CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

Analyzing the described procedures the following details of data compilation and survey preparation have to be mentioned.

Reference is made in particular to the Survey 1974 as it represents the present state of the art.

Because it was possible only to change the raw data as received from the contributing countries in minor'ways, the data were not treated in so much of a formal statistical way as they could have been had such restrictions not been imposed.

Prior to the receipt of the formal official data provided in the standard questionnaires by each contributing nation, literature searches were made for data on each energy resource and for each nation. This resulted in preliminary tabulations of the latest published estimates of the various energy resources from nations where data could be found. Where duplicate data did not agree, attempts were made to resolve such discrepancies and to choose the more accurate quantities. The data in these tabulations provided the basis for reporting resources for those nations that did not return questionnaires. When

available, data from the WEC "Survey of Energy Resources 1968"

was used, except where later information could be proven to be more accurate.

As the questionnaires were received from each reporting nation, the reported data were checked against the preliminary tabulations. Where there were significant variations, a letter

was written to the reporters in the particular nation to determine whether they had made an error. In some instances reporting errors were corrected, but in most cases the initially submitted information was found to be correct. Probably the largest error in the existing resources literature corrected in this way was the downward revision of Canadian coal resources from 1,000,000 million tonnes to the real value of 100,000 million tonnes. In any event, the answers to queries were used without question because it was agreed that national knowledge resources were the most accurate source of data.

In a few instances questionnaires were filled out in a language other than English. These were first translated into English. When all data in a set of questionnaires were

verified, the comments and references were edited when necessary to make comments from various nations as uniform as possible.

Then the numerical and keyed data were appropriately marked and the questionnaires sent to the computer center for alpha numeric key punching. Much information was reported in non- metric units; such data were automatically converted to the equivalent units by the computer. The computer also made all additions to obtain national totals when resources were reported for national subdivisions. Only single totals were necessary for most resources; however, for solid fuels totals were first made for coal ranks, and then the national total for all ranks.

The computer was of great value in rearranging data for output as given in the 100 pages of appendices in the finished document where statistical data are given first, followed by comments, and then by references. Use of the computer was also valuable in making last minute changes and in avoiding the need for tedious proofreading which would have been necessary had all this information been typeset. The final computer

output was sent to the printer where it was reduced about 60%

in size for direct offset printing.

The two most detailed tasks in preparing the computer inputs were the extensive editing of the geological des-

criptions in Appendix 1 and editing of the renewable resources descriptions in Appendix 9 of the Survey 1974. Since the replies to questionnaire 9 were provided almost exclusively in descriptive form it was impossible to give data on re- newable resources in tabular form.

It was unfortunate that an early decision was made to do the summary tables in each chapter by hand so they would be more attractive. Computerization of these tables would have been quite simple and would have saved at least one to two man months of work. In addition it would have eliminated the few relatively minor errors that have been noted which resulted from last minute changes that had to be made manually.

It is highly recommended that if the computer approach is

maintained for the next edition then summary table output should also be computerized.

I n p r e p a r i n g t h e summary t a b l e s , w h i c h l i s t e d o n l y n a t i o n a l t o t a l s d a t a ( a n d d a t a by c o a l r a n k s ) , d a t a f o r r e p o r t i n g n a t i o n s w e r e t r a n s f e r r e d f r o m t h e a p p e n d i c e s a n d combined w i t h d a t a f o r n o n r e p o r t i n g n a t i o n s f r o m t h e p r e l i m i n a r y t a b u l a t i o n s h e e t s f o r e a c h r e s o u r c e . T o t a l e n e r g y c o n t e n t s o f f u e l s w e r e t h e n computed u s i n g u n i t h e a t v a l u e d a t a f r o m t h e "WEC S u r v e y o f E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s , 1 9 6 8 , " o r f r o m o t h e r s o u r c e s . S i n c e many r e t u r n e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w e r e o n l y p a r t i a l l y f i l l e d o u t , a t t e m p t s w e r e made i n t h e summary t a b l e s o n l y t o s u p p l y t h e m i s s i n g d a t a f r o m o t h e r r e f e r e n c e s ; s u c h a u x i l l i a r y d a t a were a p p r o p r i a t e l y r e f e r e n c e d t o i n d i c a t e a n o n q u e s t i o n n a i r e s o u r c e . F i n a l l y , s u b c o n t i n e n t a l ( r e g i o n a l ) , c o n t i n e n t a l a n d w o r l d t o t a l s ( s e e T a b l e 2 ) were computed m a n u a l l y .

Table 2. World energy resources and production as of 1974.

a Additional

World Energy Resources Reserves product ionb) Resources 1971 1972 Solid Fuels, 10 mt 9

(Coal equivalent) 551 10,755 2.39 2.43

Liquid Fuelsc), 10 mt 9

(Coal equivalent) 119

Natural Gas, 10 mt (coal 9

equivalent) 69.9

Hydropower, TWh 10, 300d) ' e ) 80,000 1,300 f) 1, 390g) Uranium, 10 t 3 5,000 ^{h )} 1 8 . 5 1 9 . 2

(U308)

"North American shale oil and oil from bituminous sands are thought to outnumber oil reserves by a factor of two.

d)10,300 TWh of 300 GW.

elwith a 95% dry ~ e r i o d : 4,340 TWh at 540 GW.

f)1,300 TWh at 300 GW.

" ~ o t a l hydro and nuclear energy production of 1972 amounted 0.18 x 10 9 metric tons coal equivalent.

' " ~ ~ u a l s 4.25 x 10 metric tons metallic uranium. 6

The location of resources on the maps at the end of the Survey were derived partly from marked mqps submitted with the questionnaires. In most cases, however, contributors did not send maps, so resource locations had to be obtained from other sources. For about half the countries that reported data by national subdivisions the subnational boundaries were shown on maps provided; for the other half, the boundaries were put down on the basis of good to poor descriptions and are not too accurate in some cases. Further, subdivisions were different for different resources in many cases. For example, fossil

fuels were given on the basis of sedimentary basins, but hydraulic resources were reported for existing river basins.

Most of the text was written without the need for returned questionnaires. However, about _{4 0 %} to _{5 0 %} of each chapter giving the descriptive material on quantities and location of resources could be finalized only after receipt and evaluation of all questionnaires. Long delays in receipt of the last of the questionnaires made the writing of this part of the text a very rushed affair.