in addition to the province dummies. Table 4a compares targeted individuals in treated locations to control individuals, and Table 4b compares untargeted individuals in treated locations to control individuals.

We observe clear effects of the civic education and the hotline treatments on almost all individual turnout measures when considering targeted respondents (Table 4a). The size of the effects is 4-8 percentage points for the civic education treatment, and 5-9 percentage points for the hotline treatment. The interviewer assessments yield the largest effects among the different individual turnout indicators – these are significant at the 1 percent level, even without controls. The newspaper treatment also yields positive effects on voter turnout for the targeted, but they are not statistically significant at standard levels. Note however that we do not find statistically significant differences across the treatments. Turning to untargeted respondents (Table 4b), we find clear effects on all individual turnout measures for the hotline and the newspaper. These effects are 7-10 percentage points for the hotline, and 6-12 percentage points for the newspaper. The civic education treatment also yields positive effects, but they are not significant. We should note the larger effects found for the

untargeted relative to the targeted when considering the newspaper treatment: a possibility is that not receiving the newspaper on one’s hands raised additional interest about the

newspaper received by neighbors. We conclude that all interventions seem to have had a considerable impact on voter turnout, as measured in the survey: the civic education mostly had direct effects, the hotline had both direct and indirect effects, and the newspaper mostly had indirect effects. If we believe that the effects estimated from polling location official records should be an average of the effects on the targeted and the untargeted individuals, the results at the individual level are generally consistent with the official ones.

28 Note that 75 percent turnout in our control group is still much higher than the 44 percent average turnout in the control polling locations (see Tables 3). This difference may be due to the fact that we sampled heads of households and spouses who had access to cell phones. These individuals are more active politically than the full pool of voters, as verified in Afrobarometer data for Mozambique. Namely, in Afrobarometer Round 4 for Mozambique, we find that heads of households, mid-age respondents (30-50 years), and individuals using cell-phones are more likely to have voted in 2004 and to be interested in public affairs. We should also mention that it is also possible that the baseline survey per se induced respondents to turn out to vote.

29 These include gender, age, household characteristics, marital status, schooling, ethnicity, religion, occupation, assets and expenditure.

36 Table 4a: Individual turnout (targeted)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

coefficient 0.038 0.034 0.055* 0.046 0.042* 0.041* 0.050** 0.050** 0.073*** 0.076***

standard error (0.027) (0.027) (0.029) (0.029) (0.025) (0.024) (0.026) (0.025) (0.028) (0.027)

coefficient 0.064** 0.058** 0.063** 0.049* 0.072*** 0.065*** 0.078*** 0.070*** 0.093*** 0.088***

standard error (0.025) (0.026) (0.026) (0.027) (0.024) (0.024) (0.024) (0.025) (0.025) (0.024)

coefficient 0.021 0.020 0.014 0.013 0.027 0.030 0.033 0.036 0.038 0.043

standard error (0.030) (0.028) (0.040) (0.036) (0.033) (0.030) (0.033) (0.029) (0.037) (0.031)

0.877 0.876 0.807 0.805 0.788 0.788 0.757 0.756 0.753 0.752

0.011 0.030 0.014 0.027 0.023 0.053 0.036 0.069 0.026 0.046

953 943 953 943 953 943 953 943 953 943

h0: civic education = hotline F-stat p-value 0.272 0.305 0.774 0.921 0.182 0.276 0.266 0.407 0.423 0.633

h0: civic education = newspaper F-stat p-value 0.522 0.607 0.310 0.386 0.653 0.719 0.610 0.657 0.328 0.328

h0: hotline = newspaper F-stat p-value 0.101 0.129 0.206 0.300 0.150 0.207 0.163 0.234 0.103 0.127

no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes

number of observations

controls

Note: All regressions are OLS. All dependent variables are between 0 and 1. Controls are enumeration area/polling location characteristics, which include whether the location has a school, a police station, electricity, piped water, sewage, a health center, a recreational facility, a temple, a meeting room, and paved road access; and individual characteristics, which include gender, age,

household characteristics, marital status, schooling, religion, ethnicity, occupation, assets and expenditure. All regressions include province dummies. Standard errors reported in parenthesis - these are corrected by clustering at the location (enumeration area) level. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.

civic education

self-reported finger average questions average questions

(ballot facts only) interviewer assessment

Table 4b: Individual turnout (untargeted)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

coefficient 0.024 0.022 0.057 0.046 0.049 0.043 0.059 0.047 0.039 0.021

standard error (0.043) (0.043) (0.048) (0.051) (0.039) (0.040) (0.039) (0.039) (0.044) (0.045)

coefficient 0.102*** 0.096*** 0.090** 0.074* 0.080** 0.074** 0.085** 0.078** 0.101*** 0.093**

standard error (0.026) (0.028) (0.043) (0.042) (0.032) (0.032) (0.033) (0.033) (0.038) (0.037)

coefficient 0.070* 0.061* 0.143*** 0.122*** 0.085** 0.070** 0.092*** 0.075** 0.146*** 0.119***

standard error (0.036) (0.037) (0.036) (0.036) (0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.035) (0.038) (0.036)

0.877 0.879 0.807 0.811 0.788 0.790 0.757 0.758 0.753 0.756

0.013 0.020 0.015 0.031 0.021 0.038 0.039 0.058 0.028 0.048

437 431 437 431 437 431 437 431 437 431

h0: civic education = hotline F-stat p-value 0.067 0.092 0.569 0.650 0.482 0.482 0.563 0.479 0.224 0.153

h0: civic education = newspaper F-stat p-value 0.347 0.424 0.111 0.185 0.424 0.553 0.472 0.547 0.035 0.052

h0: hotline = newspaper F-stat p-value 0.364 0.376 0.282 0.325 0.902 0.919 0.870 0.932 0.328 0.555

no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes

controls

Note: All regressions are OLS. All dependent variables are between 0 and 1. Controls are enumeration area/polling location characteristics, which include whether the location has a school, a police station, electricity, piped water, sewage, a health center, a recreational facility, a temple, a meeting room, and paved road access; and individual characteristics, which include gender, age,

household characteristics, marital status, schooling, religion, ethnicity, occupation, assets and expenditure. All regressions include province dummies. Standard errors reported in parenthesis - these are corrected by clustering at the location (enumeration area) level. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.

civic education

self-reported finger average questions average questions

(ballot facts only) interviewer assessment

37