Empirical Model and Research Hypotheses

The literature review has provided the basic knowledge for developing the conceptual model presented in Figure 4.3.

Furthermore, a series of exploratory interviews with renewable energy experts in Ukraine (see Section 5.1) was conducted to refine the theoretical model.

The perceived investment attributes payback period, investment costs, relative advantage, perceived risk and technological complexity were defined from the literature analysis and confirmed during the expert interviews as decision-relevant. Additionally, the organisational factors economic situation, energy costs, company size, and the business environment factors green tariff, business uncertainty and capital availability, as well as the personal factors of the decision-maker risk aversion and innovativeness were determined from the scientific literature and further confirmed in the expert interviews. The factors perceived need for waste recycling and the perceived height of the natural gas price were developed from the results of the expert interviews.

The two-stage model examines which factors have influence on the top-managers´ willingness-to-invest in biogas and on actual biogas investments. The first stage of the model examines which factors have influence on the willingness-to-invest in biogas. This stage consists of four general categories of decision-relevant aspects: perceived willingness-to-investment attributes (see also Section 3.1 and Section 4.1.1), organisational (Section 3.1.2, 3.2 and Section 4.1.2), personal (Section 3.2, 3.3 and Section 4.1.3) and business environment factors (Section 3.1, 3.2 and Section 4.1.4).

The second stage investigates relationships between the intention to invest in biogas (willingness-to-invest) and actual investments in biogas (Section 3.2.1 and Section 4.1.5). It is expected that actual biogas investments are significantly influenced by the top-managers´ willingness-to-invest in biogas.

Figure 4.3: Conceptual model

The model variables were operationalised combining quantitative and qualitative scales, as appropriate. Interview partners were asked to express their individual agreement with the statements reflecting the model variables. For these statements a 5-point Likert scale was used: from 1 – “agree strongly” to 5 – “disagree strongly”. The statements were developed from the literature review and the results of the expert interviews. The next chapter illustrates the research design and how the theoretical preliminary work has been implemented in the empirical study.

Willingness-to-Invest in Biogas

Perceived Investment

Attributes

Business Environment Personal

Factors of

Decision-Maker Organisational

Factors

Payback Period Investment Costs Relative Advantage Perceived Risk Complexity

Green Tariff Business Uncertainty Capital Availability Natural Gas Price Risk Aversion

Innovativeness Economic Situation Energy Costs Need of Waste Recycling Company Size

Actual Biogas Investment

5 Research Design

The present chapter describes the research design developed under the framework of the doctoral thesis. The research design aims at addressing the research questions (see Section 1.2) and at translating the conceptual model into empirical steps. Scholars suggest that a well-articulated research design is a fundamental step in structuring a scientific survey (Yin 2003; Black 1999). Maxim (1999) assumed that it helps enhance the robustness of the results by minimizing the measurement errors. The research design of the present study includes a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. As argued by Snow, Thomas (1994), this combination should be selected due to the complexity of the research questions and the variables to be investigated. Figure 5.1 shows the main steps of the research design of the present study.

Figure 5.1: Main steps of the research design

As a first step, a qualitative preliminary study was conducted. At this stage qualitative methods, such as a literature analysis, expert interviews and a questionnaire pre-test were applied. The preliminary study was made to gain a solid understanding of the main problems, related to the biogas implementation in Ukraine´s agricultural sector. Special attention was devoted to the literature review to identify the decision-influencing variables. Then, to test and refine the conceptual model, interviews with selected experts in the field of renewables in Ukraine were conducted. The purpose of the expert interviews was to gain an in-depth understanding of the biogas industry and to set up a database for the main survey. Additionally, the content validity of various model constructs had to be assured in the preliminary study.

Finally, a pre-test questionnaire was filled out during the interviews and it helped refine the questionnaire structure, eliminate unnecessary and reformulate unclear questions. The second step was to launch an interview-based survey questionnaire. The main survey was administered to a sample of top-managers of large Ukrainian agroholdings. Despite a limited access to senior managers of Ukrainian agroholdings, 68 top-managers out of approximately 112 operating agroholdings²⁸ in Ukraine were interviewed (Ukrainian Agribusiness Club 2015, p. 12).

Finally, the data collected were analysed by means of the appropriate statistical methods to best answer the research questions (see Section 6.1). Furthermore, during all three stages of the research design the doctor thesis was disseminated to scholars and practitioners in Ukraine and Germany through academic conferences²⁹, which made it possible to present the research findings and to improve the quality of the present work by gaining useful feedback. A more in-depth description of the survey process is provided in the next sections.

28 The current development of agroholdings, including their overall amount, was presented in Section 2.2.2.

29 Between 2014 and 2016 this project was presented on five international and national conferences in Ukraine and Germany, thoroughly collecting and implementing the participants´ feedback into the data processing. This helped ensure quality of the present doctor thesis.

Qualitative Pre-Study May-June´14

Quantitative Main Survey Oct-Dec ´15

Statistical Data Evaluation Jan-May ´16

34 Expert Interviews:

Biogas Investors, Banks and Government

68 Face-to-Face Interviews:

Senior Managers of Largest Ukrainian Agroholdings

Factor Analysis Regression Models Structural Equation Modelling