Figure 2 clearly shows that, conditional on identical characteristics entering PBS (due to matching), firms able to settle successfully perform better on all outcomes. Panel A establishes that settling firms are significantly more likely to survive, defined as being in business at least three years after the year they began PBS. Three-year survival rates for settling firms are 75% as opposed to 50% for non-settling firms.
32Resulting in the exclusion of firms less than three years old. Our matched analysis sample consists of 2,032 debtors, among whom 1,572 successfully settled using the PBS mechanism while 462 experienced bargaining failure.
33Final matched sample NT=458 and NC=458. There was no bargaining failure in the 1-digit sec-tor Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply so exact matching on NACE 2-digit indus-tries led to fewer matched pairs. Overlap of propensity scores are shown in Online Appendix 2 at:
https://tinyurl.com/dwruttfk.
Figure 2: After matching dependent variable behavior of debtors settling and not settling
The unshaded (left-hand) side of the last three panels in Figure 2 clearly establishes that the pre-treatment parallel trends requirement holds for critical outcome variables for debtor firms after matching. The shaded (right-hand) sides in Figure2show unequiv-ocally that, conditional on identical observable characteristics due to matching, firms able to settle successfully perform better with respect to all outcomes studied. It is also evident that this positive effect (and its significance) grows substantially as time after entering PBS increases.
To reinforce the obvious visual conclusions in Figure 2, a difference-in-differences model was estimated as in the equation 1 (see subsection 3.1.2.). In the sample of settled debtors (nsettled = 1572), 26.3% (412) did not survive until the last observed year (2019), a Type I error in the PBS process while among the sample of unsettled debtors (nnotsettled
= 462), 48.9% (226) survive until 2019, a Type II error of the PBS process.34
Results in TableA6show that bargaining failure reduces the three-year survival
prob-34For more on Type I and Type II error in bankruptcy, seeWhite(1994) andCepec and Grajzl(2019).
ability by an estimated 21.4 percentage points in the full sample, an estimate remarkably similar to the 25 percentage point reduction found comparing means in the matched sample. After controlling for other factors (see the list in the footnote to Table A6), the performance of firms that did not settle was substantially worse than those that did.
Profits were reduced by 46.5%, employment by 51.8%, and revenue by 91.5% (evaluated at sample means in period after the year of entering PBS). Again, the effects are very similar before and after matching, implying is a low probability that there are any un-observable factors between the two groups of debtors important enough to alter these results in any meaningful way.
4.4.1 Longer term effects of delay for the 2012 - 2014 debtor cohort
The PBS law changed in the second half of 2015 (NN, 78/15), after which PBS remained an option but was more closely integrated within the bankruptcy law, as opposed to being a separate procedure entirely under the control of FINA. Analysis of only those firms entering PBS in 2012 through 2014 removes any possible differences in impact resulting from changes in the law, as well as enabling investigation of effects over a longer time horizon (up to t+5). We conducted matching on this subsample to achieve balance, and estimate the effects of delay on survival and firm performance.
Figure 3: Dependent variables of debtors from the first cohort (2012 - 2014) compared to matched debtors not settling
Results in Figure 3 and Table A7 are very similar to those in our main estimation.
The implication is two-fold. Neither the change to the law in 2015 nor the characteristics of the large backlog of cases at its initiation had a discernible effect on the impact of introducing the PBS process.
4.4.2 Heterogeneous effects of delay by debtor size
Like elsewhere in the EU, firms with 9 or fewer employees make up a large share of all firms (89% in Croatia). Such firms are 68.4% of our sample. As mentioned above these micro firms were hardest hit by the recession of 2009 (Kovaˇc et al.,2016; Peri´c and Vitezi´c, 2016). Results in Figure 4 and TableA8 (using only the matched sample, given the similarities of results in TableA6 and A7) show that the effects of bargaining failure are not driven by small firms. Indeed, as might be expected, bargaining failure shows a stronger negative effect on profits and staffing of firms with 10 or more employees, however, the heterogeneity is small in magnitude.
Figure 4: Dependent variables of debtors with 9 or fewer employees (left side) and debtors with 10 or more employees (right side) compared to matched debtors not settling
4.4.3 Heterogeneous effects of delay by majority voter type
Are the effects, especially the probability of survival, affected by the type of shareholder with the majority vote? Again, as can be seen in FiguresA5,A6, and A7parallel trends exist for all types of shareholder majorities. This enables estimation of
Yi =α+βTi +γti+δ(Ti∗ti) + +νM Vipr iv ate+ξM Vimixed+η(M Vipr iv ate∗Ti∗ti)+
κ(M Vimixed∗Ti∗ti) +XjKζj +ǫi(2)
where ti is dummy indicating the post-PBS entrance period, Ti is a bargaining failure dummy,M Vistateis a dummy for firms i where the creditor group state and SOE controls a majority of votes, M Vipr iv ate is a dummy for firms i where the creditor group private firms and/or financial institutions controls a majority vote35, M Vi m i x e d is a dummy for firmsi, where at least two creditor classes have to agree in order to obtain a majority vote (i.e. no single creditor class controls the majority vote). The η, andκ are the products of Ti, ti and type of majority voters, where the reference category isM Vistate (state and SOE control majority vote). XjT are the debtor-specific control variables.
Debtors have a higher long-term probability of survival when private firms have a majority of votes compared to situations when state and SOE have the majority vote (Table A9). The costs of failure to settle in terms of survival are roughly half for firms whose debt is mostly in private hands.
Several explanations are possible for this result. One is that private creditors have stronger incentives to continue negotiating and accept haircuts than do state and SOEs.
Another is that investors are more focused on financial outcomes in the negotiations than state actors who may have preservation of employment or other non-financial goals.
Finally governments may simply be worse managers or worse analysts of the complex issues invovled in reorganization.