Total emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in Germany have more than doubled since 1995. However, emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 have developed very differently: HFC emissions in Germany have risen sharply since 19951
The high climate impact of PFCs and SF6 in particular has prompted various producers and users to take steps to reduce emissions. Awareness of the harmful effects of these gases on the climate has also been heightened by the critical discussion in the EU and a number of Member States.
. By contrast, the increase in emissions of PFCs has been halted. Annual PFC emissions since the mid 1990s actually display a steady downward trend. Emissions of SF6 reached a minimum of 4.2 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2002, but have been increasing again since then.
Although absolute emissions (in tonnes (t)) of all fluorinated greenhouse gases more than doubled between 1995 and 2007 (1995: 3250 t; 2007: 7300 t), emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent rose by only 1.8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (1995: 15.4 million t CO2 equivalent; 2007: 17.2 million t CO2 eq.) because of the very much greater GWP of PFCs and SF6 compared with HFCs.
As already described in the section on areas of application and use in Chapter 1.2, the way the fluorinated greenhouse gases are used is crucial to the amount and timing of the emissions. Whereas emissions and input quantity are identical in the case of open applications, large amounts remain in storage in closed applications (stocks). It is from these annually increasing stocks that the substances are partially or wholly emitted during the entire use phase and during disposal. A distinction is therefore made between actual and potential emissions when reporting on fluorinated greenhouse gases. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the figures given here are always actual emissions. These are made up of emissions from production, stock/use, process and/or disposal. By contrast, the potential emissions, in other words the maximum emissions possible in a year for closed applications correspond roughly to the average stocks for a year. For simplicity’s sake, actual and potential emissions for a year can usually be considered equal in the case of open applications. One special case is emissions from foams: Since fluorinated greenhouse gases have only been in use for a few years, only a small stock has built up. Since the emissions attributed to the production process are in some cases high (they form part of actual emissions), actual emissions may be higher than potential emissions (stock). Other examples of special cases are found in the
1 In 1990 there was no deliberate production / use of HFCs. The emissions attributed to 1990 are solely the
semiconductor industry (see Chapter 8) and the aluminium industry (where emissions occur during the manufacturing process).
For applications where stocks are building up and/or have built up, the following Tables 2.1 to 2.6 for the year 2007 include, in addition to actual emissions, a final column showing the potential emissions as well (average annual stock).
HFC
In the case of HFCs in particular, the Federal Environment Agency expects emissions to continue rising if no further measures are taken. The reason for this is as follows: HFCs are used primarily as substitutes for the ozone-depleting CFCs and HCFCs which have been phased out internationally since the early 1990s. Despite extensive successes, it will be a few years before the final discontinuation of ozone-depleting substances in Germany and the EU takes place. For example, the sale of virgin HCFC refrigerant R 22 is prohibited with effect from 1 January 2010; existing systems may only be topped up with non-virgin R 22. Since many systems have been converted to HFC refrigerants and only some have been replaced by HFC-free systems, it may be assumed that emissions of HFCs from refrigeration systems will show a sharp increase in the next few years, because the R 22 stocks in refrigeration systems in the EU are put at 130,000 tonnes [Stahl 2009]. Although CFCs and HCFCs were replaced by halogen-free alternatives in nearly all areas of application, the HFC emissions resulting from their use rose by a factor of about 3 between 1995 and 2007 (see Table 2.1); this is more than a fivefold increase in terms of CO2 equivalents (see Table 2.2).
In the case of HFCs in particular, it is also clear that the increasing use of these substances is resulting in a gradual build-up of large stocks, especially in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems, and in the long term in thermal insulation material as well. This is especially evident from the example of car air-conditioning systems: The additional annual quantity of HFC-134a simply for filling new car air-conditioning systems for the German market went up from 1,450 t in 1995 to 3,900 t in 2007, as a result of the larger proportion of cars being fitted with air-conditioning systems. In 2007 the cumulative stocks of HFCs in car air-conditioning systems in Germany were as high as 22,400 t. This quantity corresponds to 29 million t CO2 equivalent (see Table 2.1 and 2.2).
Table 2.1: Trend in HFC emissions in Germany from 1995 to 2007 in tonnes [BReg 2009, Schwarz 2009]
Emission source HFC emissions in t (rounded)
1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2007*
Table 2.2: Trend in HFC emissions in Germany from 1995 to 2007 in million CO2 equivalent [BReg 2009, Schwarz 2009]
Emission source HFC emissions in million t CO2 equivalent (rounded) 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2007*
PFC
Emissions of PFCs are only partly due to their deliberate use. Since 1990 the biggest single source of PFC emissions has, despite substantial reductions, been primary aluminium production with nearly 40%. As can be seen in Table 2.3 and Table 2.4, total PFC emissions have fallen by about 80% since 1990, both in tonnes and in CO2 equivalents. This is due to the extensive modernisation measures taken in aluminium production in particular, which have resulted in a drastic reduction in specific PFC emissions per tonne of aluminium produced [BReg 2009].
Table 2.3: Trend in PFC emissions in Germany from 1990 to 2007 in tonnes [BReg 2009, Schwarz 2009]
Emission source PFC emissions in t (rounded)
1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2007*
Aluminium production 350 230 53 64 66 28 29 -
Semiconductor production
15 23 43 33 33 31 24 -
Printed circuit board production
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 -
Refrigeration 0 1 11 13 15 18 17 73
Total 368 256 109 112 116 79 74 73
*: Potential emissions (average annual stock)
Table 2.4: Trend in PFC emissions in Germany from 1990 to 2007 in million CO2
equivalent [BReg 2009, Schwarz 2009]
Emission source PFC emissions in million t CO2 equivalent (rounded)
1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2007*
Aluminium production 2.3 1.6 0.36 0.43 0.45 0.19 0.19 - Semiconductor
production
0.12 0.18 0.33 0.3 0.25 0.24 0.18 - Printed circuit board
production
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -
Refrigeration 0 0.01 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.125 0.6
Total 2.5 1.8 0.8 0.85 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6
*: Potential emissions (average annual stock)
SF6
SF6 is used in a large number of applications, in some cases on a very small scale. The development of SF6 emissions is shown in Table 2.5 and Table 2.6. At present the biggest sources of SF6 in Germany are emissions from aluminium foundries and the disposal of sound-insulating windows. As a result of a drastic decline in the use of SF6 in sound-insulating windows and car tyres, the sharp rise in emissions since 1990 was first brought to a halt and subsequently reversed. All in all, SF6 emissions fell by 40% between 1995 and 2002.
However, SF6 emissions have been rising again since 2002 and, primarily because of the
“open” disposal of old window panes some 25 years after manufacture, they will probably continue rising until 2020. Also SF6 has been in use on a fairly large scale since 2007, to clean the reaction chambers in the production process for thin film silicon modules. Consequently there was a sharp rise in SF6 emissions in the solar technology sector in 2007 [BReg 2009].
Table 2.5: Trend in SF6 emissions in Germany from 1990 to 2007 in tonnes [BReg 2009, Schwarz 2009]
Emission source SF6 emissions in t (rounded)
1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2007*
Cast aluminium / trace gas 1 1 14.5 35.5 46 85.5 84 -
Sound-insulating windows 69 108 52 46 54 61 67 1.950
Solar technology / optical fibres
0 0 0 0.4 1.5 4.7 20.3 -
Electrical switchgear 23 27.3 16.9 15.7 16.3 14.4 15.8 1770 Magnesium foundries 7.4 7.7 13.4 16.1 24.9 24.1 15.2 - T&D components no data 16.7 26.6 23.3 16.0 12.4 9.9 no data
Particle accelerators 5.2 4.5 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 74
Car tyres 65 110 50 9 4 2.5 2 6
Semiconductor production 3.7 2 2.4 2.4 3.4 1.3 1.2 -
Miscellaneous 11 26 32 24 21 20 13 no data
Total 200 300 210 180 190 230 230 -
*: Potential emissions (average annual stock)
Table 2.6: Trend in SF6 emissions in Germany from 1990 to 2007 in million CO2 equivalents [BReg 2009, Schwarz 2009]
Emission source SF6 emissions in million t CO2 equivalents (rounded) 1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2007*
Cast aluminium / trace gas 0.02 0.02 0.35 0.85 1.10 2.04 2.00 - Sound-insulating windows 1.65 2.58 1.24 1.10 1.29 1.46 1.60 47 Solar technology /
optical fibres
0 0 0 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.49 -
Electrical switchgear 0.55 0.65 0.40 0.38 0.39 0.34 0.38 42 Magnesium foundries 0.18 0.18 0.32 0.38 0.60 0.58 0.36 - T&D components no data 0.4 0.64 0.56 0.38 0.30 0.24 no data Particle accelerators 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.8
Car tyres 1.55 2.63 1.20 0.22 0.96 0.06 0.05 0.14
Semiconductor production 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.03 - Miscellaneous 0.26 0.62 0.76 0.57 0.50 0.48 0.31 no data
Total 4.8 7.2 5.0 4.3 4.5 5.5 5.5 -
*: Potential emissions (average annual stock)
Projections commissioned by the Federal Environment Agency on emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 for Germany for the period up to 2050 show that measures already adopted and in force to reduce F-gas emissions will have a considerable influence on future emission trends.
Given complete implementation of Regulation (EC) No 842/2006, Directive 2006/40/EC and the national Chemicals Climate Protection Ordinance (Chemikalien-Klimaschutzverordnung) including compliance with the maximum leakage rates specified therein (“with-measures scenario”, variant a), emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases can be expected to fall to 7.9 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2030. From 2030 onwards, emissions are likely to rise again to 9 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2050 in spite of the measures adopted [Schwarz, Gschrey 2010].
On the basis of the assumptions of a “with-measures scenario, variant a 2
2 The Federal Environment Agency’s “with-measures scenario”, variant a, takes account of the implementation of all legislation passed up to 2009 (Regulation (EC) No 842/2006, Directive 2006/40/EC
“, HFC emissions will fall by about 45% to 6.2 million tonnes CO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2030. After 2030, this scenario shows emissions rising again to 7.4 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2050. For comparison: latest estimates indicate that without the measures taken since 1998, consumption-induced HFC emissions would rise to nearly 17 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2050. On the other hand, further emissions could be prevented by adopting additional measures. A “with-further-measures scenario” includes those measures which are technically
possible today, but have not yet been implemented politically. These include, for example, substituting HFCs in all types of vehicles with refrigerants with a GWP of less than 150, using only natural refrigerants in stationary refrigeration and air-condition systems, and dispensing with the use of HFC in the manufacture of PUR and XPS foam products.
Compared with the “with-measures scenario”, these additional measures would make it possible to save as much as 5.7 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2030, and about 7.2 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2050 [Schwarz, Gschrey 2010].
The “with-measures scenario, variant a” for SF6 shows SF6 emissions falling to 4.2 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2030, and as low as 0.8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2050.
The reasons for this sharp drop in emissions include the following: since 2008 the use of SF6 has been prohibited in large magnesium die-casting production facilities (annual quantity of SF6 used greater than 850 kg). Also, emissions from sound-insulating windows will cease after about 2035, since windows filled with F-gases may not be placed on the market in the EU with effect from 2008. The predicted decline in SF6 emissions in the field of solar technology is due to the fact that production facilities constructed in Germany from 2008 onwards use NF3 for chamber cleaning, a gas with a high GWP which is not yet subject to reporting requirements [Schwarz, Gschrey 2010].
Without the legal provisions outlined above, F-gas emissions in Germany could be expected to show a further rise in the next few decades to a total of nearly 20 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2050 (“business-as-usual scenario”). The share of total emissions due to fluorinated greenhouse gases would, as described in the global forecasts (see Chapter 1), rise sharply in Germany as well.
Literature used in Chapter 2
Stahl, Manfred (2009): So wird die R22-Bombe entschärft. In: CCI, 43 (3) 29-30, Karlsruhe:
Promotor GmbH.
BReg - Bundesregierung (2009): Berichterstattung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland gemäß Artikel 5, 7 und 8 des Kyoto-Protokolls der UN-Klimarahmenkonvention zu fluorierten Treibhausgasen an das Sekretariat der Klimarahmenkonvention im Jahr 2009. (http://unfccc.int/program/mis/ghg/submis2003.html; April 2009).
Schwarz, Winfried (2003): Emissionen und Emissionsprognose von H-FKW, FKW und SF6 in Deutschland. Aktueller Stand und Entwicklung eines Systems zur jährlichen Ermittlung. Emissionsdaten bis zum Jahr 2001 und Emissionsprognosen für die Jahre 2005, 2010 und 2020. 1. Zwischenbericht zum Forschungsvorhaben, erstellt im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Förderkennzeichen 202 41 356, Berlin: UBA.
(www.umweltbundesamt.de/uba-info-daten/daten/treibhausgase.htm; 30.12.03).
Schwarz, Winfried (2009): Emissionen fluorierter Treibhausgase in Deutschland 2006 und 2007 – Inventarermittlung 2006/2007 (F-Gase). Daten von HFKW, FKW und SF6 für die nationale Berichterstattung gemäß Klimarahmenkonvention für die Berichtsjahre 2006 und 2007 sowie Prüfung der Datenermittlung über externe Datenbanken.
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Schwarz, Winfried, Gschrey, Barbara (2009): Projections of global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2050. Report-no. (UBA-FB) 001318, Dessau-Roßlau:
Umweltbundesamt, Climate Change 17/2009.
(http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3866.pdf).
Schwarz, Winfried, Gschrey, Barbara (2010): Erstellung von Projektionen zu den Emissionen von HFKW, FKW und SF6 für Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2050. Förderkennzeichen
3708 42 311, Dessau-Roßlau: UBA.
(http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/produkte/fckw/emissionen.htm).