The possible impact of seabed mining h a s been examined in t h r e e specific a r e a s - prices and production costs, location of mining activity, a n d t h e magnitude and geographic distribution of t h e benefits from mineral pro- duction and t r a d e . The analysis has been largely conceptual in n a t u r e , with little or no a t t e m p t actually t o quantify anticipated impacts. Despite t h i s fairly narrow scope, two g e n e r a l conclusions e m e r g e :
(1) Measuring t h e f u t u r e impacts of seabed mining is an extremely com- plicated and difficult endeavor. To begin with, forecasting m i n e r a l m a r k e t s 1 0 - 40 years i n t o t h e f u t u r e , even in t h e absence of seabed mining, is fraught with difficulties, although of course certain t r e n d s c a n be discerned and projected. Mineral m a r k e t s in general a r e becoming more conlpetitive over t i m e as t h e n u m b e r of major producing firms and countries increase.
Production is shifting from t h e developed t o t h e developing countries for some seabed m i n e r a l commodities, a n d from t h e developing t o t h e developed countries for o t h e r s . Long-run secular t r e n d s in real prices c a n also be identified. They a r e down for some seabed minerals, relatively c o n s t a n t for o t h e r s , a n d up for still o t h e r s . While s o m e of t h e s e past t r e n d s a r e likely t o continue i n t o t h e f u t u r e , o t h e r s will be reversed by higher energy prices, new technologies, or o t h e r developments. Forecasting which t r e n d s will continue and which will n o t is a hazardous business, where a t best only partial success can be expected.
Even if s u c h t r e n d s i n mineral m a r k e t s could be reasonably predicted, t h e a c t u a l a m o u n t of seabed mining t h a t will take place over the next 40 years is unknown. The relative costs of seabed a n d land-based production. a r e the s u b j e c t of m u c h discussion and disagreement. How scientific break- t h r o u g h s and o t h e r technological developments will a l t e r f u t u r e costs is sim- ply unkno-wn, and to sorne e x t e n t unknowable. Moreover, relative costs will not be t h e only d e t e r m i n a n t of t h e f u t u r e level of seabed mining. Industrial- ized c o u n t r i e s m a y support s u c h production t o lessen t h e i r depe:ndence on foreign producers. Distressed land-based producers may receive assistance from t h e i r own governments, and protection in the form of constraints on seabed production negotiated t h r o u g h international a g r e e m e n t s . In t h e end, seabed production m a y be influenced as m u c h by such political decisions a s economic considerations. Anticipating t h e f u t u r e course of t h e i m p o r t a n t political decisions is not easy.
Finally, even if t h e f u t u r e level of seabed mining could be ascertained, its i m p a c t s would still be difficult t o assess e z a n t e . Such assessments m a y require knowledge about s e g m e n t s of t h e long-run supply a n d demand curves far f r o m t h e observed price a n d o u t p u t equilibria of t h e past, which limits t h e use of econometric and o t h e r quantitative techniques. Nor is it clear how these curves will shift over t h e next several decades in response t o resource
depletion, technological progress, t h e introduction of new materials, changes ing while alleviating t h e adverse conseqliences. In considering this question, two distinct lines of r e s e a r c h , which could be c a r r i e d o u t separately, appear
The expected impact of technological progress and learning by doing on future costs would have t o be assessed, and the findings compared with those of marginal land-based producers. The conclusions regarding t h e potential profitability of seabed mining would t h e n have to be adjusted for possible sub- demand curves for cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel, a n d of t h e long-run supply curves from land-based production for these commodities. Not only is a b e t t e r picture needed of these curves a s they exist today, b u t also of how they a r e likely to evolve in t h e future. Econometric models a n d other quanti- tative techniques can provide some of t h e information needed. In particular, if properly specified, they can document the n a t u r e of t h e c u r r e n t supply and these and other studies, s e e references cited in Adams (1980).
nodules, a considerable a m o u n t of qualitative information is available from metallurgists, m a r k e t analysts, mining engineers, and o t h e r specialists t h a t can be used t o piece together a picture of t h e long-run m i n e r a l supply and demand c u r v e s . The challenge lies i n identifying and collecting t h e p e r t i n e n t qualitative information, integrating i t with feasible quantitative analyses, and t h e n analyzing and i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e results in an appropriate m a n n e r . Here judgment and skill, as well a s diligence, a r e essential.
Moreover, given t h e qualitative components of s u c h analysis, i t m u s t be recognized t h a t no universally accepted statistical m e a s u r e s or rigorous rules exist for assessing t h e reliability or accuracy of t h e findings. Judg- m e n t s regarding assumptions and interpretation m u s t be m a d e , a n d will inev- itably be called into question.
Such problems, however, bedevil all important a n d still unresolved issues. Otherwise, t h e r e s e a r c h required would long since have been c a r r i e d out.
28
APPENDM: SEABED NODULE MLNING AND MINERAL
TRADE
PAlTERNSThe preceding enquiry examines r e c e n t trends and t h e potential effects of seabed mining in t h r e e areas - mineral prices and production costs, t h e location of mining, and the benefits f r o m mineral production and trade. This appendix, prepared after the original study was completed, extends t h a t analysis by examining the possible impact of seabed mining on mineral trade patterns. The first section considers past t r e n d s in the patterns of trade for cobalt, copper, manganese and nickel; and the second t h e possible conse- quences of seabed mining on t h e future evolution of these patterns.
k 1 Recent Trends
A trade pattern reflects t h e geographic flow of a particular commodity in international trade, and is defined by a matrix whose elements measure t h e amount of trade between each exporting a n d importing country over a given period of time such as a year. For example, trade matrices prepared by Fischman (1980) for copper in 1976 and manganese in 1975, a t several stages of production, a r e shown in the Tables A1-A7. Similar tables, based on t h e work of Hubbard (1975), portray the trade p a t t e r n s for semiprocessed nickel in 1970 and refined nickel in 1972. Comparable tables for cobalt are not avail- able, because the necessary information on international trade in this com- modity has not been collected and published.
Historically, trade patterns have been largely ignored in the economic literature. This is in p a r t because traditional international trade theory has focused primarily on comparative advantage and its underlying deter- minants. In t h e process, i t h a s abstracted from transportation costs and the other factors affecting t h e choice of trading partners. There a r e , of course, exceptions. Location theory and a n u m b e r of linear programming studies, for instance, have explicitly considered t h e flow of trade between particular countries. These efforts generally assume t h a t t h e desire to minimize tran- sportation costs dictates the p a t t e r n of trade.
In recent years, however, a n u m b e r of studies (Dorr 1975, Hubbard 1975, Santos 1976, Whitney 1976, Tilton 1966, Demler and Tilton 1980) have called into question the assumption t h a t transportation costs constitute the only, or even t h e m o s t important, determinant of trade flows of copper, manganese, nickel, and other mineral commodities (though not cobalt, as the necessary trade data are not available). These studies find t h a t :
(1) International ownership ties, and t h e multinational mining corpora- tions responsible for these ties, greatly shape t h e pattern of mineral t r a d e , often in directions t h a t a r e inconsistent with minimizing transportation costs. Their influence is particularly apparent for mineral commodities a t
early stages of production, such as t h e ore and concentrate stage. This gen- eral conclusion is found to hold for trade in blister copper, manganese ore, and semiprocessed nickel, though somewhat surprisingly, not for copper ore and concentrate.
(2) Political blocs, such as t h e British Commonwealth, the French Com- munity, and the commercial, cultural, and other ties they have created over the years among member countries, also influence t h e s t r u c t u r e of mineral trade. In contrast to ownership ties, however, they a r e most important for trade in refined metal products, and have much less influence on trade a t earlier stages of production. This general conclusion holds for blister and refined copper as well as for refined nickel. It may be valid as well for fer- romanganese and refined cobalt, though existing studies have not examined these particular products.
(3) The presence of a common border stimulates trade between neigh- boring countries, again primarily a t the refined metal stage of production, significantly more than can be attributed to the relatively low transportation costs between such countries. Apparently, neighboring countries often share common business customs and possess other mutual attributes t h a t stimu- late trade between t h e m . This particular determinant of trade patterns is significant for both refined copper and refined nickel, the two commodities found in seabed nodules whose trade patterns have been analyzed a t the refined metal stage of production.
With respect t o trends over t i m e , some evidence exists to suggest t h a t the influence of ownership ties has been declining. For several reasons, this finding is not particularly surprising. Over the last two decades, t h e mines and processing facilities of multinational mining companies in a number of developing countries have been nationalized, and a r e now operated by state- owned enterprises. Secondly, the nature of financing mineral veritures has changed over the last two decades. In the early years after World War 11, most new projects were developed and entirely owned by a single major multina- tional mining corporation. The 1960s saw a shift towards project financing, where several firms collaborate in developing new ventures. They share the equity investment, and borrow a large portion of the total development costs from banks and other lending organizations. Such financial arrangements are likely over time to reduce t h e importance of intra-firm shipments in international trade. Finally, the influence of Japan on trade patterns has grown a s mineral imports into t h a t country have increased with its rapid economic development. Traditionally, Japan has relied less on ownership ties and more on long-term contracts than other industrialized countries to ensure its import needs.
Focusing specifically on the four principal mineral commodities con- tained in seabed nodules, one finds t h e evidence supporting a decline in the importance of ownership ties more tenuous. For copper, no trend is discern- able a t t h e ore an.d concentrate stage (where, as noted earlier, ownership ties have n o t been significant) or a t the blister stage (where ownership ties have been and remain important). Only a t t h e refined metal stage h a s the
influence of ownership t i e s waned over t i m e (Whitney 1976). In nickel, s u c h t i e s s h a p e d t r a d e p a t t e r n s i n t h e early postwar period a t both t h e semipro- cessed a n d refined m e t a l stages of production, a n d t h e y have continued t o d o so in r e c e n t years (Hubbard 1975).
One would also expect t o find t h e influence of political blocs declining, reflecting t h e dissolution over t h e l a s t 30 y e a r s of t h e major political e m p i r e s . Surprisingly, t h e available s t u d i e s provide little or n o evidence t o s u p p o r t t h i s expectation. Apparently, t h e t i e s established during t h e colonial period to encourage t r a d e among m e m b e r c o u n t r i e s persist long a f t e r formal political bonds a r e severed. Likewise, t h e studies find l i t t l e c h a n g e over t i m e i n t h e i m p o r t a n c e of neighboring c o u n t r i e s in s t i m u l a t i n g t r a d e . Where t h i s f a c t o r was significant in t h e past, i t r e m a i n s so today.
For m a n y mineral commodities, however, one i m p o r t a n t c h a n g e h a s clearly o c c u r r e d : t h e n u m b e r of a c t u a l a n d potential t r a d e p a r t n e r s available t o both importing a n d exporting c o u n t r i e s h a s increased. This development, in a n u m b e r of cases, h a s reduced t h e vulnerability of c o u n t r i e s t o a n i n t e r - r u p t i o n i n t r a d e with any particular p a r t n e r . I t h a s taken place, i n p a r t , because a n u m b e r of new producers have e n t e r e d m i n e r a l production
-
Cuba i n cobalt, Indonesia a n d Papua New Guinea in copper, Gabon in m a n g a n e s e , a n d t h e Philippines, Dominican Republic, and Botswana i n nickel. In addition, J a p a n a n d a n u m b e r of European s t a t e s have become i m p o r t a n t i m p o r t e r s . In m o r e r e c e n t y e a r s , rapid economic growth in s o m e of t h e developing coun- t r i e s h a s m a d e t h e m significant i m p o r t e r s a s well.This review of t h e available l i t e r a t u r e on m i n e r a l t r a d e p a t t e r n s does n o t suggest a rapid decline in t h e influence of i n t e r n a t i o n a l ownership ties, politi- c a l blocs, a n d neighboring c o u n t r y effects on m i n e r a l t r a d e p a t t e r n s . Along with t r a n s p o r t a t i o n costs, t h e s e factors a r e likely t o shape t h e flow of m i n e r a l t r a d e for s o m e time i n t o t h e f u t u r e . In t h e process, t h e y will c o n t i n u e t o i n t r o d u c e a c e r t a i n a m o u n t of rigidity i n t o t h e s t r u c t u r e of t r a d e . On t h e o t h e r hand., if t h e p a s t is a reliable guide t o t h e f u t u r e , t h e n u m b e r of poten- tial t r a d i n g p a r t n e r s for m a n y m i n e r a l commodities is likely t o grow a s new producers begin exporting and a s developing consuming s t a t e s become i m p o r t a n t i m p o r t e r s .
These expectations a s s u m e t h a t past t r e n d s
-
o r lack of t r e n d s-
rvill c o n t i n u e i n t o t h e f u t u r e , and t h a t n o major s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e will s u b s t a n - tially t r a n s f o r m t h e m i n e r a l industries. However, i n t h e c a s e of cobalt, copper, m a n g a n e s e , a n d nickel, seabed mining raises t h e possibility of s u c h a s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e , and i t is t o t h e possible i m p a c t s on m i n e r a l t r a d e p a t t e r n s of t h i s development t h a t we now t u r n .A2 The Impact of Seabed Nodule Mining
The potential consequences of seabed nodule mining for m i n e r a l t r a d e p a t t e r n s , a s was t h e c a s e for prices and production c o s t s , t h e location of min- ing, a n d t h e distribution of costs and benefits, r a n g e over a wide s p e c t r u m of possibilities. A t one e x t r e m e , t r a d e p a t t e r n s will obviously be completely unaffected if no seabed mining occurs during t h e period 1995-2020. A t t h e
o t h e r e x t r e m e , t r a d e p a t t e r n s could be radically a l t e r e d .
More specifically, seabed nodule mining, if i t o c c u r s , will introduce new t r a d e flows as production begins a t new s o u r c e s of supply. This should, a t l e a s t initially, i n c r e a s e t h e n u m b e r of a c t u a l and potential trading p a r t n e r s for importing c o u n t r i e s , a n d s o c o n t i n u e t h e t r e n d in t h i s direction t h a t h a s c h a r a c t e r i z e d t h e l a s t 30 years. Over t h e longer t e r m , however, seabed min- ing could r e d u c e , r a t h e r t h a n i n c r e a s e , t h e geographic diversity of s o u r c e s of mineral supplies, if s e a b e d mining proves less expensive t h a n m a n y land- based s o u r c e s of supply. Such a development would c o n c e n t r a t e mineral pro- duction a t s e a a n d a t a few high-quality land-based deposits, increasing t h e vulnerability of consuming c o u n t r i e s t o i n t e r r u p t i o n s in t r a d e from any par- t i c u l a r s o u r c e .
In addition, seabed mining may weaken t h e influence of political blocs and neighboring count.ry effects on t r a d e p a t t e r n s if i t replaces land-based production, a s clearly n e i t h e r of t h e s e factors will shape t h e flow of t r a d e from seabed sources. Political t i e s , however, could still play a n i m p o r t a n t role, t h o u g h i n a different way, a s some consuming c o u n t r i e s may b e prepared t o provide p r o t e c t e d m a r k e t s a n d i n o t h e r ways t o subsidize seabed production by t h e i r own firms o r s t a t e e n t e r p r i s e s i n o r d e r t o r e d u c e depen- dence o n foreign producers for needed m i n e r a l i m p o r t s .
The rigidities i n t r o d u c e d into t r a d e p a t t e r n s by i n t e r n a t i o n a l ownership ties could also be s t r e n g t h e n e d by seabed mining. This is particularly likely for t r a d e a t early s t a g e s of production
-
namely, in nodules - a s e a c h consor- tia planning t o engage in seabed mining is expected t o have i t s own land- based processing facilities t o which i t will ship i t s nodules.Finally, i t should be noted t h a t t h e i m p a c t of seabed mining on t r a d e p a t t e r n s m a y vary considerably for different m i n e r a l commodit.ies. For example, several mining operations a t sea could greatly r e d u c e t h e land- based production of cobalt, a n d in t h e process diminish t h e diversity of s u p - ply for t h i s commodity. The s a m e level of seabed production, by c o n t r a s t , would have only a m o d e s t i.mpact o n copper mining from land-based deposits, a n d s o would likely e n h a n c e , r a t h e r t h a n r e d u c e , t h e geographic diversity of s o u r c e s for this commodity. Given t h e m i n e r a l composition of nodules a n d t h e relative size of t h e m a r k e t for nickel, t h e i m p a c t on land-based nickel production a n d t h e consequences for i t s diversity of supply would b e g r e a t e r t h a n i n t h e case of copper, b u t less t h a n i n t h e case of cobalt. For m a n - g a n e s e , s e a b e d production even a t a modest level will have a s u b s t a n t i a l i m p a c t o n t r a d e p a t t e r n s if this m i n e r a l commodity is actually recovered.
However, a s is well known, m a n y of t h e consortia contemplating t h e mining of seabed nodules a r e n o t now planning t o e x t r a c t a n d m a r k e t t h e m a n g a n e s e they c o n t a i n .
TABLE A1 Estimated distribution of world t r a d e i n copper ores and concentrates. 1976 (percentage of total t r a d e , m e t a l ont tent).^
Importers Japan
FRG
u
SSpain Sweden Belgium USSR Bulgaria Other Total
Exporters Canada
P h i l i p pines
16.7 0.3
3.2 1.2
Papua
NG Chile Indonesia Aus-
tralia Zaire Norway 3.6 3.0
1.9 1.7
0.2
South
Mricab Other Total
a ~ e p o r t e d Cu content used wherever possible. For other countries Cu content was estimated from gross weights.
b~ncluding Namibia (SW Africa).
'~quates to total exports of 1204000 metric tons.
S u r c e : Fischman (1980, Table 3-9).
TABLE A2 Estimated distribution of world trade in unreflned copper. 1976 (percen- tane of total trade).a
Exporters South
Importers Zaire Chile Africab Peru FRG Zambia Other Total Belgium
FRG UK LTS China Japan Yugoslavia Spain Other Total
a~ncludes secondary blister copper.
b~ncludes Namibia (SW Africa).
'~quates to total exports of 825000 metric tons.
Sburce: Fischman (1980. Table 3-10).
A
TABLE A4 Estimated distribution of world trade in manganese ore, 1 9 7 5 ~ (percentages based on bin contentLb
South Aus- Undistributed
Importers Africa Gabon tralia Ghana Zaire Morocco Brazil Mexico India or other Total
us
Japan FRG France UK Italy Netherlands Belgium/
Luxemburg Sweden Spain Norway Canada Other Total
Note: Detail may not add to totals. owing to rounding.
a ~ e p r e s e n t s total imports of developed countries (87% of total world imports) blncludes ores with 10% or greater manganese content.
'~quates to imports cf 4 003 000 metric tcns.
S u r c e : Fischman (1980. Table 3-3).
TABLE A5 E s t i m a t e d d i s t r i b u t i o n of world t r a d e i n f e r r o m a n g a n e s e . 1 9 7 5 ~ ( p e r c e n t a g e s b a s e d o n g r o s s / n e t q u a n t i t i e s ) . b
E x p o r t e r s S o u t h B e l g i u m /
I m ~ o r t e r s F r a n c e Norway Africa L u x e m b u r g FRG J a ~ a n US S ~ a i n India O t h e r Total
us
FRG Italy Belgium/
L u x e m b u r g F r a n c e N e t h e r l a n d s
UK
Sweden D e n m a r k Austria C a n a d a Turkey U n d e t e r m i n e d a n d o t h e r Total
Note: Figures may not add to totals, owing to rounding.
a ~ e p r e s e n t s total ferromanganese trade of "developed" countries. Includes developed countries' trade to and from ';peveloping" and Eastern European countries, if applicable.
Average manganese content varies only within narrow limits (75-78%).
C ~ q u a t e s to total imports of 1030 000 metric tons.
Source: Fischman (1980. Table 3 4 ) .
TABLE A 8 Estimated distribution of world trade in semiprocessed nickel. 1 9 7 0 ~ ' ~ (percentage of total trade, metal content).
Exporters New
Importers Canada Indonesia Caledonia Australia OtherC Total
UK 1 5 . 8 15.8
Norway 1 8 . 4 ~ 18.4
Japan 3.9 45.8 49.7
France 5.5 3.6 e 9.1
Canada 1.7 4.7 6 . 4
Other 0.6 0.6
Total 38.1 5 . 5 51.7 4.7 100. of
&Trade involving t h e socialist countries. including Cuba, is excluded.
b ~ e m i p r o c e s s e d nickel, measured in t e r m s of metal content, encompasses ore, matte, con- c e n t r a t e , and oxide.
C ~ r a z i l , Zimbabwe, South Africa, Finland, Burma, and Morocco may have exported semipro- cessed nickel in 1970; however, little i s known about these possible t r a d e flows except that
ey were very small.
%his material was refined and t h e n re-exported.
e ~ a p a n imported some nickel concentrate from Australia; t h e amount is unknown but resumed t o be small.
'Total trade equalled 230000 metric tons of contained nickel.
Sburce: Hubbard (1975, Table 2).
TABLE A7 E s t i m a t e d d i s t r i b u t i o n of world t r a d e i n r e f i n e d nickel. 1 9 7 2 ~ ~ ~ ( p e r c e n t a g e of t o t a l t r a d e ) .
New S o u t h
I m p o r t e r s C a n a d a Norway UK F r a n c e Caledonia Australia Africa O t h e r Total US
FRG Belgium/
L u x e m b u r g N e t h e r l a n d s F r a n c e
Italy UK Sweden J a p a n O t h e r Total
a ~ e f i n e d nickel, measured in t e r m s of metal content. includes all products, including ferroniclt:l, at h e last stage before industrial use.
'Trade involvinn the socialist countries is excluded.
' ~ o t a l trade equalled 272009 metric tons.
Sburce: Hubbard (1975, Table 9).
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