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B. BDT input variables 155

B.2. Data-MC Agreement

2l os,

t t t

t tt+light tt+c tt+b

(a)

6 7 8 9 10

Nj

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Norm. Entries

3b 6j, 2l os,

tt

tt tt+light tt+c tt+b

(b)

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Avg

Rjj

0

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

Norm. Entries

3b 6j,

2l os,

t t t

t tt+light tt+c tt+b

(c)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

(PC b-tagging score)i i=1

6

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Norm. Entries

3b 6j,

2l os,

t t t

t tt+light tt+c tt+b

(d)

Figure B.1.: Separation of highest ranked BDT input variables in the OS channel.

B.2. Data-MC Agreement

Data MC agreement for BDT input variables after applying the additional SFs of the MC-based method.

B.2. Data-MC Agreement

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 LJETS,8j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 LJETS,8j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 LJETS,8j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(a)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 LJETS,9j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 LJETS,9j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others

Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 LJETS,9j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(b)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 10j,3b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 10j,3b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 10j,3b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(c)

Figure B.2.: The agreement between data and MC of the most important BDT-input variables in the 1L channel in region with exactly 3 b-jets in the (a) 8-jet, (b) 9-jet and (c) at least 10 jet regions. The uncertainty band includes statistical uncertainties.

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 OS2L,6j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 OS2L,6j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others

Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 OS2L,6j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(a)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 OS2L,7j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 OS2L,7j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 OS2L,7j,3b Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(b)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 8j,3b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 8j,3b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others

Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 8j,3b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(c)

Figure B.3.: The agreement between data and MC of the most important BDT-input variables in the OS channel in region with exactly 3 b-jets in the (a) 6-jet, (b) 7-jet and (c) at least 8 jet regions. The uncertainty band includes statistical uncertainties.

B.2. Data-MC Agreement

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 4b OS2L,6j, Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 4b OS2L,6j, Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others

Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 4b OS2L,6j, Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(a)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5 Events 90

ATLAS Internal = 13 TeV s 139.0fb-1

4b

t Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 4b OS2L,7j, Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others

Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 4b OS2L,7j, Pre-Fit

Data tttt

* tt

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(b)

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Sum of mv2 pseudo-continuous btag score 0.5

139.0fb-1 4b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

139.0fb-1 4b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others

Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

139.0fb-1 4b

tt tt+light

1c

tt Single top

V+jets others Uncertainty

*: normalised to total Bkg.

(c)

Figure B.4.: The agreement between data and MC of the most important BDT-input variables in the OS channel in region with at least 4 b-jets in the (a) 6-jet, (b) 7-jet and (c) at least 8 jet regions. The uncertainty band includes statistical uncertainties.

APPENDIX C

Fit to Control Regions with ttTRF

This chapter show additional plots from the fit to data in blinded regions using the ttTRF method. The fit-result is used to generate a pseudo-data set in the full phase-space.

Figure C.1.: Pulls and constraints of the fit to data in blinded regions with the ttTRF method.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 +jets (TRF tt

(a) 8j3bH Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(b) 8j3bH Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(c) 8j3bL Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(d) 8j3bL Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(e) 9j3bH Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(f) 9j3bH Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(g) 9j3bL Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(h) 9j3bL Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] LJETS,8j, Pre-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(i) 8jge4b Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] LJETS,8j, Post-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt

(j) 8jge4b Postfit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 LJETS,9j, Pre-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt

(k) 9jge4b Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 LJETS,9j, Post-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt

(l) 9jge4b Postfit

Figure C.2.: Pre- and post-fit comparison of MC to data in the 1L channel of the fit 163

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5

Events Internal

= 13 TeV, 139 fb-1 +jets (TRF tt

(a) ge10j3bH Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt

(b) ge10j3bH Postfit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt

(c) ge10j3bL Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(d) ge10j3bL Postfit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(e) ge10jge4b Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(f) ge10jge4b Postfit Figure C.3.: Pre- and post-fit comparison of MC to data in the 1L channel of the fit

(1L+OS) to data in blinded regions with the ttTRF method. The H (L) stands for 3b≥4b@85%(3b<4b@85%). The uncertainty band includes statistical and systematical uncertainties.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 +jets (TRF tt

(a) 6j3bH Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(b) 6j3bH Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(c) 6j3bL Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(d) 6j3bL Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(e) 7j3bH Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt

(f) 7j3bH Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(g) 7j3bL Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(h) 7j3bL Postfit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] OS2L,6j, Pre-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(i) 6jge4b Prefit

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [GeV] OS2L,6j, Post-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt

(j) 6jge4b Postfit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 OS2L,7j, Pre-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt

(k) 7jge4b Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 OS2L,7j, Post-Fit

Data SM4top tt) +jets (TRF tt

(l) 7jge4b Postfit

Figure C.4.: Pre- and post-fit comparison of MC to data in the 1L channel of the fit 165

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt

(a) ge8j3bH Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt

(b) ge8j3bH Postfit

10.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 Events 80

ATLAS Internal = 13 TeV, 139 fb-1 +jets (TRF t

(c) ge8j3bL Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(d) ge8j3bL Postfit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(e) ge8jge4b Prefit

1

0.80.60.40.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 BDT Score 0.5 +jets (TRF tt tt+X

(f) ge10jge4b Postfit Figure C.5.: Pre- and post-fit comparison of MC to data in the 1L channel of the fit

(1L+OS) to data in blinded regions with the ttTRF method. The H (L) stands for 3b≥4b@85%(3b<4b@85%). The uncertainty band includes statistical and systematical uncertainties.

APPENDIX D

Additional Fit Results

This Appendix includes additional plots for the fits to pseudo data in Section D.1 and for the final results in Section D.2.