Despite the many political and policy conflicts, the government has been moving t o resolve the energy dilemma. Based on the findings of the Commission, composed of energy experts from the Social Democrat, Center and Liberal Parties, Parliament approved an amended energy policy in early 1991 (Riksdagen 1990-91).
Firstly, it was decided that the nuclear phase-out will not begin by 1995-96, and nuclear power may remain after 2010. I t will only be phased-out if the Swedish economy or work force will not suffer any ill consequences. This stipulation has been considered t o be a face-saving clause for the political parties of the Commission. The Center Party, the most anti-nuclear of the three, can make the case that a nuclear phase-out will still begin in 1995, as they state there will be no negative effects on the economy by so doing. The Liberals, on the other hand, can equally claim that no nuclear reactor will be phased-out until long after 2010, as they believe that an early phase-out will damage the Swedish economy.
Secondly, the decision was taken t o remove the carbon dioxide ceilings set a t 1988 levels, as the Commission believed that 1988 levels had already been surpassed in 1990. Despite statistics t o the contrary, from the Swedish Environment Protection Board, it was decided t o be neither economically nor technically feasible t o maintain the ceiling. Instead a greenhouse gas emission ca.p is proposed, in which all the greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and various CFC's) are combined. Such a cap will be far easier for Sweden to adhere t o due t o its plan t o phase-out all remaining CFC's in accordance with the Montreal protocol. Furthermore, as CFC's have a longer life time than any other greenhouse gas, a complete phase-out will actually allow Sweden t o increase carbon dioxide emissions by twenty percent without going beyond the 1990 greenhouse gas emission cap (Eriksson 1991).
Thirdly, three and a half billion SEK will be put into research and development of renewable energy sources and energy conservation techniques. Additionally, nine hundred million SEI< will be invested in two prototype ethanol factories in an attempt to reduce Sweden's reliance on
"In a recent study, for example, respondents indicated that they would be willing to conserve energy in order
to help the Swedish economy (Lhfstedt 1991b).
fossil fuels.2g These measures are deemed essential for a nuclear phase-out, and they attempt t o answer the critics who have suggested t h a t from 1980 up t o now there has been little government attention t o these areas.
4 Public Participation
Energy policies in Sweden are largely decided by experts in the various political parties, those from the former Swedish Energy Administration, and some selected academics, but with little or no input from the general public. Policies vary depending on which part of the political spectrum they originate from, and with personal or institutional convictions about nuclear power.
T h e views of those outside of this group; including industry, business, the general public and the non-governmental sector are seldom solicited. Even when these groups are consulted, as in t h e case of t h e nuclear referendum, their input is not effectively incorporated into policy making.
Thus, little time or effort is spent in informing the public of policy choices or in making decisions realistic for their needs.
The former Center Party leader, Falldin, had firm moral, anti- nuclear beliefs. Along with the anti-nuclear movement within the Center Party, F d l d i n devised fantastic non-nuclear electricity scenarios. These led the party-at the height of the 1976 election campaign-to promise t h a t all of Sweden's nuclear reactors would be phased-out by 1985. Their reasoning was t h a t a 50%
saving in energy use could be achieved, a t no cost t o society, through residential conservation (Vedung 1980a and b, 1988). However, no d a t a on t h e feasibility of such a large domestic energy saving exists for t h a t time (Vedung 1980a).
Academians have also advocated energy policies with little practical feasibility. An energy scenario for the year 2000 based almost wholly on solar energy (Johansson and Steen 1979), although technically feasible on paper, took little account of the large and costly changes in infrastructure (eg. solar panels on residential structures) or social implications of such changes (eg. driving battery powered cars).
T h e elitism discussed above illustrates politicians disregard of public opinion. T h e democratic nature of t h e country's government implies t h a t policy makers are accountable t o t h e public (Wahlstrom 1991a), but as the Swedish policy system is considered t o be consensual, rather than adversarial, most political decisions take place behind closed doors with little input from the public (O'Riordan 1985, Sahr 1985).~'
T h e argument has been made t h a t the public, by exercising their right t o vote in elections and referenda, do actively participate in the policy making process (Lindberg 1977a and b). However, the public's influence exerted through this process is much more theoretical than practical. This is illustrated particularly with referenda.
A consultive vote was held in 1955 t o see if the Swedish public wanted t o LLfall in" with the rest of Europe and change t o driving on the right hand side of the road. They voted overwhelmingly (82.9%) t o keep on driving on t h e left side. However, in 1967 the government went against t h e understand complex problems, and tend to respond emotionally to various energy issues concerning risk (NRC 1989).
minimal role. The consensual approach has led policy makers t o assume that decisions will be accepted by the general public; it has gone so far that policy makers expect t o shape attitudes and educate the public rather than, as in the United States, simply t o influence them (Kelman 1981)
.
As policy makers themselves are divided about energy issues (an example is the split within the Social Democratic Party), the general public, subjected t o widely conflicting information, has become disillusioned. Thus, the public expresses concern over the inadequate information they receive from policy makers, the media, etc. on various energy issues (Lofstedt 1991a). In a recent survey conducted by SIFO, for example, results indicated that the public are much more distrustful of the politicians than they were prior t o the 1988 general elections (Ljungberg 1991).
The issue of poor communication between policy makers and the public is mentioned by several researchers (Boehmer-Christiansen 1990, Wahlstrom 1991a).~l Over recent years policy makers have not sought t o gain further understanding of the topic as public opinion has not created a demand for energy research (Andresen 1989). The government's decisions t o cut all funding (in 1990) t o the Council of Energy Research (Energi Forsknings Namden) t o integrate (in July of 1991) the Energy Administration's functions into an umbrella researchlindustrial organization, and the sale of the State Power Board all point t o a decrease in energy research (both the Swedish Energy Administration and the Council for Energy Research provided sizable funds for academic organizations).
The Greenhouse Eflect Example
The discussion of the greenhouse effect well illustrates the general public's lack of knowledge on energy and environment issues. Although probably the most widely discussed environmental problem, global warming has not been addressed by Swedish policy makers at the national level.
In the summer of 1990, the author conducted a study in the town of Umeb, Sweden, concerning people's knowledge of the greenhouse effect. The results indicated that the general public had a minimal understanding of the causes, consequences, and ways t o prevent global climate change.
Although similar results have been reported elsewhere (Childs et al. 1988, Kempton 1991) the results are surprising for Sweden, as one would expect the Swedish public t o be more knowledge- able for several reasons. Firstly, the Swedes are considered t o be one of the most environmentally aware people in the world (Vasterbottens Kuriren 1990). Secondly, the nuclear power debate has brought t o their attention the implications of alternative energy sources, including the use of fossil fuels and resultant increases in carbon dioxide emissions.
However, the results are supported by a local media analysis. The most widely read local paper (Vasterbottens Kuriren), over the year prior t o the study, carried only 13 articles discussing the greenhouse effect (Lofstedt 1991b). This figure is very small when compared with other newspaper sources such as The New York Times which carried eighty articles over a similar period (Kasperson et al. 1 9 9 0 ) . ~ ~
While the Swedish public remain ill informed, policy makers may make decisions that the public
311t should be remembered that the Swedes follow a type of party discipline, in that they cast their votes for determined much more by their campaigning ability (Sahr 1985).
3 2 ~ l t h o u g h not directly comparable in terms of style or circulation to the New York Times, the Vkterbottens Kuriren represents a major news/information source in the area of Umei, as does the New York Times for the United States.
would not accept if they had more access to information. In 1988 Sweden signed the Toronto agreement which called for a twenty percent reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 2005. In order t o achieve this goal the Swedish government passed a bill requiring stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions at 1988 levels. However, in January of 1991 that same Swedish government revoked the bill as a result of economic concerns. The Swedish government believed that it would be much more economical for Sweden t o finance carbon dioxide emissions abatement in foreign nations than at home. However, only a month previously, a SIFO survey showed that more than 60% of the public were in favor of the carbon dioxide cap. Additionally, only six months earlier, the Swedish public had expressed fear of the greenhouse effect (Ldfstedt 1991b and 1992.) This illustrates the government's failure t o recognize public opinion in the decision making process, and t o communicate accurate information about policy options.
The idea of effective public participation thus offers an expeditious way t o address the current energy policy dilemma. It would force policy makers t o increase their knowledge of energy and environmental issues so as t o give realistic responses t o public questions, and give a greater openness t o the whole policy debate (Andresen 1989). And as such, it would provide a basis for overall policy formation that is likely t o be sustainable and effective in the long term (Prins 1990).
5 Conclusions
Swedish energy policy can be characterized by controversy, elitism, and contradictory decision making. Decisions have been made without reference t o the public, which goes against the values of democracy. In order for public participation t o play a major role in the Swedish energy policy debate, the information flow between the policy maker and the person on the street must be increased and must be reciprocal. For this t o occur, the policy maker must recognize that in the long term a one way information flow will not produce consensus and only lead to frustration (Stern 1991). Adopting this approach would mean that future energy policy is less likely t o follow the incremental track, which has caused problems over recent years. Rather it would promote informed energy policies encompassing the needs of all the actors involved. Without such changes t o policy formation, and as long as the Swedish economy can afford it, politicians will continue to press ideological and moral goals, and pass the real decisions t o someone eke's term of office (as Falldin did); there will be no limit to muddling through.
If the public were to be consulted by policy makers (possibly through existing surveys and consultation with non governmental groups), the present energy policy situation would be much different: nuclear power would not be phased out until after 2010 (Dagens Nyheter 1991) (at which time energy conservation and renewables would be better placed t o bridge the energy gap), the 1988 carbon dioxide cap would stay in place (Ldfstedt 1991b, Svenska Dagbladet 1990), and there would be no more discussion of the build out of the four remaining rivers for hydro power (Lofstedt 1991a). Furthermore, there would be no energy dilemma.
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