So me o f the e stima te s g ive n in Ta b le 2 .2 a re c le a rly mo re ro b ust tha n o the rs. Tho se e stima te s d e rive d fro m a c o mp a riso n o f British C rime Surve y d a ta a nd c o mp a ra b le reco rded crime fig ures are mo re ro bust than tho se estimates based o n expert o pinio n but little ha rd da ta . Even fo r these estima tes, the rela tio nship b etween the a mo unt o f crime reco rded by the po lice and the amo unt o f crime estimated by the British Crime Survey may
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The economic and social costs of crime
chang e o ver time. Mirrlees-Black et al. (1 9 9 8 ) sho w that trends in reco rded crime, repo rted crime and BCS crime have differed so mewhat between 1 9 8 1 and 1 9 9 7 . This pro blem is particularly acute where repo rting rates have histo rically been lo w but may no w be rising , such as fo r do mestic vio lence o r racially-mo tivated o ffences. In April 1 9 9 8 the po lice crime reco rding rules chang ed in a number o f ways. Altho ug h the estimated o ne-o ff effect o f these c o unting rule c ha ng es ha s b een a c c o unted fo r, differenc es in the types o f o ffenc e no w rec o rded rela tive to the previo us c rime c o unting rules ma y a ffec t the future rela tio nship between reco rded and actual levels o f crime.1 5
Even where the British Crime Survey o ffers a n estima te, this ma y no t b e a c c ura te. Fo r do mestic vio lence a nd sexua l o ffences in pa rticula r, there a re fa cto rs a t wo rk tha t ma y disto rt the true pic ture – fo r e xa mple , vic tims ma y b e unwilling to re po rt inc ide nts to interviewers where they have a clo se relatio nship with the o ffender, o r where the o ffender may be present when co mpleting the survey. The British Crime Survey do es no t publish its estimate o f the level o f sexual victimisatio n due to co ncerns o ver the accuracy o f the results.
A self-c o mpletio n mo dule wa s intro duc ed in the 1 9 9 4 sweep o f the survey (Perc y a nd Mayhew, 1 9 9 7 ). This resulted in a much hig her co unt o f sexual victimisatio n than estimated either by po lice reco rded crime o r British Crime Survey estimates o f victimisatio n. Ho wever, the estima te ra ised a s ma ny q uestio ns a s it a nswered. In pa rtic ula r, the self-c o mpletio n respo nses mag nified an issue already present in the main survey – that many victims did no t co nsider what happened to them to be a crime, but rather “ just so mething that happens” , even tho ug h what happened was leg ally a crime. This issue serves to hig hlig ht the tentative nature o f the multiplier estimate, and whilst the standard BCS estimate o f the number o f sexual o ffences used in this study is likely to underestimate the true level o f victimisatio n, no reliable co nclusio ns can be drawn abo ut the extent o f underestimatio n.
Fra ud, the ft fro m a sho p a nd ha ndling sto le n g o o ds a re o the r a re a s whe re multiplie r estima tes a re pa rtic ula rly tenta tive. The estima te o f just o ver 9 millio n fra ud o ffenc es is drawn fro m a repo rt o n the eco no mic co st o f fraud (N ERA, 2 0 0 0 ) co mmissio ned by the Ho me O ffice and the Serio us Fraud O ffice as part o f the develo pment o f a co st o f crime perfo rmance measure fo r the criminal justice system. The repo rt ackno wledg es the partial nature o f this estimate and the fact that it is no t suitable fo r tracking the to tal number o f o ffences each year.1 6
1 5 Incidence of crime
1 5 Fro m 2 0 0 0 , the British Crime Survey will be run annually, o n an increased sample size. This sho uld allo w mo re reg ular mo nito ring and, if necessary, updating o f the multiplier estimates.
1 6 The N ERA estima te o f the numb er o f inc idents o f fra ud ea c h yea r is b a sed o n a summa tio n o f pub lished info rmatio n fro m many different so urces, including HM Custo ms and Excise, the Department o f Health, the Department o f So cial Security, the British Bankers Asso ciatio n and many o thers.
Theft fro m a sho p is a no ther hug ely under-repo rted o ffenc e. Estima tes o f the numb er o f custo mer thefts are pro vided by the Co mmercial Victimisatio n Survey (CVS) (Mirrlees-Black and Ro ss, 1 9 9 5 ) and the Retail Crime Survey 1 9 9 8 (British Retail Co nso rtium, 1 9 9 9 ). The CVS co unted nearly 6 millio n custo mer thefts in 1 9 9 3 , and the Retail Crime Survey nearly 4 millio n in 1 9 9 7 . These estimates, ho wever, require the retail o utlet o r head o ffice to be aware that the theft has taken place. Farringto n (1 9 9 9 ) bro ught to gether a number o f studies o n sho plifting.
He no ted tha t po lic e rec o rded c rimes reflec ted o nly b etween 1 in 1 0 0 a nd 1 in 1 0 0 0 sho plifting incidents in two department sto res studied in 1 9 8 4 . Self-repo rt data fro m vario us studies also sug g ested that between 1 in 4 0 and 1 in 2 5 0 sho plifting o ffences led to a co nvictio n o r cautio n.1 7 G iven the uncertainties invo lved in these calculatio ns, this study has taken a fairly co nservative appro ach and assumed 1 0 0 o ffences per reco rded o ffence.
N o estimates were made o f the number o f handling sto len g o o ds o ffences, drug s o ffences, o ther no tifiable o ffences, traffic and mo to ring o ffences o r o ther no n-no tifiable o ffences.
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The economic and social costs of crime
1 7 There were nearly 1 2 0 ,0 0 0 o ffenders cautio ned o r co nvicted o f theft fro m a sho p in 1 9 9 8 (Criminal Statistics, 1 9 9 8 ). If each o ffender has been co nvicted o r cautio ned fo r 2 acts o f sho plifting o n averag e, and if we use Farring to n’s central assumptio n o f 1 cautio n o f co nvictio n fo r every 1 5 0 o ffences, we find that there were aro und 1 2 0 ,0 0 0 x 2 x 1 5 0 = 3 6 millio n o ffences. There were 2 8 1 ,0 0 0 reco rded o ffences o f theft fro m a sho p in 1 9 9 8 -9 9 . Dividing the 3 6 millio n by 2 8 1 ,0 0 0 g ives us a multiplier o f aro und 1 2 8 .
1 7