In my view, we are still a long way from evidence-based policymaking in accounting and financial markets. We need to temper our expectations, starting with the objectives, which is one reason why I prefer the more modest term “evidence-informed policymaking.” The systematic use of academic evidence to inform standard setting, regulation and policy requires substantial investments into the research infrastructure, including the synthesis and transmission of findings.
It is not something that policymakers can simply decide to do on their own. Building the necessary research infrastructure takes time and, if taken seriously, evidence-based policymaking requires a concerted and long-term effort by researchers and policymakers.
Let me illustrate this general point with the rise of evidence-based medicine. The core idea of evidence-based medicine is to apply the best available research to clinical decision making and practice guidelines.35 It places less emphasis on expert intuition and unsystematic clinical experience and instead emphasizes the systematic examination and accumulation of clinical research. This approach is now the leading paradigm for clinical practice. The emergence of evidence-based medicine is viewed as one of the 15 most important milestones in medicine, along with the discovery of antibiotics (BMJ 2007), illustrating the tremendous upside potential for the systematic use of academic evidence.
But the development of evidence-based medicine was a massive and long-term effort. It started in the 1970s with David Sackett, Alvan Feinstein and other researchers at McMaster University in Canada, at the time a new medical school, which established the world’s first department of clinical epidemiology and biostatistics (Zimerman 2013). McMaster University created a new curriculum (“problem-based learning method”) and Sackett developed courses (and criteria) for the “critical appraisal” of the literature.36 The latter illustrates that methodological changes were central to the development of evidence-based medicine. Consistent with this notion, its development is closely connected to the rise of randomized-control trials and meta-analyses. Iain Chalmers and the creation of the Cochrane Collaboration in 1993, named in honor of Archie Cochrane’s earlier contributions, played a central role, facilitating the review, aggregation and dissemination of relevant clinical research through a worldwide, network-based approach (Chandler and Hopewell 2013, Smith and Rennie 2014). The development of
35 For more elaborate definitions see Guyatt (1991), the Evidence-Based Medicine Working Group (1992), and Sackett et al. (1996). It was first coined as the “systematic approach to analyze published research as a basis for clinical decision making.” (Claridge and Fabian 2005).
36 For more detailed accounts of the history, see Zimerman (2013) and Smith and Rennie (2014). Evidence-based medicine is closely related to clinical epidemiology and in this sense the methods were not new and it has much older roots (Claridge and Fabian 2005). For instance, “the father of evidence-based medicine” David Sackett acknowledges that he was inspired by the work of Thomas Chalmers (Sackett 2010).
based medicine further involved academic courses for medical students, researchers and physicians, a series of journal articles and editorials, workshops and conferences, and the creation of electronic databases for clinical trials. The movement also had substantial institutional support by one of the leading medical journals (JAMA) and its editor Drummond Rennie (Zimerman 2013). Overall, it took more than 20 years for evidence-based medicine to become widespread and widely accepted.
This historical account on based medicine illustrates why I believe that evidence-informed policymaking requires major effort and substantial investments. The article delineates a number of suggestions on how accounting and financial market research could better support evidence-informed policymaking. Among other things, I discuss that such policymaking requires that we systematically aggregate findings and evidence, regularly perform replications, and conduct many more closely related studies in different settings. We also need to obtain help from regulators (and firms) in generating relevant data and exogenous regulatory variation. But just as in medicine, developing this approach will take time.
Importantly, however, I view evidence-based medicine more as an aspirational example. I do not argue that evidence-informed policymaking is the same as evidence-based medicine or that accounting and financial markets research could deliver what medical research has delivered for evidence-based medicine. As discussed earlier, there are substantial differences between natural science and social science as well as medicine and public policy (e.g., financial market regulation). These differences are another reason why we should use the term of evidence-informed policymaking. Research can inform policymakers but it cannot fully determine policy.
The notion that, once we have enough rigorous research, it can tell us the right or optimal policy
without much further judgement is naïve. Professional judgment by policymakers will continue to play a significant role in economic and public policymaking (see also Coates 2015).37
But even then, research can deliver important quantitative but also qualitative insights and improve policymaking, and therefore the efforts are – at least in my mind – not in vain. As Blinder (1987, p. 10) says, the “fact that economists do not know everything does not mean that they do not know anything.” Also, in many instances, just knowing certain empirical facts can be helpful to policymakers or policy debates. Let me illustrate this point with an example. The financial crisis led to a major policy debate over the role of fair-value (or mark-to-market) accounting, as it was viewed by many as an important factor contributing to or exacerbating the crisis. This debate led to pressures on the accounting standard setters and banking regulators to change the accounting rules (e.g., Financial Stability Forum 2009). However, basic descriptive evidence on banks’ balance sheets and activities could have informed standard setters and banking regulators that it was unlikely that fair-value accounting played a significant role.
Examples for relevant facts include the fraction of financial assets that banks reported at fair value, what fraction of these assets were actually marked to market as opposed to a matrix or a model, and information on when banks started taking write-downs on their financial assets, relative to when the crisis unfolded (see discussions by Laux and Leuz 2009, 2010). This is not to say that the question about potential negative effects of fair-value accounting during a crisis could have been answered without a more extensive empirical analysis. This example merely serves to illustrate that basic empirical facts can be very useful to policy debates.
To me, the glass is half full. There are many challenges and we have to tread carefully. But considering the potential costs of poorly designed or implemented regulation, it is worth going
37 Even in evidence-based medicine, expert knowledge and context are relevant and still needed (Sackett et al.
1996).
down the path towards a more systematic use of evidence in policy making, in general and also when it comes to accounting standards and financial markets regulation specifically. This path requires the cooperation of researchers and policymakers. We need a concerted and systematic effort as well as substantial infrastructure investments, if we do not want to pay lip service to the term and the idea.
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