Developing and Implementing an Evacuation System

Enhancing Evacuation Readiness Capacity of the Population to Increase their VI.4.4.1

Evacuation Capacity

In case in the course of a tsunami event people exposed have received a tsunami warning on time, the next question that arises is: “Are people prepared and ready to react to warnings?”

(UN/ISDR Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning 2004): Some might do nothing, some may want to confirm the tsunami occurrence before they run, some hassle to find their children, and some run on their own to higher ground. In the face of the very limited evacuation time available as is the case in Indonesia, inappropriate reactions to warnings are a vulnerability factor that can increase the risk of mortality during a tsunami event. Thus, for a TEWS to be effective, appropriate investments to increase the effectiveness of evacuation readiness are a very important component of an effective TEWS in Indonesia and should not be underestimated compared to other R&V-R-measures. The respective measures pose a general challenge for the way a TEWS has to be set up to become people-centred and effective. The following R&V-R-measures play a crucial role for increasing the evacuation readiness of the population.

 Warning message design: Especially for the case of Indonesia where the average Estimated Time of Tsunami Arrival (ETA) is 30 minutes only, populations exposed have to decide individually and to promptly evacuate, whereas in other regions such as Hawaii, authorities have enough time to persuade their inhabitants to leave their place. Thus, for the case of Indonesia, the tsunami warning system has to follow a unidirectional hierarchical communication process, in which a warning message needs to be directly understood by the recipient and provide clear guidance how to react in order to act themselves first-hand (Cf.

Kunz-Plapp 2008; GIZ-IS 2009). To prevent misconceptions, a warning message shall be capable to translate a warning message from one social context (science community, authorities) into another social context (population exposed) by transforming the physical and scientific prediction of the hazard (e.g. information about location and extent of a potential tsunami impact, and its Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA) into a request for action by a layperson (John Handmer 2000): “Warnings are embedded within societal constituted frameworks that are determined by actions and perceptions of individuals” (Lars Clausen, Wolf R. Dombrowsky 1984, p. 299) Thus, warning messages need to fulfil certain criteria to ensure they are received and understood out of the context where people live so that they have a concrete meaning to them and bring about protective action.

 Education / Socialization for Evacuation and SOP: Often authorities perceive warning recipients as a passive general public, representing a single, monolithic and homogeneous entity just decoding and following instructions communicated in a warning (Ruhrmann, Kohring 1996). But in reality warning response behaviour is diverse and depends on a number of factors, such as social structure (age, health, and gender), experiences, subjective R&V perception, and attitudes that might lead to refusal of state authority and information.

Thus, authorities face various uncertainties concerning the success of an issued warning:

How many people will respond, how fast will they act, what will they do, and where will they go (John H. Sorensen 2000, p.121)? To increase the evacuation readiness of communities, households and individuals, R&V-R practitioners need to ensure that they internalize, develop mechanisms and rules of procedures to ensure effective evacuation (e.g. knowledge of evacuation place and routes, family based rules on meeting points, plans for the usage of vehicles, and support for the elderly) by the means of socialization programmes, evacuation

exercises and visualization of evacuation routes and shelters (signs, tables, maps, leaflets etc.).

Table 7shows the steps of R&V-R for increasing the evacuation readiness of the population.

Thereby, a contextualization of each step with regard to the management topic is provided, from which step-specific R&V-A requirements are deduced.

Table 7 R&V-R process to enhance the effectiveness of evacuation readiness R&V-R process for enhancing evacuation readiness

1 Measure generation

Elaboration of possible options how to increase evacuation readiness by the means of raising awareness and warning message design

2 Measure assessment

Assessing options to increase evacuation readiness with respect to their degree of effectiveness

3 Measure selection Selection of the most effective warning message and awareness strategy 4 Measure

Developing Evacuation Capabilities to Increase the Effectiveness of Timely Evacuation VI.4.4.2

When the people exposed have received a tsunami warning on time in the course of a tsunami event and are ready to immediately commence evacuation, the next question arises: Are people able to find a safe place in due time? Some might be able to, some live in areas where evacuation seems to be hopeless. In the face of very limited evacuation time available and when the local spatial conditions are unfavourable for ensuring timely evacuation, large parts of the exposed communities might get trapped and risk mortality when a tsunami strikes. Thus, for a TEWS to be effective, investments in evacuation and shelter infrastructure are required to increase the evacuation capacity of the population, posing a huge challenge for spatial planning, particularly within urban areas, such as the City of Padang, Cilacap and Kuta.

The process of evacuation planning describes activities and measures taken by local stakeholders to ensure short-term exposure of threatened locations is reduced by means of evacuation in due time before a tsunami strikes (Spahn et al. 2010). Such a plan includes a set of complementary R&V-R-measures, listed as follows and drawn from (Spahn et al. 2010;

Scheer et al. 2011) that might require changes of the urban landscape of a city.

 Identifying existing shelters and designing and constructing new ones for horizontal and vertical evacuation (target points). Often shelter locations need to be integrated into the urban landscape, requiring changes of land use and settlement structures. Important evacuation target points and locations of emergency service providers can be located and characterised using clearly defined sets of criteria for vertical and horizontal evacuation.

 Identifying and constructing the fastest evacuation routes from each point of a defined area to the nearest evacuation target point. Thereby, the existing street network might require changes in width and orientation, implying also changes in the land use of cities and might also include resettlement. Where possible, adjustments of everyday traffic management systems are required in accordance with evacuation directions to ensure orientation if evacuation is required.

 Identifying high loss facilities that need special attention during evacuation (schools, hospitals, shopping malls, homes for the elderly, etc.).

 Socializing evacuation routes and shelters by the means of information materials, maps, signs, et al. developed to inform the general public about evacuation procedures.

Table 8 shows the steps of R&V-R for the development of people-centred evacuation shelters.

Thereby, a contextualization of each step with regard to the management topic is provided, from which step-specific R&V-A requirements are deduced.

Table 8 R&V-R process and assessment requirements to enhance evacuation capability R&V-R Tasks: Setting up effective evacuation infrastructure

1 Measure generation Identification of spatial entities that require evacuation shelters

2 Measure assessment Assessing identified spatial entities (options for placing shelters) urgently needing evacuation shelters and their required capacities

3 Measure selection Selection of the size and location of evacuation shelters 4 Measure implementation Constructing evacuation infrastructure

5 Measure monitoring Monitoring evacuation infrastructure performance