Energy efficiency in buildings

The significant potential for demand reduction in the heating sector can mainly be realised through energy efficiency improvements, such as better thermal insulation, more energy efficient equipment, and technology switching (e.g. replacing a fossil fuel-fired boiler with a heat pump for space heating) (IEA, 2012a). The biggest potential is in the residential sector, where heating and cooling account for two thirds of the energy use (European Commission, 2011a). Decarbonisation scenarios project a demand reduction of 32-63% by 2050 (European Commission, 2011c), mainly impacting on gas. However, the effect may not be uniform across member states, as in some gas may remain more cost-effective than electric or other fossil fuels-based heating (European Commission, 2011d).

4.13 Regional differences

The scenario analysis reveals several pronounced differences between western Europe and central and eastern Europe (herein defined as the member states that joined the EU in 2004, 2007 and 2013, with the exception of Cyprus and Malta).

The first result is that eastern Europe achieved much higher rates of decarbonisation than western Europe between 1990 and 2009 (-38% compared to -3%, as reported by Greenpeace (2012b)). This is mainly a result of the collapse of heavy industry in the context of economic transition. Future decarbonisation rates will thus need to be higher in western Europe than in the east if both regions are to reach similar decarbonisation levels by 2050 (compared to 1990).

Second, there is uncertainty about the regional development of energy demand between now and 2050. While Greenpeace (2012b) projects future energy demand to decrease much faster in western Europe (-31%) than in eastern European countries (-10%), IIASA (2012) projects the opposite (-17% and -33%, respectively). In the IIASA GEA-Supply pathways, energy demand may even increase in both regions, much more so in eastern Europe (+17% and +33%, respectively).

Third, projected deployment of renewable energy sources by 2050 is higher in the west than in the east, although the difference is more pronounced in IIASA (2012) than in Greenpeace (2012b) and ECF (2010). Greenpeace (2012b) projects shares of renewables in final energy demand of 91% for OECD Europe and 89% for eastern Europe, while IIASA (2012) projects renewables shares in primary energy demand of 34-83% in western Europe and 23-85% in eastern Europe. ECF (2010), on the other hand, projects that 90% of renewables capacity will be installed in western Europe, with the main hubs being Benelux and Germany, the Iberian peninsula and France. Solar capacities are mainly projected to be installed in the Iberian peninsula, central Europe, France, Italy and Malta, and Benelux and Germany. In terms of wind power, almost 50% of capacities will be found in the UK and Ireland, and Benelux and Germany. Additional capacities will mainly be found in the Nordic countries, France and the Iberian peninsula. In fact, Poland, the Baltics and all EU member states in southeast Europe will only contribute some 13% to installed renewables capacity by 2050 (ECF, 2010).

Finally, CCS may play a larger role in countries with lower renewables potential and is projected by 2050 to feature most prominently in the electricity mix of Poland and Italy, followed by Germany, Romania, Hungary and Denmark (Eurelectric, 2013).

References

AMPERE (2013), Report on the role of path dependence for EU decarbonisation pathways, Deliverable 5.2 authored by E3MLab-ICCS, AMPERE, April (http://ampere-project.eu/web/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2&Itemid=102).

Behrens, A., A. Bigano and M. Hafner (2011), “Policy Options to Improve the Security of European Energy Supplies: Results from the SECURE Project”, in The Contribution of 16 European Think Tanks to the Polish, Danish and Cypriot Trio Presidency of the European Union, Notre Europe, Paris, pp. 43-50.

Diamond, J. and P. Bellwood (2003), “Farmers and their Languages: The first Expansions”, Science Vol. 300, pp. 597-603.

Eurelectric (2013), Power Choices Reloaded, Eurelectric, Brussels (version of 10 July 2013).

European Climate Foundation (2010), Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe. Technical analysis.

European Climate Foundation (2011), Power Perspectives 2030: On the road to a decarbonised power sector.

European Commission (2011a), A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, Impact Assessment, SEC(2011) 288 final, Brussels, March.

European Commission (2011b), COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the White Paper - Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, SEC(2011) 391. Brussels, March.

European Commission (2011c), Energy Roadmap 2050, Impact Assessment, Part 2/2.

SEC(2011) 1565, Brussels, December.

European Commission (2011d), Energy Roadmap 2050, COM(2011) 885 final, Brussels, December.

European Commission (2013), EU Energy in Figures, Statistical Pocketbook, Luxembourg:

Publications Office of the European Union.

Fischer-Kowalski, M., W. Haas, D. Wiedenhofer, U. Weisz, I. Pallua, N. Possanner, A.

Behrens, G. Serio, M. Alessi and E. Weis (2012), Socio-ecological transitions: definition, dynamics and related global scenarios, Austria: Institute for Social Ecology and Brussels:

Centre for European Policy Studies, April.

Greenpeace International, GEWC, and EREC (2012a), Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable world energy outlook, July.

Greenpeace International, GEWC, and EREC (2012b), Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable EU27 energy outlook, October.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (2012), Global Energy Assessment: Toward a sustainable future, Laxenburg.

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012a), World Energy Outlook 2012, Paris: IEA/OECD, November.

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012b), Energy Technology Perspectives 2012. Pathways to a Clean Energy System, Paris: IEA/OECD.

NEUJOBS (2013), Summary info about the project (retrieved from: www.neujobs.eu).

SECURE (2010), Modeling results based on the POLES model provided by CNRS of the Universite Pierre-Mendes-France within the context of the SECURE project.

Sieferle, R.P., F. Krausmann, H. Schandl, V. Winiwarter (2006), Das Ende der Fläche – Zum gesellschaftlichen Stoffwechsel der Industrialisierung, Cologne: Böhlau.

Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEP) (2012a), “Metastudy Analysis on 2050 Energy Scenarios”, Policy Briefing, SEFEP Working Paper 2012-5, Berlin.

Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEP) (2012b), “Decarbonisation scenarios leading to the EU Energy Roadmap 2050”, SEFEP Working Paper 2012. Berlin.

Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEP) (2012c), “Analysis of the EU’s Energy Roadmap 2050 scenarios”, SEFEP Working Paper 2012, Berlin.

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES, Place du Congrès 1, B‐1000 Brussels, Belgium   Tel: 32 (0)2 229 39 11 • Fax: 32 (0)2 219 41 51 • www.ceps.eu • VAT: BE 0424.123.986 

ABOUT CEPS

Founded in Brussels in 1983, the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is widely recognised as the most experienced and authoritative think tank operating in the European Union today. CEPS acts as a leading forum for debate on EU affairs, distinguished by its strong in-house research capacity, complemented by an extensive network of partner institutes throughout the world.

Goals

• Carry out state-of-the-art policy research leading to innovative solutions to the challenges facing Europe today,

• Maintain the highest standards of academic excellence and unqualified independence

• Act as a forum for discussion among all stakeholders in the European policy process, and

• Provide a regular flow of authoritative publications offering policy analysis and recommendations,

Assets

• Multidisciplinary, multinational & multicultural research team of knowledgeable analysts,

• Participation in several research networks, comprising other highly reputable research institutes from throughout Europe, to complement and consolidate CEPS’ research expertise and to extend its outreach,

• An extensive membership base of some 132 Corporate Members and 118 Institutional Members, which provide expertise and practical experience and act as a sounding board for the feasibility of CEPS policy proposals.

Programme Structure

In-house Research Programmes

Economic and Social Welfare Policies Financial Institutions and Markets

Energy and Climate Change

EU Foreign, Security and Neighbourhood Policy Justice and Home Affairs

Politics and Institutions Regulatory Affairs Agricultural and Rural Policy

Independent Research Institutes managed by CEPS

European Capital Markets Institute (ECMI) European Credit Research Institute (ECRI)

Research Networks organised by CEPS

European Climate Platform (ECP) European Network for Better Regulation (ENBR)

European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes (ENEPRI) European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN)