The scenarios presented in this article explore a wide range of future air pollution trajectories, with 567
a regional to global long-term perspective. The scenarios systematically explore two key 568
uncertainties: the stringency of climate policy and the stringency of air pollution control. The 569
resulting range of emission trajectories is much wider than the original RCPs. This range – including 570
the description of underlying assumptions – makes the scenario set attractive for exploring the 571
impacts of air pollution control, in conjunction with climate policy. The purpose of developing this 572
wide set of scenarios was to respond to three limitations of currently available scenarios: limited 573
exploration of the full range of possible air pollution futures (as in the RCPs), the rather short-term, 574
from the perspective of climate discussion, and often only regional or sectoral focus of air pollution 575
projections. The newly developed scenarios have made progress in these areas.
576 577
The developed scenarios have some limitations, specifically with respect to potential impact of air 578
pollution policies on land use, including agricultural waste burning. In some regions open burning of 579
biomass contributes strongly to local pollution episodes and would be targeted by air pollution 580
policy; such scenarios were not explored here. These limitations could be addressed in future work.
581
Furthermore, for specific regions, more detailed scenarios exist that provide finer spatial resolution 582
and a much more specific representation of policies.
583 584
The implementation of climate mitigation policies is highly relevant for air pollution control, due to 585
important co-benefits between climate policy and reduction of air pollutant emissions. Especially 586
for some species (SO2 and NOX), climate policy may result in substantial co-benefits. This is for 587
instance illustrated by the fact that implementing stringent climate policies can reduce emissions of 588
these species further than even the most tight air pollution policies in place. The combination of air 589
pollution and climate policy could form an effective strategy for reducing emissions, especially in 590
Asian regions now characterized by very high emission levels.
591 592
After 2030, additional policies that go beyond current policies are necessary to avoid an increase in 593
air pollutant emissions. The implementation of a CLE scenario is expected to halt the growth and 594
stabilize global emissions towards 2030 for most of the species (NOX, BC, OC, CO, VOC) and generate 595
substantial decreases for SO2. At the regional level, developments are more diverse. The maximum 596
feasible reduction scenario would result in a more than 75% reduction in 2030 compared to the 2005 597
emissions of NOX, SO2 and CO. However, unless stricter controls after 2030 are enforced, emissions 598
might start to increase again, primarily for SO2 and NOX, due to increases in activity levels induced by 599
population and GDP growth. Alternatively, introduction of ambitious climate policies could help in 600
reversing these trends.
601 602
In the period after 2030, the simulations are based on the assumed relationship between economic 603
growth and emissions factors. There is substantial evidence that wealthier societies tend to 604
introduce more stringent air pollution control policies, at least for some pollutants (e.g. trends are 605
observed for SO2, but not for CO2). There is substantial debate on the question whether income can 606
be seen as a real driver of this process (or instead policy interventions) and whether the observations 607
for some income levels and species can be applied more universally. Here, we have used income to 608
derive possible trajectories for future emission factors. However, it is not implied that such emission 609
factor improvements will be implemented automatically; rather they need a well-designed and 610
targeted multi-pollutant policy.
611 612
In the context of climate policy, stringent air pollution control policies are most relevant by mid-613
century. Towards the end of the century air pollutant emissions strongly decrease given the shift 614
towards renewable energy and significant improvements in energy efficiency. Mid-century maximum 615
feasible reduction policies can have a considerable impact. To reach ambitious air pollution control 616
M AN US CR IP T
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targets during the century, strict air pollution control policies are required also in a world with 617
effective greenhouse gas mitigation policies in place. The most promising perspective to reach low air 618
pollutant levels would be combining important reductions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse 619
gases, with accelerated action on air pollutants.
620 621
Acknowledgements 622
This paper is written as a follow-up of the EU FP7 Project PEGASOS (Pan-European Gas-Aerosols-623
Climate Interaction Study - Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change Interactions, grant 624
agreement no: 265148). The results presented in this study are from the reports of the PEGASOS 625
project, which was led by PBL (PBL Netherlands Environmental Impact Assessment Agency) and 626
benefitted from the contribution of two institutes involved in the project: IIASA (International 627
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and JRC (Joint Research Centre), collaborating thus with the 628
GAINS and respectively EDGAR research teams. The GAINS team provided emission factors for six air 629
pollutants included in the CLE (activity and emissions data implying the implementation of existing 630
current legislation) and MFR (emissions and activity data implying besides the current legislation also 631
the use of most of the todays best available technologies) data sets for 2030 and the EDGAR group 632
provided the sectoral Implied Emission Factors from 1970-2008 for the 26 IMAGE regions that were 633
used for model calibration. Data availability via ECCAD (http://eccad.sedoo.fr) platform under the 634
scenario family PBL-PEGASOSv2.
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• The co-benefits of future climate and air pollution policies are assessed 1
• A wide range of emission trajectories explores policy co-benefits 2
• Climate mitigation policies are found highly relevant for air pollution control 3
• Strengthened air pollution policies can offset growth in future air pollutants 4
• Carbon-intensive Asian regions benefit from joint air pollutant and climate policy 5
6