5.2 Detailed Scenario Assumptions
5.3.2 Electricity Demand
In the developed regions,electricity demand has been growing rapidly - significantly faster than GDP and faster than the demand for other energy forms. High end-use efficiency, flexibility, and ease of control make this energy form economically more attractive than other energy carriers, such as coal or even oil and gas, which in general require a larger tech- nological effort at the point of end-use. On the other hand, thermal generation of electricity involves large conversion losses, and the expected price rises for primary fuels will make it necessary to economize its use* - to restrict it as much as possible to essential uses.
*The impact of higher generation costs can be judged from the significantly lower levels of electrification in countries with predominantly thermal generation (typically 10-14 percent) than in countries with great hydropower potential (e.g., Norway with about 20 percent of final energy consumption).
70 A.M. Khan, A. Holzl In view of these considerations, our assumptions concerning penetration of electricity in the household/service sector heat market have been fairly conservative. In the market- economy developed regions I
+
111, it is assumed that price increases for electricity in general and the problem of large peaks in the winter season in particular would discourage consumers to use electricity as the main energy carrier for heating. In the centrally planned Region 11, the emphasis has been, and probably will be, to provide space heat and hot water with district heat, either from combined heat and power plants, or from boiler plants which allow an economical use of low-grade fuels. As a result of the various assump- tions, specific uses of electricity in the household/service sector in the developed regions grow by a factor of 4.8 and 3.4 between 1975 and 2030 in the High and Low scenarios, respectively; with respect to thermal uses of electricity, the two scenarios differ only modestly, with factors of growth between 1975 and 2030 of 3.1 and 2.8, respectively (Table 29).In industry, the differences in the level of electrification between the three developed regions are not as great as in the household/service sector (see Vigdorchik 1976). Unfor- tunately, the lack of data does not permit a separation of thermal uses (furnaces, small boilers, etc.) from specific uses (lighting, electric drives, electrolysis, etc.). As indicated in Table 29, only the incremental electricity penetration into thermal uses above the present levels is considered. Data for France and Austria indicate that about 10 percent of the useful thermal energy demand is supplied by electricity. If this figure is applied to the developed regions I
+
I1+
111, the resulting estimates of thermal and specific uses of elec- tricity in industry are 94 and 217 GWyr/yr in 1975, which corresponds to a ratio of 1 :2.3.For the scenarios, no change was assumed in the energy intensity of industry with respect to specific electricity requirements. While in the past there was an increase in almost all industry sectors, mainly as a result of increasing automation. However, the refmed control mechanisms that are possible through the use of microprocessors will help to rationalize processes better and perhaps allow a reduction in energy use despite more automation. No significant further penetration into thermal uses was assumed - following the general guideline to minimize the use of primary fuels. However, the situa- tion in industry is different from that in the household/service sector. In the latter sector the major share of thermal energy demand is in the low-temperature range, where elec- tricity offers more convenience, but requires a larger amount of primary fuels than direct combustion of fossil fuels. In industry, about 40 percent of the thermal energy demand is in the high-temperature range, and in these applications electricity is in some cases even superior from an energetic point of view, in addition to being economically advan- tageous. In the light of these considerations, the projections of industrial electricity demand are probably on the conservative side. "Specific uses" in the three developed regions increase by factors of 4.2 and 3.7 in the High and Low scenarios, respectively, while the total industrial electricity use increases by factors of 4.9 and 3.0, respectively.
Assuming that about one-third of the electricity demand for the so-called "specific uses"
would actually be for thermal uses, electricity would cover about 21-24 percent of the useful thermal energy demand in 2030. Since it would mainly be used in the high- temperature range, this means that by 2030 about 50-60 percent of the high-temperature demand would be supplied by electricity.
The situation of the developing regions (IV
+
V+
VI) could be compared to that in the developed regions several decades previous, when large areas had no access toTABLE 29 Thermal energy and electricity demand in the two scenarios (GWyr/yr).
%
fDeveloped regions (I
+
I1+
111) Developing regions (IV+
V+
VI) LLHigh scenario Low scenario High scenario Low scenario
1975 2000 2030 2000 2030 1975 2000 2030 2000 2030
Useful thermal energy demand:
Industry 939 1,775 2,672 1,504 1,894 105 484 1,351 339 694
Household/service 781 1,170 1,457 1,091 1,306 67 163 344 157 316
Total 1,720 2,945 4,129 2,595 3,200 172 647 1,695 496 1,010
Of which supplied by electricity:
Industry * 0 85 215 60 113 0 10 93 7 48
Household/service 75 164 234 152 210 0 3 16 3 14
Total 75 249 449 212 3 23 0 13 109 10 6 2
Specific uses of electricity:
Industry 311 6 94 1,305 563 828 39 235 763 168 409
Household/service 153 397 738 3 28 5 20 11 6 8 264 5 1 161
Total 4 64 1,091 2,043 891 1,340 50 303 1,027 219 5 70
Electricity use for transportation 16 46 116 41 87 1 4 3 5 3 24
*Only electricity penetration into thermal uses above the present level is considered, because a separation of thermal and specific uses in 1975 was not pos- sible due to lack of data. A very rough estimate for the developed regions could be 10 percent of useful thermal energy demand, or 90-100 GWyr/yr.
7 2 A.M. Khan, A. Holzl electricity and many households used electricity for lighting. As a result of increasing rural electrification and higher levels of per household electricity consumption as well as due t o high population and industrial growth rates assumed for the developing regions, the two scenarios imply a rapid increase of electricity demand during the study period:
Specific uses, household/service sector: X24(H)/X 15(L) Total uses, household/service sector: X25(H)/X 16(L) Specific uses, industry: x2qH)IX 1 q L )
Total uses, industry: X22(H)/X 12(L)
In the case of developing regions, airconditioning could cause a rapid increase in elec- tricity demand. Most of the population in the developing Regions IV, V, and VI lives in warm climatic zones and the use of comfort airconditioning may be expected t o increase with increasing per capita income. In the scenarios considered here the average use of air- conditioning per dwelling and per square meter of service sector floor area in 2030 in Regions IV (LA) and VI (ME/NAf) is assumed t o become comparable to that envisaged for the developed Regions I, 11, and 111 (see Tables 25 and 27). However the airconditioning requirements (per dwelling or per square meter of service sector floor area) of Region V (Af/SEA) are assumed to be an order of magnitude smaller, despite a latent demand, in view of the low income levels that will persist in this region even 50 years from now.